Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface最新文献

{"title":"Land-To-Sea Sediment Fluxes From a Major Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Were Stepped Rather Than Instantaneous","authors":"L. P. Bailey,&nbsp;D. H. Shugar,&nbsp;M. Tilston,&nbsp;S. M. Hubbard,&nbsp;I. Giesbrecht,&nbsp;J. Del Bel Belluz,&nbsp;J. M. Jackson,&nbsp;M. A. Clare,&nbsp;M. J. B. Cartigny,&nbsp;S. Açıkalın,&nbsp;S. Hage,&nbsp;P. J. Talling,&nbsp;H. Basiuk,&nbsp;B. Menounos,&nbsp;M. Geertsema","doi":"10.1029/2024JF008126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF008126","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Glacial lake outburst floods can transport large volumes of sediment. Where these floods reach the coastline, much of the particulate matter is delivered directly to the marine environment. It has been suggested that offshore deposits, specifically in fjord settings, may provide a faithful record of past outburst flood events. However, a lack of observations means that the mechanics and the timing of sediment transport offshore following a glacial lake outburst event remain poorly constrained. Here, we document the changes in sea surface sediment dynamics following the 28 November 2020 Elliot Lake outburst flood in British Columbia, which transported ∼4.3 × 10⁶ m³ of sediment into an adjacent fjord (Bute Inlet) as a deep nepheloid layer directly following the event. However, analysis of sea surface turbidity using in situ measurements and satellite-derived estimates reveals that changes in fjord-head surface turbidity in the months following the major flood were surprisingly small. The highest measured sea surface turbidity instead occurred 5 months after the initial outburst flood. This delayed increase in seaward sediment flux coincided with the onset of the spring freshet, when the discharge of the rivers feeding Bute Inlet increases each year. We suggest that large quantities of sediment were temporarily stored within the river catchment and were only remobilized when river discharge exceeded a threshold level following seasonal snowmelt. Our results reveal a temporal disconnect, where onshore to offshore transfer of sediment is stepped following a glacial lake outburst flood, which could complicate the sedimentology of subsequent deposits.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF008126","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Washout Versus Washover: Distinct Trajectories of Barrier Reshaping","authors":"Joshua D. Himmelstein,&nbsp;Antonio B. Rodriguez","doi":"10.1029/2024JF008047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF008047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Barrier islands are dynamic coastal landforms that can migrate landward from the press of sea-level rise and the pulse of storms. Previous work on barriers largely focuses on landward sediment mobilization, particularly through overwash, while the role of outwash—where sediment is transported seaward—remains underexamined. There exists a lack of direct comparisons between the processes that restore sediment volume and the timescales of recovery following outwash and overwash events. Here, we used high-resolution mapping and in situ and modeled water levels to quantify morphologic change and its relation to inundation at three contrasting sites. Our results demonstrate that outwash can remain a net erosive scar for years after formation, while overwash magnitude, frequency, and thus persistence vary largely depending on the width and elevational resistance of the barrier. When elevational resistance to overtopping is low, we show that intermediate high-water events can contribute as much sediment to island overwash as larger named storms and that these processes are key for outwash recovery. We find that modeled total water level correlates positively with volume change, while discrepancies between modeled and observed water levels implicate runup overwash as the dominant mode of transport. Together, we use these data to suggest a differentiation between overwash and outwash processes and their resulting morphologies in studies that aim to predict the impact of storms on barrier island transgression rates and broader ecological function.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143824643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Functional Regression for Space-Time Prediction of Precipitation-Induced Shallow Landslides in South Tyrol, Italy","authors":"Mateo Moreno,&nbsp;Luigi Lombardo,&nbsp;Stefan Steger,&nbsp;Lotte de Vugt,&nbsp;Thomas Zieher,&nbsp;Alice Crespi,&nbsp;Francesco Marra,&nbsp;Cees van Westen,&nbsp;Thomas Opitz","doi":"10.1029/2024JF008219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF008219","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Landslides are geomorphic hazards in mountainous terrains across the globe, driven by a complex interplay of static and dynamic controls. Data-driven approaches have been employed to assess landslide occurrence at regional scales by analyzing the spatial aspects and time-varying conditions separately. However, the joint assessment of landslides in space and time remains challenging. This study aims to predict the occurrence of precipitation-induced shallow landslides in space and time within the Italian province of South Tyrol (7,400 km²). We introduce a functional predictor framework where precipitation is represented as a continuous time series, in contrast to conventional approaches that treat precipitation as a scalar predictor. Using hourly precipitation data and past landslide occurrences from 2012 to 2021, we implemented a functional generalized additive model to derive statistical relationships between landslide occurrence, various static scalar factors, and the preceding hourly precipitation as a functional predictor. We evaluated the resulting predictions through several cross-validation routines, yielding performance scores frequently exceeding 0.90. To demonstrate the model predictive capabilities, we performed a hindcast for a storm event in the Passeier Valley on 4–5 August 2016, capturing the observed landslide locations and illustrating the hourly evolution of the predicted probabilities. Compared to standard early warning approaches, this framework eliminates the need to predefine fixed time windows for precipitation aggregation while inherently accounting for lagged effects. By integrating static and dynamic controls, this research advances the prediction of landslides in space and time for large areas, addressing seasonal effects and underlying data limitations.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF008219","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143818585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying Hydraulically Distinct Floodplain Types From High Resolution Topography With Implications for Broad-Scale Flood Routing","authors":"Rebecca M. Diehl,&nbsp;Kenneth S. Lawson,&nbsp;Kristen L. Underwood,&nbsp;Julianne E. Scamardo,&nbsp;Patrick J. Clemins,&nbsp;Beverley C. Wemple","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007984","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Floodplains can significantly impact the routing of flood waves across the landscape, however, their representation in broad-scale water resource and flood prediction models is limited. To identify hydraulically relevant floodplains at scale, we developed a workflow to automatically extract reach-averaged topographic features from high resolution (1-m) LiDAR-derived topographic data. These features were identified from departures in the relationship between hydraulic geometry and flood stage and hypothesized to define and characterize a zone within the floodplain that disproportionately dissipates energy and attenuates floodwaters, called the Energy Dissipation Zone. We applied the workflow in the topographically diverse Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont, USA, and used a K-medoids analysis to cluster reaches into distinct feature-based types that were expected to uniquely route hydrographs. In total, we identified eight clusters of reach types: two that were pre-sorted because of the presence of a waterbody or limited floodplain access and six that reflected variability in reach-averaged mesoscale floodplain features that describe the size and shape of the Energy Dissipation Zone. Reach types had distinct impacts on the attenuation of synthetically derived hydrographs, evaluated using the Muskingum-Cunge method. From these clusters, we propose a Hydraulic Floodplain Classification, which is comparable to other geomorphically defined systems but novel in its focus on the landscape potential to influence flood routing. The automated workflow is repeatable and has the potential to improve the functionality of continental floodplain mapping efforts. Identification of hydraulically effective zones has implications for improved watershed management to meet flood resiliency goals and to improve flood predictions and warnings.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007984","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143801918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Rise and Fall of Marpha Lake, a Late Quaternary Dammed Lake in the Himalayan Rain-Shadow With Implications to Landscape Evolution and Sediment Dynamics","authors":"P. Chahal,&nbsp;A. Matmon,&nbsp;N. Porat,&nbsp;K. N. Paudayal,&nbsp;Y. Goldsmith","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007959","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding landscape evolution history and sedimentary dynamics in high mountainous regions is tampered by rapid erosion of the sedimentary archives. Naturally dammed lakes provide unique snapshots of these processes and enable evaluating these processes under climatic conditions different from the present. Marpha Lake, in the Himalayan rain-shadow of the upper Kali Gandaki, central Nepal, with its ∼450 m thick lacustrine sequence provides a rare opportunity to study these processes. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) of quartz and feldspars was used to date the full sequence of filling, breaching and sediment evacuation of the lake. The results show that the lake initiated at ∼120 ka and sediment accumulated until ∼80 ka, corresponding to the intense monsoon period of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. The calculated minimum catchment erosion rate during the lake filling is typical of modern erosion rates of the Himalayan rain shadow (∼150 mm/ka). The lake was breached at ∼30 ka and the majority of sediments were evacuated within 10 kyr. Between 80 and 30 ka, there was little sedimentation, corresponding to the Last Glacial period (MIS 2–4) associated with weaker Indian monsoon and possible ice coverage of the lake's drainage basin down to the elevation of the lake. Breaching of the dam may have been the result of ice pressure from the lake and/or ice build-up in the pores within the dam. Thus, the sediments of Marpha Lake provide a fascinating archive for understanding how the interplay between mass movement and climate shaped the Himalayan rain shadow morphology during the Late Quaternary.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007959","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Climate Change on Bimodal Cross-Shore Distributions of the Longshore Sediment Transport Rate and Current Velocity on a Dissipative Sandy Beach","authors":"Y. Kuriyama,&nbsp;M. Banno","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007931","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Changes in waves and wind caused by climate change would induce changes in the cross-shore distribution of the longshore sediment transport rate, which would lead to morphological changes on the updrift and downdrift sides of coastal structures. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on the cross-shore distributions of the longshore sediment transport rate and the longshore current velocity, which induces sediment transport, were examined at a sandy beach in Japan using a one-dimensional numerical model and 9-year wave and wind data simulated at 2-hr intervals for the present and future climates. Both the present-climate distributions had northward and southward predominant values near the shore and offshore, respectively, as a result of the combination of the southerly and northerly waves. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the distributions shifted southward in the nearshore region, even though the mean wave direction did not change. This occurred because the significant wave height of the southerly waves decreased more than that of the northerly waves under this scenario. In the offshore region, northward longshore sediment transport became predominant because the number of large southerly waves increased. The results obtained using the peak wave directions differed from those obtained using the mean wave directions. There was a significant shift in the distributions to the south, and the bimodal distributions became unimodal. Future changes in the distributions can be estimated using 1-day interval data instead of 2-hr interval data with an error of 30% in the nearshore region.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143741188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Reassessment of the Role of Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing on Ice Dynamics at Jakobshavn Isbræ (Sermeq Kujalleq), Ilulissat Icefjord","authors":"H. J. Picton,&nbsp;P. W. Nienow,&nbsp;D. A. Slater,&nbsp;T. R. Chudley","doi":"10.1029/2024JF008104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF008104","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Jakobshavn Isbræ (<i>Sermeq Kujalleq</i>) has been the largest single contributor to mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet over the past three decades. Previous research emphasizes the dominant role of oceanic forcing, with the recent advance, deceleration and thickening of Jakobshavn attributed to reduced ocean temperatures. Here, we use satellite imagery and remotely sensed data sets of ice surface velocity, ice surface elevation and ice discharge to extend observations of ice dynamics at Jakobshavn Isbræ between 2018 and 2023. We then use in situ oceanic and meteorological data, in combination with modeled estimates of surface runoff, to explore the potential role of climatic forcing over this 5-year period. Our results show that Jakobshavn began to re-accelerate in 2018, with mean annual near-terminus velocity increasing by 49% between 2018 and 2021. The onset of re-acceleration occurred prior to the arrival of warmer water, and was likely facilitated by the near-terminus being close to flotation and thus highly sensitive to reductions in effective pressure. Such reductions likely resulted from ice surface lowering, driven by both negative surface mass balance and dynamic thinning. During winter 2020/2021, ice velocities remained elevated, with sustained thinning and iceberg calving observed. This unusual behavior corresponded with a significant decrease in rigid mélange extent, likely driven by increased ocean temperatures observed in Disko Bay and Ilulissat Icefjord. This study thus further emphasizes the complexity of climatic forcing at the ice-ocean interface, highlighting that both oceanic <i>and</i> atmospheric forcing must be considered when projecting the future behavior of marine-terminating outlet glaciers.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF008104","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143741352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainty Reduction for Subaerial Landslide-Tsunami Hazards","authors":"Katherine R. Barnhart,&nbsp;David L. George,&nbsp;Andrew L. Collins,&nbsp;Lauren N. Schaefer,&nbsp;Dennis M. Staley","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007906","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007906","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143741411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elemental and Li Isotopic Investigation of a Proglacial River System: Insights to Modern Chemical Weathering Processes","authors":"Venkata Sailaja Pappala,&nbsp;Carli A. Arendt,&nbsp;Xiao-Ming Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007856","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dissolved and suspended sediment samples were collected from the 121 km-long proglacial Matanuska River and five associated tributaries in Southcentral Alaska (USA), in July 2019. Li elemental and isotopic (δ⁷Li) composition of dissolved load from proglacial river water samples and XRD analyses of the accompanying suspended sediments were measured to better understand the processes controlling Li isotopic fractionation during glacial weathering. The δ⁷Li_diss of the Matanuska River system ranges from +6.1 to +18.2‰ (average = +14.6‰), which is lower than that of the associated tributary samples (average = +21.0‰). A weak negative correlation between δ⁷Li_diss and Li/Na* ratios is observed, indicating that fluid residence time is not the only control for the observed δ⁷Li_diss variations in this study. Equilibrium-type fractionation controls the observed δ⁷Li_diss variability of the Matanuska River system with a calculated fractionation factor (<i>α</i>) of 0.988. In contrast, Rayleigh-type fractionation regulates the δ⁷Li_diss variability in tributaries, where <i>α</i> values range between 0.990 and 0.996. XRD analyses of suspended sediments show the presence of secondary clay mineral phases such as chlorite, illite, smectite, and Fe-oxyhydroxides group minerals, which further supports the estimated <i>α</i> values. There is no correlation between δ⁷Li_diss values and water temperature, pH, ionic strength of the solution, or topography, implying that these factors have limited influence on the evolution of δ⁷Li_diss along the Matanuska River transect. Overall, our results suggest that isotopic fractionation via adsorption of ⁶Li onto secondary mineral phases formed during glacial weathering likely explains the observed δ⁷Li_diss variability in this study.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007856","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Boreal Forest Cover Delays Thermokarst Onset in Central Siberia's Yedoma Deposits","authors":"S. M. Stuenzi,&nbsp;J. Boike,&nbsp;S. Westermann,&nbsp;M. Langer","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007873","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Boreal forests, covering more than half of the world's permafrost, are essential for maintaining permafrost stability. However, climate change and forest shifts are threatening the delicate balance in the thermal equilibrium between the atmosphere, vegetation, and permafrost. We focus on Central Yakutia's ice-rich boreal regions, specifically two sites located in Spasskaya-Pad and Churapcha, to investigate the interplay of hydrothermal and climatic conditions that induce thermokarst. We employ a numerical permafrost model (CryoGrid), with a canopy model, and features for excess ground ice, lateral water flow and lake formation, to simulate the underlying physical processes under two forcing scenarios until 2060. The results reveal that forest delays the onset of thermokarst and ground ice melting by 3–18 years, depending on ice depth, climate forcing, and local conditions. Our simulations additionally reveal that a canopy slows excess ice melt by up to 7 years compared to bare ground simulations. Furthermore, in exceptionally warm and wet years, thermokarst initiation occurred rapidly in the bare ground simulations. In contrast, the canopy buffered against these conditions, suggesting that canopies might mitigate the impacts of small temperature and precipitation anomalies. This research highlights the critical role of forests in shaping the trajectory of thermokarst-related landscape transformations in ice-rich boreal permafrost regions. With the study region warming faster than average, forest cover transformations could significantly alter the hydrological balance. By integrating thermodynamics, hydrology, and ecology, our findings underscore the importance of forests in delaying thermokarst initiation and slowing ground ice melt, ultimately stabilizing permafrost ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007873","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}