{"title":"On the (Ir)Relevance of Firm Size for Bail-Outs Under Voter-Neutrality: The Case of Foreign Stakeholders","authors":"L. Schilling","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3731110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3731110","url":null,"abstract":"A failing firm employs domestic and foreign stakeholders. The latter have no voting rights. A politician decides on the vote-share maximizing bailout. In a probabilistic voting model, I analyze whether foreign stakeholders impact bailouts. Stakeholder voters shade their vote to reward the politician, while non-stakeholder voters punish the politician for imposing bailout-financing taxes. If foreign stakeholders neither pay taxes nor receive bailouts (seasonal workers), only voters at the firm level matter. Firms with equally large stakeholder groups receive distinct bailouts in equilibrium, depending on their voter-concentration among stakeholders. If foreigners pay taxes and receive bailouts (greencard holders), they impact the electorate and thus bailouts through monetary transfers despite their lack of voting rights. Then adding foreigners can both increase or decrease bailouts. The measure of all firm stakeholders remains insufficient to determine bailouts. In either case, vote-share maximizing bailouts equal socially optimal bailouts only if all stakeholders are domestic.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116641637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pricing Currency Risks","authors":"Mikhail Chernov, Magnus Dahlquist, Lars Lochstoer","doi":"10.3386/w28260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28260","url":null,"abstract":"The currency market features a relatively small cross-section and conditional expected returns can be characterized by only a few signals – interest differentials, trend, and mean-reversion. We exploit these properties to construct a conditional projection of the stochastic discount factor onto excess returns of individual currencies. Our approach is implementable in real time and prices all currencies and prominent strategies conditionally as well as unconditionally. We document that the fraction of unpriced risk in these assets is at least 85%. Extant explanations of carry strategies based on intermediary capital or global volatility are related to these unpriced components, while consumption growth is related to the priced component of returns. \u0000 \u0000Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"23 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125290823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimally Controlling an Epidemic","authors":"Martín Gonzalez-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3751860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3751860","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a flexible model of infectious dynamics with a single endogenous state variable and economic choices. We characterize equilibrium, optimal outcomes, static and dynamic externalities, and prove the following: (i) A lockdown generically is followed by policies to stimulate activity. (ii) Re-infection risk lowers the activity level chosen by the government early on and, for small static externalities, implies too cautious equilibrium steady-state activity. (iii) When a cure arrives deterministically, optimal policy is dis-continuous, featuring a light/strict lockdown when the arrival date exceeds/falls short of a specific value. Calibrated to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the baseline model and a battery of robustness checks and extensions imply (iv) lockdowns for 3-4 months, with activity reductions by 25-40 percent, and (v) substantial welfare gains from optimal policy unless the government lacks instruments to stimulate activity after a lockdown.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116551853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Anxiety Increases the Willingness to Be Exposed to COVID-19 Risk Among Young Adults in France","authors":"Fabrice Etilé, P. Geoffard","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-105842/v2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-105842/v2","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The COVID-19 outbreak has generated significant uncertainty about the future, especially for young adults. Health and economic threats, as well as more diffuse concerns about the consequences of COVID-19, can trigger feelings of anxiety, leading individuals to adopt uncertainty-reducing behaviours. We tested whether anxiety was associated with an increase in willingness to be exposed to the risk of COVID-19 infection (WiRE) using an online survey administered to 3,110 French individuals aged between 18 and 35 years old during the lockdown period (April 2020). Overall, 56.5% of the sample declared a positive WiRE. Unemployment was associated with a higher WiRE (+8.2 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.9-15.4 pp). One standard deviation increases in income (+1160€) and psychological state anxiety raised the WiRE by +2.7 pp (95% CI: +1.1-4.4 pp) and +3.9 pp (95% CI: +1.6-6.2 pp),respectively. A one standard deviation increase in perceived hospitalisation risk was associated with a -4.1 pp (95% CI: -6.2-2.1 pp) decrease in the WiRE. Overall, our results suggest that both the prospect of economic losses and psychological anxiety can undermine young adults’ adherence to physical distancing recommendations. Public policies targeting young adults must consider both their economic situation and their mental health, and they must use uncertaintyreducing communication strategies.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124921010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asymmetric Information, Strategic Transfers, and the Design of Long-Term Care Policies","authors":"C. Canta, H. Cremer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3728419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3728419","url":null,"abstract":"We study the design of social long-term care (LTC) insurance when informal care is exchange-based. Parents do not observe their children's cost of providing care, which is continuously distributed over some interval. They choose a rule specifying transfers that are conditional on the level of informal care. Social LTC insurance is designed to maximize a weighted sum of parents' and children's utility. The optimal uniform public LTC insurance can fully cover the risk of dependence but parents continue to bear the risk of having children with a high cost of providing care. A nonlinear policy conditioning LTC benefits on transfers provides full insurance even for this risk. Informal care increases with the children's welfare weight. Our theoretical analysis is completed by numerical solutions based on a calibrated example. In the uniform case, public care should represent up to 40% of total care but its share decreases to about 30% as the weight of children increases. In the nonlinear case, public care increases with the children's cost of providing care at a faster rate when children's weight in social welfare is higher. It represents 100% of total care for the families with high-cost children.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117231473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mediating Conflict in the Lab","authors":"A. Casella, Evan Friedman, Manuel Perez Archila","doi":"10.3386/w28137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28137","url":null,"abstract":"Mechanism design teaches us that a mediator can strictly improve the chances of peace between two opponents even when the mediator has no independent resources, is less informed than the two parties, and has no enforcement power. We test the theory in a lab experiment where two subjects negotiate how to share a resource; in case of conflict, the subjects' privately known strength determines their payoffs. The subjects send cheap talk messages about their strength to one another (in the treatment with direct communication) or to the mediator (in the mediation treatment), before making their demands or receiving the mediator's recommendations. We find that, in line with the theory, messages are significantly more sincere when sent to the mediator. However, contrary to the theory, peaceful resolution is not more frequent, even when the mediator is a computer implementing the optimal mediation program. While the theoretical result refers to the best (i.e. most peaceful) equilibrium under mediation, multiple equilibria exist, and the best equilibrium is particularly vulnerable to small deviations from full truthfulness. Subjects are not erratic and their deviations induce only small losses in payoffs, and yet they translate into significant increases in conflict.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129502038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Storing Power: Market Structure Matters","authors":"David Andrés-Cerezo, Natalia Fabra","doi":"10.1111/1756-2171.12429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12429","url":null,"abstract":"We assess how firms' incentives to operate and invest in energy storage depend on the market structure. For this purpose, we characterize equilibrium market outcomes allowing for market power in storage and/or production, as well as for vertical integration between storage and production. Market power reduces overall efficiency through two channels: it induces an inefficient use of the storage facilities, and it distorts investment incentives. The worst outcome for consumers and total welfare occurs under vertical integration. We illustrate our theoretical results by simulating the Spanish wholesale electricity market for different levels of storage capacity. The results are key to understanding how to regulate energy storage, an issue which is critical for the deployment of renewables.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"260 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115953564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Angrisani, Jeremy Burke, A. Lusardi, Gary Mottola
{"title":"The Stability and Predictive Power of Financial Literacy: Evidence from Longitudinal Data","authors":"M. Angrisani, Jeremy Burke, A. Lusardi, Gary Mottola","doi":"10.3386/w28125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28125","url":null,"abstract":"We administered the FINRA Foundation’s National Financial Capability Study questionnaire to members of the RAND American Life Panel (ALP) in 2012 and 2018. Using this unique, longitudinal data set, we investigate the evolution of financial literacy over time and shed light on the causal effect of financial knowledge on financial outcomes. Over a six-year observation period, financial literacy appears to be rather stable, with a slight tendency to decline at older ages. Moreover and importantly, financial literacy has significant predictive power for future financial outcomes, even after controlling for baseline outcomes and a wide set of demographics and individual characteristics that influence financial decision making. This estimated relationship is significantly stronger for older individuals, for women, and for those with lower income than for their counterparts in the study. Altogether, our findings suggest that differences in the stock of financial knowledge may lead to increasing inequality over the life course.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126130091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Search, Showrooming, and Retailer Variety","authors":"Heski Bar-Isaac, Sandro Shelegia","doi":"10.1287/mksc.2022.1376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2022.1376","url":null,"abstract":"Showrooming brings price-inelastic customers to stores with shallow assortments, which can lead to higher prices at stores with deep assortments (from which they showroom).","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121682703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Spanish Labour Market at the Crossroads: Covidâ?19 Meets the Megatrends","authors":"J. Dolado, F. Felgueroso, J. Jimeno","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3730467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3730467","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews the experience so far of the Spanish labour market during the Covid-19 crisis in the light of current institutions, past performance during recessions, and the policy measures adopted during the pandemic. Emphasis is placed on the role of worldwide trends in labour markets (automation and AI) in shaping a potential recovery from this (hopefully) transitory shock through a big reallocation process of employment and economic activity.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130717498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}