在全球变化下平衡澳大利亚北部热带稀树草原的畜牧业生产和环境成果

IF 5.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Rebecca K Runting, Darran King, Martin Nolan, Javier Navarro, Raymundo Marcos-Martinez, Jonathan R Rhodes, Lei Gao, Ian Watson, Andrew Ash, April E Reside, Jorge G Álvarez-Romero, Jessie A Wells, Euan G Ritchie, Michalis Hadjikakou, Don A Driscoll, Jeffery D Connor, Jonathan Garber, Brett A Bryan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

畜牧业生产是全球粮食系统和当地人民生计不可或缺的一部分,但由于温室气体排放、生物多样性减少、土地退化和水资源利用等问题,畜牧业生产也引发了环境可持续性问题。气候和全球经济的变化(特别是牲畜和碳价格的变化)可能会给大规模畜牧业系统带来进一步的挑战。然而,通过改变放养率、管理火源和补充牛日粮以减少甲烷排放,既能减轻这些影响,又能适应变化的潜力巨大。我们开发了一种综合时空建模方法,以评估在不同的全球变化情景下,这些方案在澳大利亚北部热带稀树草原土地管理中的有效性。我们根据一系列可持续发展指标,包括环境(温室气体排放、生物多样性、水摄入量和土地状况)和农业(利润、牛肉产量)成果来衡量绩效。我们的模型显示,由于气候变化加剧了土地退化,维持历史上的放养率在环境上是不可持续的。然而,有计划的旱季早期焚烧大大减少了排放量,而且在我们的模拟中,在所有包含碳价格的全球变化情景下都是有利可图的。总体而言,可以通过低于模拟承载能力的存栏量和实施火烧管理来改善生产和环境结果之间的平衡。这种管理方案是最有利可图的(比保持历史放养率的利润高出一倍多),可以防止土地退化,并减少 23% 的温室气体排放。通过整合气候变化、外部经济驱动因素和管理措施对一系列可持续发展指标的累积影响,我们表明澳大利亚热带稀树草原牧场的未来有可能在畜牧业生产和环境结果之间取得平衡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Balancing livestock production and environmental outcomes in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under global change
Livestock production is an integral part of the global food system and the livelihoods of local people, but it also raises questions of environmental sustainability due to issues such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity decline, land degradation, and water use. Further challenges to extensive livestock systems may arise from changes in climate and the global economy (particularly variation in prices for livestock and carbon). However, significant potential exists for both mitigating these impacts and adapting to change via altering stocking rates, managing fire, and supplementing cattle diets to reduce methane emissions. We developed an integrated, spatio-temporal modelling approach to assess the effectiveness of these options for land management in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under different global change scenarios. Performance was measured against a range of sustainability indicators, including environmental (GHG emissions, biodiversity, water intake, and land condition) and agricultural (profit, beef production) outcomes. Our model shows that maintaining historical stocking rates is not environmentally sustainable due to the accelerated land degradation exacerbated by a changing climate. However, planned early dry season burning substantially reduced emissions, and in our simulations was profitable under all global change scenarios that included a carbon price. Overall, the balance between production and environmental outcomes could be improved by stocking below modelled carrying capacity and implementing fire management. This management scenario was the most profitable (more than double the profit from maintaining historical stocking rates), prevented land degradation, and reduced GHG emissions by 23%. By integrating the cumulative impacts of climate change, external economic drivers, and management actions across a range of sustainability indicators, we show that the future of rangelands in Australia’s savannas has the potential to balance livestock production and environmental outcomes.
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来源期刊
Environmental Research Letters
Environmental Research Letters 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
11.90
自引率
4.50%
发文量
763
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Environmental Research Letters (ERL) is a high-impact, open-access journal intended to be the meeting place of the research and policy communities concerned with environmental change and management. The journal''s coverage reflects the increasingly interdisciplinary nature of environmental science, recognizing the wide-ranging contributions to the development of methods, tools and evaluation strategies relevant to the field. Submissions from across all components of the Earth system, i.e. land, atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere, and exchanges between these components are welcome.
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