Mega infrastructure and strategic risk mitigation: planning, management and outcomes

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents the findings of a multi-case study evaluation of megaproject decision making as it relates to the analysis of strategic risk in the planning and appraisal of mega transport infrastructure projects. The paper reviews literature on risk planning and management from a set of papers commissioned by the OMEGA Centre at University College London (UCL) focusing on the treatment of risk and uncertainty in professions and disciplines where these phenomena have long been at the milieu of their planning and management responses. The findings of the literature review are combined to construct an evaluative framework with specific application to mega transport projects. This framework encompasses aspects of strategic planning, contextual awareness and stakeholder management. It is then applied via a qualitative analysis to aspects of the decision-making processes of 27 megaprojects in nine advanced economies of the world. The key findings of this evaluation suggest that past megaproject decision making is excessively focused on short-term outcomes, with little evidence of the rigorous or systematic analysis of risk and uncertainties that befalls such projects outside of project management and delivery concerns. Drawing from the lessons of past research and practice, the paper concludes by suggesting the essential ingredients of an approach that more explicitly incorporates risks and uncertainties that arise from outside the project portfolio. The author advocates a more ‘open-systems’ approach to megaproject planning and appraisal for infrastructure development that is much more sensitive to changing challenges and uncertainties of new contexts, and how these can affect project outcomes and impacts over the longer term. Whilst the paper draws upon research undertaken between 2005 and 2012, the findings are deemed of continued relevance today in such uncertain times, given the global geopolitical and economic uncertainties and multiple challenges of climate change, pandemics and inequalities which underline the precarious nature of risk management and decision making which prioritises short term project outputs over long term project outcomes and impacts.