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Pockets of Predictability: A Replication 可预测性的口袋：复制
IF 8 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13484
NUSRET CAKICI, CHRISTIAN FIEBERG, TOBIAS NEUMAIER, THORSTEN PODDIG, ADAM ZAREMBA
{"title":"Pockets of Predictability: A Replication","authors":"NUSRET CAKICI, CHRISTIAN FIEBERG, TOBIAS NEUMAIER, THORSTEN PODDIG, ADAM ZAREMBA","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13484","url":null,"abstract":"Farmer, Schmidt, and Timmermann (FST) document time‐variation in market return predictability, identifying “pockets” of significant predictability through kernel regressions. However, our analysis reveals a critical discrepancy between the method outlined by FST and the code actually implemented. Instead of using a one‐sided kernel, which guarantees out‐of‐sample forecasts, they perform in‐sample estimation with a two‐sided kernel. As a result, future information leaks into the forecasting model, undermining its reliability. Rectifying this error qualitatively alters the findings, invalidating most conclusions of the FST study. Thus, attempts to exploit such “pockets”—should they exist—offer little help in forecasting market returns.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Thirty Years of Change: The Evolution of Classified Boards 三十年的变革：分类委员会的演变
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13485
SCOTT GUERNSEY, FENG GUO, TINGTING LIU, MATTHEW SERFLING
{"title":"Thirty Years of Change: The Evolution of Classified Boards","authors":"SCOTT GUERNSEY,&nbsp;FENG GUO,&nbsp;TINGTING LIU,&nbsp;MATTHEW SERFLING","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13485","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13485","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Based on a comprehensive data set of classified (staggered) boards covering nearly all U.S. public firms from 1991 to 2020, we show that contrary to conventional wisdom, the use of classified boards remains widespread. Moreover, classified board usage over a firm's life cycle depends significantly on the decade the firm matured or year it went public. While classified boards were rarely removed in the 1990s, firms became more likely to declassify as they matured during the following decades. Decreased collective action costs and increased innovation-related investments, institutional ownership, and scrutiny of governance contributed to this more dynamic adjustment.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"2971-3020"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144901466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impediments to the Schumpeterian Process in the Replacement of Large Firms 大企业替代中熊彼特过程的障碍
IF 8 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13481
MARA FACCIO, JOHN J. MCCONNELL
{"title":"Impediments to the Schumpeterian Process in the Replacement of Large Firms","authors":"MARA FACCIO, JOHN J. MCCONNELL","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13481","url":null,"abstract":"We use newly assembled data overall encompassing up to 75 countries and starting circa 1910, to study impediments to the Schumpeterian process of creative destruction as it “proceeds by competitively destroying old businesses.” Political connections appear to represent an obstacle to the destructive part of the Schumpeterian process in the replacement of large firms. When accompanied by regulations that restrict entry, political connections can play a role in allowing large firms to remain large. When connected to Fogel, Morck, and Yeung (2008, <jats:italic>Journal of Financial Economics</jats:italic> 89, 83–108), the results imply that political connections, combined with barriers to entry, can retard economic development.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Superstar Returns? Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing 巨星的回报吗?住房收益的空间异质性
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13479
FRANCISCO AMARAL, MARTIN DOHMEN, SEBASTIAN KOHL, MORITZ SCHULARICK
{"title":"Superstar Returns? Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing","authors":"FRANCISCO AMARAL,&nbsp;MARTIN DOHMEN,&nbsp;SEBASTIAN KOHL,&nbsp;MORITZ SCHULARICK","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13479","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13479","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper makes the first comprehensive attempt to study within-country heterogeneity of housing returns. We introduce a new city-level data set covering 15 OECD countries over 150 years and show that national housing markets are characterized by systematic spatial variation in housing returns. Total returns in large agglomerations are close to 100 basis points lower per year than in other parts of the same country. Excess returns outside the large cities can be rationalized as compensation for higher risk, especially higher covariance with income growth and lower liquidity. Real estate in diversified large agglomerations is comparatively safe.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"3057-3094"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13479","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144901538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of the Financial Education of Executives on the Financial Practices of Medium and Large Enterprises 高管财务教育对大中型企业财务实践的影响
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13476
CLÁUDIA CUSTÓDIO, DIOGO MENDES, DANIEL METZGER
{"title":"The Impact of the Financial Education of Executives on the Financial Practices of Medium and Large Enterprises","authors":"CLÁUDIA CUSTÓDIO,&nbsp;DIOGO MENDES,&nbsp;DANIEL METZGER","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13476","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13476","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the impact of an MBA-style executive education course in finance on corporate policies and firm performance targeting top managers of medium and large Mozambican enterprises. Using a randomized controlled trial, we find that the educational treatment induces changes in financial policies that improve firm performance. Specifically, a reduction in working capital (0.4 to 0.5 standard deviations) increases cash flow, and in turn long-term investments. This effect operates primarily through a reduction in accounts receivable (0.4 to 1 standard deviations). Our findings show that targeted educational interventions can build managerial capital and enhance corporate performance by improving financial decision making among executives.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"2875-2920"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13476","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks 全球银行套利资本
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13478
ALYSSA ANDERSON, WENXIN DU, BERND SCHLUSCHE
{"title":"Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks","authors":"ALYSSA ANDERSON,&nbsp;WENXIN DU,&nbsp;BERND SCHLUSCHE","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13478","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13478","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We study the impact of the U.S. money market fund reform implemented in October 2016 on global banks' funding supply and business activities. We show that the reform induced a large negative wholesale funding shock for global banks. In contrast to the conventional bank lending channel, the primary response of global banks to the reform was a cutback in arbitrage positions that relied on unsecured funding, rather than a reduction in loan provision. We discuss the role of postcrisis liquidity regulations and unconventional monetary policy in explaining our findings, and implications for banks' business models and deposit competition.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"2591-2638"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144901539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Baby Booms and Asset Booms: Demographic Change and the Housing Market 婴儿潮和资产潮：人口变化和房地产市场
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13480
MARC FRANCKE, MATTHIJS KOREVAAR
{"title":"Baby Booms and Asset Booms: Demographic Change and the Housing Market","authors":"MARC FRANCKE,&nbsp;MATTHIJS KOREVAAR","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13480","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13480","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Based on centuries of data, we demonstrate that demographics have been a major, predictable driver of house prices. High birth rates 25 to 29 (60 to 64) years ago predict declining (rising) rent-price ratios today. This pattern arises from age-concentrated entry into and exit from homeownership affecting house prices, rather than changes in housing consumption that could also impact rents. We provide evidence for possible mechanisms: slow responses of other market participants to shifts in homeownership demand, and geographic segmentation between rental and owner-occupied markets. Evidence for age-dependent demand effects on yields of bonds and stocks is significantly weaker.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"3021-3056"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13480","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145129097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Persuading Investors: A Video-Based Study 说服投资者：基于视频的研究
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13471
ALLEN HU, SONG MA
{"title":"Persuading Investors: A Video-Based Study","authors":"ALLEN HU,&nbsp;SONG MA","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13471","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13471","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Persuasive communication functions through not only content but also delivery—facial expression, tone of voice, and diction. This paper examines the persuasiveness of delivery in startup pitches. Using machine learning algorithms to process full pitch videos, we quantify persuasion in visual, vocal, and verbal dimensions. We find that positive (i.e., passionate, warm) pitches increase funding probability. However, conditional on funding, startups with higher levels of pitch positivity underperform. Women are more heavily judged on delivery when evaluated in single-gender teams, but they are neglected when copitching in mixed-gender teams. Using an experiment, we show that persuasion delivery works mainly through leading investors to form inaccurate beliefs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"2639-2688"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145129096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household Portfolios and Retirement Saving over the Life Cycle 生命周期中的家庭投资组合和退休储蓄
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13473
JONATHAN A. PARKER, ANTOINETTE SCHOAR, ALLISON COLE, DUNCAN SIMESTER
{"title":"Household Portfolios and Retirement Saving over the Life Cycle","authors":"JONATHAN A. PARKER,&nbsp;ANTOINETTE SCHOAR,&nbsp;ALLISON COLE,&nbsp;DUNCAN SIMESTER","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13473","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13473","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using account-level data on millions of U.S. middle-class investors over 2006 to 2018, we characterize the share of investable wealth that they hold in the stock market over their working lives. Relative to the 1990s, this share has both risen by 10% and become age-dependent. The Pension Protection Act (PPA)—which allowed target date funds (TDFs) to be default options in retirement plans—played an important role: younger (older) workers starting at a firm after TDFs became the default option post-PPA invested more (less) in stocks, in line with the TDF glidepath. In contrast, contribution rates changed little following the PPA.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"2739-2787"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13473","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144924017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investor Factors 投资者的因素
IF 9.5 1区 经济学
Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13474
SEBASTIEN BETERMIER, LAURENT E. CALVET, SAMULI KNÜPFER, JENS SOERLIE KVAERNER
{"title":"Investor Factors","authors":"SEBASTIEN BETERMIER,&nbsp;LAURENT E. CALVET,&nbsp;SAMULI KNÜPFER,&nbsp;JENS SOERLIE KVAERNER","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13474","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13474","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper develops an empirical methodology for extracting pricing factors from investor portfolio data. We apply this approach to the stockholdings of Norwegian individual investors from 1997 to 2017. A two-factor model, featuring the market portfolio and a long-short portfolio constructed from the holdings of investors sorted by age or wealth, explains both the common variation in portfolio holdings and the cross section of stock returns. Portfolio tilts toward the long-short investor factor correlate with indebtedness, macroeconomic exposure, gender, and investment experience. Our paper illustrates the benefits of using holdings data for explaining the risk premia of financial assets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"80 5","pages":"2789-2830"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145128882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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