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Adaptive charging strategies for electric vehicles: A reinforcement learning approach to demand response and resource management 电动汽车自适应充电策略:需求响应和资源管理的强化学习方法
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.109015
M. Subashini , V. Sumathi
{"title":"Adaptive charging strategies for electric vehicles: A reinforcement learning approach to demand response and resource management","authors":"M. Subashini ,&nbsp;V. Sumathi","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.109015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.109015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rising concerns over urban air quality have positioned electric vehicles (EVs) as a sustainable alternative to conventional transport. Large-scale EV adoption, however, depends on the availability of scalable, intelligent charging infrastructure. Effective scheduling of EV charging is vital to ensure reliability, economic efficiency, and user convenience, particularly in the presence of grid constraints and integrated energy storage systems (ESS). This study addresses the optimization of charge scheduling at a multi-lane EV charging station equipped with chargers of varying capacities, grid support, a 500 kW solar photovoltaic (PV) array, and a 200 kW ESS. Six scheduling strategies First-In-First-Out (FIFO), Earliest Deadline First (EDF), Remaining Time (RM), Least Laxity First (LLF), Improved LLF (Imp_LLF), and a Greedy method are evaluated under diverse traffic conditions and realistic operational constraints. A Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based meta-scheduler is further introduced to enable adaptive, real-time selection of the most suitable scheduling policy. By reducing state–action complexity and improving decision robustness, the meta-scheduler enhances both interpretability and adaptability. The agent demonstrates fast, state-dependent decision-making with a maximum action-selection latency of 21.574 ms, and achieves measurable performance gains over all classical baselines, outperforming the best heuristic by up to +101.82 reward points. Evaluation results confirm that the RL-driven framework consistently delivers higher allocation efficiency, reduced deadline violations, and enhanced scheduling stability across dynamic traffic scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 109015"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Encouraging biogas plant construction in Nepal using carbon revenues as interest rate subsidies and environmental income instead of purchase subsidies 鼓励在尼泊尔建设沼气厂,使用碳收入作为利率补贴和环境收入,而不是购买补贴
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108976
Samir Thapa , Mark Morrison , Kevin A. Parton
{"title":"Encouraging biogas plant construction in Nepal using carbon revenues as interest rate subsidies and environmental income instead of purchase subsidies","authors":"Samir Thapa ,&nbsp;Mark Morrison ,&nbsp;Kevin A. Parton","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108976","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108976","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Governments and project developers in developing countries can obtain substantial income from carbon revenues as households make the transition to clean energy technologies and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These revenues can be used in various ways to encourage further investments in clean energy. In this paper we examine the effectiveness of three alternative policy instruments for supporting this clean energy transition in relation to cooking with biogas plants in Nepal – carbon revenues as purchase subsidies on biogas plants, distribution of environmental income to households for continuing use of biogas plants, or interest rate subsidies related to purchases of biogas plants on credit. Thus far the sectoral focus has been on purchase subsidies, but these are increasingly declining in their effectiveness. Our results identify the effectiveness relative to government cost and carbon emissions reduction, from these three types of potential government policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108976"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Experimental investigation of a windthermal demonstrator with friction based direct wind-to-heat conversion 基于摩擦的风热直接转换演示器的实验研究
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.041
M. Bremer , M. Neumeier , A. Bagdahn , C. Campos Fernandez , J. Holtorf , S. Coners , C. Gentner , A. Dyck
{"title":"Experimental investigation of a windthermal demonstrator with friction based direct wind-to-heat conversion","authors":"M. Bremer ,&nbsp;M. Neumeier ,&nbsp;A. Bagdahn ,&nbsp;C. Campos Fernandez ,&nbsp;J. Holtorf ,&nbsp;S. Coners ,&nbsp;C. Gentner ,&nbsp;A. Dyck","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the feasibility of windthermal energy - direct conversion of a wind turbine’s rotational power into heat - using a first of its kind friction-based demonstrator that couples a small wind turbine to a thermal platform with a hydrodynamic retarder. We describe the experimental arrangement and provide an in-depth analysis of the thermal platform’s dynamics, heat-generation performance, and auxiliaries. A two-stage program combined motor-driven preliminary tests for set-up validation and optimization with wind-turbine-driven field trials. The demonstrator reliably generated heat, achieving a peak load of 8 kW and an overall system efficiency of 8.73 %. Challenges arose from off-design operation of the hydrodynamic retarder and temperature constraints, especially at oil temperatures below 50 ◦C. Efficiency can be improved by better matching the retarder to the load, refining the shaft system, and enhancing insulation. With these measures, windthermal energy could contribute to sustainable heat supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108904"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A machine learning framework for residential district cooling: Forecasting consumption, explaining drivers, and evaluating decarbonization pathways 住宅区域制冷的机器学习框架:预测消耗、解释驱动因素和评估脱碳途径
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108933
Kadhim Hayawi , Husna Maliakkal , Neethu Venugopal , Thanveer Musthafa Hussain , Gomathi Bhavani Rajagopalan
{"title":"A machine learning framework for residential district cooling: Forecasting consumption, explaining drivers, and evaluating decarbonization pathways","authors":"Kadhim Hayawi ,&nbsp;Husna Maliakkal ,&nbsp;Neethu Venugopal ,&nbsp;Thanveer Musthafa Hussain ,&nbsp;Gomathi Bhavani Rajagopalan","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108933","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108933","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>District Cooling Systems (DCS) in the Middle East, while energy-efficient, are significant contributors to carbon emissions. This study introduces a novel framework to decarbonize DCS operations by integrating predictive machine learning, explainable AI (XAI), and renewable energy planning, all grounded in extensive real-world data. Leveraging a unique dataset from 59 residential buildings in the UAE—including energy consumption, climate variables, and building features—we developed a high-fidelity cooling load forecasting model. Following a rigorous chronological validation methodology, the Random Forest model was identified as the most robust, achieving a strong performance (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.8256, RMSE = 11,668.31). Outdoor temperature was confirmed as a primary driver of cooling load (r = 0.79). XAI analysis using SHAP confirmed that temperature, month, and occupancy rate are the most influential predictors. Crucially, scenario-based evaluations found that, under annual-energy assumptions without temporal matching, a 25 % solar offset yields greater carbon savings than an aggressive 30 % energy efficiency improvement. These findings demonstrate a scalable, data-driven blueprint for enhancing the operational efficiency and sustainability of residential DCS. The framework provides an interpretable, evidence-based tool for policymakers to support climate goals, such as the UAE Vision 2050, in arid urban regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108933"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What is the climate and economic impact of incorporating food-grade CO₂ production in biomethane production plants? A Swedish case study 将食品级二氧化碳生产纳入生物甲烷生产工厂对气候和经济的影响是什么?瑞典案例研究
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.040
Stephanie S. Cordova , Jan Moestedt , Josefine Rasmussen , Gustav Edholm , Gabriella Olsson , Erik Nordell , Marcus Gustafsson
{"title":"What is the climate and economic impact of incorporating food-grade CO₂ production in biomethane production plants? A Swedish case study","authors":"Stephanie S. Cordova ,&nbsp;Jan Moestedt ,&nbsp;Josefine Rasmussen ,&nbsp;Gustav Edholm ,&nbsp;Gabriella Olsson ,&nbsp;Erik Nordell ,&nbsp;Marcus Gustafsson","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biomethane production plays a significant role in the bioeconomy and for defossilization. However, the potential of CO₂ utilization from biomethane is largely untapped, with only a handful of existing cases in Europe. Diverse applications of CO₂ exist, but food-grade liquefied CO₂ is usually demanded by the market, requiring biomethane facilities to implement conditioning steps, increasing costs. By applying life cycle assessment and costing, this study identified the effects of introducing food-grade CO₂ production in an existing biomethane production plant. Interviews were conducted to assess consumers’ willingness to pay for biomethane with lower climate impact. The results showed that when the captured CO₂ is used to substitute fossil-based CO₂, there is a potential emissions reduction of approximately 220 %. There is also a minor reduction of emissions (around 2 %) with only CO₂ capture by reducing the methane slip. Moreover, an increase of around 7 % in costs is expected in biomethane systems producing CO₂, without considering potential income from sales. In the studied Swedish context, private actors are willing to pay a higher price for fuel with lower climate impact since it can be used in marketing, while public actors are neutral or negative to a price increase.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108903"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145735719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
EV battery swapping for developing countries: Benefits, challenges, and perspectives from a local key stakeholders study 发展中国家的电动汽车电池交换:利益、挑战和来自当地关键利益相关者研究的观点
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.046
Daniel Simwaba , Abubaker Qutieshat
{"title":"EV battery swapping for developing countries: Benefits, challenges, and perspectives from a local key stakeholders study","authors":"Daniel Simwaba ,&nbsp;Abubaker Qutieshat","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electric-vehicle (EV) battery swapping has re-emerged as a viable pathway for accelerating e-mobility in developing economies, where limited charging infrastructure, second-hand vehicle dominance, and grid constraints continue to impede EV uptake. This article presents a critical review of global and regional developments in electric vehicle (EV) battery-swapping systems, integrating empirical and theoretical insights from peer-reviewed and institutional sources, alongside an analysis of policy documents, market assessments, and stakeholder perspectives compiled between 2023 and 2025. Building on Rogers’ Innovation Diffusion Model (IDM), the paper analyzes how key diffusion attributes—relative advantage (faster, cheaper charging), trialability (ease of testing through small pilot projects), compatibility (alignment with existing infrastructure and vehicle types), complexity, and observability—shape adoption potential in emerging markets. The review integrates comparative perspectives from China, India, and early African adopters such as Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda, where Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) models are demonstrating cost and efficiency benefits for two- and three-wheelers. To contextualize these patterns, complementary evidence from a stakeholder study in Zambia is incorporated, illustrating how local perceptions in a pre-adoption market mirror broader infrastructural and policy barriers found across the Global South. Key findings highlight that battery swapping offers distinct advantages—reduced downtime, lower upfront EV cost, and structured battery lifecycle management—yet faces compatibility, regulatory, and grid-readiness challenges that require coordinated policy and technical frameworks. The paper concludes by proposing an integrated framework linking diffusion attributes to actionable policy levers for scaling EV battery swapping in resource-constrained environments. Overall, this synthesis contributes to the literature by bridging global innovation theory with localized stakeholder evidence, offering guidance for policymakers, investors, and researchers seeking sustainable mobility transitions in developing regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108909"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145788907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Process intensification in bioethanol fermentation: Vacuum-assisted in-situ bioethanol removal for enhanced productivity and efficiency 生物乙醇发酵过程强化:真空辅助原位生物乙醇去除以提高生产力和效率
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.008
Behzad Kanani , Alireza Zahedi , Salman Movahedirad , Sina Tamiz
{"title":"Process intensification in bioethanol fermentation: Vacuum-assisted in-situ bioethanol removal for enhanced productivity and efficiency","authors":"Behzad Kanani ,&nbsp;Alireza Zahedi ,&nbsp;Salman Movahedirad ,&nbsp;Sina Tamiz","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vacuum fermentation has emerged as a promising process intensification strategy to address long-standing efficiency and sustainability challenges in industrial bioethanol production. As a widely used renewable fuel and functional processing aid, bioethanol plays an important role in the energy and food sectors. However, conventional fermentation processes face significant bottlenecks, including bioethanol and carbon dioxide inhibition, reduced yeast activity, extended fermentation time, and high energy demand for downstream separation. This review presents the first comprehensive technical analysis of vacuum fermentation, a method that enables in-situ bioethanol removal under reduced pressure conditions. This method enhances bioethanol productivity by up to 12 times, and reduces fermentation time by 30 %. By continuously extracting bioethanol, yeast concentration increases 1.5 times, and as a result sugar consumption enhances compared to conventional approach. Unlike pervaperation and gas stripping, VF avoids membrane fouling, high costs, and eliminates additional separatoin steps. Optimal operational conditions are identified as 0.067–0.1 bar pressure, 30–35 °C temperature, and pH between 4.5 and 5.5. Beyond performance improvements, vacuum fermentation contributes to sustainable production by reducing energy usage in distillation, lowering water consumption, and minimizing wastewater and vinasse generation. This review also offers a comparative evaluation of vacuum fermentation against other separation and inhibitor removal methods, providing insights for cleaner, more efficient bioethanol production systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108871"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probabilistic wind power modelling via heteroscedastic non-stationary gaussian processes 基于异方差非平稳高斯过程的风电概率建模
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.032
Domniki Ladopoulou , Dat Minh Hong , Petros Dellaportas
{"title":"Probabilistic wind power modelling via heteroscedastic non-stationary gaussian processes","authors":"Domniki Ladopoulou ,&nbsp;Dat Minh Hong ,&nbsp;Petros Dellaportas","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.12.032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate probabilistic prediction of wind power is crucial for maintaining grid stability and facilitating the efficient integration of renewable energy sources. Gaussian process (GP) models offer a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty; however, conventional approaches typically rely on stationary kernels and homoscedastic noise assumptions, which are inadequate for modelling the inherently non-stationary and heteroscedastic nature of wind speed and power output. We propose a heteroscedastic non-stationary GP framework based on the generalised spectral mixture kernel, enabling the model to capture input-dependent correlations as well as input-dependent variability in wind speed–power data. We evaluate the proposed model on 10-min supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements and compare it against GP variants with stationary and non-stationary kernels, as well as commonly used non-GP probabilistic baselines. The results highlight the necessity of modelling both non-stationarity and heteroscedasticity in wind power prediction and demonstrate the practical value of flexible non-stationary GP models in operational SCADA settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108895"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145718855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Urban-rural disparity in China’s residential energy consumption: Spatiotemporal dynamics, key drivers, and future trends 中国居民能源消费的城乡差异:时空动态、关键驱动因素及未来趋势
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108950
Rulong Zhuang , Jie Yang , Kena Mi , Xiaoyong Zhou
{"title":"Urban-rural disparity in China’s residential energy consumption: Spatiotemporal dynamics, key drivers, and future trends","authors":"Rulong Zhuang ,&nbsp;Jie Yang ,&nbsp;Kena Mi ,&nbsp;Xiaoyong Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the urban-rural divide in residential energy consumption (REC) is essential for designing equitable energy and decarbonization strategies. This study examines REC disparity in China using a framework combining the Dagum Gini coefficient, spatiotemporal geographic weighted regression (GTWR), and gray prediction. Key findings include: (1) From 1995–2022, urban REC grew faster than rural REC, although per capita REC showed signs of convergence, with persistent disparities indicated by an average inter-regional Gini coefficient of 0.420; (2) High-consumption clusters were concentrated in northern China, shifting from west to east over time; (3) REC structure changed in three stages: coal dominance (1995–2006), urban diversification and rural biomass reliance (2007–2017), and a shift towards clean energy in urban areas post-2018, while rural areas lagged; (4) Key drivers of REC disparity included residential consumption, population size, employment numbers, and energy structure, with spatial differences due to uneven economic development, urbanization and policy interventions; (5) Predictions for 2023–2050 suggest continued REC growth, with urban consumption outpacing rural, which could exacerbate existing disparities. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies, such as increasing rural clean energy support, balancing urban-rural infrastructure investment, and implementing dynamic carbon pricing to promote equitable decarbonization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108950"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal and diurnal variability of renewable resources in South Africa: Data-driven insights for hybrid system design and policy implementation 南非可再生资源的季节和日变化:混合系统设计和政策实施的数据驱动见解
IF 5.1 3区 工程技术
Energy Reports Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108942
Martins Osifeko, Josiah Munda
{"title":"Seasonal and diurnal variability of renewable resources in South Africa: Data-driven insights for hybrid system design and policy implementation","authors":"Martins Osifeko,&nbsp;Josiah Munda","doi":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South Africa’s energy transition, guided by the Integrated Resource Plan 2030 and Renewable Energy Masterplan, requires a clear understanding of seasonal and diurnal variability in renewable resources for effective hybrid system deployment. This study provides a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of solar and wind resources from 2020 to 2024 across all nine provinces, integrating ground-based and satellite datasets to enhance data reliability. Results show that the Northern Cape recorded the highest solar potential, with mean Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) of 251.1 W/m² and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) of 304.9 W/m², while KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga had the lowest GHI (∼195 W/m²) due to cloud cover and humidity. Wind speeds above 6 m/s were consistent in the Northern and Eastern Cape, supporting complementary night-time generation. A 2.3 GW hybrid techno-economic evaluation combining PV, wind, and storage showed that optimized provincial configurations reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by up to 18 % and curtailment by 25 %, while improving storage utilization and grid reliability. Sensitivity analysis indicated that ±20 % variations in capital cost, O&amp;M cost, and storage subsidies affected LCOE by 3–11 %, highlighting cost resilience across regions. The findings provide data-driven insights into resource variability and hybrid energy economics, supporting evidence-based policy, investment prioritization, and grid resilience planning for South Africa and comparable renewable-rich developing regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11798,"journal":{"name":"Energy Reports","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 108942"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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