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Empirical Discussion of Technological Accumulation and Solow Growth Theory 技术积累与索洛增长理论的实证探讨
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3609294
K. R.A
{"title":"Empirical Discussion of Technological Accumulation and Solow Growth Theory","authors":"K. R.A","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3609294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3609294","url":null,"abstract":"This Paper describes the theoretical explanation of the Solow model with capital accumulation, using a data-driven empirical analysis. First, we focus on reusing the technological investment to increase the rate of output growth. Further discusses an expelling theory of the aggregate production characteristics, the constant retunes to scale in state-level production functions, the diminishing returns to the factor of production, and steady-state condition of the Solow Model. Secondly, we analyze reasonable empirical evidence to explain the close economy with the Solow growth model and the technological capital accumulation. Finally, we illustrate impotency of the technological contribution in the Solow growth and capital accumulation for the economic growth. According to the results explained, during 1959-99. For the period 1959-73, computer inputs contributed less than 0.1 percentage point to annual U.S. But economic growth after 1995, the price decline for computers had accelerated, reaching nearly 28 percent per year from 1995 to 1998. Therefore, investment in computers had increased, and the rising contribution of computer hardware has increased more than a fivefold, to 0.46 percentage point per year in the late 1990s. Software and communications equipment, two other types of IT assets, contributed an additional 0.30 percentage point per year during 1995-98. Preliminary estimates through 1999 reveal further increases in these contributions for all three high technology assets. Therefore, this paper concludes, technological accumulation is the most significant instrument for the exogenesis Solow growth in USA between 1959-1999.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124164716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using Interest Rates to Predict Economic Growth: Are Corporate Bonds Better? 用利率预测经济增长:公司债券更好吗?
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3602698
D. McMillan
{"title":"Using Interest Rates to Predict Economic Growth: Are Corporate Bonds Better?","authors":"D. McMillan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3602698","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3602698","url":null,"abstract":"We consider whether government bonds, through the term structure, or corporate bonds, through the default yield, provide predictive power for output, consumption and investment growth. Such predictive power will allow policy-makers to use the information as a leading indicator for macroeconomic performance and improve our understanding of the links between real and financial markets. Full sample results suggest that both interest rate series exhibit predictive power for output and investment growth, while only the default yield has a significant relation with consumption growth. Time-variation in the predictive coefficient reveals the waning influence of the term structure and the rising influence of the default yield. Forecast results, which are obtained from a rolling window approach, likewise suggest both series have information content for macroeconomic conditions, but there is a change in their relative strengths. These results may arise as interest rates have declined since the highs of the early to mid-1980s thus reducing the information content of government yield, whereas corporate bonds respond more to investor views of macroeconomic risk, which affects a firm’s ability to repay its debt. Furthermore, short-term rates are held unprecedently low since the dotcom crash.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134182395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal Monetary Policy with Skill Heterogeneity and Wage Rigidity 具有技能异质性和工资刚性的最优货币政策
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3524977
Pritha Chaudhuri
{"title":"Optimal Monetary Policy with Skill Heterogeneity and Wage Rigidity","authors":"Pritha Chaudhuri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3524977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3524977","url":null,"abstract":"Labor market indicators such as unemployment rates and labor force participation show a significant amount of heterogeneity across demographic groups, which is often not incorporated in monetary policy analysis. In this paper, I build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with skill heterogeneity in the U.S. labor market. Low-skilled workers have a higher elasticity of labor supply and labor demand, resulting in a flatter wage Phillips curve for low-skilled workers. A welfare improving optimal monetary policy with skill differentials can be implemented by a simple interest rate rule with unemployment rates for high and low-skill workers. Welfare improvement is twice that of a naive policy, where the central bank makes low-skill workers significantly better-off but high-skill workers are slightly worse-off.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126190193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Real-Time Forecasts of State and Local Government Budgets with an Application to COVID-19 基于COVID-19的州和地方政府预算实时预测
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3580363
Eric Ghysels, Fotis Grigoris, Nazire Ozkan
{"title":"Real-Time Forecasts of State and Local Government Budgets with an Application to COVID-19","authors":"Eric Ghysels, Fotis Grigoris, Nazire Ozkan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3580363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3580363","url":null,"abstract":"Using a sample of the 48 contiguous United States, we consider the problem of forecasting state and local governments' revenues and expenditures in real time us","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125804648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Financial Factors and the Business Cycle 金融因素和商业周期
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3593121
Tino Berger, Julia Richter, Benjamin Wong
{"title":"Financial Factors and the Business Cycle","authors":"Tino Berger, Julia Richter, Benjamin Wong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3593121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3593121","url":null,"abstract":"We study how financial factors shape and interact with the U.S. business cycle through a unified empirical approach where we jointly estimate financial and business cycles as well as identify their underlying drivers using a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregression. First, we show, both in reduced form and when we identify a structural financial shock, that variation in financial factors had a larger role in driving the output gap post-2000 and a more modest role pre-2000. Our results suggest that the financial sector did play a role in overheating the business cycle pre-Great Recession. Second, while we document a positive unconditional correlation between the credit cycle and the output gap, the correlation of the lagged credit cycle and the contemporaneous output gap turns negative when we condition on a financial shock. The sign-switch suggests that the nature of the underlying shocks may be important for understanding the relationship between the business and financial cycles.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116273744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Impact of Remittances on Male and Female Labor Force Participation Patterns in Africa: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Ghana 汇款对非洲男女劳动力参与模式的影响:来自加纳的准实验证据
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12668
E. Asiedu, Nurokinan Chimbar
{"title":"Impact of Remittances on Male and Female Labor Force Participation Patterns in Africa: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Ghana","authors":"E. Asiedu, Nurokinan Chimbar","doi":"10.1111/rode.12668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12668","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we examine how remittances, an outcome of labor mobility, affect labor market activities in Ghana using detailed household and individual‐level data. This is important, considering the extensive literature that has documented the remittance–poverty reduction nexus. First, we find a strong negative association between household remittance‐receiving status and individual labor supply decisions using instrumental variable estimation techniques. Second, we find the depressing effect of remittances on labor supply decisions to be much stronger in rural areas. Rural women who reside in remittance‐receiving households are less likely to be in the labor force compared with those who do not reside in such households. Remittances have very little impact on labor supply decisions in urban areas. Our findings support that remittances can exacerbate long‐term poverty reduction in rural areas through lower labor force participation, and as such rural‐based and gender‐based interventions may be needed to help redirect remittance income.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121233533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
CPI in the Time of Coronavirus 冠状病毒时期的CPI
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3754950
Kam Yu
{"title":"CPI in the Time of Coronavirus","authors":"Kam Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3754950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3754950","url":null,"abstract":"The paper discusses some conceptual issues in the economic approach of price indices during a pandemic.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"130 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121190751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth 预测密度聚集:全球GDP增长模型
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513545653.001
Francesca Caselli, F. Grigoli, R. Lafarguette, Changchun Wang
{"title":"Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth","authors":"Francesca Caselli, F. Grigoli, R. Lafarguette, Changchun Wang","doi":"10.5089/9781513545653.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513545653.001","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries’ predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally,\u0000we model non-parametrically the contemporaneous interdependencies across the United States,\u0000the euro area, and China via a conditional kernel density estimation of a joint distribution. Then, we characterize the potential ampli?cation e?ects stemming from other large economies in each region—also with kernel density estimations—and the reaction of all other economies with para-metric assumptions. Importantly, each economy’s predictive density also depends on a set of observable country-speci?c factors. Finally, the use of sampling techniques allows us to aggregate individual countries’ densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth distribution. Out-of-sample metrics con?rm the accuracy of our approach.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131149743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Regulation and Income Inequality in the United States 美国的管制与收入不平等
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3636126
D. Chambers, Colin O’Reilly
{"title":"Regulation and Income Inequality in the United States","authors":"D. Chambers, Colin O’Reilly","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3636126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3636126","url":null,"abstract":"Income inequality in the United States has risen over the past several decades. Over the same period, federal regulatory restrictions have increased. An emerging literature shows that regulations can have regressive effects on the distribution of income, exacerbating inequality. The Federal Regulation and State Enterprise (FRASE) index quantifies the regulatory restrictions that apply to each US state by industrial composition. We construct a panel of 50 US states from 1997 to 2015 to test whether states exposed to more federal regulatory restrictions have higher levels of income inequality. The results indicate that a 10 percent increase in federal regulation is associated with an approximate 0.5 percent increase in income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient. When states are rank-ordered by average Gini coefficient, a 0.5 percent increase in income inequality will typically result in a two-position decline in state ranking.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115344335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Distilling Large Information Sets to Forecast Commodity Returns: Automatic Variable Selection or Hidden Markov Models? 提取大信息集预测商品收益:自动变量选择还是隐马尔可夫模型?
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3606933
Massimo Guidolin, Manuela Pedio
{"title":"Distilling Large Information Sets to Forecast Commodity Returns: Automatic Variable Selection or Hidden Markov Models?","authors":"Massimo Guidolin, Manuela Pedio","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3606933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3606933","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the out-of-sample, recursive predictive accuracy for (fully hedged) commodity future returns of two sets of forecasting models, i.e., hidden Markov chain models in which the coefficients of predictive regressions follow a regime switching process and stepwise variable selection algorithms in which the coefficients of predictors not selected are set to zero. We perform the analysis under four alternative loss functions, i.e., squared and the absolute value, and the realized, portfolio Sharpe ratio and MV utility when the portfolio is built upon optimal weights computed solving a standard MV portfolio problem. We find that neither HMM or stepwise regressions manage to systematically (or even just frequently) outperform a plain vanilla AR benchmark according to RMSFE or MAFE statistical loss functions. However, in particular stepwise variable selection methods create economic value in out-of-sample meanvariance portfolio tests. Because we impose transaction costs not only ex post but also ex ante, so that an investor uses the forecasts of a model only when they increase expected utility, the economic value improvement is maximum when transaction costs are taken into account.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126364784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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