Geophysical Research Letters最新文献

{"title":"Persistence of the Prereversal Enhancement of the Equatorial Vertical Plasma Drifts Observed by ICON","authors":"A. Kirchman,&nbsp;D. L. Hysell","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118390","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL118390","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An important feature of equatorial ionospheric electrodynamics is the evening prereversal enhancement (PRE) of the eastward electric fields and the associated vertical plasma drifts. The magnitude, timing, and duration of the PRE are closely connected to the development of postsunset F-region irregularities. If the PRE evolves slowly as it follows the day/night terminator, a persistence-based forecasting strategy may be valuable in predicting the PRE. In this study, we use ICON satellite data from November 2021 to October 2022 to monitor the PRE across sequential orbits. PRE drifts are parameterized to a Gaussian curve superimposed on a background linear trend. Rapid evolution of the PRE manifests as differences in parameters between orbits. Results indicate that the magnitude, timing, and duration of the PRE can change significantly between orbits, limiting the validity of persistence-based forecasting of the PRE. As the separation between observations increases, the strength of persistence decreases.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118390","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145305895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physics-Aware Probabilistic Modeling of Subsurface Soil Moisture Using Diffusion Processes Across Different Climate Settings","authors":"Abhilash Singh,&nbsp;Vidhi Singh,&nbsp;Kumar Gaurav","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118607","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL118607","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We developed a physics-aware denoising diffusion based probabilistic model for estimating subsurface soil moisture from surface observations. Unlike traditional physical-based methods that rely on site-specific soil parameters, our approach leverages a data-driven framework constrained by smoothness and Fickian diffusion principles to ensure physically consistent predictions. The model is trained and evaluated on hourly soil moisture data from 20 globally distributed sites, and further validated on high-resolution 10-min observations from four African stations. The results demonstrate robust performance across depths (10–40 cm), with the model maintaining high accuracy and low bias, even under varying temporal resolutions. We also analyzed the effect of input noise through a structured uncertainty experiment, highlighting the model's stability and reliability. By eliminating the need for explicit physical inputs and enabling uncertainty quantification, this framework offers a scalable solution for operational soil moisture monitoring, particularly in data-sparse or heterogeneous regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118607","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145306305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating Characteristic Droplet Size Distributions in Large Eddy Simulations of Stratocumulus Clouds","authors":"Nithin Allwayin,&nbsp;Daniel J. Miller,&nbsp;Kamal Kant Chandrakar,&nbsp;Michael L. Larsen,&nbsp;Raymond A. Shaw","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116021","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cloud processes relevant to radiative and precipitation properties depend on the shape of the cloud droplet size distribution. Recent holographic observations revealed that cloud droplet populations do not have the same size distribution shapes throughout but form regions of characteristic distributions with similar microphysical properties. We investigate the existence and properties of these characteristic distributions within Large-Eddy Simulations of stratocumulus clouds using Lagrangian and bin microphysics schemes. Distribution types are identified, revealing localized characteristic distributions that vary on the scale of the largest convective cell for simulations with bin microphysics. The results from the Lagrangian microphysics scheme hint at similar behavior. Compared to observations, the simulated clouds are much more uniform. Analysis of the LES results suggests a connection to the local entrainment rate, so the poorly resolved entrainment interface in LES may be a cause of the uniformity. The uniformity of the large-scale forcing could also be a factor.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145305891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetric Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole on Summer Climate Over Arabian Peninsula","authors":"Yiling Zheng,&nbsp;Ibrahim Hoteit","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118195","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL118195","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences the Arabian Peninsula (AP) summer climate, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we show the IOD's impact is asymmetric, with negative IOD events driving stronger, opposite climate anomalies to positive IOD events. Positive IOD modulates the local Hadley circulation and the South Asian High, establishing a lower-level anticyclone over the AP. This anomalous circulation drives a dipole surface air temperature pattern (warmer south, slightly cooler north) via altered horizontal advection. It also suppresses southwestern AP precipitation through weakened ascent and reduced moisture influx. The stronger negative IOD response is attributed to distinct factors: for temperature, nonlinear advection and enhanced cloud-radiation feedback; for precipitation, a “floor effect” from low mean-state precipitation limits further drying during positive IOD. Clarifying these mechanisms provides a new framework for understanding and predicting climate in this vulnerable region.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118195","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145295219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation Study of Chorus Wave Modulation and Associated Electron Precipitation","authors":"Huayue Chen,&nbsp;Xueyi Wang,&nbsp;Rui Chen,&nbsp;Lunjin Chen,&nbsp;Yoshiharu Omura,&nbsp;Yoshizumi Miyoshi,&nbsp;Xiaolei Li,&nbsp;Yi-Kai Hsieh","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118562","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL118562","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The modulation of chorus waves on several-second timescales in Earth's magnetosphere plays a crucial role in modulating electron precipitation intensity, leading to the formation of pulsating aurora. However, the physical mechanism underlying chorus modulation remains not fully understood. In this study, we perform self-consistent particle-in-cell simulations with typical magnetospheric plasma parameters to quantify chorus modulation driven by plasma density variations and compressional magnetic field fluctuations. It is demonstrated that chorus modulation is determined by nonlinear wave-particle interactions, in which the condition for nonlinear wave growth is highly sensitive to background plasma parameters. The resulting electron precipitation in the ∼10–200 keV energy range exhibits modulation on comparable timescales, consistent with observations of pulsating aurora. This study enhances our understanding of how variations in magnetospheric plasma parameters influence chorus wave excitation and the associated particle dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118562","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145295222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Limits to the Practical Predictability of Convective-Scale Forecast Systems With World-Class Data Assimilation","authors":"Jagdeep Singh Sodhi,&nbsp;Frédéric Fabry","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117816","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117816","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The uncertainty of the analysis and the error growth of the forecast from two of the best prediction systems based on radar data assimilation are studied to determine how close we are from accurately forecasting thunderstorms and what additional information would be required to achieve this goal. Even if these two state-of-the-art systems frequently assimilate all available measurements for one, or assimilate radar data every 30 s for the other, considerable uncertainty remains in unobserved atmospheric properties such as temperature or humidity. Worse, limited improvement can be expected as limited direct measurements exist, and essentially all the covariance-based information is being exploited. Unless a massive investment in new measurement technologies occurs, or radically new ideas are proposed, forecast accuracy will remain insufficient to properly simulate the complete lifetime of a thunderstorm, limiting the accuracy and value of threat forecasting.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117816","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145295877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Laboratory Realization of Magnetopause-Like Reconnection in Space Plasma Environment Research Facility (SPERF)","authors":"Kai Huang,&nbsp;Wenbin Ling,&nbsp;Huibo Tang,&nbsp;Jian Guan,&nbsp;Jihua Yang,&nbsp;Jiayin Xie,&nbsp;Gaoyuan Peng,&nbsp;Hanru Ma,&nbsp;Nan Wang,&nbsp;Tianyi Zhang,&nbsp;Zheng Cao,&nbsp;Shangkun Ren,&nbsp;Yangguang Ke,&nbsp;Ke Han,&nbsp;Yunning Dong,&nbsp;Yaowen Lu,&nbsp;Peng E,&nbsp;Quanming Lu","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117351","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117351","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Magnetic reconnection explosively converts magnetic energy into plasma heating and particle acceleration. At Earth's magnetopause, reconnection governs solar wind-magnetosphere coupling and drives global convection. Understanding these processes requires resolving reconnection's spatiotemporal evolution, which is difficult for in situ observations but achievable in laboratory experiments. However, building a geometry like the real magnetopause in laboratory remains a key challenge. Here, we present the first laboratory experiment at the Space Plasma Environment Research Facility trying to replicates Earth's magnetopause configuration. Using a dipole magnet (mimicking magnetosphere) and coaxial flux cores (simulating solar wind), we establish a magnetopause-like current sheet via dynamic plasma compression. Measured Hall magnetic fields confirm Hall reconnection, transitioning from an asymmetric multiple <i>x</i>-lines state to a symmetric single <i>x</i>-line state. This dynamic evolution will impact global energy conversion and transport at magnetopause.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117351","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145305892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Water Content of a Landfill With ERT Data by Bayesian Evidential Learning","authors":"L. Wang,&nbsp;T. J. Heimovaara","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117384","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117384","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate estimation of water storage in municipal solid waste landfills is critical for assessing leachate-generation risk yet remains challenging due to pronounced heterogeneity. Here we apply Bayesian Evidential Learning (BEL) to directly relate Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) data to total water storage (TWS), bypassing explicit inversion. A semi-parametric forward model generates 100,000 synthetic TWS–ERT pairs spanning stochastic saturation fields and petrophysical uncertainty. A Bayesian neural network captures data-dependent predictive uncertainty, while stratified resampling and adaptive weighting mitigate class imbalance across the TWS range. The framework yields well-calibrated posterior estimates and consistent agreement with independent water-balance benchmarks from four field transects. The BEL–ERT workflow provides a rapid, open-source alternative for landfill monitoring and highlights the potential of uncertainty-aware learning from synthetic ensembles to quantify water storage in heterogeneous near-surface systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145306308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tracing Diurnal Variations of Atmospheric CO2, O2, and \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 δ\u0000 13\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 ${boldsymbol{delta }}^{mathbf{13}}$\u0000 CO2 Over a Tropical and a Temperate Forest","authors":"Kim A. P. Faassen,&nbsp;Raquel González-Armas,&nbsp;Gerbrand Koren,&nbsp;Getachew Agmuas Adnew,&nbsp;Hella van Asperen,&nbsp;Hugo de Boer,&nbsp;Santiago Botía,&nbsp;Vincent S. de Feiter,&nbsp;Oscar Hartogensis,&nbsp;Bert G. Heusinkveld,&nbsp;Lucas M. Hulsman,&nbsp;Ronald W. A. Hutjes,&nbsp;Sam P. Jones,&nbsp;Bert A. M. Kers,&nbsp;Shujiro Komiya,&nbsp;Luiz A. T. Machado,&nbsp;Giordane Martins,&nbsp;John B. Miller,&nbsp;Wouter Mol,&nbsp;Michiel van der Molen,&nbsp;Robbert Moonen,&nbsp;Cléo Q. Dias-Junior,&nbsp;Thomas Röckmann,&nbsp;Henk Snellen,&nbsp;Ingrid T. Luijkx,&nbsp;Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118016","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL118016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze the diurnal variability of atmospheric <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>O</mi>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${mathrm{O}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, and <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>δ</mi>\u0000 <mn>13</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${delta }^{13}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>CO₂ above the canopies of two contrasting ecosystems: the Amazon tropical forest and the Loobos temperate forest. Using a coupled forest-atmosphere model constrained by tower-based and aircraft observations, we quantify the role of atmospheric processes—including entrainment, subsidence, and cloud ventilation—in shaping the diurnal amplitude, or diurnal range (DR), of carbon-cycle tracers. Our results show that atmospheric processes can contribute more than twice as much as surface processes to DR. Misrepresenting these influences leads to substantial errors in interpreting observations and modeling tracer variability. We propose using DR as a metric to evaluate atmospheric tracer transport models and to compare site-level measurements. We present a roadmap to identify which atmospheric or surface processes are poorly represented when modeled and observed DR diverge.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145289095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismological Evidence for Crustal Thinning and Melting Beneath the Leiqiong Volcanic Area, South China: Implications for Plume-Lithosphere Interaction at a Passive Continental Margin","authors":"Zhou Zhang,&nbsp;Yangfan Deng,&nbsp;Yi-Gang Xu,&nbsp;Xin Li,&nbsp;Jinchang Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115307","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL115307","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Both mantle plumes and passive margin extension have been recognized as crucial mechanisms governing intracontinental volcanism and lithospheric evolution. However, the synergistic interactions between these two processes in modulating lithospheric modification remain poorly constrained. The Leiqiong volcanic area (LQV), on the northern continental margin of the South China Sea, has witnessed intense volcanic activity since the late Cenozoic. Though geophysical imaging show mantle plume beneath LQV, limited resolution hinders our understanding of lithospheric modification and magmatic processes. In this study, analysis of teleseismic waveforms from newly deployed broadband stations reveals the lithospheric thinning to the south of LQV, crustal thinning, high stretching factors, high Vp/Vs ratios and crustal melting within LQV. In comparison with global hotspots modulating lithospheric architecture and melting, our results offer seismological evidence that passive margin dynamics rival mantle plumes in lithospheric modification, highlighting a plume-lithosphere interaction that jointly drives volcanism and continental margin destabilization through multi-mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115307","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145289121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}