Tidal Impoundment and Mangrove Dieback at Cabbage Tree Basin, NSW: Drivers of Change and Tailored Management for the Future

Abstract

Major storms can cause significant changes to coastal and wetland environments. A series of storm events in 2020 resulted in closure of the historically open estuary at Cabbage Tree Basin, Port Hacking, New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Prolonged tidal impoundment (3 months) led to substantial changes in hydrological and sedimentological processes, resulting in widespread mangrove dieback. This study aimed to quantify the degree of impact and recovery for mangroves, identify factors contributing to dieback, and consider the implications for carbon sequestration. This was achieved using remotely piloted aircraft structure-from-motion approaches, aerial photography, and field-based assessments of vegetation health and above-ground biomass (AGB). Mangroves were classified as ‘dead’, ‘partially dead’, and ‘live’. In October 2019, there was 10.8 ha of live mangroves, with this reduced to 6.6 ha by August 2022. Digital surface models (DSMs) were intersected with classified mangroves to assess the vertical distribution of each zone. All mangroves classified as ‘dead’ were distributed at elevations < 0.4 m with respect to the Australian Height Datum (AHD), suggesting these regions were persistently inundated, which was confirmed by water level loggers (inundated during logger deployment). Field data confirmed substrate elevation related to dieback with the proportion of ‘live’ mangroves greatest at elevations > 0.6 m AHD. Substrate elevation and distance to the estuary mouth were significantly correlated with species, with Avicennia marina located at lower tidal positions and closer to the entrance compared to Aegiceras corniculatum. The dieback event equated to a loss of 81.5 ± 48 Mg of above-ground biomass, 38.1 ± 22.5 Mg C, or 140 ± 82 Mg CO₂ equivalence (CO₂e). This study provides an important baseline for monitoring dieback events. Continued monitoring is crucial to assess recovery and to tailor management strategies.