时间就是金钱,但有时代价更大:从经济史的角度看核项目的陷阱

M. Rubio-Varas
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引用次数: 0

摘要

不断变化的社会经济环境对核项目的决策和执行有着至关重要的影响。过去20年启动的核电项目相对于之前的项目缩短了建设时间。在过去70年建成的600多个核项目中,只有3%的项目耗时超过15年。在其经济背景下分析最长的项目,发现“何时何地”(即背景风险)解释了大多数延迟,从而质疑核电站项目是否本质上是大型项目“病态”的例子。“对最长核电项目的分析表明,未能在预算范围内按时交付核电站与历史时期和/或具体地点有关,而不是与核电站的任何固有特征有关。”核项目(以及一般的大型项目)的利益相关者应该注意社会经济变化和宏观经济影响,以避免陷阱。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Time is money, but sometimes it costs more: an economic history perspective into nuclear projects’ pitfalls
Abstract The changing socio-economic context has a crucial impact in nuclear decisions and execution of the projects. The nuclear projects initiated over the past 20 years reduced their construction times relative to those initiated before. Of the over 600 the nuclear projects built over the past 70 years only 3% took longer than 15 years to complete. Analysing the lengthiest projects within their economic context, reveals that ‘when and where’, (i.e., the contextual risks) explains most the delays, thus questioning whether nuclear power plant projects are inherently examples of the megaproject ‘pathologies.’ The analysis of the lengthiest nuclear power projects makes evident that the failure to deliver nuclear plants on time and within budget was related to the historical period and/or the specific location more than to any inherent characteristics of nuclear power plants. Stakeholders of nuclear projects (and megaprojects in general) should be attentive to socio-economic changes and macro-economic impacts to avoid pitfalls.
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