减少陆上滑坡-海啸灾害的不确定性

IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Katherine R. Barnhart, David L. George, Andrew L. Collins, Lauren N. Schaefer, Dennis M. Staley
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引用次数: 0

摘要

陆地上的岩石斜坡可能会因迅速进入水中而引发海啸。滑坡特征的巨大不确定性会扩展为海啸灾害的巨大不确定性,使土地和应急管理人员更难进行灾害评估。一旦确定了可能引发海啸的滑坡,可能就不清楚哪些滑坡特征对海啸危害的不确定性贡献最大。我们的目标是记录不同滑坡特征(例如,大小,材料属性)的相对价值,以减少滑坡-海啸危害评估中的不确定性。隔离特定滑坡特征的相对重要性可以为数据收集的优先次序提供信息,并提高了解灾害的效率。为了实现这一目标,我们在美国阿拉斯加州威廉王子湾西北部的巴里·阿姆滑坡综合体中系统地改变了可能破坏程度的大小和材料特性,生成了一组288次滑坡海啸模拟。我们发现,对于小于接收水体的滑坡,滑坡体积对产生的波浪特征的影响最大,因此对减少海啸危害的不确定性的影响最大。相反,对于比水体大得多的滑坡,滑坡快速移动的持续时间具有最大的杠杆作用。在此基础上,提出了一种基于滑坡与水体相对大小的陆上滑坡分类方案。此外,我们的结果支持在现有潮汐测量器和附近沿海城市之间产生海啸高度传递函数。这些结果对业务预警的实践具有直接影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Uncertainty Reduction for Subaerial Landslide-Tsunami Hazards

Uncertainty Reduction for Subaerial Landslide-Tsunami Hazards

Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.

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来源期刊
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
10.30%
发文量
162
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