Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development最新文献

{"title":"Sustainable infrastructure for Nigeria’s sustainable economic development: whither transportation or electric power supply?","authors":"A. Ojo","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2021.2012364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2021.2012364","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Infrastructures, publicly or privately provided, are widely believed to be the foundation for economic development. Indeed, studies have demonstrated the relationship between physical infrastructures (especially economic infrastructures) and economic growth. But not much is known in Nigeria about sustainable economic development induced by identified sustainable infrastructure. That is, economic development and infrastructure development that provokes local inclusiveness, economic progress and environmental friendliness. Modelling the effect of a range of time series data on GDP per capita, this study found electric power supply to have a strong relationship with sustainable development but not sufficient to provoke economic development in Nigeria. It concluded that electric power supply does not serve as catalyst for sustainable economic development in Nigeria, as recommended. It is argued here that there is a need to focus on critical economic infrastructure provision and investment, which will in turn have linked effects to boost other economic sectors through inclusive and environment friendly policies and programmes.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132265529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"International Transport Forum (ITF) Round Table on Broadening the Scope of Transport Appraisal to Capture the Full Impact of Investments, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris 29th September–1st October 2021.","authors":"Daniel Durrant","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2021.2014643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2021.2014643","url":null,"abstract":"Held over three days, 47 participants from 14 ITF member countries attended this virtual Round Table, whose aim was to reflect upon recent trends in transport appraisal. With Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and its limitations a key theme there was debate over whether it is a tool that is so compromised by distortions that it is no longer suitable or is a useful ‘workhorse’ that will always form the core of transport appraisal. A debate that will undoubtedly continue to run. Discussions covered a range of other topics, clustered around three key aspects of this debate: the role of equity and equity of access to the benefits of transport for different places and groups in society, the value of ex-post analysis and the role of stakeholders. This report represents one perspective on the event and its relation to key issues in mega infrastructure planning. An overall report will be available on the ITF website (see references). Attendance was a good mix of academics and practitioners, also reflected in the presentations. Although the balance was slightly towards the former, many of the speakers either crossed over into practice or brought considerable practical experience. The event was held under Chatham House rules, so the only points attributed to speakers are those reflecting their presentations.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123980685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time is money, but sometimes it costs more: an economic history perspective into nuclear projects’ pitfalls","authors":"M. Rubio-Varas","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2022.2092993","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2022.2092993","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The changing socio-economic context has a crucial impact in nuclear decisions and execution of the projects. The nuclear projects initiated over the past 20 years reduced their construction times relative to those initiated before. Of the over 600 the nuclear projects built over the past 70 years only 3% took longer than 15 years to complete. Analysing the lengthiest projects within their economic context, reveals that ‘when and where’, (i.e., the contextual risks) explains most the delays, thus questioning whether nuclear power plant projects are inherently examples of the megaproject ‘pathologies.’ The analysis of the lengthiest nuclear power projects makes evident that the failure to deliver nuclear plants on time and within budget was related to the historical period and/or the specific location more than to any inherent characteristics of nuclear power plants. Stakeholders of nuclear projects (and megaprojects in general) should be attentive to socio-economic changes and macro-economic impacts to avoid pitfalls.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129883681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2022-23 OMEGA Centre Seminar Programme, University College London, London, UK","authors":"C. Osborne","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2021.2137759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2021.2137759","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115416451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The property sector approach to major projects risk, uncertainty and complexity","authors":"K. Perry","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2021.1932017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2021.1932017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper considers the approach that the UK property sector typically adopts when addressing a major project, primarily from the perspective of the key private sector players of developer and investor. With Infrastructure promoters now looking for real estate to contribute to funding - (i.e. land value capture) the paper gives key insights to the property approach that needs to be considered It describes how a successful major property project approaches issues such as sustainability, land assembly, planning, development impact, project management, construction, finance (including PPP models), letting of space, and forward sales. This paper was originally written before the 2008 Financial Crisis and the impacts of that context change on risk are in part still playing out, together now with the 2020 ‘Covid’ Pandemic. Comments are therefore wherever possible made in an assumed ‘stable market’ context.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"161 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116698254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modern tools for holistic assessment of ambiguity and risk: a case study of three Latin American Mega Transport Projects","authors":"J. Alberti","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2021.1997457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2021.1997457","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The objective of this article has been to use Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) to assess the construction risks of three mega transport projects (MTPs) in Latin America and illustrate the relative importance of ambiguous risk factors in this region. The selected multiple-case study comprised the following three cases: Ferroanel from Sao Paulo in Brazil; Central Railway of Uruguay; and Line 1 of the Bogota Metro in Colombia. By applying FST to this set of MTPs, which includes projects developed in different institutional contexts, this paper shows that ill-defined construction risks are especially important in megaprojects in Latin America. Consequently, it also reveals that risk assessment should not be circumscribed to the sole use of numeric, probability-based analyses, which are incapable of considering ambiguous risks. On the contrary, this paper demonstrates the potential of using other methodologies, such as FST, which also incorporate perceptions of the institutional contexts in order to improve risk management in megaprojects of the region.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125373721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic lessons from military planning under conditions of uncertainty, complexity and risk","authors":"J. Stone","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2021.1984689","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2021.1984689","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background Challenges posed by uncertainty, complexity and risk are explored in relation to military strategy. Method Clausewitz’s theory of war provides a lens through which to examine historical developments in strategy and their accompanying responses to uncertainty, complexity and risk. Results Uncertainty, complexity and risk remain challenges to the formulation of strategy across changing political and technological contexts. Discussion Possible parallels with complex urban-planning projects are considered.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126626644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mega infrastructure and strategic risk mitigation: planning, management and outcomes","authors":"E. Ward","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2022.2035553","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2022.2035553","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper presents the findings of a multi-case study evaluation of megaproject decision making as it relates to the analysis of strategic risk in the planning and appraisal of mega transport infrastructure projects. The paper reviews literature on risk planning and management from a set of papers commissioned by the OMEGA Centre at University College London (UCL) focusing on the treatment of risk and uncertainty in professions and disciplines where these phenomena have long been at the milieu of their planning and management responses. The findings of the literature review are combined to construct an evaluative framework with specific application to mega transport projects. This framework encompasses aspects of strategic planning, contextual awareness and stakeholder management. It is then applied via a qualitative analysis to aspects of the decision-making processes of 27 megaprojects in nine advanced economies of the world. The key findings of this evaluation suggest that past megaproject decision making is excessively focused on short-term outcomes, with little evidence of the rigorous or systematic analysis of risk and uncertainties that befalls such projects outside of project management and delivery concerns. Drawing from the lessons of past research and practice, the paper concludes by suggesting the essential ingredients of an approach that more explicitly incorporates risks and uncertainties that arise from outside the project portfolio. The author advocates a more ‘open-systems’ approach to megaproject planning and appraisal for infrastructure development that is much more sensitive to changing challenges and uncertainties of new contexts, and how these can affect project outcomes and impacts over the longer term. Whilst the paper draws upon research undertaken between 2005 and 2012, the findings are deemed of continued relevance today in such uncertain times, given the global geopolitical and economic uncertainties and multiple challenges of climate change, pandemics and inequalities which underline the precarious nature of risk management and decision making which prioritises short term project outputs over long term project outcomes and impacts.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129820177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recalibrating the Belt and Road Initiative amidst deep uncertainties","authors":"Keren Zhu, Rui Shi, R. Lempert","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2021.1983281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2021.1983281","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure and connectivity plan initiated by China, has undergone significant changes in its policy implementation environment since it was first proposed in 2013. Faced with escalating tensions between the US and China and a sweeping pandemic, many assumptions upon which the original BRI policy framework was formulated no longer stand. As with other types of mega-scale infrastructure programme, BRI outcomes depend on future changes in the system that are hard to predict as well as opposing preferences of stakeholders that are difficult to balance. This situation may be conceptualized as ‘deep uncertainty’ in long-term decision making. Based on our initial analysis of BRI literature, we suggest incorporating deep uncertainty in BRI long-term decision making. At the Initiative level, to better cope with deep uncertainties, this implies that that decision makers need systematic, risk-based, and quantitative policy analysis tools to inform any adjustments in BRI development strategies and efforts to make BRI more resilient to potential future shocks. At the project level, it means that participating countries and a wide array of stakeholders may need such instruments to assess the feasibility and risks of specific projects. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods offer a set of useful and effective policy analysis tools to support tough and costly decisions that involve long-term planning, as exemplified by BRI megaproject investment. In this paper, we describe the deep uncertainties affecting BRI decision making, and from a preliminary analysis identify drawbacks of existing BRI policy analysis in light of its future challenges, use examples to illustrate how DMDU methods may potentially shape BRI decisions differently compared with current approaches, and tentatively discuss how scientists and policymakers can apply DMDU methods to inform and support BRI-related decision making that help enhance Initiative and project efficacy and efficiency.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129869375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"International experiences and practices in managing mega infrastructure risk","authors":"Chantelle Morrissette","doi":"10.1080/24724718.2022.2039055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24724718.2022.2039055","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper presents an evaluation of risk management theory and practice from the perspective of a risk professional working in large scale multinational mega projects. The paper discusses the typical steps of the risk management process prescribed by international good practice such as ISO 31000, before presenting some of the common challenges facing risk professionals in applying these processes to ongoing megaproject developments. The paper concludes with a series of suggested lessons to facilitate the successful application of risk management theory to practice with topics including: the importance of context, the problems of accessing reliable risk data for infrastructure projects, the limitations imposed by fragmented project governance and the potential fallacy of risk transfer.","PeriodicalId":143411,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development","volume":"433 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134276357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}