Journal of Econometrics最新文献_第4页

Some children left behind: Variation in the effects of an educational intervention 一些留守儿童：教育干预效果的差异

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.010

Julie Buhl-Wiggers , Jason T. Kerwin , Juan Muñoz-Morales , Jeffrey Smith , Rebecca Thornton

引用次数: 0

Reprint of: Profiling the plight of disconnected youth in America 重印本：剖析美国失联青年的困境

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105820

Thomas MaCurdy , David Glick , Sonam Sherpa , Sriniketh Nagavarapu

{"title":"Reprint of: Profiling the plight of disconnected youth in America","authors":"Thomas MaCurdy , David Glick , Sonam Sherpa , Sriniketh Nagavarapu","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105820","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105820","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In a successful transition from youth to adulthood, individuals pass through a sequence of roles involving school, work, and family formation that culminate in their becoming self-sufficient adults. However, some “disconnected” youth spend extended periods of time outside of any role that constitutes an element of the pathway towards adult independence. Assisting these youth requires a systematic understanding of what “disconnection” means, how many disconnected youth there are, who these youth are, and how the scale of the problem has evolved over time. Using the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth for 1997 and 1979, we address these issues by creating concrete definitions of “disconnection spells” using rich data on youths’ enrollment, work, and personal histories. We estimate a multi-state duration model to account for right censoring and to understand differences across salient sub-groups. Our estimates imply that in the early 2000s, almost 19% and 25% of young men and young women, respectively, experienced a disconnection spell by age 23 using our basic definition. These rates are substantially higher for certain sub-groups defined by race/ethnicity, parental education, and government aid receipt, rising as high as 30+% by age 23. Approximately 60% of youth with a disconnection spell have it last longer than a year, and close to 10% have it last longer than 4 years. However, once reconnected, a majority of youth go at least three years without a re-disconnection spell. Patterns of initial disconnection changed markedly from the 1980s to the 2000s, as young women saw a 12 percentage point decline over time. Moreover, the Black-White gap in disconnection has fallen for women, but increased for men. Our profile of disconnection experiences provides a starting point for government agencies aiming to understand where, how, and with whom to intervene to prevent lengthy disconnection spells.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"243 1","pages":"Article 105820"},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

You are what your parents expect: Height and local reference points 你就是你父母所期望的：身高和当地参考点

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.020

Fan Wang , Esteban Puentes , Jere R. Behrman , Flávio Cunha

{"title":"You are what your parents expect: Height and local reference points","authors":"Fan Wang , Esteban Puentes , Jere R. Behrman , Flávio Cunha","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recent estimates are that about 150 million children under five years of age are stunted, with substantial negative consequences for their schooling, cognitive skills, health, and economic productivity. Therefore, understanding what determines such growth retardation is significant for designing public policies that aim to address this issue. We build a model for nutritional choices and health with reference-dependent preferences. Parents care about the health of their children relative to some reference population. In our empirical model, we use height as the health outcome that parents target. Reference height is an equilibrium object determined by earlier cohorts’ parents’ nutritional choices in the same village. We explore the exogenous variation in reference height produced by a protein-supplementation experiment in Guatemala to estimate our model’s parameters. We use our model to decompose the impact of the protein intervention on height into price and reference-point effects. We find that the changes in reference points account for 65% of the height difference between two-year-old children in experimental and control villages in the sixth annual cohort born after the initiation of the intervention.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"243 1","pages":"Article 105269"},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Eliciting willingness-to-pay to decompose beliefs and preferences that determine selection into competition in lab experiments 在实验室实验中激发支付意愿，以分解决定竞争选择的信念和偏好

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105652

引用次数: 0

Robust inference for moment condition models without rational expectations 无理性预期的时刻条件模型的稳健推断

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105653

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the annals issue in honor of James J Heckman 纪念詹姆斯-J-赫克曼年刊导言

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105818

Xiaohong Chen, Edward Vytlacil

引用次数: 0

Econometric causality: The central role of thought experiments 计量经济学的因果关系：思想实验的核心作用

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105719

James Heckman , Rodrigo Pinto

引用次数: 0

Earnings dynamics and intergenerational transmission of skill 收入动态和技能的代际传承

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.009

Lance Lochner , Youngmin Park

{"title":"Earnings dynamics and intergenerational transmission of skill","authors":"Lance Lochner , Youngmin Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops and estimates a two-factor model of intergenerational skill transmission when earnings inequality reflects differences in individual skills and other non-skill shocks. We consider heterogeneity in both initial skills and skill growth rates, allowing variation in skill growth to change over the lifecycle. Using administrative tax data on two linked generations of Canadians covering 37 years, we exploit covariances in log earnings (at different ages) both across and within generations to identify and estimate the intergenerational correlation structure for initial skills and skill growth rates, lifecycle skill growth profiles, and the dynamics of non-skill earnings shocks.</p><p>We estimate low intergenerational elasticities (IGEs) for earnings in Canada; however, skill IGEs are typically 2–3 times larger due to considerable (and persistent) variation in earnings conditional on skills. Both earnings and skill IGEs decline for more recent child cohorts and are lower for children born to younger fathers. Intergenerational transmission of both initial skills and skill growth rates explains up to 40% of children’s skill variation. Skills become a more important determinant of earnings over the first part of workers’ careers; however, intergenerational transmission of skills becomes less important as children age, because skill growth rates are not well-predicted by parental skills. Parents’ initial skills and skill growth rates are equally important determinants of children’s skills, largely because both strongly influence children’s initial skills.</p><p>Finally, we study intergenerational mobility for the 35 largest cities in Canada, documenting the extent to which considerable differences in earnings and skill IGEs vary with the extent of local heterogeneity in parental skills vs. earnings instability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"243 1","pages":"Article 105255"},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Gender pension gaps in a private retirement accounts system: A dynamic model of household labor supply and savings 私人退休账户体系中的性别养老金差距：家庭劳动力供给和储蓄的动态模型

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.08.005

Clement Joubert , Petra E. Todd

{"title":"Gender pension gaps in a private retirement accounts system: A dynamic model of household labor supply and savings","authors":"Clement Joubert , Petra E. Todd","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.08.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.08.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of individuals’ and couples’ labor supply, savings, and retirement decisions to analyze how the design of Chile’s privatized pension system and a reform undertaken in 2008 affect gender pension gaps and old-age poverty. Chile has one of the longest-running private retirements accounts systems in the world, which has served as a model for many countries. The paper estimates the dynamic model using pre-reform data and compares the model’s short-term forecasts with reduced form estimates of the reform’s causal impacts. The model provides accurate forecasts, so it is used to evaluate how actual and counterfactual changes in the pension system design affect men’s and women’s labor supply and savings decisions, pension receipts, and program costs over a longer time horizon. The results show that three design features significantly reduce gender pension gaps: expanding minimum pension benefit eligibility, providing a per-child pension bonus, and increasing women’s retirement age to be equal to men’s. Overall, the 2008 pension reform largely achieved its goals of reducing gender gaps and old age poverty, although the new system costs double that of the old system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"243 1","pages":"Article 105337"},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Human capital and migration: A cautionary tale 人力资本与移民：一个警世故事

IF 9.9 3区经济学

Journal of Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105720

{"title":"Human capital and migration: A cautionary tale","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze the impact that the option of migration might have on human capital<span> accumulation. We show that, when the return to education for migrants is lower in the destination than in the origin, the overall incentive to accumulate human capital is reduced as restrictions on migration are relaxed. We use panel data from the Chinese Household Income Project to document that the return to education for rural individuals is lower in urban areas than in rural areas. We then use a difference-in-differences design to show that the 1983 reform that eliminated the strong restriction that existed for rural–urban migration resulted in a reduction of 0.4 years of schooling for rural people in China. Guided by these results, we estimate a life-cycle dynamic discrete choice model of education decisions and circular rural–urban migration in which individuals differ in observable characteristics and unobservable cognitive and non-cognitive skills. We validate the model by showing it is able to replicate the impact estimates from the difference-in-differences specification. Our simulations show that, while it would take a small subsidy (conditional on staying in school) to undo about 40% of the negative effects of the 1983 policy on rural education, the annual subsidy would need to be half of annual earnings to undo the effects entirely.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"243 1","pages":"Article 105720"},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140400420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0