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2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)最新文献

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Modelling unexpected failures with a hierarchical Bayesian model 用层次贝叶斯模型对意外故障进行建模
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-19 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272809
Zhiguo Zeng, E. Zio
{"title":"Modelling unexpected failures with a hierarchical Bayesian model","authors":"Zhiguo Zeng, E. Zio","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272809","url":null,"abstract":"Systems, especially those in the design and development phase, frequently suffer from unexpected failures, which are caused by insufficient knowledge of the system failure processes. In this paper, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian reliability model that account for unexpected failures. For this, the sample space of all failures is broken down into subspaces of expected failures and unexpected failures. The overall reliability is, then, derived based on the total probability theorem. A Bayesian network model is developed to explicitly compute the probability of unexpected failures. A single board computer reliability analysis is considered and the results show that neglecting unexpected failures overestimates the reliability.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116834604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Failure mechanism behavior and reliability of non-repairable system with functional dependence 具有功能依赖的不可修复系统的失效机制、行为和可靠性
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272816
Xiaoyong Yu, Ying Chen, R. Kang
{"title":"Failure mechanism behavior and reliability of non-repairable system with functional dependence","authors":"Xiaoyong Yu, Ying Chen, R. Kang","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272816","url":null,"abstract":"In the case of system with function dependent behavior, the failure of one component will cause dependent components within the system to become unusable or workable, and the state of failure mechanisms of dependent components will be changed. Reliability study of functional dependence has never refer to failure mechanism level. This paper use a reliability evaluation method considering failure mechanism behavior in components with functional dependence, which includes the second type of trigger and suspension. FMT and FDEP gate are used to express the failure mechanism behavior. A case study is utilized to illustrate the failure mechanism behavior in system, a BDD model of system and some reliability curves are obtained at the end of this paper.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115751707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Task human reliability analysis for a safe operation of autonomous ship 自主船舶安全运行任务人的可靠性分析
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272800
A. Allal, K. Mansouri, Mohammed Qbadou, M. Youssfi
{"title":"Task human reliability analysis for a safe operation of autonomous ship","authors":"A. Allal, K. Mansouri, Mohammed Qbadou, M. Youssfi","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272800","url":null,"abstract":"The human errors are considered as the major contributor to the marine accidental events. The implementation of autonomous ship (AS) in the maritime industry, might be considered as a future alternative to reduce these human errors. However, this type of ship will create new vulnerabilities and paths to failure even as it provides benefits on other scores. When the AS is in the port, a maintenance staff embarks on board, to carry out the scheduled routine maintenance or requested repairs. Mistakes made by the maintenance staff may have fatal consequences on the safety of the AS. The wrong way of sea chest strainer cleanness is one of the causals that has contributed to several engine room water ingresses, causing a complete damage of the engine room equipment of many conventional ships. In this paper, we analyze and model this event sequence from a human perspective. Technical methodologies i.e. human reliability analysis (HRA) event tree is used for the identification of the vulnerabilities of the task procedure and the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) is used for the quantification of these human errors probability. Based on this analysis, error barriers and error recovery mechanisms are proposed to prevent its consequences.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123286064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Barrier status panel: Tool for barrier management 屏障状态面板:屏障管理工具
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272858
Zahid Nawaz, P. Jain
{"title":"Barrier status panel: Tool for barrier management","authors":"Zahid Nawaz, P. Jain","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272858","url":null,"abstract":"In the area of Barrier Management, it is very imperative to identify and manage all the critical barrier elements, related to the barrier functions, which further are kept in place to avoid major accident hazards identified for any oil and gas facility. Barrier status panel is a web based tool which helps to monitor and verify the barriers at all times. This is an integrated platform where all the conditions, which can impair a barrier, are visualized from the barrier element level to the overall risk picture. This ensures safe operation and robust barriers throughout the lifecycle of the petroleum facility.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114139870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Epistemic uncertainty propagation in a Weibull environment for a two-core system-on-chip 双核片上系统的威布尔环境中的认知不确定性传播
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272875
Riccardo Pinciroli, A. Bobbio, Cristiana Boichini, Davide Cerotti, M. Gribaudo, A. Miele, Kishor S. Trivedi
{"title":"Epistemic uncertainty propagation in a Weibull environment for a two-core system-on-chip","authors":"Riccardo Pinciroli, A. Bobbio, Cristiana Boichini, Davide Cerotti, M. Gribaudo, A. Miele, Kishor S. Trivedi","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272875","url":null,"abstract":"Epistemic uncertainty analysis accounts for inaccurate input parameters and evaluates how such uncertainty propagates to output measures. In this work we will focus on Weibull distributions, in particular the one related to the reliability of multi-core systems-on-chips. We focus on a two-core system in which, when one of the cores fails, the other can take care of all the systems' tasks. However, this results in an increased operational temperature that leads to a reduced lifetime. We first discuss the epistemic uncertainty distribution that we expect when we estimate the scale parameter of a Weibull distribution from a limited set of samples. We then extend the procedure to consider the epistemic uncertainty in the two core system-on-chip when we can measure the failure times of the first and of the second core.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127031536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Accelerated-compensated degradation modeling based on synthesized-stress enhancement test data 基于综合应力增强试验数据的加速补偿退化建模
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272832
N. Yang, Jing Feng, Tianyu Liu, Zhengqiang Pan, Jieru Meng
{"title":"Accelerated-compensated degradation modeling based on synthesized-stress enhancement test data","authors":"N. Yang, Jing Feng, Tianyu Liu, Zhengqiang Pan, Jieru Meng","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272832","url":null,"abstract":"At present, the reliability enhancement test (RET) data are not used adequately in the field, and are utilized to determine the limits of stress in most cases. However, the RET data which may contain abundant information of products are obtained in complex stress environment with a duration of test time. Thus, an accelerated-compensated degradation modeling method is proposed to describe the feature of RET data which are collected under temperature step stress and vibration constant stress. The model proposed is validated by using the reliability enhancement test data of a certain type of servo system. For the small sample problem, the parameter bootstrap method is used to verify the model validity. Using the enhancement test data to carry out degradation modeling, not only makes full use of data mining information, but also lays the foundation for the subsequent product reliability assessment, shortens the development time and saves the cost of degradation test.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127904331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Failure mode and effects analysis of CNC machine tools based on SPA 基于SPA的数控机床故障模式及影响分析
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272804
Tongtong Jin, Chuanhai Chen, Lei Chen, H. Tian, Dong Zhu, Xu Jia
{"title":"Failure mode and effects analysis of CNC machine tools based on SPA","authors":"Tongtong Jin, Chuanhai Chen, Lei Chen, H. Tian, Dong Zhu, Xu Jia","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272804","url":null,"abstract":"To reduce the analysis error for highly subjective scoring and unilateral evaluation in traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for machine tools, a modified FMEA is presented based on set pair analysis (SPA) to which two indicators called M and R are added. In this process, risk priority number (RPN) can be calculated through the connection degree of SPA after the failure mode and evaluation indicator of each mode have been determined. Finally, the most serious failure mode can be determined. Taking a tool magazine and automatic tool changer (ATC) as an example, the feasibility of the proposed FMEA is demonstrated.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124566207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
A unified expression of Gompertz and logistic curves and its discretization Gompertz曲线和logistic曲线的统一表达式及其离散化
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272864
Mitsuhisa Kimura, S. Fujisawa, S. Inoue
{"title":"A unified expression of Gompertz and logistic curves and its discretization","authors":"Mitsuhisa Kimura, S. Fujisawa, S. Inoue","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272864","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272864","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we newly propose a generalized growth curve model of discrete type, which is based on the property of the Gompertz and logistic curve models. In particular, the bi-linearization technique is applied to the basic differential equation, and we discretize it to the difference equations so as to hold the property of integrable systems. These models can be used to predict the future behavior of the time series data by estimating the constant parameters included in the model. In the numerical examples, we analyze the actual data sets by using our model, and also we show the confidence intervals of the estimated growth curve via the bootstrap method.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114752603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Physics-based predictive assessment and domination of uncertainties: The RelySoft method and software tool 基于物理的预测评估和不确定性控制:RelySoft方法和软件工具
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272823
Roberto Paggi, G. Mariotti, Anna Paggi, Giovanni De Gasperis
{"title":"Physics-based predictive assessment and domination of uncertainties: The RelySoft method and software tool","authors":"Roberto Paggi, G. Mariotti, Anna Paggi, Giovanni De Gasperis","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272823","url":null,"abstract":"Often there is in-depth criticism of random sampling models, such as the Poisson series, for computing the prediction of the behavior of physical systems in operation. In this work we introduce a new method called RelySoft alternative to Monte Carlo and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to examine the influence of uncertainties inherent to a physical process in order to calculate the success probability of the same physical process and eventually its evolution over time. The method is based on the introduction of a set of functions and operator over probability distributions; the method has no limits to the number of parameters and allows for the uncertainties of the exponents appearing in equations. Two examples are reported concerning aero-spatial field: a time-independent and a time-dependent case studies.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122039376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Modeling and analysis of cluster of failures in redundant systems 冗余系统故障簇的建模与分析
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272806
Candemir Çigsar, Y. Lim
{"title":"Modeling and analysis of cluster of failures in redundant systems","authors":"Candemir Çigsar, Y. Lim","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272806","url":null,"abstract":"Redundancy is an important method to improve the reliability of repairable systems. In this paper, we consider clustering of failures in redundant systems due to parallel type of carryover effects, in which the event intensity of a recurrent event process is temporarily increased after event occurrences in other processes. Our main goal is to develop formal test procedures for the assessment of such effects in redundant systems with repairable components connected in parallel and subject to recurrent failures. We develop partial score tests for testing the presence of parallel carryover effects in recurrent event settings. Asymptotic properties of the test statistics are discussed analytically as well as through simulations. A simulated data set including failure times of diesel power generators operating in remote and isolated communities is analyzed to illustrate the methods developed.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124851936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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