Environmental Research Letters最新文献

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Exploring antecedents to climate migration: sense of place, fear and worry, and experience 探索气候迁移的前因:地方感、恐惧和担忧以及经验
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb9
Nina Berlin Rubin, Dana Rose Garfin, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi
{"title":"Exploring antecedents to climate migration: sense of place, fear and worry, and experience","authors":"Nina Berlin Rubin, Dana Rose Garfin, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb9","url":null,"abstract":"The bond between people and the place they live has significant implications for their migration decisions. However, few studies have examined how this relationship endures in the face of experience with climate-related hazards and associated emotions, and whether detachment from place may be related to future migration. Here we address this gap using cross-sectional survey data from a representative probability-based sample of 1479 residents of Texas and Florida—areas frequently affected by coastal hazards—to investigate the interplay between place attachment, place detachment, negative hazard experiences, hazard-related fear and worry, and prospective migration. We found that place attachment and detachment were inversely associated with one another, and that hazard-related fear and worry was associated with higher place detachment. Results indicated that place detachment and hazard-related fear and worry were positively associated with prospective migration, while place attachment was negatively associated with prospective migration. The absence of place attachment and presence of detachment may lower psychological barriers to relocation in the face of climate change. Negative hazard experiences were not associated with place attachment, place detachment, or prospective migration. However, our post-hoc analyses found an indirect association between negative hazard experiences and prospective migration, mediated by hazard-related fear and worry. This suggests that psychological correlates of climate hazards, possibly arising from experiencing them, may inform people’s sense of place and future migration decisions. Our findings highlight the salience of relationships with place in migration decisions and stress the importance of explicitly examining negative sentiments towards place in migration studies. These insights can both improve climate migration models and help tailor policies and programs aimed at supporting detached, fearful, and worried individuals in anticipation of future climate-related hazards.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of 10–30-day atmospheric oscillation on persistent compound heatwaves in the Yangtze River Delta with implications for local electricity demand and supply 10-30 天大气振荡对长江三角洲持续复合热浪的影响及对当地电力供需的影响
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6886
Jianying Li, Qingyao Xiao, Yang Chen, Jiangyu Mao, Lili Song, Panmao Zhai, Shu Wang
{"title":"Impacts of 10–30-day atmospheric oscillation on persistent compound heatwaves in the Yangtze River Delta with implications for local electricity demand and supply","authors":"Jianying Li, Qingyao Xiao, Yang Chen, Jiangyu Mao, Lili Song, Panmao Zhai, Shu Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6886","url":null,"abstract":"The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is a hotspot of compound heatwaves characterized by scorching day and sweltering night persisting for more than 3 days. The YRD compound heatwaves are intimately associated with the 10–30-day variations of air temperature, with 46 identified heatwaves during the summers of 1979–2022 mostly occurring within the positive phases of 10–30-day <italic toggle=\"yes\">T</italic><sub>max</sub> and <italic toggle=\"yes\">T</italic><sub>min</sub> anomalies. The coincidence of positive phases in 10–30-day <italic toggle=\"yes\">T</italic><sub>max</sub> and <italic toggle=\"yes\">T</italic><sub>min</sub> comes from a dipole pattern of the corresponding potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the upper troposphere. This dipole PV pattern leads to anomalous descents in the YRD and associated anticyclones in the lower troposphere. As a result, the increased adiabatic heating and incident solar radiation cause the extreme daytime heat. The enhanced humidity in the YRD increases the downward longwave radiation, resulting in the extreme nighttime temperatures. As the increased temperature and humidity enhance stratification stability in the lower troposphere, the coupling between daytime and nighttime heat extremes persists, leading to a compound heatwave. During a YRD compound heatwave, the 10–30-day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) exerts a potential influence on the electricity demand and supply. Continuous extreme heat leads to a dramatic surge in cooling demand. While the influence of 10–30-day ISO on wind energy resources is weak, the dipole pattern of 10–30-day PV anomalies strongly reduces solar energy resources over the mid–lower reaches of the Yellow River, thus exerting greater challenges for electricity supply to the YRD.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Socio-environmental impacts of mineral mining and conflicts in Southern and West Africa: navigating reflexive governance for environmental justice 南部和西部非洲矿产开采和冲突的社会环境影响:为环境正义的反思性治理导航
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7047
Llewellyn Leonard
{"title":"Socio-environmental impacts of mineral mining and conflicts in Southern and West Africa: navigating reflexive governance for environmental justice","authors":"Llewellyn Leonard","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7047","url":null,"abstract":"Mineral mining activities in Africa have long been associated with a myriad of socio-environmental impacts and conflicts, posing significant challenges to sustainable development and environmental justice. This paper explores the complex interplay between mineral mining, socio-environmental impacts, and conflicts in the Southern and West African region, with a focus on the imperative of reflexive governance for achieving just transitions and environmental justice. Drawing on a comprehensive literature review and cases from Southern and Western African countries, this paper examines the multifaceted nature of socio-environmental impacts resulting from mineral mining. These impacts encompass ecological degradation and social inequalities, among others. Furthermore, the paper delves into the dynamics of conflicts arising from mineral mining and competing interests such as natural resources and land rights. Additionally, the paper examines governance structures aimed at enhancing transparency, accountability, and environmental sustainability. The paper concludes by highlighting the implications of reflexive governance as a transformative tool for addressing the socio-environmental impacts of mineral mining and conflicts in Southern and West Africa. It underscores the urgency of adopting holistic and integrated approaches that prioritize environmental protection, social equity, and community well-being in the context of mineral resource extraction. The African Union can serve as the catalyst for reflexive governance and environmental justice in mineral resource extraction, with citizens also holding national governments accountable.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contrasting East Asian climate extremes in 2020 and 2022 tied to zonal flow 2020 年和 2022 年东亚极端气候的对比与带状流有关
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a72
Chao He, Matthew Collins, Tianjun Zhou, Xingwen Jiang, Peili Wu, Nick Dunstone
{"title":"Contrasting East Asian climate extremes in 2020 and 2022 tied to zonal flow","authors":"Chao He, Matthew Collins, Tianjun Zhou, Xingwen Jiang, Peili Wu, Nick Dunstone","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a72","url":null,"abstract":"Subtropical East Asia (STEA) experienced a historic flood in the summer of 2020, and historic drought and heatwaves in the summer of 2022. Previous studies emphasized the role of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), but there is a paradox that the contrasting climate extremes over STEA in 2020 and 2022 are both associated with anomalously strong WPSH. Given that local vertical motion has a dominant control on precipitation variability, here we investigate the mechanism for the variability of vertical motion in STEA. In most extratropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, ascent (descent) motion aligns with southerly (northerly) flow in the troposphere due to the northward tilting isentropic surfaces. However, isentropic surfaces tilt eastwards over STEA in the summer due to the existence of a strong warm center over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Thus, the ascent motion over the STEA is insensitive to the strength of southerly flow related to the intensity of the WPSH but sensitive to the strength of westerly flow related to the meridional shift of subtropical jet. The notably strong WPSH in 2020 and 2022 increased water vapor transport into STEA but had little impact on atmospheric vertical motion. However, the East Asian subtropical jet displaced southwards (northwards) in the summer of 2020 (2022), leading to anomalous westerly (easterly) flows in the mid-upper troposphere from TP to STEA on the jet’s southern flank, prompting anomalous ascent (descent) motion in STEA that contributed to the flood (drought) conditions in 2020 (2022). Our results highlight the essential role of anomalous zonal flow in generating surface climate extremes over STEA in the summer because of its strong control of vertical motion.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Balancing livestock production and environmental outcomes in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under global change 在全球变化下平衡澳大利亚北部热带稀树草原的畜牧业生产和环境成果
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6f2d
Rebecca K Runting, Darran King, Martin Nolan, Javier Navarro, Raymundo Marcos-Martinez, Jonathan R Rhodes, Lei Gao, Ian Watson, Andrew Ash, April E Reside, Jorge G Álvarez-Romero, Jessie A Wells, Euan G Ritchie, Michalis Hadjikakou, Don A Driscoll, Jeffery D Connor, Jonathan Garber, Brett A Bryan
{"title":"Balancing livestock production and environmental outcomes in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under global change","authors":"Rebecca K Runting, Darran King, Martin Nolan, Javier Navarro, Raymundo Marcos-Martinez, Jonathan R Rhodes, Lei Gao, Ian Watson, Andrew Ash, April E Reside, Jorge G Álvarez-Romero, Jessie A Wells, Euan G Ritchie, Michalis Hadjikakou, Don A Driscoll, Jeffery D Connor, Jonathan Garber, Brett A Bryan","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6f2d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6f2d","url":null,"abstract":"Livestock production is an integral part of the global food system and the livelihoods of local people, but it also raises questions of environmental sustainability due to issues such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity decline, land degradation, and water use. Further challenges to extensive livestock systems may arise from changes in climate and the global economy (particularly variation in prices for livestock and carbon). However, significant potential exists for both mitigating these impacts and adapting to change via altering stocking rates, managing fire, and supplementing cattle diets to reduce methane emissions. We developed an integrated, spatio-temporal modelling approach to assess the effectiveness of these options for land management in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under different global change scenarios. Performance was measured against a range of sustainability indicators, including environmental (GHG emissions, biodiversity, water intake, and land condition) and agricultural (profit, beef production) outcomes. Our model shows that maintaining historical stocking rates is not environmentally sustainable due to the accelerated land degradation exacerbated by a changing climate. However, planned early dry season burning substantially reduced emissions, and in our simulations was profitable under all global change scenarios that included a carbon price. Overall, the balance between production and environmental outcomes could be improved by stocking below modelled carrying capacity and implementing fire management. This management scenario was the most profitable (more than double the profit from maintaining historical stocking rates), prevented land degradation, and reduced GHG emissions by 23%. By integrating the cumulative impacts of climate change, external economic drivers, and management actions across a range of sustainability indicators, we show that the future of rangelands in Australia’s savannas has the potential to balance livestock production and environmental outcomes.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Land surface processes response to warming and wetting trend in Northwest China 中国西北地区地表过程对暖湿化趋势的响应
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad70cd
Xin Ma, Aihui Wang, Jianqi Sun
{"title":"Land surface processes response to warming and wetting trend in Northwest China","authors":"Xin Ma, Aihui Wang, Jianqi Sun","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad70cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad70cd","url":null,"abstract":"The climate in Northwest China (NWC) has undergone a warming and wetting trend (WWT) since the 1980s, which has attracted considerable attention from the scientific and policy communities. However, the majority of previous studies have focused on overall effects of WWT, and very few have examined how land surface system responds to climate warming or wetting trend, respectively. For this purpose, this study uses the Community Land Model (CLM5) driven by the Chinese Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) to conduct four modeling experiments: a control experiment (CTRL) and three sensitivity experiments, in which the annual trend of air temperature (NonWarm), precipitation (NonWet), and both (NonWWT) are removed from the CMFD from 1979 to 2018. Compared to CTRL, the land hydrological variables (i.e. soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration) show a visible reduction in magnitude, interannual variability, as well as annual trend in NonWet, while they are enhanced in NonWarm. In both NonWarm and NonWet, the magnitude and trend of both net radiation and sensible heat fluxes increase, with a more pronounced change in NonWWT. Further analysis indicates that the land surface processes are more sensitive to wetting trend than to warming trend. Among all land surface hydrological variables and energy variables, runoff and snow cover fraction are the most susceptible to climate change. Overall, the effects of climate change in Ta and Pr on surface hydrological variables are non-linearly offsetting, while the effects on surface energy budgets are non-linearly superimposed. Compared to warming trend, wetting trend plays a larger impact on the variability of land surface processes in NWC.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global convection-permitting model improves subseasonal forecast of plum rain around Japan 全球对流许可模型改进了日本周边梅雨的次季节预报
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad71e2
Jun Gu, Chun Zhao, Mingyue Xu, Jiawang Feng, Gudongze Li, Yongxuan Zhao, Xiaoyu Hao, Junshi Chen, Hong An
{"title":"Global convection-permitting model improves subseasonal forecast of plum rain around Japan","authors":"Jun Gu, Chun Zhao, Mingyue Xu, Jiawang Feng, Gudongze Li, Yongxuan Zhao, Xiaoyu Hao, Junshi Chen, Hong An","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad71e2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad71e2","url":null,"abstract":"In 2020 early summer, a historically severe rainy season struck East Asia, causing extensive damage to life and property. Subseasonal forecast of this event challenges the limits of rainy season predictability. Employing the integrated atmospheric model across scales and the Sunway supercomputer, we conducted ensemble one-month forecasts at global 3 km, variable 4–60 km, and global 60 km resolutions. The global convection-permitting forecast accurately captures the rainband, while other forecasts exhibited northward and weaker shifts due to the northward shifts of the atmospheric rivers over Japan, attributed to intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH). Further, the double-ITCZ-like tropical rainfall pattern in Western Pacific in global convection-permitting forecast contributes to a more accurate WNPSH and rainband. In contrast, other forecasts show a single-ITCZ-like pattern in Western Pacific, leading to a northward-shifted WNPSH and rainband, advocating the importance of accurately representing tropical convections, as they can significantly affect mid-/high-latitude weather and climate.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Warming-induced cryosphere changes predict drier Andean eco-regions 气候变暖引起的冰冻圈变化预示着安第斯生态区将更加干旱
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea6
Amen Al-Yaari, Thomas Condom, Fabien Anthelme, Sophie Cauvy-Fraunié, Olivier Dangles, Clémentine Junquas, Pierre Moret, Antoine Rabatel
{"title":"Warming-induced cryosphere changes predict drier Andean eco-regions","authors":"Amen Al-Yaari, Thomas Condom, Fabien Anthelme, Sophie Cauvy-Fraunié, Olivier Dangles, Clémentine Junquas, Pierre Moret, Antoine Rabatel","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea6","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change impacts on humans and ecosystems depend on the intensity, timing, and spatial variability of these changes. While considerable attention has been paid to current and future changes in temperature patterns, comparatively less attention has been devoted to water availability for humans and ecosystems. The aridity index (AI), the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration, is a common metric used to assess water availability within ecosystems. However, the role of snow in AI calculations within snowy eco-regions is often neglected, resulting in an incomplete understanding of water balance dynamics in these environments. In this study, we estimate aridification under ongoing climate change in Andean eco-regions (AEs), focusing on two horizons: 2050–2060 and 2090–2100. Using monthly TerraClimate data from 2013–2018, we calculated a mean AI for each AE, taking into account the absence of snow (pixels with a snow water equivalent (SWE) &lt; 10 mm/month) and its presence (AI-snow; pixels with a SWE &gt; 10 mm/month). We show that AI allows to differentiate the eco-regions, but that the incorporation of snow in the AI calculation highlights the heterogeneity of aridity conditions within some eco-regions with energy-limited regimes (AI &gt; 1) in the snowy zones and water-limited regimes (AI &lt; 1) elsewhere. Analysis of the CORDEX-SAM regional projections for the periods 2050–2060 and 2090–2100 indicates a general shift towards drier conditions prevailing over wetter conditions in most eco-regions, notably: the Southern Andean Steppe, the Central Andean Wet Puna, the Santa Marta Páramo, and the Peruvian Yungas. The projected reduction in snowfall in CORDEX-SAM, coupled with glacier volume loss, appears to be contributing to the prevalence of aridification across many AEs. These findings highlight potential transitions towards aridification in diverse eco-regions, with repercussions on water availability for humans and ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"275 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Attribution of extremes to greenhouse gas-induced changes in regional climate variability, distinct from changes in mean climate 将极端现象归因于温室气体引起的区域气候变异性变化,而不是平均气候的变化
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad715a
Armineh Barkhordarian
{"title":"Attribution of extremes to greenhouse gas-induced changes in regional climate variability, distinct from changes in mean climate","authors":"Armineh Barkhordarian","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad715a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad715a","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in regional climate variability serve as the initial indicators of positive climate feedback mechanisms, which are expected to intensify as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions unfold. Therefore, it is crucial to examine the extent to which GHG-induced changes in regional climate variability, in isolation from changes in mean climate, contribute to the frequency of extreme weather events. In this study, I build upon the concept of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) by introducing the fraction of preventable risk (FPR), allowing for the assessment of GHG forcing’s contribution to risk reduction in scenarios of decreasing risk extremes. Results derived from four global climate models indicate that while the predominant factor amplifying the frequency of hot extremes is the mean warming, with a 18-fold increase in probability and an attributable risk fraction of 0.96 to GHG forcing, changes in regional climate variability have already modified the probability of extremes. In South Asia, for instance, the 12-fold increase in hot extremes resulting from mean warming is compounded by an additional ∼3 times, solely attributed to the increased temperature variability. Conversely, during winter in the Arctic, the 10-fold increase in the frequency of hot extremes due to mean warming is offset by a ∼2.5-fold decrease resulting from diminished variability, with a preventable risk fraction of −0.55 to GHG forcing. Concerning heavy-precipitation events, in certain regions, GHG-induced changes in precipitation variability carry greater significance than changes in the mean. For example, in the West African summer monsoon region GHG forcing is amplifying the risk of extreme monsoon precipitation by ∼4 times. This amplified risk of potential flooding arises from increases in both mean precipitation and variability. Separating attribution metrics into mean and variability components offers valuable insights into region-specific mechanisms affecting extreme event frequency.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"331 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heavy grazing reduces the potential for grassland restoration: a global meta-analysis 重度放牧降低了草原恢复的潜力:全球荟萃分析
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad703f
Wentao Mi, Weibo Ren, Yuan Chi, Hao Zheng, Ellen Fry, Feng Yuan, Yaling Liu
{"title":"Heavy grazing reduces the potential for grassland restoration: a global meta-analysis","authors":"Wentao Mi, Weibo Ren, Yuan Chi, Hao Zheng, Ellen Fry, Feng Yuan, Yaling Liu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad703f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad703f","url":null,"abstract":"Soil seed banks are the main seed reservoirs globally and are critical for the regeneration of grassland plant populations. Grazing often affects the density and diversity of grassland soil seed banks; however, it is not clear how these effects vary on a global scale with grazing intensity, grazing duration, and climatic conditions. Here, we screened 92 independent published articles and performed a meta-analysis of the extracted data. The effects of grazing on four soil seed bank density and diversity indices were analyzed. Four alpha diversity indices, namely Shannon–Wiener, Margalef, Pielou, and Simpson indices, were selected in this study. The Shannon–Wiener index reflects the species complexity of the community. The Margalef index reflects species richness of the seed bank. The Pielou index reflects whether the number of seeds of all species in the seed bank is evenly distributed, and the Simpson’s index reflects the status of dominant plants in the seed bank. We found that grazing significantly decreased the total density of soil seed banks. Perennial plant seed banks were more affected by grazing than annual plant seed banks. Heavy grazing significantly decreased the Margalef index of seed banks, while moderate grazing significantly decreased the Simpson’s alpha diversity index. Long-term grazing (&gt;10 years) had the greatest impact on Simpson’s alpha diversity index, while medium-term grazing (5–10 years) had a significant negative impact on Shannon–Wiener, Margalef, and Pielou indices. In addition, our results show that grazing has a greater effect on seed banks in arid areas than those in temperate areas. Knowledge of climate-specific effects will contribute to understanding the risk of local extinctions in grassland populations and help decision-makers maintain the health of grassland ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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