Tyler Atkinson, Michael D. Plante, A. W. Richter, Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
{"title":"Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty","authors":"Tyler Atkinson, Michael D. Plante, A. W. Richter, Nathaniel A. Throckmorton","doi":"10.24149/wp2009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Macroeconomic uncertainty regularly fluctuates in the data. Theory suggests complementarity between capital and labor inputs in production can generate time-varying endogenous uncertainty because the concavity in the production function influences how output responds to productivity shocks in different states of the economy. This paper examines whether complementarity is a quantitatively significant source of time-varying endogenous uncertainty by estimating a nonlinear real business cycle model with a constant elasticity of substitution production function and exogenous volatility shocks. When matching labor share and uncertainty moments, we find at most 16% of the volatility of uncertainty is endogenous. An estimated model without exogenous volatility shocks can endogenously generate all of the empirical variation in uncertainty, but only at the expense of significantly overstating the volatility of the labor share.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122567432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sebastian Hauptmeier, F. Holm-Hadulla, Katerina Nikalexi
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Regional Inequality","authors":"Sebastian Hauptmeier, F. Holm-Hadulla, Katerina Nikalexi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3564206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3564206","url":null,"abstract":"We study the impact of monetary policy on regional inequality using granular data on economic activity at the city- and county-level in Europe. We document pronounced heterogeneity in the regional patterns of monetary policy transmission. The output response to monetary policy shocks is stronger and more persistent in poorer regions, with the difference becoming particularly pronounced in the extreme tails of the distribution. Regions in the lower parts of the distribution exhibit hysteresis, consisting of long-lived adjustments in employment and labor productivity in response to the shocks. As a consequence, policy tightening aggravates regional inequality and policy easing mitigates it. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E52","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127337638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sectoral Inflation Persistence, Market Concentration, and Imperfect Common Knowledge","authors":"R. Kato, Tatsushi Okuda, Takayuki Tsuruga","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3562060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562060","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies have stressed that inflation dynamics exhibit substantial dispersion across sectors. Using US producer price data, we present evidence that sectoral inflation persistence is negatively correlated with market concentration, which is difficult to reconcile with the prediction of the standard model of monopolistic competition. To better explain the data, we incorporate imperfect common knowledge into the monopolistic competition model introduced by Melitz and Ottaviano (2008). In the model, pricing complementarity among firms increases as market concentration decreases. Because higher pricing complementarity generates greater inflation persistence, our model successfully replicates the observed negative correlation between inflation persistence and market concentration across sectors.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123400633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Immigration and Economic Freedom of the US States: Does the Institutional Quality of Immigrants’ Origin Countries Matter?","authors":"Alexandre Padilla, N. Cachanosky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3316415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3316415","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether the institutional quality of immigrants’ origin countries matters when testing the relationship between immigration and the US states’ economic freedom scores. Our results show that, in the short run, the relationship between economic freedom and immigrants from countries ranked in the second quartile of the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World report is negative and statistically significant, but it is not economically significant. In the long run, the relationship between economic freedom and immigrants from countries ranked in the bottom quartile of the EFW report is positive and statistically significant, but it is not economically significant. For other immigrant groups coming from countries that rank higher in terms of economic freedom, the relationship is negative but is not statistically significant or is weakly significant. Our results are robust to various specifications.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"4568 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121029391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does E-Procurement Matter for Economic Growth? Subnational Evidence from Australia","authors":"T. Emery, L. Mélon, R. Spruk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3535070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3535070","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the impact of e-procurement on economic growth. To this end, we exploit an ambitious implementation of large-scale mandatory e-procurement platform in New South Wales and Western Australia. By matching pre-reform growth dynamics and its covariates with the rest of the world, we provide a plausible source of variation in growth that allows us to build a counterfactual growth scenario in the hypothetical absence of the reform. Using more than 100 countries in country-state matched balanced sample, our evidence highlights a mixed impact of mandatory e-procurement on growth. We find that the institutional quality of governance and policy implementation underlines the magnitude of the growth effect. In particular, our findings contrast a significant positive impact of the mandatory e-procurement on the economic growth of Western Australia with a zero impact of the similar reform in New South Wales. We argue that this contrast arises from the differences in transaction costs, quality of governance, and strength of regulatory oversight that either foster or hamper the opportunities for corruption. The estimated impact of reform is robust across a multitude of spatial and temporal placebo studies, choice of samples and does not seem to be driven by pre-existing shocks or prevalent economic conditions.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126639048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Ex-Ante Economic Analysis of Investments in Large Dams: A Brief History","authors":"D. Whittington, V. Smith","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3670763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3670763","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an overview of six developments in the ex ante economic analyses of large dams: Adding Systems Analysis; Incorporating Multiple Objectives; Incorporating Environment and Social Losses; Recognizing Economy-Wide Linkages; Modeling Non-cooperative Behavior; and Dealing with Uncertainty. The paper briefly discusses the evolution of each development and summarizes how the research findings have been integrated into the practice of using economic analysis to evaluate potential public investments in large dams. The paper also considers how ex post analyses of dams have been conducted and whether the insights from them have influenced the ex ante analyses that followed that research.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121528480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks","authors":"Nils Maehle","doi":"10.5089/9781513526850.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513526850.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses operational issues for countries that want to reform their monetary policy frameworks. It argues that stabilizing short-term interest rates on a day-to-day basis has significant advantages, and thus that short-term interest rates, not reserve money, in most cases should be the daily operating target, including for countries relying on a money targeting policy strategy. The paper discusses how a policy formulation framework based on monetary aggregates can be combined with an operational framework that ensures more stable and predictable short-term rates to enhance policy transmission. It also discusses how to best configure an interest-rate-based operational framework when markets are underdeveloped and liqudity management capacity is weak.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124916677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Do U.S. Visa Policies Affect Unauthorized Immigration?","authors":"B. Kovak, Rebecca Lessem","doi":"10.3386/w26790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26790","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How would increasing the number of visas available to potential migrants affect unauthorized immigration from Mexico to the U.S.? Current U.S. policy bans people who are deported from receiving legal status for a period of time. This policy aims to serve as an additional deterrent to unauthorized immigration, but may be ineffective given that most potential Mexican migrants have an extremely low probability of ever being able to legally move to the U.S. We develop a dynamic discrete location choice model, which we estimate using data from the Mexican Migration Project, and consider various counterfactual policies that vary the intensity of enforcement and access to work visas. We find that legal entry bans for deported individuals are ineffective at current rates of legal immigration, but that increased legalization rates would amplify the deterrent effects of deportation. We also show that a temporary work visa program would yield similar deterrent effects as an increase in permanent legalization without resulting in very large increases in the total stock of migrants residing in the U.S. These findings have important implications for structuring future immigration reforms.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123421112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of a Minimum Wage Change on the Distribution of Wages and Household Income","authors":"P. Redmond, Karina Doorley, S. McGuinness","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpaa048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpaa048","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We use distribution regression analysis to study the impact of a 6% increase in the Irish minimum wage on the distribution of hourly wages and household income. Wage inequality, measured by the ratio of wages in the 90th and 10th percentiles and the 75th and 25th percentiles, decreased by approximately 8 and 4%, respectively. The results point towards wage spillover effects up to the 30th percentile of the wage distribution. We show that minimum wage workers are spread throughout the household income distribution and are often located in high-income households. Therefore, while we observe strong effects on the wage distribution, the impact of a minimum wage increase on the household income distribution is quite limited.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125822166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Yoshino, Monzur Hossain, Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary
{"title":"Enhancing Financial Connectivity between Asia and Europe: Implications for Infrastructure Convergence between the Two Regions","authors":"N. Yoshino, Monzur Hossain, Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3694971","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3694971","url":null,"abstract":"While discussing the enhancement of the connectivity between Europe and Asia, we explore a new area of cooperation, which is the use of European long-term investment funds in Asia’s infrastructure. We argue that, if Asian countries agree to offer 50% of their spillover revenue to infrastructure investors from Europe, it will increase the rate of return of long-term investment funds, such as pension and insurance funds. This will create a win–win situation for both Asia and Europe, because investment in infrastructure will enhance various spillover benefits and increase the savings in these countries, which will ultimately enhance the economic growth in the Asian countries. On the other hand, idle European funds will generate higher returns from infrastructure investments in Asia, which will also be beneficial for European countries. This approach will reduce the divergence in infrastructure between the two regions and encourage regional connectivity, such as the People’s Republic of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. With some empirical evidence, we also highlight the methods of spillover revenue collection and approaches to share the revenues. It is important for Asian countries to review the approaches and develop some institutional mechanisms to allow private investors in infrastructure. Moreover, Asian and European leaders, for example in the Asia–Europe Meeting, might devise appropriate methods that would allow European long-term investors to invest in Asian infrastructure needs.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":" 17","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114053470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}