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Immigration and the U.S. Labor Market: A Look Ahead 移民和美国劳动力市场:展望未来
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3521699
H. Holzer
{"title":"Immigration and the U.S. Labor Market: A Look Ahead","authors":"H. Holzer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3521699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3521699","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. labor market will be buffeted by major changes in the next few decades, such as an aging population, automation that displaces workers and requires skill adjustments, and increases in independent or informal work and \"fissured\" workplaces. These forces will likely raise worker productivity over time while also raising inequality, reducing labor force participation and creating worker shortages in high-demand industries. In this context, immigration will help reduce costs in key high-demand industries (like health care and elder care), raise labor force and economic growth, and contribute somewhat to the nation's fiscal balance. Highly-educated immigrants will notably contribute to economic productivity and dynamism; but less-educated immigrants may substitute for native-born non-college workers and thereby further contribute to earnings inequality. Reforms should therefore modestly increase overall immigration over time, while shifting its composition somewhat toward more-skilled and labor-market-driven migrants. These reforms should occur within the broader context of \"comprehensive\" reform that also raises enforcement efforts against illegal immigrant flows while establishing a path to citizenship for the currently undocumented. These changes should also be tied to a range of efforts to raise earnings among all non-college workers.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126565106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Moving Average Threshold Heterogeneous Autoregressive (MAT-HAR) Models 移动平均阈值异构自回归(MAT-HAR)模型
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3426182
Kaiji Motegi, X. Cai, S. Hamori, Haifeng Xu
{"title":"Moving Average Threshold Heterogeneous Autoregressive (MAT-HAR) Models","authors":"Kaiji Motegi, X. Cai, S. Hamori, Haifeng Xu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3426182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3426182","url":null,"abstract":"We propose moving average threshold heterogeneous autoregressive (MAT-HAR) models as a novel combination of heterogeneous autoregression (HAR) and threshold autoregression (TAR). The MAT-HAR has multiple groups of lags of a target series, and a threshold term can appear in each group. The threshold is a moving average of lagged target series, which guarantees time-varying thresholds and simple estimation via least squares. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that the MAT-HAR has sharp in-sample and out-of-sample performance. An empirical application on the industrial production of Japan suggests that significant threshold effects exist, and the MAT-HAR has a higher forecast accuracy than the HAR.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128613570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Does the Business Cycle Affect Utilization of Long-Term Care among the Elderly? 经济周期是否影响老年人对长期护理的利用?
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3537262
Reagan A. Baughman, J. Hurdelbrink
{"title":"Does the Business Cycle Affect Utilization of Long-Term Care among the Elderly?","authors":"Reagan A. Baughman, J. Hurdelbrink","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3537262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3537262","url":null,"abstract":"Objectives: To estimate the effect of macroeconomic conditions, as measured by unemployment rates, on the probability of receiving long-term care, the amount of care received, and mechanisms that could link care receipt to economic conditions. Methods: The study uses data from the 1998 – 2012 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. Dependent variables are indicators for any use of nursing home care, paid home care and unpaid home care, as well as conditional number of home caregivers and hours. In the regression analysis, effects are estimated using within-state changes in unemployment over time in a state-year fixed effects model. Results: In the full sample, higher unemployment rates are associated with a marginally significant decrease in the probability of being in a nursing home, fewer hours of paid home care and more hours of unpaid home care. The effects appear to be driven by women rather than men and the negative effects of unemployment on utilization of care are larger and more significant among the unmarried. The most likely mechanisms for these effects are significant decreases in both wealth and employment of adult children during recessions. Discussion: Some types of long-term care receipt are sensitive to economic downturns, and this does not appear to be explained by changes in health status or functional limitations over the business cycle. Given that affordability of care is likely to be driving a decrease in care, policy may be required to ensure that the needs of vulnerable elderly are met.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"59 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121009430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated Hank Model 微观跳跃，宏观驼峰:估计汉克模型中的货币政策和商业周期
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26647
Adrien Auclert, M. Rognlie, Ludwig Straub
{"title":"Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated Hank Model","authors":"Adrien Auclert, M. Rognlie, Ludwig Straub","doi":"10.3386/w26647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26647","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model with sticky household expectations that matches existing microeconomic evidence on marginal propensities to consume and macroeconomic evidence on the impulse response to a monetary policy shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for investment in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, as high MPCs amplify the investment response in the data. This force also generates a procyclical response of consumption to investment shocks, leading our model to infer a central role for these shocks as a source of business cycles.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132592165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 86
How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America? 拉丁美洲的财政乘数有多大?
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513526836.001
J. Restrepo
{"title":"How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?","authors":"J. Restrepo","doi":"10.5089/9781513526836.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513526836.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses the strategy and data of Blanchard and Perotti (BP) to identify fiscal shocks and estimate fiscal multipliers for the United States. With these results, it computes the cumulative multiplier of Ramey and Zubairy (2018), now common in the literature. It finds that, contrary to the peak and through multipliers reported by BP, the cumulative tax multiplier is much larger than the cumulative spending one. Hence, the conclusions depend on the definition of multiplier. This methodology is also used to estimate the effects of fiscal shocks on economic activity in eight Latin American countries. The results suggest that the fiscal multipliers vary significantly across countries, and in some cases multipliers are larger than previously estimated.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"272 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115081720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
BRI 2.0: Cosmetic Repairs or a Change of Course? BRI 2.0:美容修复还是改变方向?
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-30 DOI: 10.54648/trad2020034
Z. Wang, Jianfu Chen
{"title":"BRI 2.0: Cosmetic Repairs or a Change of Course?","authors":"Z. Wang, Jianfu Chen","doi":"10.54648/trad2020034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54648/trad2020034","url":null,"abstract":"At the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in April 2019, China began to directly address some of the criticisms of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) practices, and started to emphasize the needs of local communities, economic and environmental sustainability, and mutual understanding among all parties and people involved in BRI projects. China also began to stress the importance of international law principles and common practices, and a multilateral approach to the implementation of BRI. Together with its pledge, made in September 2018, to waive debts for selected least developed African countries, there is now talk of a ‘BRI 2.0’. However, is this BRI 2.0 fundamentally different from its original version?\u0000This article starts with a brief examination of the notion of BRI and its development in the last six years. It then reviews the various criticisms levelled against the BRI and its practices. This is followed by an analysis of recent responses from China to various concerns and misgivings. In its analysis, this article examines the BRI in a geopolitical context and argues that much more fundamental changes are needed for the ‘BRI 2.0’ to gain genuine support from Western developed nations.\u0000Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China, Investment, Geopolitics, Sustainability, Global Governance","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116293303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Inspecting Driving Forces of Business Cycles in Korea 分析韩国经济周期的动力
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3516547
Yongseung Jung
{"title":"Inspecting Driving Forces of Business Cycles in Korea","authors":"Yongseung Jung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3516547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3516547","url":null,"abstract":"This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130032801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does a Good Central Bank Governor Make a Difference? 一个好的央行行长会有影响吗?
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3507985
Carmine Russo
{"title":"Does a Good Central Bank Governor Make a Difference?","authors":"Carmine Russo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3507985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3507985","url":null,"abstract":"The president Mario Draghi ended his mandate as European Central Bank governor the last October 31. They have not been easy years for him, in the midst of the 2008 and the European public debt crisis while, in more recent time the Brexit situation, the new wave of anti-euro governments, the American duties war and the German slowdown. Different are the Draghi's speeches and interventions through which somehow he \"saved\" the Eurozone, from the famous \"Whatever it takes\" and \"The Euro is irreversible\" to the European unconventional measure Quantitative Easing (QE). I'll examine the sign, let's say, of the \"Draghi's effect\" thus, what would have happened if Draghi had not been the ECB president? Using the GDP percentage growth as a proxy of the Draghi's impact, I found that the \"Draghi's effect\" is positive, in general and mostly for the countries most affected by the Great Recession (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece). As conclusion without (Super) Draghi and his measures, the Euro Area members would have been in a worst situation in terms of GDP growth.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133341323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Role of Households’ Borrowing Constraints in the Transmission of Monetary Policy 家庭借贷约束在货币政策传导中的作用
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3508651
Fergus Cumming, P. Hubert
{"title":"The Role of Households’ Borrowing Constraints in the Transmission of Monetary Policy","authors":"Fergus Cumming, P. Hubert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3508651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3508651","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the distribution of household debt. Using an original loan‑level dataset covering the universe of UK mortgages, we assess the effect of monetary shocks on aggregate consumption by exploiting time variation in a measure of the proportion of households close to their borrowing constraint. We find that monetary policy is most potent when there is a large share of constrained households. In contrast, we find no evidence that the average level of borrowing relative‑to‑income of the household sector affects the transmission of monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115005960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Condicionalidad en los estabilizadores macroeconómicos. Una visión jurídica a un problema político (Conditionality in Macroeconomic Stabilizers. A Legal Vision to a Political Issue) 宏观经济稳定器的条件。政治问题的法律观点(宏观经济稳定器中的条件)。他的父亲是一名律师，母亲是一名律师。
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3489846
Justo Corti Varela
{"title":"Condicionalidad en los estabilizadores macroeconómicos. Una visión jurídica a un problema político (Conditionality in Macroeconomic Stabilizers. A Legal Vision to a Political Issue)","authors":"Justo Corti Varela","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3489846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3489846","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Los estabilizadores macroeconómicos son un elemento esencial de la Unión Económica y Monetaria. Algunos ya están en vigor (Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad) pero otros están siendo diseñados como parte de la futura \"Unión Fiscal\". El elemento más controvertido de estos instrumentos económicos son ciertos requisitos (condicionalidad) que es impuesta a los países que se benefician de la asistencia fundándose. La condicionalidad está fundada en mandatos legales, en principio, fijada en artículos del tratado de la UE, en particular la cláusula \"no bailout\", pero también en instrumentos políticos como el Informe de los Cuatro y el Informe de los Cinco Presidentes. En este documento analizaremos diferentes aproximaciones para encontrar soluciones a este problema, en especial cómo cumplir la condicionalidad sin reducir la efectividad de tales instrumentos.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> Macroeconomic Stabilizers are a key element of the current European Economic Union. Some of them are in force (ESM) but others are being designed as part of the future \"Fiscal Union\". The most controversial point of these economic instruments is certain requirements (conditionality) that are imposed to assisted countries. Conditionality is founded on legal mandates, in principle, located EU treaties articles (the no bailout clause), but also in political instruments such as the Four and Five Presidents' reports. In this paper we will analyze different approaches to find solutions to this issue, specially how to fulfill the conditionality without reducing the effectiveness of such instruments.","PeriodicalId":155479,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121604031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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