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2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)最新文献

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The energy management and optimization strategy for fuel cell hybrid ships 燃料电池混合动力船舶能量管理与优化策略
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272834
Daogui Tang, E. Zio, Yupeng Yuan, Jiangbin Zhao, Xin-ping Yan
{"title":"The energy management and optimization strategy for fuel cell hybrid ships","authors":"Daogui Tang, E. Zio, Yupeng Yuan, Jiangbin Zhao, Xin-ping Yan","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272834","url":null,"abstract":"With the environment pollution being serious, the fuel cell hybrid system is attracting more and more attention. Compared with single energy system, the hybrid power sources enhance the complexity of the system, thus a proper energy management strategy is necessary for keeping the system safe and reliable. Based on the analysis of the fuel cell and ultra-capacitor hybrid system, the wavelet-transform and rule based energy management strategy is proposed and verified by establishing the hybrid system model and simulation in Matlab/Simulink. The result shows that the proposed strategy can lever the characteristics of the different power sources and keep the state of charge of the ultra-capacitor in normal level.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134233356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Reliability modelling and assessment by joint consideration of Petri nets and gamma deterioration processes 联合考虑Petri网和伽玛退化过程的可靠性建模和评估
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272797
Grâce Boyer, N. Brînzei, P. Do, J. Pétin
{"title":"Reliability modelling and assessment by joint consideration of Petri nets and gamma deterioration processes","authors":"Grâce Boyer, N. Brînzei, P. Do, J. Pétin","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272797","url":null,"abstract":"This article develops a new approach that integrates the gamma processes in Petri nets for modeling stochastic deterioration. In the area of reliability, it was shown that gamma processes are able to describe the physical degradation of components and, so, their importance in safety evaluation has been proved by many previous researches. First, a mathematical overview of the gamma process is given along with basic examples. Furthermore, a model of the gamma process on the basis of Petri nets is developed followed by an estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) and the reliability of a single component. In this work, we propose to consider two cases for the estimation of the RUL: with and without knowledge of the level of degradation. Due to the knowledge of the degradation level, the evaluation of the reliability can be different and results are compared between them. Finally, a discussion about the application of both gamma process and Petri nets for describing the system behavior and its reliability assessment is presented explaining the value of the model in the current and the future industrial problems.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"17 12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134238739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A framework for multi-hazards risk aggregation considering risk model maturity levels 考虑风险模型成熟度的多危害风险聚合框架
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272859
Tasneem Bani-Mustafa, Zhiguo Zeng, E. Zio, D. Vasseur
{"title":"A framework for multi-hazards risk aggregation considering risk model maturity levels","authors":"Tasneem Bani-Mustafa, Zhiguo Zeng, E. Zio, D. Vasseur","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272859","url":null,"abstract":"Multi-Hazards Risk Aggregation (MHRA) aggregates risk over different risk contributors and provides a final risk index that permits the comparison with safety guidelines to support Decision Making (DM). Maturity of the risk analysis are always different for different risk contributors, resulting in different degrees of confidence on the associated results. The difference in maturity, and the sources of heterogeneity that cause such differences, should be taken into account for supporting a reliable and accurate representation of risk in respect of DM. In this paper, we first propose a hierarchical framework to evaluate the level of maturity of risk assessments in respect of DM. The framework consists of different attributes (uncertainty, conservatism, knowledge and sensitivity) and sub-attributes (availability of data, consistency of data, data reliability, experience, and value ladenness) that are believed to determine the level of maturity of a risk assessment. Evaluation guidelines are pre-defined for facilitating the attributes scoring process. Then, the maturity level is integrated in MHRA by developing a two-dimensional risk aggregation method. Finally, a numerical case study for the MHRA of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is carried out to show the applicability and the plausibility of the methods.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121653369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Model ensemble-based prognostic framework for fatigue crack growth prediction 基于模型集成的疲劳裂纹扩展预测框架
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272843
Hoang-Phuong Nguyen, E. Zio, Jie Liu
{"title":"Model ensemble-based prognostic framework for fatigue crack growth prediction","authors":"Hoang-Phuong Nguyen, E. Zio, Jie Liu","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272843","url":null,"abstract":"The demand for online fatigue crack growth prognosis has recently increased in industry in order to prevent severe unexpected failures in equipment operated in evolving conditions where static models may no longer perform well. To address this issue, a robust prognostic framework is presented in this paper to assess the reliability of deteriorating equipment due to fatigue crack growth. In this framework, a new model ensemble methodology that integrates multiple stochastic crack growth models based on the quadratic best-worst weighted voting (QBWWV) is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, a case study concerning fatigue crack growth is demonstrated. The results indicate that the proposed prognostic framework outperforms single crack growth models in terms of prediction accuracy under evolving operating conditions.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127025686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A hybrid Monte Carlo and possibilistic approach to estimate non-suppression probability in fire probabilistic safety analysis 火灾概率安全分析中不灭火概率估计的混合蒙特卡罗和可能性方法
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-19 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272881
Wei Wang, F. D. Di Maio, P. Baraldi, E. Zio
{"title":"A hybrid Monte Carlo and possibilistic approach to estimate non-suppression probability in fire probabilistic safety analysis","authors":"Wei Wang, F. D. Di Maio, P. Baraldi, E. Zio","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272881","url":null,"abstract":"In Fire Probabilistic Safety Analysis (FPSA), the non-suppression probability (that quantifies the likelihood that the installed protection system fails to protect the target from fire) is typically estimated using predefined detection-suppression event trees, that are expected to cover uncertainties with conservatism. In this study, a hybrid Monte Carlo (MC) and possibilistic approach is proposed for uncertainty propagation and effective quantification of a protection system non-suppression probability. In particular, aleatory uncertainty is represented by probabilistic distributions and treated by MC sampling, whereas, epistemic uncertainty of human behavior by means of possibility distributions. The approach is applied to a switchgear room of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Uncertain responsiveness of the fire protection system is integrated into a detection-suppression event tree, allowing for a clearer modeling interpretation and a more accurate failure probability estimate.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122526436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
System reliability-redundancy allocation by evolutionary computation 基于进化计算的系统可靠性冗余分配
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-19 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272790
M. Mellal, E. Zio
{"title":"System reliability-redundancy allocation by evolutionary computation","authors":"M. Mellal, E. Zio","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272790","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the system reliability-redundancy allocation problem by resorting to three evolutionary computation methods, namely genetic algorithm, cuckoo optimization algorithm with penalty function, and penalty guided stochastic fractal search. The numerical results are compared in order to highlight the differences in the solution methods.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114976165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Adaptive artificial neural networks for seismic fragility analysis 地震易损性分析的自适应人工神经网络
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-19 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272857
Zhiyin Wang, I. Zentner, N. Pedroni, E. Zio
{"title":"Adaptive artificial neural networks for seismic fragility analysis","authors":"Zhiyin Wang, I. Zentner, N. Pedroni, E. Zio","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272857","url":null,"abstract":"In seismic probabilistic risk assessment, fragility curves are used to estimate the probability of failure of a structure or its critical components at given values of seismic intensity measures, e.g. the peak ground acceleration. However, the computation of the fragility curves requires a large number of time-consuming mechanical simulations with the finite element method (FEM). To reduce the computational cost, in this paper a statistical metamodel based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) is constructed to replace the FEM model. An adaptive ANNs learning strategy, aimed at prioritizing the data close to the limit state of the structures, is proposed in order to improve the design of experiments for the fragility analysis. The adaptive learning strategy is developed and tested on a nonlinear Takeda oscillator.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128769636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Optimizing the resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems against intentional attacks 优化相互依赖的基础设施系统抵御故意攻击的弹性
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-19 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272798
Yiping Fang, E. Zio
{"title":"Optimizing the resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems against intentional attacks","authors":"Yiping Fang, E. Zio","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272798","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a defender-attacker-defender (DAD) model for the resilience optimization of interdependent critical infrastructures (CIs) against intentional at-tacks. In the outer level, the system defender identifies the components to be hardened in order to reduce the damage associated with the worst case attack. In the middle level, the attacker disrupts the system to inflict maximum damage. In the inner level, the defender responds to the attack to minimize the consequence of the attack by optimal operation of the system. A recently developed decomposition-based two-layer cutting plane algorithm is adopted to solve the proposed model. A case of interdependent power and water systems is presented to show the proposed model.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127912237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
A dynamic weighting ensemble approach for wind energy production prediction 风电产量预测的动态加权集合方法
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-19 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272838
S. Al-Dahidi, P. Baraldi, E. Zio, Edoardo Legnani
{"title":"A dynamic weighting ensemble approach for wind energy production prediction","authors":"S. Al-Dahidi, P. Baraldi, E. Zio, Edoardo Legnani","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272838","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we propose a method to predict wind energy production. The method is based on an ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which receive in input weather forecast variables and predict the wind plant energy production. We investigate different strategies for aggregating the outcomes of the individual models of the ensemble and compare them with a real dataset. A dynamic weighting ensemble which combines the individual models outcomes proportionally to their local performances in the neighborhood of the test pattern under analysis is found to provide the most accurate predictions.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131970010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
A benchmark of dynamic reliability methods for probabilistic safety assessment 概率安全评估中动态可靠性方法的基准
2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS) Pub Date : 2017-12-19 DOI: 10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272801
Xiaolei Pan, F. Maio, E. Zio
{"title":"A benchmark of dynamic reliability methods for probabilistic safety assessment","authors":"Xiaolei Pan, F. Maio, E. Zio","doi":"10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272801","url":null,"abstract":"Various dynamic reliability methods have been developed during the last several decades, such as Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, Dynamic Event Tree (DET) and Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree (MCDET) methods, to name a few. This paper benchmarks these particular methods by applying them to a classic level control dynamic system and to a realistic Emergency and Standby Power System (ESPS). The analysis is done with respect to different component aging dynamics and transition rate state dependences. Efficiency and computational cost are evaluated. The results show that: (1) the dynamic methods indeed are capable of capturing the effects of the dynamics in the process; (2) DET can model the possible accidental sequences, but at a large computational cost; (3) accurate modelling of sequences with low probabilities of occurrence can be achieved by the MCDET method.","PeriodicalId":161789,"journal":{"name":"2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS)","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127088018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
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