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Persistent Inequality in Guinea-Bissau: The Role of France, the CFA Franc, and Long-Term Currency Imperialism 几内亚比绍的持续不平等:法国、非洲金融共同体法郎和长期货币帝国主义的角色
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3591595
M. Ndiaye
{"title":"Persistent Inequality in Guinea-Bissau: The Role of France, the CFA Franc, and Long-Term Currency Imperialism","authors":"M. Ndiaye","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3591595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3591595","url":null,"abstract":"Guinea-Bissau is among the world’s most unequal countries. Its use of the CFA currency, pegged to the euro and controlled by France, raises continuing concern . This paper investigates the impact of joining the C.F.A zone (1997) on Guinea-Bissau per capita GDP, fisheries capture, and rice yields. In the absence of randomization, we apply a synthetic control method SCM (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003) to build a counterfactual using a weighted combination of potential countries as control units and estimate the effects of entering the CFA zone on economic growth. The SCM results for Guinea-Bissau suggested that joining the CFA union contributed substantially to the decline of per capita GDP, fisheries capture, and rice yields. Other economic indicators such as cotton seed net per capita production and cashew nuts yields included in our study were inconclusive. Overall, Guinea-Bissau did not show evidence of economic growth after it entered the Franc zone. The country has been in long-term decline since then.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125393611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Empirical Analysis of RMB's Central Parity Formation Mechanism: From August 2015 to November 2019 人民币中间价形成机制实证分析:2015年8月- 2019年11月
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3806482
Zhuoyan Ma
{"title":"Empirical Analysis of RMB's Central Parity Formation Mechanism: From August 2015 to November 2019","authors":"Zhuoyan Ma","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3806482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3806482","url":null,"abstract":"This thesis works to identify the economic determinants of renminbi(RMB) central parity rate formation from August 2015 to November 2019. It also accesses the effect of the countercyclical factor in the determination of the central parity rate. In a vector error correction framework, the role of the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and RMB currency index are identified before the implementation of countercyclical factors. During the implementation, onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate both loses part of their explanatory power. Offshore RMB exchange rates even become statistically insignificant in the determination of the central parity rate. After setting the countercyclical factor as neutral in the mechanism, both onshore and offshore exchange rates regain their power and stay significant in the model. The role of the US dollar index gradually lessens in the central parity formation as time goes by. What is surprising is the RMB currency index becomes statistically insignificant when the countercyclical factor is removed in the central parity rate mechanism.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"305 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117246386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to Model Forward Guidance and Address a Larger Puzzle 如何建立前瞻性指导模型并解决更大的难题
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3602211
Derin Aksit
{"title":"How to Model Forward Guidance and Address a Larger Puzzle","authors":"Derin Aksit","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3602211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3602211","url":null,"abstract":"Forward guidance during the zero lower bound period is typically modeled as news that alters the expected liftoff date of the policy rate, assuming that agents do not expect a policy rate hike in near future. Using U.S. high-frequency data, I empirically reject this assumption and show that forward guidance affects the entire term structure of expected rates. Introducing this estimated forward guidance shock in a standard New Keynesian model substantially magnifies the \"forward guidance puzzle\", i.e. the excessive model-implied response to forward guidance. I show that allowing agents to update their macroeconomic expectations in the pessimistic direction following a forward guidance easing explains this larger puzzle per se, unlike the common approach of introducing a discount parameter due to a deviation from a baseline assumption. In addition, I find that the puzzle can also be explained by sticky information general equilibrium models.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126689080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty: A Big Data Analysis for India 不确定性的宏观经济影响:对印度的大数据分析
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3852940
Nalin Priyaranjan, B. Pratap
{"title":"Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty: A Big Data Analysis for India","authors":"Nalin Priyaranjan, B. Pratap","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3852940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3852940","url":null,"abstract":"Uncertainty about the current state and near-term outlook of an economy as well as the likely course of future policy actions can prompt economic agents to alter their decisions to spend, save, invest and hire. In this paper, we construct three alternative indices to measure the level of uncertainty for the Indian economy. The first two uncertainty indices are constructed by applying text mining and natural language processing (NLP) techniques on a dataset compiled from leading Indian business newspapers. The third index is based on internet search intensity data available from Google Trends. Empirical findings from a Local Projections-based econometric framework suggest that uncertainty shocks influence financial markets as well as the real economy in India. Our results indicate that both investment activity and real GDP growth slow down when uncertainty increases in the economy. Such uncertainty indices can help strengthen policy simulation exercises to study the impact of low/high uncertainty scenarios and also improve near-term projection of macroeconomic variables which exhibit high degree of sensitivity to uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114950487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing 保持社会距离的部门效应
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3569446
J. Barrot, Basile Grassi, Julien Sauvagnat
{"title":"Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing","authors":"J. Barrot, Basile Grassi, Julien Sauvagnat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3569446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3569446","url":null,"abstract":"The outbreak of the COVID-19 virus has led many states to take the drastic measures of social distancing. Using US executive order, occupation, and survey data, we measure the fall in labor supply due to these measures. Starting from a model of production networks, we analyze the sectoral effects of these labor shocks for the United States. We find that nonlinearities in the production network account for around half of the drop in GDP associated to the implementation of social distancing measures. The model also generates realistic dispersion in sectoral output change.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131425998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 188
Covid-Induced Economic Uncertainty 新冠病毒引发的经济不确定性
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26983
S. Baker, N. Bloom, S. Davis, S. Terry
{"title":"Covid-Induced Economic Uncertainty","authors":"S. Baker, N. Bloom, S. Davis, S. Terry","doi":"10.3386/w26983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26983","url":null,"abstract":"Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures. We use these indicators to document and quantify the enormous increase in economic uncertainty in the past several weeks. We also illustrate how these forward-looking measures can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, we feed COVID-induced first-moment and uncertainty shocks into an estimated model of disaster effects developed by Baker, Bloom and Terry (2020). Our illustrative exercise implies a year-on-year contraction in U.S. real GDP of nearly 11 percent as of 2020 Q4, with a 90 percent confidence interval extending to a nearly 20 percent contraction. The exercise says that about half of the forecasted output contraction reflects a negative effect of COVID-induced uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117193354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 873
Theoretically Proposed Policy Instrument to Resolve the Negative Effect of Inflation Flow Into a Positive Macroeconomic Growth: The Case of Sierra Leone Economy 解决通货膨胀流入对宏观经济正增长的负面影响的理论政策工具——以塞拉利昂经济为例
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3565882
Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu
{"title":"Theoretically Proposed Policy Instrument to Resolve the Negative Effect of Inflation Flow Into a Positive Macroeconomic Growth: The Case of Sierra Leone Economy","authors":"Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3565882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3565882","url":null,"abstract":"The paper empirically examines the predictive factor of the inflation rate observed to be the vector force of macroeconomic growth decline or rise in the Sierra Leone economy. Thereby adopting a statistical tool of an exogenous univariate auto-regression integrated moving average to build a forecasting model between the open-market-exchange rate and the inflation rate to establish the degree of correlation effect as a basis to theoretically prescribe a policy instrument, a means to maximize economic benefit for sustainable macroeconomic growth. This leads to an established finding that an average price shift of +/- 0.032 of the leone currency price with the US dollar at the open market will always cause a percentage point change of inflation to the endogenous economy when all other factors remain constant.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132999118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Too Many Shocks Spoil the Interpretation 太多的冲击破坏了解释
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3556976
A. Pagan, Tim Robinson
{"title":"Too Many Shocks Spoil the Interpretation","authors":"A. Pagan, Tim Robinson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3556976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3556976","url":null,"abstract":"We show that when a model has more shocks than observed variables the estimated filtered and smoothed shocks will be correlated. This is despite no correlation being present in the data generating process. Additionally the estimated shock innovations may be autocorrelated. These correlations limit the relevance of impulse responses, which assume uncorrelated shocks, for interpreting the data. Excess shocks occur frequently, e.g. in Unobserved-Component (UC) models, filters, including Hodrick- Prescott (1997), and some Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Using several UC models and an estimated DSGE model, Ireland (2011), we demonstrate that sizable correlations among the estimated shocks can result.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124028268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Scelta Intertemporale (Lectures on Intertemporal Choice) 跨期选择讲座
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3351206
Maria-Augusta Miceli
{"title":"Scelta Intertemporale (Lectures on Intertemporal Choice)","authors":"Maria-Augusta Miceli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3351206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3351206","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Italian Abstract:</b> L'obiettivo di questo capitolo è mostrare come la scelta intertemporale in contesto di certezza può essere assimilata ad una normale decisione microeconomica statica. Vengono effettuati gli esercizi i statica comparata sui parametri per individiare gli effetti di sotituzione, reddito e reddito da dotazione.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> The aim of this chapter is to show how the intertemporal consumption choice can be considered equivalent to a static microeconomic decision. Compaatice statics exercises are developed to compute substitution, income and edowment effects.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123400295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inequality Comparisons with Ordinal Data 与有序数据的不等式比较
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-09 DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/56rmz
S. Jenkins
{"title":"Inequality Comparisons with Ordinal Data","authors":"S. Jenkins","doi":"10.31235/osf.io/56rmz","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/56rmz","url":null,"abstract":"Non-intersection of appropriately-defined Generalized Lorenz (GL) curves is equivalent to a unanimous ranking of distributions of ordinal data by all Cowell and Flachaire (Economica 2017) indices of inequality and by a new index based on GL curve areas. Comparisons of life satisfaction distributions for six countries reveal a substantial number of unanimous inequality rankings. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"157 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134362115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
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