Vincent Godard, Lionel L. Siame, Andre A. R. Salgado, ASTER Team
{"title":"Erosional Response to Pleistocene Climate Changes in the Brazilian Highlands","authors":"Vincent Godard, Lionel L. Siame, Andre A. R. Salgado, ASTER Team","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007671","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Plio-Quaternary climatic changes are considered to be a key driver of landscape evolution, but many unresolved questions remain, such as the extent of the impact of major climatic shifts such as the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Various geochronological methods are available to infer changes in surface processes over the Plio-Quaternary, and Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclides (TCN) have proven to be one of the most efficient tools to reconstruct paleo-denudation. Implementing these approaches requires very specific conditions, such as well-preserved and extensive sediment sequences. Developing alternative methods to document the evolution of denudation is thus of major interest to retrieve information on the evolution of denudation in places where recent detrital sediment records are absent. We explore the evolution of landscape erosion over a <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>1 Ma timescale in an intra-cratonic setting, the Espinhaço mountain range (Brazil), with a new data set of detrital cosmogenic nuclide concentrations (<sup>26</sup>Al–<sup>10</sup>Be). We observe a systematic disequilibrium in the <sup>26</sup>Al/<sup>10</sup>Be ratio, which we interpret as resulting from the combination of soil mixing and a significant increase in the intensity of surface processes, close to the MPT. We discuss the different scenarios with respect to available local and global data concerning the relationships between climate evolution and erosion over this time period. Our results have important implications for the interpretation of the denudation rates derived from TCN concentrations under steady states assumption, in landscapes with low erosion rates, which have a long memory for surface processes history.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Haiwei Li, Maarten van der Vegt, Feng Liu, Qingshu Yang
{"title":"Dynamic Controls on the Asymmetry of Mouth Bars: Role of Alongshore Currents","authors":"Haiwei Li, Maarten van der Vegt, Feng Liu, Qingshu Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007852","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007852","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mouth bar formation is critical for channel avulsions and progradation of river deltas. The morphology of mouth bars results from different hydrodynamic forcings such as river jets, tides, and wind waves. Here we study the asymmetry of mouth bars due to alongshore currents. Adopting a numerical model, we study how alongshore propagating tides and net alongshore currents cause asymmetric mouth bar formation. The results indicate that alongshore propagating tides shift the depocenter of the mouth bar in the direction of the alongshore currents during peak ebb. Net alongshore currents shift the depocenter to its down-current side. The main channels are oriented in the opposite direction of peak flood flows (with tides) or in the direction of the net alongshore currents (without tides). Systems highly influenced by alongshore tidal flows tend to form more and wider distributary channels which are oriented toward the direction of the alongshore ebb flows. With increased river discharge and sediment influx, the number of bifurcations and channels increases while the mouth bar is less asymmetric. We developed a predictor showing that the mouth bar asymmetry is directly proportional to alongshore currents divided by river jet velocities and the width of the river mouth. Our findings provide insights into the evolution of river deltas and contribute to the management of mouth bars and channels.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007852","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wanji Zheng, Jun Hu, Zhong Lu, Xie Hu, Qian Sun, Jihong Liu, Bo Huang
{"title":"Enhancing 4-D Landslide Monitoring and Block Interaction Analysis With a Novel Kalman-Filter-Based InSAR Approach","authors":"Wanji Zheng, Jun Hu, Zhong Lu, Xie Hu, Qian Sun, Jihong Liu, Bo Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007923","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent years, Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) has become widely utilized for slow-moving landslide monitoring due to its high resolution, accuracy, and extensive coverage. By integrating data from various orbits/platforms and monitoring sources, one-dimensional (1-D) line-of-sight (LOS) InSAR measurements can be explored to infer three-dimensional (3-D) movements. However, inconsistencies in observation times among different orbits and monitoring sources pose challenges in accurately capturing dynamic 3-D movements over time (referred to as 4-D). In this study, we propose a novel method, termed KFI-4D that incorporates spatiotemporal constraints into the traditional Kalman filter. This enhancement transforms the underdetermined problem of 4-D movement acquisition into a dynamic parameter estimation problem, enabling precise monitoring of landslide movements. The KFI-4D method was evaluated using both synthetic data sets and real data from the Hooskanaden landslide, demonstrating an improvement exceeding 50% in root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to conventional methods. Additionally, the high-resolution characteristics of InSAR-derived 4-D movements allow for the analysis of strain invariants, providing insights into block interactions and landslide dynamics. Our findings reveal that strain invariants effectively indicate the distribution and activity of landslide blocks and slip surfaces as well as their response to triggers. Notably, abnormal signals identified in strain invariants prior to the catastrophic event at Hooskanaden suggest potential for early warning of landslides. The future integration of data from advanced satellites, such as NISAR, ALOS4 PALSAR3, and Sentinel-1C, is expected to further enhance the KFI-4D method's capabilities, improving temporal resolution and early warning potential for landslide monitoring.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142561558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lorenzo Durante, Michele Bolla Pittaluga, Gaetano Porcile, Nicoletta Tambroni
{"title":"Downstream Control on the Stability of River Bifurcations","authors":"Lorenzo Durante, Michele Bolla Pittaluga, Gaetano Porcile, Nicoletta Tambroni","doi":"10.1029/2023JF007548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007548","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>River bifurcations are prevalent features in both gravel-bed and sand-bed fluvial systems, including braiding networks, anabranches and deltas. Therefore, gaining insight into their morphological evolution is important to understand the impact they have on the adjoining environment. While previous investigations have primarily focused on the influence on bifurcation morphodynamics by upstream channels, recent research has highlighted the importance of downstream controls. In particular, in the case of rivers, current linear stability analyses for a simple bifurcation are unable to capture the stabilizing effect of branches length unless a confluence is added downstream. In this work, we introduce a novel theoretical model that effectively accounts for the effects of downstream branch length in a single bifurcation. To substantiate our findings, a series of fully 2D numerical simulations are carried out to test different branches lengths. Results from linear stability analysis show that bifurcation stability increases as the branches length decreases. These results are confirmed by the numerical simulations, which also show that, as the branch length tends to vanish, bifurcations are invariably stable. Finally, our results interestingly reveal that when a source of asymmetry, such as a free surface gradient or channel area advantage, is present at the node, there are scenarios in which the less-favored branch becomes dominant over the hydraulically favored branch.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023JF007548","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jessica Munch, Yu Zhuang, Rajesh Kumar Dash, Perry Bartelt
{"title":"Dynamic Thermomechanical Modeling of Rock-Ice Avalanches: Understanding Flow Transitions, Water Dynamics, and Uncertainties","authors":"Jessica Munch, Yu Zhuang, Rajesh Kumar Dash, Perry Bartelt","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007805","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The rapid melting of glaciers and thawing of permafrost in mountainous regions have heightened the danger of rock-ice avalanches. These avalanches pose a severe threat due to their potential to transform into water-saturated debris flows. The catastrophic event in Chamoli, India, on 7 February 2021, illustrates the devastating consequences of such processes. Developing a model capable of predicting the dynamics and extent of these events is imperative for natural hazard science and disaster mitigation. In response, we propose a depth-averaged rock-ice avalanche model encompassing four distinct materials: rock, ice, snow, and water. The model integrates crucial physical processes, including frictional heating, phase changes, ground material entrainment, and air-blast hazards. Through a system of mass and momentum balance equations extended with grain flow and internal energy equations, the model captures heat exchanges and resulting phase changes as the fragmented material flows. Focusing on identifying the primary water source in the flow and testing the model on the 2021 Chamoli event, we quantify water's influence on flow dynamics and regime transitions. However, uncertainties persist in heat transfer physics and quantifying the hydro-meteorological state of the flow path. Our thermo-mechanical model enables the simulation of complex avalanches and identifies key flow transitions: powder cloud formation and potential debris flow transformation. The study underscores the pivotal role of water in avalanche dynamics and the challenge of accurately quantifying water content within the flow, necessitating comprehensive ground assessments for effective disaster management.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007805","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anna Crawford, Jan Åström, Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Fredrik Robertsén, Suzanne Bevan
{"title":"Calving Dynamics and the Potential Impact of Mélange Buttressing at the Western Calving Front of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica","authors":"Anna Crawford, Jan Åström, Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Fredrik Robertsén, Suzanne Bevan","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007737","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The western region of the wide Thwaites Glacier terminus is characterized by a near-vertical calving front. The grounding line at this western calving front (WCF) rests on a relatively high ridge, behind which exists a reverse-sloping bed; retreat of the grounding line into this over-deepening basin could therefore expose deep calving faces that may be subject to ice-cliff failure. Here, we use the 3D Helsinki Discrete Element Model to identify the factors that control the calving dynamics in this location. We then focus on the ability of mélange to influence these dynamics given the wide embayment in which Thwaites Glacier terminates. We find that calving along the WCF is currently influenced by ice flow across the grounding line and consequent longitudinal tensile stress and rift formation. Calving is slowed in simulations that are initiated with a highly constricted mélange, with a thicker mélange suppressing calving entirely. We liken the constrained simulations to a scenario in which mélange piles behind a large grounded iceberg. In a future which may see calving become a more dominant control on the retreat of Thwaites Glacier, this type of blockage will be necessary for robust force chains to develop and transmit resistive forces to the terminus. The ability of the mélange to hinder calving at this location will be determined by the presence and rigidity of binding land-fast sea ice and iceberg keel depths. Therefore, it is necessary to represent calving, mélange and sea ice in a single framework to predict the fate of Thwaites Glacier.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007737","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mike Turley, Marwan A. Hassan, Andre Zimmermann, Olav Lian
{"title":"Sediment Source Partitioning and Budgeting Over Historical Timescales in a Glacierized, Mountain Catchment","authors":"Mike Turley, Marwan A. Hassan, Andre Zimmermann, Olav Lian","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007819","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Managing and living with geohazards is especially challenging in mountain landscapes and requires an understanding of catchment-scale sediment dynamics and internal system functioning. While sediment budgeting is a valuable framework, challenges remain including partitioning sediment yield by source and grain size and addressing scale issues. This study advances our understanding of bed material dynamics in glacierized mountain catchments by applying a range of complementary techniques to measure sediment transfers in the Fitzsimmons Creek watershed. First, we measured the historical bed material yield using field surveys and historical air photo analysis, revealing an average specific sediment yield of 210 Mg km<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>, that varied by a factor of 17 over the 76-year record. Hydro-meteorological and historical analyses suggest that gravel extraction had the largest impact over the past three decades, while an extreme landslide and flood event produced the highest recorded sediment yield. Second, we constructed a detailed sediment budget along the river system using high-resolution, multi-temporal lidar and geomorphic mapping data. Sediment source partitioning indicates that landslide, active channel, and floodplain sources each contributed about one-third of the total sediment supply. Net degradation occurred along the valley bottom upstream of the fan-delta, resulting in steadily increasing downstream sediment yield. This trend is punctuated by chronic landsliding near the outlet, driven by postglacial incision through glaciogenic sediments at a hanging valley step. Contemporary glacial and proglacial sources were not measured directly but surprisingly contributed minimally. These findings provide insight into the sediment dynamics of glacierized mountain catchments and their potential controls.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007819","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142524842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jianwei Sun, Bram van Prooijen, Xianye Wang, Weiming Xie, Fan Xu, Qing He, Zhengbing Wang
{"title":"Conditional Effects of Tides and Waves on Sediment Supply to Salt Marshes","authors":"Jianwei Sun, Bram van Prooijen, Xianye Wang, Weiming Xie, Fan Xu, Qing He, Zhengbing Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007686","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The survival of salt marshes, especially facing future sea-level rise, requires sediment supply. Sediment can be supplied to salt marshes via two routes: through marsh creeks and over marsh edges. However, the conditions of tides and waves that facilitate sediment import through these two routes remain unclear. To understand when and how sediment is imported into salt marshes, 2-month measurements were conducted to monitor tides, waves, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in Paulina Saltmarsh, a meso-macrotidal system. The results show that the marsh creek tends to import sediment during neap tides with waves. A tidal cycle with a small tidal range result in weaker flow in the marsh creek during ebb tides, reducing the export of sediment. Waves enhance sediment supply to the marsh creek by eroding mudflats. However, strong waves can directly resuspend sediment in marsh creeks during spring tides when the water level is above the marsh canopy, enhancing sediment export through creeks. Net sediment import over marsh edges requires the opposite tidal and wave conditions: spring tides with weak waves. Spring tides provide stronger hydrodynamics, facilitating sediment import over the marsh edge. Increased SSC during the ebb phase can occur with strong waves over the marsh edge, resulting in net sediment export. Therefore, the net import or export of sediment, through the creek and over the marsh edge, depends on the combination of tidal and wave conditions. These conditions can vary between estuaries and even individual marshes. Understanding these conditions is crucial for better management of salt marshes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142447624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. N. Siegelman, R. A. McCarthy, A. P. Young, W. O’Reilly, H. Matsumoto, M. Johnson, C. Mack, R. T. Guza
{"title":"Subaerial Profiles at Two Beaches: Equilibrium and Machine Learning","authors":"M. N. Siegelman, R. A. McCarthy, A. P. Young, W. O’Reilly, H. Matsumoto, M. Johnson, C. Mack, R. T. Guza","doi":"10.1029/2023JF007524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007524","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Shoreline position (e.g., beach width) is a critical component of flooding and overtopping forecasts but difficult to predict accurately. We model beach width changes with a supervised machine learning (ML) approach informed by equilibrium principles. The time history of wave energy anomalies that force equilibrium models is used as an ML input feature. The sweeping simplifying equilibrium model assumptions relating beach width change to anomalies are replaced with data-based ML results. Supervised learning regression methods including linear, support vector, decision trees, and ensemble regressors are tested. Observations for model training and testing includes weekly to quarterly beach elevation surveys spanning approximately 500 m alongshore and 8 years at two beaches, each supplemented with several months of ∼100 sub-weekly surveys. These beaches, with different sediment types (sand vs. sand-cobble mix), both widen in summer in response to the seasonal wave climate, in agreement with a generic equilibrium model. Differences in backshore erodability contribute to differing beach responses in the stormiest (El Niño) year that are reproduced by a simple extra trees regression model but not by the equilibrium model. With sufficiently extensive training data, the ML model outperforms equilibrium by providing flexibility and complexity in the response to wave forcing. The present ML and equilibrium models both fail to simulate a uniquely stunted beach recovery unlike other recoveries in the training data.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023JF007524","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142449156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Scenario-Based Volcano Slope Stability Hazard Analysis: Case Study of Augustine Volcano, Alaska","authors":"Shreya Kanakiya","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007862","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Volcanoes worldwide have undergone cyclic destruction of their edifices, generating catastrophic volcanic debris avalanches. Augustine Volcano in Alaska, USA, has a history of debris avalanches, causing cyclic destruction of the edifice and cascading hazards. These collapses, together with eruption-related changes in the edifice structure, change the slope stability hazard of the volcano over time. This study aims to develop a current view of the slope stability hazard at Augustine Volcano by (a) characterizing collapse-prone source areas on the edifice under various scenarios typical of dynamic volcanic environments and (b) identifying the controlling factors that underlie the slope stability hazard. Scenario-based slope stability assessment was conducted using a quasi-3D limit equilibrium method to test for the effect of various factors that drive or resist failure, including topography, shallow edifice structure, strength of edifice-forming materials, pore fluid pressure distribution, and local and regional seismicity. Results show that in all scenarios assessed, the slopes of Augustine Volcano are stable with a factor of safety (FOS) greater than 1. The FOS, however, decreases with decreasing strength of edifice-forming materials, pore fluid pressurization, and earthquake loading. The location of the relatively less stable slope, changes to the southwestern flank when accounting for subsurface heterogeneities derived from geophysical observations. Subsurface heterogeneity is thus a key underlying factor, along with steep topography, in controlling where collapse-prone source areas occur, and it should be accounted for in volcanic slope stability hazard assessments.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142447623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}