Environmental Research Letters最新文献_第9页

Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions 北半球永久冻土对二氧化碳排放的滞后作用

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6

Ting Wei, Yueli Chen and Hui Wang

{"title":"Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions","authors":"Ting Wei, Yueli Chen and Hui Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is proposed to limit the level of global warming and minimize the impacts of climate crises. However, how permafrost may respond to negative carbon emissions remains unknown. Here, the response of near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated based on idealized carbon dioxide (CO2) ramp-up (284.7–1138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down model experiments. The results demonstrate that the timing of the minimum permafrost area lags the maximum CO2 concentration for decades, which is also observed in soil temperatures at different depths and active layer thicknesses (ALTs). When the CO2 concentration is reversed to the preindustrial level, the permafrost area decreases by ∼12% relative to the initial conditions, together with additional warming in the ground temperature at the top of the permafrost, indicating the hysteresis of permafrost to CO2 removal. The most profound hysteretic responses occur at high latitudes for soil temperatures owing to Arctic amplification and at the southern margins of the permafrost zones for permafrost and ALT that largely linked to the climate state. Moreover, the sensitivity of permafrost and the associated thermodynamic factors to CO2 change is generally lower during the CO2 ramp-down phase than during the ramp-up phase, likely due to the release of stored heat on land. The results reveal the behaviour of permafrost in response to negative carbon emissions, which is informative for the projections of permafrost towards carbon neutral targets. In addition, the results may provide a reference for permafrost-related tipping points (e.g. releasing long-term stored greenhouse gases and destabilising recalcitrant soil carbon) and risk management in the future.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Divergent response of energy exchange to heatwaves from flux tower observations among various vegetation types 从通量塔观测结果看不同植被类型能量交换对热浪的不同反应

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad69aa

Xiaohui Tian, Bo Qiu, Yueyang Ni, Jiuyi Chen, Lingfeng Li, Yipeng Cao and Siwen Zhao

{"title":"Divergent response of energy exchange to heatwaves from flux tower observations among various vegetation types","authors":"Xiaohui Tian, Bo Qiu, Yueyang Ni, Jiuyi Chen, Lingfeng Li, Yipeng Cao and Siwen Zhao","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad69aa","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69aa","url":null,"abstract":"The increasing frequency of European heatwaves and the associated impacts on ecosystems have raised widespread concern during the last two decades. The partitioning of surface energy between latent and sensible heat fluxes plays a pivotal role in regulating heat and water exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, the responses of surface energy partitioning during heatwave events and the contributions of changes in energy partitioning to heatwave development have been underexplored. Here, we investigated the responses of surface energy exchange to temperature extremes during four devastating European heatwaves (2003, 2010, 2018, and 2022) based on long‒term observations from 31 flux towers. Our results demonstrated that the divergent responses of surface energy exchange to heatwaves were modulated by vegetation type and background climate in Europe. Forests maintained similar latent heat fluxes as the climatological mean but largely increased sensible heat under heat‒stressed conditions. While grasslands and croplands tended to increase sensible heat by suppressing latent heat during heatwaves, especially under water‒stressed conditions. Furthermore, the changes in surface energy partitioning strengthened positive land‒atmosphere feedbacks during the heatwave period, leading to unprecedented temperature extremes. This study highlights the importance of surface energy partitioning in land‒atmosphere interactions and heatwave developments.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141937068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs 华南晚雨季降雨量与赤道太平洋 SST 之间关系的年代际变化

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a7

Shaolei Tang, Zhiyuan Zhang and Jing-Jia Luo

{"title":"Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs","authors":"Shaolei Tang, Zhiyuan Zhang and Jing-Jia Luo","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a7","url":null,"abstract":"The South China (SC) late rainy season rainfall (SCLR) is important to people’s livelihoods and properties of this densely populated and economically developed region. Based on observation and reanalysis datasets, this study identifies that the relationship between the SCLR and equatorial Pacific SSTs (EPSSTs) experiences an interdecadal change around the late 1970s. The SCLR is negatively correlated with the eastern EPSSTs during 1948–1977 (the previous epoch) but positively correlated with the central EPSSTs during 1978–2022, especially during the last three decades 1993–2022 (the post epoch). This is due to the interdecadal change in El Niño flavors and EPSSTs-tropical Atlantic SSTs (TASSTs) relationship. With the increasing frequency of central Pacific El Niños in the post epoch, the El Niño-related warm SST anomaly center shifts from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to the central equatorial Pacific (CEP). Correspondingly, the anomalous cyclone exerted by the CEP warming reaches SC and causes rainfall surplus there (westward propagation pathway). In contrast, the EEP warming in the previous epoch cannot influence the SCLR through the westward propagation pathway, but through shifting the westerly jet southward via heating the tropical troposphere. The southward shifted westerly jet crashes the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, triggering cyclonic circulations across the northern East Asia and North Pacific, which in turn cause anticyclonic circulations over the western SC and reduce SC rainfall (eastward propagation pathway). On the other hand, the CEP warming in the post epoch barely influence the SCLR through the eastward propagation pathway because of the enhanced negative relationship between EPSSTs and TASSTs.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Controlling factors of wildfires in Australia and their changes under global warming 澳大利亚野火的控制因素及其在全球变暖下的变化

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a9

Hien X Bui, Yi-Xian Li and Dietmar Dommenget

{"title":"Controlling factors of wildfires in Australia and their changes under global warming","authors":"Hien X Bui, Yi-Xian Li and Dietmar Dommenget","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a9","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates a fire weather index (FWI) and its associated components in Australia using the downscaled projects for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 dataset, aiming to understand how they respond to global warming, particularly associated with different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the historical simulation, multimodel mean composite results show positive anomalies of FWI during El Niño and negative anomalies during La Niña over most of Australia relative to the neutral year. At the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585 scenario), FWI anomalies increased across Australia; however, ENSO wildfire teleconnections weakened (−4.4%) during El Niño but strengthened (+6.0%) during La Niña, especially in northern Australia. Further examination of the contribution from individual environmental variables that enter the FWI shows that increased temperature and drought conditions with warming in La Niña strengthen positive FWI anomalies, thus making fire more favorable in north and central Australia. The impacts of relative humidity and wind speed anomaly changes also favor fire activity toward the north. These results suggest a more robust modulation of FWI in northern Australia by ENSO in a warmer climate; future efforts to predict wildfire will depend on the model’s ability to predict local climate conditions.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Operational differences lead to longer lifetimes of satellite detectable contrails from more fuel efficient aircraft 操作差异导致更省油的飞机产生的卫星可探测到的烟雾寿命更长

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b78

Edward Gryspeerdt, Marc E J Stettler, Roger Teoh, Ulrike Burkhardt, Toni Delovski, Oliver G A Driver and David Painemal

{"title":"Operational differences lead to longer lifetimes of satellite detectable contrails from more fuel efficient aircraft","authors":"Edward Gryspeerdt, Marc E J Stettler, Roger Teoh, Ulrike Burkhardt, Toni Delovski, Oliver G A Driver and David Painemal","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b78","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b78","url":null,"abstract":"Clouds produced by aircraft (known as contrails) contribute over half of the positive radiative forcing from aviation, but the size of this warming effect is highly uncertain. Their radiative effect is highly dependent on the microphysical properties and meteorological background state, varying strongly over the contrail lifecycle. In-situ observations have demonstrated an impact of aircraft and fuel type on contrail properties close to the aircraft, but there are few observational constraints at these longer timescales, despite these having a strong impact in high-resolution and global models. This work provides an observational quantification of these contrail controlling factors, matching air traffic data to satellite observations of contrails to isolate the role of the aircraft type in contrail properties and evolution. Investigating over 64 000 cases, a relationship between aircraft type and contrail formation is observed, with more efficient aircraft forming longer-lived satellite-detectable contrails more frequently, which could lead to a larger climate impact. This increase in contrail formation and lifetime is primarily driven by an increase in flight altitude. Business jets are also found to produce longer-lived satellite-detectable contrails despite their lower fuel flow, as they fly at higher altitudes. The increase in satellite-detected contrails behind more efficient aircraft suggests a trade-off between aircraft greenhouse gas emissions and the aviation climate impact through contrail production, due to differences in aircraft operation.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141937069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Power & protein—closing the ‘justice gap’ for food system transformation 权力与蛋白质--缩小 "正义差距"，促进粮食系统转型

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3d6f

Isabel Baudish, Kajsa Resare Sahlin, Christophe Béné, Peter Oosterveer, Heleen Prins and Laura Pereira

{"title":"Power & protein—closing the ‘justice gap’ for food system transformation","authors":"Isabel Baudish, Kajsa Resare Sahlin, Christophe Béné, Peter Oosterveer, Heleen Prins and Laura Pereira","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad3d6f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3d6f","url":null,"abstract":"The protein shift, or transition, entails a reduction in the production and consumption of animal-source foods, and an increase in plant-based foods and alternative proteins, at a global level. The shift is primarily motivated by the need to minimise the impact of the food system on social-ecological systems. We argue that rather than focusing singularly on transitioning a ‘protein gap’ in diets, redressing the ‘justice gap’ is a prerequisite for transformative change in food systems. In this context the justice gap is understood as the gap delineating those who have access to just food systems and those who do not. To substantiate our argument a justice lens is used to analyse the political–economic dimensions of such a transformation and to propose that the future of protein must engage with three core elements to be transformative—disruption, innovation and redistribution. Disruption entails challenging both the food trends that encourage the ‘meatification’ of diets, and the influence of ‘Big Meat’ in perpetuating these trends. Innovation emphasises that true novelty is found by designing justice into practices and processes, rather than by firing alternative protein silver bullets within existing food system paradigms. Redistribution stresses that food system redesign is predicated upon establishing fair shares for remaining protein budgets, using approaches anchored in contextual specificity and positionality. Through the application of a justice framework, we expose existing food system injustices related to production and consumption of protein, invite discussion on how such injustices can be addressed and reflect on implications for food system transformations. By reshaping the crux of the protein debate around the more salient concern of the justice gap, food system transformation can take shape.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"127 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141937073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Detailed height mapping of trees and buildings (HiTAB) in Chicago and its implications to urban climate studies 芝加哥树木和建筑物高度详图（HiTAB）及其对城市气候研究的影响

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad661a

Peiyuan Li and Ashish Sharma

{"title":"Detailed height mapping of trees and buildings (HiTAB) in Chicago and its implications to urban climate studies","authors":"Peiyuan Li and Ashish Sharma","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad661a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad661a","url":null,"abstract":"The vertical dimensions of urban morphology, specifically the heights of trees and buildings, exert significant influence on wind flow fields in urban street canyons and the thermal environment of the urban fabric, subsequently affecting the microclimate, noise levels, and air quality. Despite their importance, these critical attributes are less commonly available and rarely utilized in urban climate models compared to planar land use and land cover data. In this study, we explicitly mapped the height of trees and buildings (HiTAB) across the city of Chicago at 1 m spatial resolution using a data fusion approach. This approach integrates high-precision light detection and ranging (LiDAR) cloud point data, building footprint inventory, and multi-band satellite images. Specifically, the digital terrain and surface models were first created from the LiDAR dataset to calculate the height of surface objects, while the rest of the datasets were used to delineate trees and buildings. We validated the derived height information against the existing building database in downtown Chicago and the Meter-scale Urban Land Cover map from the Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. The co-investigation on trees and building heights offers a valuable initiative in the effort to inform urban land surface parameterizations using real-world data. Given their high spatial resolution, the height maps can be adopted in physical-based and data-driven urban models to achieve higher resolution and accuracy while lowering uncertainties. Moreover, our method can be extended to other urban regions, benefiting from the growing availability of high-resolution urban informatics globally. Collectively, these datasets can substantially contribute to future studies on hyper-local weather dynamics, urban heterogeneity, morphology, and planning, providing a more comprehensive understanding of urban environments.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141937074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Concurrent extremes in mid-latitude Asia triggered by resonance of multi-scale zonal wind 多尺度带状风共振引发的亚洲中纬度地区并发极端事件

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6918

Yingxiao Sun, Qianrong Ma, Taichen Feng, Zhonghua Qian, Zhiwei Zhu, Chao Li and Guolin Feng

{"title":"Concurrent extremes in mid-latitude Asia triggered by resonance of multi-scale zonal wind","authors":"Yingxiao Sun, Qianrong Ma, Taichen Feng, Zhonghua Qian, Zhiwei Zhu, Chao Li and Guolin Feng","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6918","url":null,"abstract":"Climatic changes worsen concurrent extreme climate events. In July and August of 2022 and 2020, respectively, unexpected concurrent extreme events occurred in mid-latitude Asia. The sudden and severe consequences highlight the importance of a thorough understanding of the drivers of such extreme events, which is crucial for improving predictions and implementing preventive measures to mitigate future risks. By applying multi-scale window transform methodology, a unique mechanism of multi-scale zonal wind resonance is identified, which manifests as a quasi-stationary co-coupling with low-frequency zonal winds. This resonance leads to barotropic instability, triggering abnormal low-frequency Rossby wave behavior in the entrance and exit regions of the quasi-stationary jet stream. Simultaneously, the intensified meridional wind, coupled with adiabatic atmospheric warming, amplifies baroclinic instability, resulting in an enhanced wave pattern and the high concurrence events of 2022. Under long term future global warming levels of 4 °C, the concurrence, strengthened by multi-scale zonal wind resonance, is expected to persist. The mechanism evident in 2022 plays a broader and more significant role in concurrent events compared to the mechanism in 2020. Under the process of warming, resonance phenomena, as observed in 2022, are projected to become more frequent.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cooperative food bank: a collective insurance regime to govern food insecurity and nitrogen pollution under risk 合作粮食银行：风险下治理粮食不安全和氮污染的集体保险制度

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f44

Wenying Liao, Vítor V Vasconcelos, Simon A Levin and Michael Oppenheimer

{"title":"Cooperative food bank: a collective insurance regime to govern food insecurity and nitrogen pollution under risk","authors":"Wenying Liao, Vítor V Vasconcelos, Simon A Levin and Michael Oppenheimer","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f44","url":null,"abstract":"Risks, such as climate change, disease outbreak, geopolitical tension, may exacerbate food insecurity by negatively impacting crop yield. Additional agricultural nitrogen input may partly offset yield losses, with a corresponding increase in nitrogen pollution. The problems of food insecurity and nitrogen pollution are urgent and global but have not been addressed in an integrated fashion. Current efforts to combat food insecurity occur primarily through the United Nations’ World Food Program at the international level, and, at the local community level, through food banks. The international program to monitor and reduce global nitrogen pollution is in its early stage. Food provision and nitrogen pollution reduction from agriculture presents a dual challenge that requires an integrated solution. Here, we propose a cooperative food bank, where membership is a matter of choice and is not coerced. Membership requires participants to reduce nitrogen pollution in agriculture but creates a risk-buffering system, providing food compensation when participants are affected by risk factors. We delineate the structure of the cooperative food bank, its operation, from the short-term mobilization of resources to long-term capacity building. Lastly, we assess the feasibility of its implementation and highlight the potential major roadblocks to its implementation within the current socio-political context. The cooperative food bank showcases a novel solution that simultaneously tackles food insecurity and nitrogen pollution via governance. We hope this proposal will stimulate a research agenda and policy discussions focused on integrated approaches to effective governance regimes for linked socio-environmental problems.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of future scenarios on the nitrogen loss from agricultural supply chains in the Chesapeake Bay 未来情景对切萨皮克湾农业供应链氮流失的影响

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d0b

Michael Gomez, Caitlin Grady, Lisa Wainger, Raj Cibin, David Abler, Darrell Bosch, Jason Kaye

{"title":"Impacts of future scenarios on the nitrogen loss from agricultural supply chains in the Chesapeake Bay","authors":"Michael Gomez, Caitlin Grady, Lisa Wainger, Raj Cibin, David Abler, Darrell Bosch, Jason Kaye","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d0b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d0b","url":null,"abstract":"Excessive nitrogen (N) pollution in the Chesapeake Bay is threatening ecological health. This study presents a multilayer N flow network model where each network layer represents a stage in the production step from raw agricultural commodities such as corn to final products such as packaged meat. We use this model to assess the impacts of alternative future agricultural production and land use changes on multiple pathways of N pollution within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). We analyzed N loss via all pathways under multiple future scenarios, considering crop-specific projections based on empirical data and US Department of Agriculture projections. We found two model parameters, fertilizer nitrogen application rate (FNAR) and feed conversion ratio (FCR), to be particularly important for seeing measurable N loss reductions in the Bay. Our results indicate a large increase in N loss under the business-as-usual trajectory in geographic locations with intensive agricultural production. We found that numerous management scenarios including improvements in FNAR and FCR, N losses fall short of the 25% total maximum daily load targets. Our work suggests that achieving the CBW N loss reduction goals will necessitate large deviations from business as usual. Our model also highlights substantial regional variations in nitrogen loss across the U.S., with central regions like the Corn Belt and Central Valley of California experiencing the highest losses from crop-related stages, while eastern areas such as the Chesapeake Bay exhibit major losses from live animal production, underscoring the need for region-specific management strategies. Thus, implementation of effective N management strategies, combined with improved crop residue management, remains pivotal in mitigating N pollution in the Chesapeake Bay.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141867254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0