Estuaries and Coasts最新文献

{"title":"Carbon dioxide and methane emissions from eutrophic, vegetated coastal lagoons potentially offset carbon accumulation in eelgrass sediments.","authors":"C Wigand, S Ayvazian, N Bartolucci, A Beardwood, S Miller, D Cobb, P Colarusso, N Merrill, K Miller","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01674-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01674-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Vegetated coastal lagoons provide carbon dioxide (CO₂) uptake and are often inventoried as blue carbon (C) sinks. We measured greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, CO₂, methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O), at the water-air interface in dominant habitats including oyster aquaculture, eelgrass, and bare sediments of two temperate, eutrophic coastal lagoonal systems in Rhode Island (RI), and estimated sediment C accumulation in eelgrass habitats. We examined whether system GHG emissions at the water-air interface offset estimated eelgrass sediment C accumulation. Although highly variable, we often measured net CO₂ and CH₄ emissions from eelgrass and other habitats, which offset some or all of the estimated C accumulation in eelgrass sediments. At Potter Pond the monthly (May - October 2023) mean CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) over a 100y horizon at the bare habitat (-0.0071 ± 0.63 ug m^-2 s^-1) was a net sink, while the mean CO₂e-100y at eelgrass (4.74 ± 0.91 ug m^-2 s^-1) and oyster (2.30 ± 0.71 ug m^-2 s^-1) habitats were net sources. At Pt. Judith Pond the mean CO₂e-100y across months and among habitats ranged from 2.49 ug m^-2 s^-1 at the oyster habitat to 5.08 ug m^-2 s^-1 at the eelgrass habitat. High CO₂ and CH₄ emissions might be attributed to the abundance of labile macroalgae, which decomposes rapidly, and to mineralization of legacy C in sediments associated with declining eelgrass. GHG emissions in eutrophic, vegetated lagoons might offset sediment C accumulation and cause an overestimation of blue C sinks.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13094814/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147766280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Open-Coast Eelgrass (<i>Zostera marina)</i> Transplant Catalyzes Rapid Mirroring of Structure and Function of Extant Eelgrasses.","authors":"Rilee D Sanders, Adam K Obaza, David W Ginsburg, Olivia C Carmack, Benjamin C Grime, Heather Burdick, Tom K Ford, James J Leichter","doi":"10.1007/s12237-025-01609-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-025-01609-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Seagrasses are marine angiosperms that function as ecosystem engineers, forming complex structure that enhance nearshore environments. Globally, seagrass habitats are threatened by intensifying impacts from climate change, which exacerbate non-climatic stressors such as coastal development, invasive species, and overfishing. Advances in the methodological efficacy of active seagrass restoration efforts have sought to mitigate substantial anthropogenic-induced losses. Restoration efforts along the U.S. West Coast have primarily focused on <i>Zostera marina</i> (common eelgrass) in shallow, sheltered estuarine environments, where most coastal development occurs. However, within the Southern California Bight, <i>Zostera</i> spp. also occurs along the exposed coastlines of the California Channel Islands archipelago. Despite their unique location and the ecosystem services they provide, a paucity of information persists on open-coast seagrass systems and restoration efforts. In this study, we conducted a novel transplant of <i>Z. marina</i> on Catalina Island and tracked temporal and spatial performance metrics (i.e., areal coverage, morphometrics, and fish assemblages) at the restoration site and seven extant <i>Z. marina</i> reference beds on the island from 2021 to 2024. The transplant activities successfully established over 0.18 hectares of <i>Z. marina</i> habitat. The transplant site paralleled or exceeded extant reference beds morphometrically (shoot density and blade length) and functionally (fish composition and fish diversity), while concomitantly providing habitat for the occupancy of, and utilization by, federally listed endangered and managed species. Our results provide a model for broadening the scope of, and augmenting strategies for, seagrass habitat recovery beyond conventional restoration spaces by underscoring the role of open-coast seagrasses in enhancing nearshore ecosystem function and resilience.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12237-025-01609-x.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 1","pages":"2"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12484352/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145211882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Deep Is Your Mud? Pinpointing Hidden Transitions in Restored Saltmarsh Sediments to Support Robust Assessment of Carbon Stocks.","authors":"Robert B Sparkes, Saule Akhmetkaliyeva, Stuart A Rae, Callum Johnstone, Josie Tustain, Amber Ferguson, Ewan Hoburn, Lucy McMahon, Rachel M Dunk, Hannah L Mossman","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01812-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01812-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Tidal inundation of saltmarshes can mitigate anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions by rapidly accumulating carbon-rich sediment, with the potential to sequester this \"blue carbon\" for thousands of years. The desire to remove atmospheric carbon, alongside increased flood risk from sea-level rise, is driving scientific and financial interest in restoring low-lying land into saltmarshes. Saltmarsh restoration buries agricultural fields with marine or estuarine sediment, yet the transition from agricultural soil to saltmarsh sediment is often difficult to observe in sediment cores. Quantifying sediment accumulation is critical for calculating the carbon benefits of saltmarsh restoration, and a pre-requisite for generating financial returns. At Bleadon Levels, a restored saltmarsh in Somerset, UK, we tested several methods to determine the transition between agricultural soils and saltmarsh sediments. Calcium (Ca) and inorganic carbon (IC) were significantly more concentrated in the upper parts of cores, interpreted as marine carbonates within saltmarsh sediment deposits. The biomarker-based R_soil index agreed with Ca and IC data. Organic carbon (OC) measurements did not show matching changes, demonstrating that OC variations with depth do not reliably identify transitions from saltmarsh to agricultural layers. Thus, saltmarsh sediment depth can be determined using relatively simple, cost-effective Ca and IC concentration measurements, and restoration schemes should consider these techniques in their monitoring, reporting and verification procedures.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-026-01812-4.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 6","pages":"200"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13612652/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149059394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of Coastal Wetland Vegetation Assessment Methods in Southern California.","authors":"Janet B Walker, Rachel S Smith, Kathryn M Beheshti, Karina K Johnston, Christine R Whitcraft, Jeffrey A Crooks, Melodie Grubbs, Henry M Page, Steve Schroeter, Eric D Stein, Kellie A Uyeda","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01779-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01779-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Vegetation surveys provide key information for evaluating functions within and across estuaries. However, survey methods and analyses are often highly variable, site-specific, and driven by monitoring program goals and objectives, making regional comparisons that include multiple programs difficult. This study compared multiple transect- and quadrat-based vegetation monitoring methods within eight southern California estuaries to assess variability and comparability among methods within programs and to provide recommendations for the development of regional and statewide coastal wetland monitoring programs. Using data from established monitoring programs with distinct, non-overlapping goals, vegetation percent cover, species richness, and community composition across five commonly used methods (line intercept, point contact, swath intercept, standard (visually assessed) quadrat, and laser quadrat) were compared. Of the seven vegetation cover comparisons made within programs (<i>n</i> = 2) and methods (<i>n</i> = 5), estimates did not vary by more than 7% on average, with the exception (12%) of the one newly restored and sparsely vegetated wetland included in the analysis. Similarly, plant community composition was not significantly different between methods. Whether the methods were comparable depended on three main factors: (1) method category (transect vs. quadrat), (2) the total amount of cover (high vs. low), and (3) the type of vegetation metrics (percent cover, species richness, and community composition). We also examined how survey decisions (e.g., bounding, plant state, nomenclature, binning) affected vegetation cover estimates within each monitoring program. Surprisingly, standardization across survey decisions was not key to the ability to compare within site estimates. However, it was critical for surveyors to first collect bounded vegetated and non-vegetated cover estimates (i.e., whether overall cover estimates can exceed 100%). When survey designs were similar (e.g., all transect-based and bounded), the data required less manipulation when combining and therefore had higher quality assurance than when survey designs varied (e.g. transect versus quadrat or bounded versus unbounded or combination). Review of method comparisons and survey decisions is reflected in a conceptual framework and led to six conclusions and recommendations for standardized, site-intensive vegetation monitoring that can inform broader recommendations for regional coastal wetland monitoring programs.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12237-026-01779-2.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 5","pages":"162"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13381379/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148600664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential for Manganese Oxide Driven Anaerobic Methane Oxidation in Sediments of a Seasonally Euxinic Coastal Basin.","authors":"Robin Klomp, Anna J Wallenius, Niels A G M van Helmond, Wytze K Lenstra, Olga M Żygadłowska, Mike S M Jetten, Caroline P Slomp","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01685-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01685-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Methane (CH₄) is a strong greenhouse gas that, in marine sediments, is produced via methanogenesis and removed via oxidation with electron acceptors such as oxygen, sulfate and metal oxides<i>.</i> This study assesses the potential for manganese driven anaerobic oxidation of methane (Mn-AOM) in rapidly accumulating sediments in a seasonally euxinic coastal marine basin (Scharendijke basin, Lake Grevelingen, the Netherlands). Geochemical sediment and porewater profiles demonstrate that, at the study site, Mn oxides are buried in the methanic zone. Sediment incubations amended with ¹³C-CH₄ and various Mn forms indicate that the Mn oxide minerals birnessite, pyrolusite and manganite can enhance CH₄ oxidation, whereas ligand bound dissolved Mn(III) does not. This is attributed to either direct Mn-AOM, where Mn oxides act as the electron acceptor, and/or indirect Mn-driven AOM via cryptic sulfur cycling. Results of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing of the incubated sediment point towards a likely role for anaerobic methanotrophic archaea of the clades ANME-2ab and ANME-3 in direct and indirect Mn-driven AOM, respectively. An increase in relative abundance of the methanogen <i>Methanosarcina</i> in several of the incubations suggests that these versatile methanogens benefit from Mn oxide reduction. This study demonstrates potential for Mn-driven AOM in sediments from a eutrophic, seasonally euxinic coastal basin, and expands the range of electron acceptors involved in CH₄ removal in such systems.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12237-026-01685-7.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 3","pages":"72"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12992435/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147480087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Resilience of a Coastal Wetland to Relative Sea-level Rise for a Native American Tribe in Louisiana - Comparing Biophysical Prediction and Traditional Ecological Knowledge.","authors":"Kelly M San Antonio, Wei Wu, Matthew B Bethel","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01679-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01679-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Coastal wetland predictions typically depend on biophysical models that incorporate geomorphological, hydrological, and vegetation dynamics. However, such models are rooted in scientific knowledge (SK), and can often exclude specific local environmental, cultural, and generational contexts. These aspects are better captured in traditional ecological knowledge (TEK), passed down through generations via oral histories. As TEK is context-specific and place-based, its comparison with SK can provide a more comprehensive understanding, especially to better predict coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise (RSLR). In this study, we applied a biophysical mechanistic model to predict the impact of RSLR on Louisiana's Terrebonne Bay wetlands, which are important for the subsistence and commercial livelihoods of the Pointe-au-Chien Indian Tribe (PACIT), but have experienced some of the highest rates of RSLR in the United States. The mechanistic model generated wetland predictions through 2100, using field measurements (vegetation productivity, soil pore-water salinity, total suspended solids, accretion rates), historic and current National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) wetland maps, and elevation data. We derived RSLR thresholds (beyond which wetland is lost dramatically) in 2050 and 2100 and applied the 2050 threshold to predict wetland change, which we then used to analyze the spatial vulnerability of coastal wetlands. Results indicate most wetland loss (~ 93%) will occur by 2075 under a high acceleration scenario, and were compared with previously co-produced TEK assessments to guide restoration prioritization, creating a GIS tool with broader insight than the SK or TEK data alone and providing a potential model for Indigenous-led climate adaptation planning.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12237-026-01679-5.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 3","pages":"57"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12923504/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147270124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Woven Through Time: Five Strategies for Enduring Indigenous-Academic Co-Production.","authors":"Alyssa A Outhwaite, Francisca N Santana, Georgie V Ferguson, Cherie Matherne, Donald Dardar, Matthew B Bethel","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01736-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01736-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Co-production is increasingly recognized as a transformative approach to addressing environmental and societal challenges; however, key questions remain about how academic and Indigenous partnerships adapt and endure. Existing co-production frameworks offer insights on how to establish new relationships and suggest that long-term partnership may be key to climate adaptation efforts, yet few studies report on the application of co-production to long-term resilience. This perspective explores this gap, reporting on more than a decade of collaborative work between the Pointe-au-Chien Indian Tribe (PACIT) and Louisiana Sea Grant; a partnership rooted in shared goals of community resilience and climate adaptation in coastal Louisiana. Drawing on a basket weaving metaphor, we examine long-term co-production as a process of interlacing diverse knowledge systems, relationships, and strategies into a durable, adaptive structure. While challenges such as institutional power imbalances, environmental disasters and ongoing hazards, and shifting priorities persist, we present these not as obstacles but as opportunities to strengthen the relationship. From this case study, we identify five main strategies that have sustained the PACIT-Sea Grant partnership: (1) Maintaining Flexibility, (2) Evolving Partnerships, (3) Embracing Pluralism, (4) Investing Time, and (5) Building Capacity. We also offer transferable lessons for others engaged in environmental co-production with Indigenous communities. This work contributes to specific strategies and examples on how to build long-term, equitable collaborations in the face of ongoing climate and institutional change.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 4","pages":"130"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13233996/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148197795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Preliminary Investigation of Research Collaboration Through Scientific Paper Co-authorship in the Gulf of Mexico.","authors":"Juliet Vallejo, Evelyn Roozee, Dongkyu Kim, Andrew M Song, Christopher A Gabler, Jasper de Vries, Antonia Sohns, Gordon M Hickey, Owen Temby","doi":"10.1007/s12237-025-01616-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-025-01616-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>It is well known that publications with collaborators from external institutions increase citations. This effect scales with spatial distance. There are also many barriers to long-distance collaborations, including linguistic differences, funding constraints, and the incremental costs of remote collaboration. This paper uses the Gulf of Mexico as a case study to examine long-distance research collaboration because it consists of three countries with diverse development levels and two prominent diplomatic languages, within a singular regional ecosystem of tremendous natural and economic value. This paper uses bibliometric network analysis to examine scientific research article co-authorship in the Gulf of Mexico from 2000 to 2018. The results reveal that, although inter-organizational co-authorship has increased, significant fragmentation exists between the U.S.A, Mexico, and Cuba. Large differences in technological and organizational proximity as well as research capacity between US and Mexican states in the Gulf of Mexico may make collaboration more difficult compared to other transboundary settings, such as the US-Canadian border. Centrally located organizations in the network, such as NOAA, have played a prominent role in cross-institutional research, suggesting a capacity to bridge political entities in the Gulf of Mexico.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 1","pages":"5"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12496297/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145238087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Floodplain Forests Are Sensitive to Salt-Intrusion During Summer Droughts When Dominated by <i>Salix</i>.","authors":"Eleonora Saccon, Suzanne J M H Hulscher, Tjeerd J Bouma, Johan van de Koppel","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01726-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01726-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change and human activities are increasing salt intrusion into estuaries worldwide. This is threatening the last remaining temperate freshwater floodplain forests, which are vulnerable to sea level rise and more extreme river discharges. In temperate regions, salt intrusion events typically occur during summer droughts and/or winter storm surges. While such shift in timing of salt intrusion events could influence vegetation differently based on their phenological cycle, the seasonal impact on freshwater vegetation remains poorly understood. In this study, we exposed two dominant freshwater floodplain-forest tree species, <i>Salix alba</i> and <i>Alnus glutinosa</i>, to saltwater stress for one week during each temperate season: spring, summer, autumn, and winter. Our results show that <i>Salix alba</i> is highly sensitive to salt stress in spring and summer, growing up to 96% less in hight and up to 95% less in diameter, and reduced recovery the next spring (Leaf Health Index of -1 compared to 1 in the control treatment). On the other hand, exposure in autumn and winter had little effect. In contrast, <i>Alnus glutinosa</i> showed consistent resistance and recovery across all seasons. These findings highlight that assessments of flood-plain forest vulnerability must consider not only species-specific salt tolerance, but also the timing of salt intrusion, as events during the spring or summer growing season pose a particular risk.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12237-026-01726-1.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 4","pages":"113"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13152930/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147867147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managing the Unmanageable: Understanding the Competing Effects of Salinity and Nutrient Loading on Estuarine Water Quality.","authors":"Marcus W Beck, Edward T Sherwood, Rebecca R Murphy, Kerry Flaherty-Walia, Qian Zhang, Blake A Simmons, Maya C Burke","doi":"10.1007/s12237-026-01792-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12237-026-01792-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Changing climatic conditions that can alter physical characteristics of surface waters may limit the effectiveness of conventional approaches to nutrient management. This study evaluated the competing effects of nutrient loads and changing salinity on chlorophyll-a dynamics in Tampa Bay (Florida, USA). This estuary has demonstrated long-term recovery of water quality primarily through wastewater infrastructure improvements, whereas a gradual freshening of the bay over the last few decades may compromise future management efforts to protect water quality. The relative effects of loading and salinity over a forty-year time period were evaluated using normalized predictions from Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). All bay segments showed a gradually increasing influence of reduced salinity on chlorophyll-a. Old Tampa Bay in the northwest also showed an increasing influence of nutrient loading. Simulation scenarios using the GAMs assessed the relative likelihood of exceeding regulatory chlorophyll-a standards under future salinity conditions. All bay segments showed an increased likelihood of exceeding regulatory standards, particularly in Old Tampa Bay where likelihood increased by ~ 16% over a fifty-year simulation. The results suggested that current nutrient loads should be substantially reduced below the federally-recognized Total Maximum Daily Load to maintain likelihood of meeting regulatory chlorophyll-a standards in the future that is similar to present. By understanding the effects of largely unmanageable characteristics of the bay, water quality managers can reassess efforts on limiting factors they can control relative to those they cannot.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12237-026-01792-5.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"49 6","pages":"178"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13437595/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148677721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}