Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres最新文献

{"title":"The Construction of 20-year Daily Surface Albedo Along PANDA Transect, Antarctica","authors":"Jiajia Jia,&nbsp;Zhaoliang Zeng,&nbsp;Biao Tian,&nbsp;Siyu Chen,&nbsp;Lijing Chen,&nbsp;Yaqiang Wang,&nbsp;Xin Wang,&nbsp;Minghu Ding","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042863","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Surface albedo, which represents the Earth's capacity to reflect solar radiation, is critical for energy balance, climate modeling, and weather forecasting. However, ground observation stations are sparsely and unevenly distributed in Antarctica, and reanalysis and satellite data often exhibit errors, making it challenging to accurately monitor surface albedo. This study integrates nine automatic weather station data along PANDA transect, ERA5-Land reanalysis, and MCD43C3 product, utilizing a dual-layer stacking ensemble approach that incorporates various machine learning algorithms, including random forest (RF), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). The results indicate that stacking model achieves the best accuracy along the 1,200 km PANDA transect from Zhongshan Station to Dome A, demonstrating high correlation (Corr = 0.939) and low error metrics (MSE = 0.004, MAE = 0.047, RMSE = 0.064). Additionally, optimal models were developed individually for each station, which provided accurate daily albedo predictions from 2004 through 2023 for nine stations in East Antarctica. Compared to albedo products such as ERA5-Land (Bias = 0.1217) and MCD43C3 (Bias = 0.0591), the data set constructed demonstrates higher accuracy with a Bias of 0.0041, underscoring the superior generalization of the machine learning models. Based on these high resolution data sets at the nine sites, it is found that the surface albedo from coast to Dome A exhibits a declining trend during 2004–2023, indicating an ongoing darkening process. This phenomenon reflects the important response and feedback of surface snow to global climate change, and the high-quality long-term data set may provide deep insights in the future application.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042863","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large-Scale Statistically Meaningful Patterns (LSMPs) Associated With Precipitation Extremes Over Northern California","authors":"Abhishekh Kumar Srivastava,&nbsp;Richard Grotjahn,&nbsp;Alan M. Rhoades,&nbsp;Paul Aaron Ullrich","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041307","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze large-scale statistically meaningful patterns (LSMPs) that precede extreme precipitation (PEx) events over Northern California (NorCal). We find LSMPs by applying k-means clustering to the two leading principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies two days before the onset, from October to March during 1948–2015. Statistical significance testing based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a minimum of four statistically distinguished LSMP clusters. The four LSMP clusters are characterized as Northwest continental negative height anomaly, Eastward positive “Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA),” Westward negative “PNA,” and Prominent Alaskan ridge. These four clusters, shown in multiple variables, evolve very differently and have differing links to the Arctic and tropical Pacific regions. Using binary forecast skill measures and a new copula-based framework for predicting PEx events, we find LSMP indices that are useful predictors of NorCal PEx events, with moisture-based variables being the best predictors of PEx events at least 6 days before the onset, and the lower atmospheric variables being better than their upper atmospheric counterparts any day in advance tested. To ensure statistical rigor, the LSMPs analyzed here (with the modified acronym) include local tests of both significance and consistency, which are not always featured in the literature on large-scale meteorological patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD041307","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143564524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Observational Constraints in Top-Down Estimation of Terrestrial Biosphere Carbon Fluxes by CO2 Concentration and Eddy Covariance Flux Measurement Based on EnSRF and CMAQ","authors":"Zhen Peng,&nbsp;Xingxia Kou,&nbsp;Shaoying Wang,&nbsp;Yu Zhang,&nbsp;Meigen Zhang,&nbsp;Fei Hu,&nbsp;Shiguang Miao,&nbsp;Junxia Dou","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041540","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Top-down methods commonly use atmospheric CO₂ concentration observations to constrain carbon source and sinks. Despite the increase in spaceborne and ground-based concentration measurements, atmospheric inversions are usually limited by uncertainties in chemical transport models (CTMs) when relating fluxes to observed CO₂ mole fractions. CO₂ eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements have been widely used to directly measure CO₂ fluxes over various ecosystems, but they have rarely been used as constraints in top-down estimations. In this study, we focused on the development of a novel fluxes assimilation scheme through direct flux observations within an Ensemble Square Root Filter assimilation framework. The assimilation scheme avoided some of complexities of concentration observation assimilations. The methodology was primarily applied to typical regions in west China, taking advantage of eight long-term ecosystem EC sites. Moreover, four sets of assimilation experiments were designed to quantify the impacts of observational constraints by flux and concentration measurements. Generally, results indicate that the monthly and hourly statistics of the a posteriori fluxes constrained by flux observations agreed well with flux measurements, demonstrating reasonable performance in seasonal and diurnal variations. Specifically, assimilation results demonstrated the advantage of a posteriori estimates inferred from flux measurements during growing season, as compared to results inferred from concentrations, while some limitation still exists in monthly budget estimates. Nevertheless, it is important to note that current results are only a mathematical optimum. CO₂ biospheric fluxes can be estimated more reliably and robustly at the regional scale given considerably more flux observations for efficient constraint.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143564518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Linkage Between Projected Warm Season Precipitation Systems and Thermodynamic and Microphysical Changes Over Eastern China","authors":"Ziyue Guo,&nbsp;Juan Fang,&nbsp;Sinan Gu","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042228","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Changes in precipitation systems may affect the local economy, ecosystems, and populations, and further research is necessary to understand their drivers under global warming. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting (CP, 4 km grid spacing) scale to comprehensively understand the warm season (May–October) precipitation system changes over eastern China. The CP simulations include a historical run (HIST, 1998–2007) forced by ERA-interim and the three pseudo-global warming (PGW) simulations for climate change projection forced by ERA-interim added on monthly mean and ensemble mean climate perturbations from CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. In a warmer climate, the frequency of weak precipitation systems decreases, whereas the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation systems increase. This shift is primarily due to the higher wet bulb temperature in the warm sector. Additionally, the lower low-level relative humidity, fewer low-level liquid hydrometeors, and increased maximum convective inhibition (MCIN) in a warmer environment suppress the occurrence of weak precipitation systems. Meanwhile, more frequent large values of maximum convective available potential energy and MCIN contribute to more upper-level solid hydrometeors and deeper warm cloud layer, leading to the increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation systems in the future warmer climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143564523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cross-Regional Horizontal and Vertical Transport Pathways of Carbon Monoxide and Its Impact on Air Pollution in the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Xiaoyi Zhang,&nbsp;Wanyun Xu,&nbsp;Xiaorui Song,&nbsp;Xuqin Duan,&nbsp;Xiaoqing Peng,&nbsp;Weili Lin,&nbsp;Gang Zhao,&nbsp;Gen Zhang,&nbsp;Xiaobin Xu,&nbsp;Junli Jin","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041859","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Carbon monoxide (CO) is an ideal tracer for tracking cross-regional transport of anthropogenic pollution due to its longer atmospheric lifetime. This study analyzed the seasonal variations of CO over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using surface and satellite observations, focusing on the impact of transport processes on the three-dimensional distribution of CO across the TP and surrounding regions. Unlike regions with significant surface emissions, the TP exhibited opposing seasonal patterns and a negative correlation between surface CO and CO total columns (COTC). Surface CO peaked in winter/spring, while COTC peaked in summer, due to different contributions of transport processes at various altitudes. CO from tropical biomass burning was transported up and north by the Hadley circulation, increasing CO concentrations with altitude over the TP, except for winter, when CO stayed uniform within the troposphere, indicating seasonal variations in transport. During winter/spring, downdrafts transported high CO concentrations to the lower troposphere, where it was efficiently removed by strong winter westerlies. In summer/autumn, strong convection lifted surface CO from India and Southeast Asia into the upper troposphere over the TP. These findings indicated that high COTC over the TP and other regions influenced by similar circulations should not be misinterpreted as surface air pollution. Furthermore, using low CO as an indicator of stratospheric intrusion as in current studies might be unsuitable for tropical/subtropical regions where CO was elevated near the tropopause. Future research should further explore these transport mechanisms and their broader implications for atmospheric chemistry and climate dynamics over the TP.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143564805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic Influence of Eurasian Soil Moisture and Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on August Out-Of-Phase Precipitation Pattern in Northern China","authors":"Yuchun Du,&nbsp;Huopo Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042888","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study delves into the interannual variability of August precipitation in northern China, revealing that the leading mode exhibits a zonal out-of-phase pattern, with a dividing line around 100°E. The western region (WNC) serves as a positive precipitation anomaly center, contrasting with the eastern region (ENC) as a negative anomaly center. This precipitation disparity is largely due to contrasting dynamic and moisture conditions between these regions, influenced by a quasi-barotropic anomalous cyclonic circulation over Central Asia and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over Mongolia. Further analysis reveals that land and oceanic processes are pivotal in modulating this precipitation pattern. Specifically, soil moisture anomalies over Eurasia and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are critical. In August, Eurasian soil moisture anomalies influence the local thermal processes, leading to eastward-propagating Rossby wave circulations. Simultaneously, SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific initiate an anomalous meridional Pacific-Japan (PJ) wave train. These circulation anomalies induce opposing conditions that promote precipitation in WNC and suppress it in ENC, thus establishing the observed out-of-phase precipitation pattern. In our study, Eurasian soil moisture and Pacific SST anomalies contribute approximately 44.9% and 21.2%, respectively, to the linear variance of precipitation pattern, collectively accounting for around 54.8% of the observed variation. Further investigation is required to gain a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Evolution of Turbulence Producing Motions in the Neutral ABL Across a Natural Roughness Transition","authors":"Justin P. Cooke,&nbsp;Douglas J. Jerolmack,&nbsp;George Ilhwan Park","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041768","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Landforms such as sand dunes act as roughness elements to Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows, triggering the development of new scales of turbulent motions. These turbulent motions, in turn, energize and kick-up sand particles, influencing sediment transport and ultimately the formation and migration of dunes—with knock-on consequences for dust emission. While feedback between flow and form have been studied at the scale of dunes, research has not examined how the development of an Internal Boundary Layer (IBL) over the entire dune field influences sediment-transporting turbulence. Here, we deploy a large-eddy simulation of an ABL encountering a natural roughness transition: the sand dunes at White Sands National Park, New Mexico. We analyze turbulence producing motions and how they change as the IBL grows over the dune field. Frequency spectrum and Reynolds shear stress profiles show that IBL thickness determines the largest scales of turbulence. Moreover, the developing IBL enhances the frequency, magnitude and duration of sweep and ejection events—turbulence producing motions whose peaks systematically migrate away from the wall as the IBL thickens. Because sweep and ejection events are known to drive sediment transport, our findings provide a mechanism for coupling the co-evolution of the landscape and the ABL flow over it. More broadly, our results have implications for how roughness transitions influence the transport of pollutants, particulates, heat, and moisture.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD041768","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the Impact of Dynamic Dust Source on the East Asian Dust Cycle Using WRF-Chem","authors":"Yu Chen,&nbsp;Yue Zhang,&nbsp;Siyu Chen,&nbsp;Ben Yang,&nbsp;Huiping Yan,&nbsp;Jixiang Li,&nbsp;Chao Zhang,&nbsp;Gaotong Lou,&nbsp;Junyan Chen,&nbsp;Lulu Lian,&nbsp;Chuwei Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041239","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dust emission is a prerequisite to accurately describe the physical processes of dust and is closely associated with dust sources; however, the spatial and temporal variation of East Asian dust sources has not been accurately quantified. Herein, we show the effects of the dominant factors associated with the dynamic dust source on dust modeling with multiple aspects. We found that the dynamic dust source in East Asia in 2001–2020 demonstrates a pronounced monthly and annual variability, showing wider spatial distribution in March than that in July and lower probability of dust uplifting in summer than that in spring. The dust source functions of the Gobi Desert and Taklimakan Desert decrease at rates of 5.8 × 10⁻³ and 4.7 × 10⁻³ decade⁻¹, respectively. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry, we further assess the joint control of surface bareness and topographical depression feature on the spatial distribution and value of the dynamic dust source. The East Asian dust source function generally increases with increasing surface bareness threshold, whereas that in the western Taklimakan Desert and central Gobi Desert decreases with coarse topography calculation resolution. These study findings show the importance of the dynamic dust source on dust simulation and deeply dive into exploring the effect of surface bareness and topographical depression feature on dust cycle simulation, which provide more options for better dust simulations in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD041239","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Morphology Rather Than Surface Tension Determines CCN Activity of Submicron Inorganic Salt/Organic Oxidized Sulfur Mixed Particles","authors":"Chun Xiong,&nbsp;Binyu Kuang,&nbsp;Xueyan Chen,&nbsp;Xiaolei Ding,&nbsp;Huichao Liu,&nbsp;Xiangyu Pei,&nbsp;Zhengning Xu,&nbsp;Fei Zhang,&nbsp;Shikuan Yang,&nbsp;Huan Hu,&nbsp;Zhibin Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041920","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041920","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Organic oxidized sulfur (OOS) compounds, particularly surface-active ones like organosulfates and organosulfonates, constitute a significant atmospheric sulfur reservoir and play a crucial role in cloud formation. Due to limited measurements, the physical characteristics of OOS aerosols under high relative humidity (RH) and subsequent cloud activation potential remain unclear. In this study, we measured phase state, surface tension and morphology of mixtures containing inorganic salts (sodium chloride (NaCl) and ammonium salfate (AS)) and OOS under high RH (&gt;99.5%), and investigated their cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity. We found that the <i>κ</i>_CCN of the studied OOS ranged from 0.15 to 0.37, showing a negative relationship with molar volume. <i>κ</i>_CCN and chemistry-derived <i>κ</i>_Chem agreed well for mixtures containing OOS with short carbon chain length (≤4), which could be explained by the ideal solution because of the liquid phase and slight surface tension reduction compared to that of water. However, <i>κ</i>_Chem overpredicted <i>κ</i>_CCN by 35% and 17% on average for NaCl–OOS and AS–OOS with long carbon chain length (seven and eight), respectively, which was the opposite of results from inorganic–dicarboxylic acid mixtures we previously reported. Although surface tension notably decreased by 25%–44%, inorganic–OOS mixtures exhibited core-shell morphology and the OOS shell suppressed water uptake, whereas inorganic–dicarboxylic acid particles exhibited homogeneous state thus not inhibiting water uptake. Based on the results, we emphasize the pivotal role of surfactant in determining aerosol morphology and thereby CCN activations.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incorporating Eruption Source Parameter and Meteorological Variability in the Generation of Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Forecasts","authors":"Shannon Williams,&nbsp;Frances M. Beckett,&nbsp;Susan J. Leadbetter,&nbsp;Jeremy C. Phillips,&nbsp;Anthony Lee,&nbsp;Mark J. Woodhouse","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042280","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Explosive volcanic eruptions can produce large masses of tephra that are transported over long distances, with potential impacts on the ground and to aircraft. Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) provide advice to aviation following an eruption, using atmospheric dispersion models, initialized with eruption source parameters (ESPs) and driven by forecast meteorological data. In this paper, we develop a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts incorporating uncertainty in these inputs. Meteorological uncertainty is typically provided as an ensemble of numerical weather prediction (NWP) data and ESPs include eruption plume height and mass eruption rate (MER); these are linked by atmospheric processes, and their relationship can be modeled by Bayesian regression to quantify their uncertainties. These uncertainties can be propagated through the model to compute probabilistic quantities of ash concentration. The linearity of the advection-diffusion-sedimentation (ADS) equation solved by dispersion models allows us to run a single simulation for each of the NWP ensemble members, and then rescale the results to any combination of MER (or height) and emission profile. This gives a computational speed-up compared to conventional approaches of computing every combination of ESPs and NWP. We demonstrate our method in the operational setting of the London VAAC, using the UK Met Office's NAME dispersion model, although it can be applied to any eruption scenario using any dispersion model that solves the ADS equation. The major source of uncertainty for this case study arises from the MER (due to limited variation in NWP data), although both sources of uncertainty are significant.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042280","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143533587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}