Satellites turn “concrete”: Tracking cement with satellite data and neural networks

Abstract

This paper exploits daily infrared images taken from satellites to track economic activity in advanced and emerging countries. We first develop a framework to read, clean, and exploit satellite images. Our algorithm uses the laws of physics (Planck's law) and machine learning to detect the heat produced by cement plants in activity. This allows us to monitor in real-time whether a cement plant is working. Using this on around 1,000 plants, we construct a satellite-based index. We show that using this satellite index outperforms benchmark models and alternative indicators for nowcasting the production of the cement industry as well as the activity in the construction sector. Comparing across methods, neural networks appear to yield more accurate predictions as they allow to exploit the granularity of our dataset. Overall, combining satellite images and machine learning can help policymakers to take informed and swift economic policy decisions by nowcasting accurately and in real-time economic activity.