CEPR Discussion Paper Series最新文献

Friday Morning Fever. Evidence from a Randomized Experiment on Sick Leave Monitoring in the Public Sector 周五早晨狂热。公共部门病假监测的随机实验证据

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3846690

T. Boeri, Edoardo Di Porto, Paolo Naticchioni, Vincenzo Scrutinio

{"title":"Friday Morning Fever. Evidence from a Randomized Experiment on Sick Leave Monitoring in the Public Sector","authors":"T. Boeri, Edoardo Di Porto, Paolo Naticchioni, Vincenzo Scrutinio","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3846690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3846690","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides the first analysis of a population-wide controlled field experiment for home visits checking on sick leave in the public sector. The experiment was carried out in Italy, a country with large absenteeism in the public sector, and it concerned the universe of public employees. We exploit unique administrative data from the Italian social security administration (INPS) on sick leave and work histories. We find that receiving a home visit reduces the number of days on sick leave in the following 16 months by about 12 % (5.5 days). The effect is stronger for workers who are found irregularly on sick leave (-10.2 days). We interpret our findings as a deterrence effect of home visits: workers being found irregularly on sick leave experience a decline of about 2 % of their wage in the following 12 months. Uncertainty aversion (there is no automatism in these sanctions) can play a role in these results. Our estimates suggest that home visits are cost-effective: every Euro spent for the visits involves up to 10 Euros reductions in sick benefits outlays. We estimate the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) spent on home visits at about 1.13, which is significantly lower than estimates of MVPF of income taxes in the US.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133851233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trade, Jobs, and Worker Welfare 贸易、就业和工人福利

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9628

Erhan Artuç, Paulo Bastos, Eunhee Lee

引用次数: 2

Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America During the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact 大流行下一阶段拉丁美洲面临的财政政策挑战:制定财政公约的必要性

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-03-18 DOI: 10.5089/9781513574332.001.A001

Mauricio Cárdenas, L. Ricci, J. Roldos, Alejandro M. Werner

{"title":"Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America During the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact","authors":"Mauricio Cárdenas, L. Ricci, J. Roldos, Alejandro M. Werner","doi":"10.5089/9781513574332.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513574332.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a more gradual consolidation path than currently envisaged by several countries in the region. Avoiding an early withdrawal of support in 2021 and 2022 is important given that countries are still facing high rates of contagion and deaths, vaccination will take place very slowly, the economic recovery is partial, uncertain and not strong enough to help those most affected by the twin public health and economic crisis. At the center of this discussion is our conviction that fiscal space is not set in stone and it is endogenous to the medium-term targets and commitments undertaken by governments and congresses throughout the region. Also, revisions to fiscal responsibility frameworks should help anchor fiscal sustainability, as well as improve their effectiveness and flexibility. In this context, low-for-long interest rates and easy market access is generating a situation that, in spite of higher debt levels, interest cost on public debt will remain contained in the foreseeable future. Especially if, as argued in this paper, a more gradual fiscal consolidation path is accompanied with stronger commitments and institutional frameworks that ensure debt is put on a credible downward trajectory once the pandemic is under control. Catalyzing these changes, as well as initiating the debate to design other fiscal reforms to strengthen social protection and increase the progressivity of public finances, would require a broad social consensus and political cohesion around several crucial dimensions of public finances: a fiscal pact. On the other hand, if this agenda is neglected the continuation of low growth, social discontent, and political polarization could drive Latin America towards a very dangerous path of institutional and economic decay.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130058826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

Evaluating Deliberative Competence: A Simple Method with an Application to Financial Choice 评估商议能力:一种应用于财务选择的简单方法

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.5167/UZH-205562

Sandro Ambuehl, B. Bernheim, A. Lusardi

引用次数: 9

The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance: 民粹主义对官僚主义和政府绩效的影响

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3805897

Luca Bellodi, M. Morelli, M. Vannoni

引用次数: 6

Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs 流行病学模型的贝叶斯估计:方法、因果关系和政策权衡

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.21799/FRBP.WP.2021.18

Jonas E Arias, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan Rubio Ramírez, Minchul Shin

引用次数: 8

Social Responsibility and Bank Resiliency 社会责任和银行弹性

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3841453

Thomas Gehrig, Maria Chiara Iannino, S. Unger

引用次数: 4

Technology-Neutral vs. Technology-Specific Procurement 技术中立与技术特定采购

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueac075

Natalia Fabra, J. Montero

引用次数: 10

Exploiting Rivals' Strengths 利用竞争对手的优势

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3781119

G. Calzolari, V. Denicoló

引用次数: 3

The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions 先验在有符号约束VAR模型估计中的作用

CEPR Discussion Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2030

A. Inoue, L. Kilian

{"title":"The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions","authors":"A. Inoue, L. Kilian","doi":"10.24149/wp2030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2030","url":null,"abstract":"Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically imposed in estimating sign-identified VAR models may be unintentionally informative about the implied prior for the structural impulse responses. This question is indeed important, but we show that the tools that have been used in the literature to illustrate this potential problem are invalid. Specifically, we show that it does not make sense from a Bayesian point of view to characterize the impulse response prior based on the distribution of the impulse responses conditional on the maximum likelihood estimator of the reduced-form parameters, since the prior does not, in general, depend on the data. We illustrate that this approach tends to produce highly misleading estimates of the impulse response priors. We formally derive the correct impulse response prior distribution and show that there is no evidence that typical sign-identified VAR models estimated using conventional priors tend to imply unintentionally informative priors for the impulse response vector or that the corresponding posterior is dominated by the prior. Our evidence suggests that concerns about the Haar prior for the rotation matrix have been greatly overstated and that alternative estimation methods are not required in typical applications. Finally, we demonstrate that the alternative Bayesian approach to estimating sign-identified VAR models proposed by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) suffers from exactly the same conceptual shortcoming as the conventional approach. We illustrate that this alternative approach may imply highly economically implausible impulse response priors.","PeriodicalId":121231,"journal":{"name":"CEPR Discussion Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122096918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 24