Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres最新文献_第8页

Divergent Risks of Dry and Wet Heat Waves Across China: Historical Trends and Future Projections 中国干湿热浪的不同风险：历史趋势和未来预测

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD043935

Shanjun Cheng, Shanshan Wang, Jinqing Zuo, Yongli He, Yanting Zhang

{"title":"Divergent Risks of Dry and Wet Heat Waves Across China: Historical Trends and Future Projections","authors":"Shanjun Cheng, Shanshan Wang, Jinqing Zuo, Yongli He, Yanting Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043935","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043935","url":null,"abstract":"Heat waves have been intensifying with climate change, presenting a growing risk to human health and ecosystems. However, the differential impacts of dry versus wet heat waves and their future trajectories remain underexplored. Here, we introduce a data-driven approach to classify heat waves by relative humidity, revealing dry heat waves predominantly affect China's arid northwest, while wet heat waves are more prevalent in its humid south. These events' frequency and persistence have increased substantially over recent decades. Under a high socioeconomic scenario, the intensified dry and wet heat waves will continue expanding, with increases of approximately 141% ± 48% and 224% ± 59% by the 21st century's end. Population exposure to wet heat waves is projected to increase by about 100% ± 36%, nearly doubling that of dry heat waves, with North China facing the highest risks. By then, an estimated 10% and 40% of China's population will face exposure to dangerous dry and wet heat waves. Adopting a moderate socioeconomic development pathway could substantially mitigate these risks. Our findings indicate that climate change is reshaping these heat wave threats, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies to address these evolving challenges.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144520202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital Holographic Microscopy and Machine Learning for Quantitative 3D Analysis and Automatic Classification of Volcanic Ash Particles 用于定量三维分析和火山灰颗粒自动分类的数字全息显微镜和机器学习

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD043283

A. C. Monaldi, J. I. Díaz, M. F. Martínez, N. Budini, W. A. Báez

{"title":"Digital Holographic Microscopy and Machine Learning for Quantitative 3D Analysis and Automatic Classification of Volcanic Ash Particles","authors":"A. C. Monaldi, J. I. Díaz, M. F. Martínez, N. Budini, W. A. Báez","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043283","url":null,"abstract":"Determining the shapes, sizes and optical properties of volcanic ash presents a significant challenge in volcanology, the aviation industry and atmospheric models involving transport and dispersion of particles. Eruptive dynamics, including fragmentation mechanisms, magma viscosity and particle transport processes, among others, are encoded in the intricate shapes and sizes of these particles. Traditionally, the analysis of ash particles' morphology has relied on quantitative non-dimensional parameters, primarily derived from their 2D silhouette projected area, using conventional microscopy or particle analyzers. However, these fail to capture the 3D structure of their morphology. Additionally, atmospheric dispersion models often assume spherical particles with uniform refractive indices, introducing uncertainties in particle size estimations and dispersion calculations. In this study, we introduce a novel 3D characterization method for volcanic ash using digital holographic microscopy (DHM) combined with machine learning (ML). We implemented an off-axis interferometer to register holograms of volcanic ash samples. We show that segmented phase maps from the reconstructed holograms can be used to derive both 2D and 3D phase-based morphological parameters for individual ash particles or to estimate their refractive index. To illustrate the potential of this technique, we analyzed morphological differences between ashes acccording to their transport mechanism: fallout and flow. A ML algorithm based on support vector machine (SVM) was trained to classify particles into one of these two categories, achieving an average accuracy of 76%. These results show that the proposed approach serves as a valuable tool for monitoring volcanic eruptions providing insights on their characteristics and associated environmental impact.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144511233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Meteorological Impact of Glacier Retreat and Proglacial Lake Temperature in Western Norway 挪威西部冰川退缩和前冰湖温度的气象影响

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042715

K. F. Haualand, T. Sauter, J. Abermann, S. D. de Villiers, A. Georgi, B. Goger, I. Dawson, S. D. Nerhus, B. A. Robson, K. H. Sjursen, D. J. Thomas, M. Thomaser, J. C. Yde

{"title":"Meteorological Impact of Glacier Retreat and Proglacial Lake Temperature in Western Norway","authors":"K. F. Haualand, T. Sauter, J. Abermann, S. D. de Villiers, A. Georgi, B. Goger, I. Dawson, S. D. Nerhus, B. A. Robson, K. H. Sjursen, D. J. Thomas, M. Thomaser, J. C. Yde","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042715","url":null,"abstract":"Glaciers are retreating worldwide, yet, little is known about the influence of these changes on local weather and climate in glacial landscapes. Changes in glacier extent and proglacial lakes alter the thermodynamic forcing in glacier-lake-valley systems, and it is still an open question if their importance for future microclimate is greater than direct effects of global warming. To study the impact of these changes, we combine the first set of high-density spatiotemporal observations of a glacier-lake-valley system at Nigardsbreen in western Norway with high-resolution numerical simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The sensitivity of the thermodynamic circulation to glacier extent and proglacial lakes is tested using glacier outlines from 2006 to 2019 and varying lake surface temperature. The model represents the evolution of glacier winds and cold air pools well when thermal forcing dominates over large-scale forcing. During a persistent down-glacier wind regime, the glacier-valley circulation is sensitive to lake temperature and glacier extent, with strong impacts on wind speed, convection in the valley, and interaction with mountain waves. However, when the large-scale forcing dominates and the down-glacier wind is weak and shallower, impacts on atmospheric circulation are smaller, especially those related to lake temperature. This high sensitivity to meteorological conditions is related to whether the wind regime promotes thermal coupling between the glacier and the lake. The findings of this study highlight the need for accurate representation of glacier extent and proglacial lakes when evaluating local effects of past and future climate change in glacial regions.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042715","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144511231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fingerprint-Based Attribution and Constrained Projection of Global Risk of Daily Compound Hot Extremes 日复合极端高温全球风险的指纹归因与约束预测

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041986

Liangwei Li, Xihui Gu, Yansong Guan, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Louise J. Slater, Xueying Li, Lunche Wang, Khosro Ashrafi, Xiongpeng Tang, Dongdong Kong, Xiang Zhang

{"title":"Fingerprint-Based Attribution and Constrained Projection of Global Risk of Daily Compound Hot Extremes","authors":"Liangwei Li, Xihui Gu, Yansong Guan, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Louise J. Slater, Xueying Li, Lunche Wang, Khosro Ashrafi, Xiongpeng Tang, Dongdong Kong, Xiang Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041986","url":null,"abstract":"Compound hot extremes (CHEs)—the concurrence of daytime and nighttime heat—have been increasing under anthropogenic warming, causing serious damage to human society and ecosystems. However, the anthropogenic fingerprint in past and future changes in daily CHEs and the corresponding population exposure remain unclear. Here, using a fingerprint-based detection and attribution method, we quantify contributions of different external forcings to the historical increase in CHEs by defining three daily scale metrics: the probability ratio (PR) of CHEs and the proportion of CHEs in the number of extreme hot days/nights (PTday/PTnight). All three metrics increased significantly by 117.9%, 128.7%, and 133.4% globally from 1950 to 2014. It is very likely (>90%) for human to leave fingerprints in increasing daily CHEs. The increases in PR, PTday, and PTnight that are attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are 121.2%, 123.1%, and 121.5%, respectively. By the end of the 21st century under a high-emission scenario, fingerprint-constrained projections show the PR of CHEs will be about 60 times higher than the climatological period, with around 41% of hot days and 49% of hot nights as CHEs, reducing the magnitude compared to raw projections. In some regions such as mid and high-latitudes, almost all daytime or nighttime extreme-heat events would become CHEs. The growing difference between CHE days per person and per unit of land area suggests that CHEs will disproportionately affect densely populated areas. Our results indicate that adaptive measures are required to alleviate the increasing proportion of CHEs and the disproportionate population exposure in densely populated areas.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144511232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of the Turbulence Parameterization on Simulations of Fog Over Complex Terrain 湍流参数化对复杂地形雾模拟的影响

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042610

Shweta Singh, Juerg Schmidli, Ivan Bašták Ďurán, Stephanie Westerhuis

{"title":"Impact of the Turbulence Parameterization on Simulations of Fog Over Complex Terrain","authors":"Shweta Singh, Juerg Schmidli, Ivan Bašták Ďurán, Stephanie Westerhuis","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042610","url":null,"abstract":"Numerical weather prediction (NWP) of radiation fog, particularly over complex terrain, remains a formidable challenge. Many operational NWP models often struggle with slow or no fog formation after sunset and too rapid dissipation in the morning. This study investigates the role of physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in shaping the limitations of fog and low stratus representation within the operational ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model. Specifically, it evaluates the effects of turbulence parameterizations and vertical resolution on fog simulations. ICON simulations were conducted for selected winter periods characterized by persistent radiation fog, nocturnal fog, low stratus, and high pollutant concentrations over the Swiss Plateau. The simulations involved different configurations of the operational turbulence scheme (ICON-TKE) and the newly developed two-energies turbulence scheme (ICON-2TE). The performance of these model configurations was assessed using an ABL profiler and surface observations from the Payerne weather station in Switzerland. The results indicate that ICON-2TE, with its refined turbulence representation, allows fog to persist longer and aligns more closely with observations than ICON-TKE. This improvement is attributed to a more sophisticated treatment of stability dependence and turbulence length scale in the ICON-2TE scheme. Notably, an increase in vertical resolution improves fog representation in the ICON-2TE scheme, while it shows almost no effect in the ICON-TKE scheme. The lack of improvement in ICON-TKE is likely due to an overestimation of turbulence mixing, which overrides the effect of changes in vertical resolution.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042610","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144503274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Intrinsic Predictability From the Troposphere to the Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere (MLT) 从对流层到中间层/低层热层（MLT）的内在可预测性

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD043363

H. Garny

{"title":"Intrinsic Predictability From the Troposphere to the Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere (MLT)","authors":"H. Garny","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043363","url":null,"abstract":"The atmosphere's flow becomes unpredictable beyond a certain time due to the inherent growth of small initial-state errors. While many research studies have focused on tropospheric predictability, predictability of the middle atmosphere remains less studied. This work contrasts the intrinsic predictability of different layers, with a focus on the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT, 50–120 km altitude). Ensemble simulations with the UA-ICON model for an austral winter/spring season are conducted with a gravity-wave-permitting horizontal resolution of 20 km. Initially small perturbations grow fastest in the MLT, reaching 10% of saturation after 5–6 days, compared to 10 days in the troposphere and 2 weeks in the stratosphere. A saturation level of 50% is reached only after about 2 weeks in the MLT, similar to the troposphere. Saturation times are overestimated in a coarser resolution model (grid size 160 km) by up to a factor of two, highlighting the need for gravity wave-resolving models. Predictability in the MLT depends on horizontal scales. Motions on scales of hundreds of kilometers are predictable for less than 5 days, while larger scales (thousands of kilometers) remain predictable for up to 20 days. This scale-dependent progression of predictability cannot be explained by simple scaling for upscale error growth. Vertical wave propagation plays a significant role, with gravity waves transmitting perturbations upward at early lead times and planetary waves enhancing long-term predictability. In summary, the study shows that MLT predictability is scale-dependent and highlights the necessity of high-resolution models to capture fast-growing perturbations and assess intrinsic predictability limits accurately.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD043363","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144503165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Observations and Model Simulations of Phase Heterogeneity in Arctic Clouds 北极云相非均质性的观测和模式模拟

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042714

Stian Leer-Salvesen Dammann, Britta Schäfer, Robert Oscar David, Trude Storelvmo

{"title":"Observations and Model Simulations of Phase Heterogeneity in Arctic Clouds","authors":"Stian Leer-Salvesen Dammann, Britta Schäfer, Robert Oscar David, Trude Storelvmo","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042714","url":null,"abstract":"Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) play a key role in Earth's radiation budget particularly in the Arctic where they are ubiquitous year-round. An important characteristic of MPCs is how the cloud phases are mixed, which affects interactions between ice and liquid. Observations show that phase tends to be nonuniform with ice and liquid forming spatially separated single-phased “pockets” not accounted for in climate models. These pockets may vary in size from the micron-scale to several hundred kilometers making them notoriously difficult to study, and the factors influencing cloud-phase heterogeneity remain uncertain. We quantify size distributions of phase pockets in an observed and modeled Arctic MPC occurring 12 November 2019 in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. The case is simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting model constrained with representative aerosol concentrations following measurements from the Ny-Ålesund Aerosol Cloud Experiment. We find that phase pockets exhibit broad size distributions with the smallest pockets occurring most frequently. Observations reveal mean pocket lengths of 2 km, whereas the simulated pockets are about 5 times longer on average. Simulated pocket size distributions are highly sensitive to prescribed aerosols. Moreover, we observe a pronounced increase of 6.5 km in the mean length of mixed-phase pockets when secondary ice production is enhanced in simulations. These results shed light on the link between cloud microphysics and the in-cloud distribution of phase and provide a potential framework for representation of sub-grid scale phase variability in climate models.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042714","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Noah-MP Parameter Optimization at Southern Great Plains Using Bayesian Optimization 基于贝叶斯优化的南大平原Noah-MP参数优化

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041793

Qingyu Wang, Sean Crowell, Petra Klein

{"title":"Noah-MP Parameter Optimization at Southern Great Plains Using Bayesian Optimization","authors":"Qingyu Wang, Sean Crowell, Petra Klein","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041793","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the key mechanisms that govern land-surface processes is crucial for accurately characterizing the energy, mass, and momentum exchanges between the atmospheric boundary layer, the land surface, and the subsurface across various atmosphere-soil-vegetation systems. To enhance our understanding of the mechanisms of land surface-atmosphere interactions and reduce the mismatches between Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface (Noah-MP) simulations and observational data, we optimized the seven most sensitive parameters in the Noah-MP for a 9-day period (2–10 April 2016) at the Southern Great Plains site using Bayesian Optimization (BO). The implementation of Noah-MP in the single-column Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the application of BO allow for site-level parameter estimation. The Noah-MP shows an improvement in the simulation of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux when we use optimized parameters instead of the default parameters according to data from flux tower observations. The optimized parameter values indicate that the top layer (0–20 cm below the ground surface) of soil at the Southern Great Plains site may contain a higher sand content than indicated by the silty-clay-loam soil classification provided by AmeriFlux agricultural records. These optimized parameters also improve the simulation of atmospheric state variables, especially the 2-m specific humidity, and result in improved top-layer soil moisture and temperature simulations. The optimized parameters not only improve the simulation during the selected 9 days in April 2016 but also lead to better simulation results throughout the entire alfalfa growing season in 2016 (April and May) at the Southern Great Plains site.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Ian (2022) in High Shear 高切变中飓风Ian（2022）的快速增强

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042024

Alexander K. Nickerson, Jun A. Zhang, Robert H. Weisberg, Yonggang Liu

{"title":"Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Ian (2022) in High Shear","authors":"Alexander K. Nickerson, Jun A. Zhang, Robert H. Weisberg, Yonggang Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042024","url":null,"abstract":"Initially a Category 3 storm, Hurricane Ian (2022) rapidly intensified on the West Florida Shelf reaching Category 5 over the course of about 12 hr. Intensification occurred despite inhibiting factors such as high axial tilt, high vertical wind shear, low atmospheric moisture, and transit over a relatively shallow continental shelf. Using a high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Ian from the Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting (HWRF) model, we examine the factors that both hindered and supported rapid intensification (RI) by blending various methods. We show that an increase in diabatic heating in the eyewall led to an inward radial advection of momentum, seen in both the absolute angular momentum budget and in the azimuthal wind budget. Analysis of the moist static energy budget indicates that the substantial latent heat flux from the surface was enough to balance heat losses through storm outflow. For instance, surface latent heat fluxes exceeded 1,500 W m−2 on the West Florida Continental Shelf. As suggested by actual ocean temperature observations that substantially exceeded those in the HWRF simulation, the latent heating may have even been larger. Physical explanations for discrepancies between the simulated Hurricane Ian and observations are provided, particularly those pertaining to the coastal ocean at the time of Ian's passage. This research provides a comprehensive explanation of the RI of a hurricane using momentum budget analyses as part of a coupled air-sea analysis. Our findings demonstrate the importance of in situ oceanic air-sea measurements in evaluating the performance of coupled models, especially for hurricanes.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Do Differences in the Simulation of Present-Day Clouds Affect Cloud Feedbacks? 现今云模拟的差异如何影响云的反馈？

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD044020

T. Aerenson, R. Marchand

{"title":"How Do Differences in the Simulation of Present-Day Clouds Affect Cloud Feedbacks?","authors":"T. Aerenson, R. Marchand","doi":"10.1029/2025JD044020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044020","url":null,"abstract":"Cloud radiative feedbacks are currently the largest source of spread in estimates of climate sensitivity. Here, we examine how cloud feedbacks relate to model simulations of present-day clouds relative to NASA Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite observations. Specifically, we examine relationships between simulated present-day cloud fraction, cloud top height, and cloud optical depth with tropical high cloud, midlatitude low cloud, global high cloud altitude, and tropical low cloud feedbacks for CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have produced MISR simulator output. We find that the strength of all four of these simulated cloud feedbacks have statistically significant relationships with simulations of present-day clouds. We use these relationships in an emergent constraint analysis to narrow the spread in the estimated strength of each feedback. This suggests that future expert assessments of cloud feedbacks (and climate sensitivity) should consider the state of present-day clouds and the climate modeling community might consider undertaking simulations where models are systematically tuned to eliminate (or at least reduce) biases relative to satellite observations.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD044020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144473238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0