Energy Conversion and Management最新文献

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Comprehensive thermo-economic analysis of an isobaric compressed CO2 energy storage system: Improvement of the thermodynamic pathway 等压压缩二氧化碳储能系统的综合热经济分析:改进热力学途径
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119088
{"title":"Comprehensive thermo-economic analysis of an isobaric compressed CO2 energy storage system: Improvement of the thermodynamic pathway","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119088","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119088","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mitigating fluctuations across multi-time scales is crucial for the large-scale integration of renewable energy, and compressed carbon dioxide energy storage (CCES) is one of the most promising technological pathways. To enhance the performance of CCES systems, this paper proposes an isobaric CO<sub>2</sub> storage device and constructs various charge–discharge pathways. Thermodynamic analyses are conducted from both process and system perspectives, and economic performance under different pathway combinations is investigated. The results indicate that the energy consumption for isobaric storage is significantly lower than the exergy destruction under isochoric storage. The compressed heat evaporation path can effectively reduce evaporation loss and achieves a charging efficiency of 73.56 %. The discharge path (D-path) coupled with waste heat can significantly increase system capacity, with discharge efficiency improving from 62.73 % to 70.68 %. Utilizing the ambient heat evaporation without external heat source, the optimal roundtrip efficiency is 53.42 % and the corresponding low storage pressure is 4.2 MPa. Moreover, under the combination of flash evaporation and external heat source, the system roundtrip efficiency decreases with promotion of the low storage pressure, and the optimal energy and exergy efficiencies of 42.83 % and 75.95 % can be achieved near the critical pressure. The integration of compression heat evaporation and external heat source offers the competitive economic performance, the levelized cost of unit electricity and payback period are 0.144$/kWh and 7.07 years by coupling with low-temperature waste heat at 400 K.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comprehensive thermodynamic modeling, feasibility, and optimization study of a renewable energy powered system for sustainable cold chain applications − Cooling, power, heating, and green hydrogen production 针对可持续冷链应用的可再生能源供电系统的综合热力学建模、可行性和优化研究 - 制冷、供电、供热和绿色制氢
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119137
{"title":"A comprehensive thermodynamic modeling, feasibility, and optimization study of a renewable energy powered system for sustainable cold chain applications − Cooling, power, heating, and green hydrogen production","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable supply chain management, especially in downstream distribution, is crucial for reducing environmental impact. As consumer awareness of sustainable food supply grows, food distribution systems must enhance their environmental performance while maintaining economic competitiveness. In India’s fish distribution system, a capacitated distribution network within a two-layer supply chain is proposed, focusing on minimizing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and distribution costs through sustainable multi-objective optimization. A hybrid renewable energy-powered fish chain application is introduced, covering storage, drying, transportation, and cold chain functions. The system is optimized at three levels: thermal design of energy resources, total hybrid energy consumption, and selection of environmentally friendly working fluids. Implemented in tropical India’s high fishing grounds, it uses solar thermal via parabolic trough collectors and biomass seaweed boiler at non-sunshine hours. The coastal plant features a cascade organic Rankine cycle, a multi-temperature fish cold storage system, and a PEM green hydrogen production system for truck operations. The system achieves an energy efficiency of 17.6 %, exergy efficiency of 9.3 %, and reduces CO<sub>2</sub> by 2 tons per day, with a feasible payback period of 2.76 years. This research offers insights for transitioning from traditional, energy-intensive methods to renewable energy-powered alternatives, enhancing sustainable fish transportation globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance analysis of a new precooled engine cycle based on the combined pre-compressor cooling with mass injection and heat exchanger 基于大量喷射和热交换器联合预压缩器冷却的新型预冷发动机循环的性能分析
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119139
{"title":"Performance analysis of a new precooled engine cycle based on the combined pre-compressor cooling with mass injection and heat exchanger","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precooling is a highly effective strategy for enhancing the performance of turbine engines at high Mach numbers. To address the challenges of high flow resistance and significant mass in heat exchanger pre-compressor cooling (HEPCC), as well as the low heat exchange efficiency in mass injection pre-compressor cooling (MIPCC), this paper introduces a novel combined pre-compressor cooling (CPCC) system. This innovative approach integrates a mass injection device with a heat exchanger, aiming to enhance precooling performance by allowing the low-resistance mass injection device to share part of the heat load managed by the compact heat exchanger. To reveal the CPCC’s performance, an analysis model of the combined precooled engine cycle and a one-dimensional heat exchanger model have been developed. The dual-fuel scheme utilizing NH<sub>3</sub> and RP3, along with a suitable precooling layout for CPCC, has been evaluated and adopted. Simulations indicate that within a fuel ratio range of 0.5 to 2, the CPCC can enhance the maximum operating Mach number by 0.17 to 0.23 compared to the MIPCC. In comparison to the HEPCC, the CPCC’s specific thrust can increase by up to 28.66% under the height constraint of precooler, and by up to 15.91% under the weight constraint. Moreover, the CPCC achieves optimal performance when the fuel ratio reaches its acceptable maximum value. This research comprehensively evaluates the CPCC, highlighting its potential to significantly enhance engine performance at high Mach numbers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Valorization of olive mill wastewater as a process medium in co-hydrothermal carbonization with Sicilian agro-wastes: effects of interaction on product yield and properties 在与西西里农业废弃物共同水热碳化过程中,将橄榄油厂废水作为加工介质加以利用:相互作用对产品产量和特性的影响
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119147
{"title":"Valorization of olive mill wastewater as a process medium in co-hydrothermal carbonization with Sicilian agro-wastes: effects of interaction on product yield and properties","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work explores the valorization of residual olive mill wastewater as a process aqueous medium for co-hydrothermal carbonization (co-HTC) of typical Sicilian agro-wastes (tangerine and orange peel wastes). Co-HTC experiments were carried out at 180 and 220 °C to assess the interaction between the feedstocks. Synergistic effects increased the yield of hydrochar and gas phases while antagonism altered the formation of aqueous products. Compared to the expected value, hydrochar yield was increased by 37 wt%, on average, while the interaction effect on gas phase was weaker (+23 wt%, on average) and increased with temperature. Both the retention of unhydrolyzed primary char and the recapture of secondary char phases from process water enhanced the hydrochar recovery in different ways according to feedstock nature and co-HTC conditions. On the basis of hydrochars characterization through elemental analysis and surface functionality, the degree of carbonization was significantly improved after co-HTC due to promoted dehydration and decarboxylation reactions. As result, co-hydrochars exhibited a moderately higher energy content and a greater thermal stability compared to samples obtained from HTC of individual substrates. Co-hydrochars also retained relatively high amounts of nutrients such as phosphorus, potassium and calcium, which could enable their use as soil improvers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Joint operating rules for large-scale hydro–hydrogen–based hybrid energy systems 大型水氢混合能源系统的联合运行规则
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119134
{"title":"Joint operating rules for large-scale hydro–hydrogen–based hybrid energy systems","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Both adjustable hydropower and hydrogen power present viable solutions to address the intermittency and fluctuations of renewables such as wind and photovoltaic power. To complement non-schedulable renewables, previous studies have individually explored the operating strategies of hydropower or hydrogen power. However, the joint operating rules of hydropower and hydrogen power have seldom been investigated, primarily due to the complex reciprocal relationship between multiple adjustable power sources. This study aims to develop the joint operating rules for hydro–hydrogen–wind–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems (HESs). First, a deterministic optimal operation model is built to optimize both the operation benefit and assurance rate. Subsequently, the operation decisions are synthesized to identify reference values of operation rules’ parameters, with cross-correlation analysis aiding in the identification of the proper decision variables. Finally, operating rules’ parameters are optimized through the direct policy search method. Results from a case study using China’s Ertan hydro–hydrogen–wind–photovoltaic HES indicate that the reservoir release emerges as the most influential decision variable for formulating joint operating rules. Notably, the joint operating rules outperform conventional methods, yielding a 16.93% improvement in annual operational benefits and a 7.31% increase in assurance rates. These findings underscore the substantial enhancements in energy use efficiency facilitated by the proposed joint operating rules.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integration of district heating systems with small modular reactors and organic Rankine cycle including energy storage: Design and energy management optimization 将区域供热系统与小型模块化反应堆和有机朗肯循环(包括能量储存)相结合:设计和能源管理优化
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119138
{"title":"Integration of district heating systems with small modular reactors and organic Rankine cycle including energy storage: Design and energy management optimization","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119138","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119138","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The heat-only small modular reactor (SMR) concept is one of the potential carbon-free solutions for replacing fossil fuel-based district heating systems (DHSs). This idea faces an economic challenge (high levelized cost of heat) due to high capital cost and low capacity factor (because of demand fluctuations) in stand-alone operation mode. This study proposes integrating DHSs with heat-only SMRs and organic Rankine cycle (ORC) electricity generation to maximize the system’s economic profit. Heat storage, gas boiler, and electricity storage are candidate units for optimizing the system’s energy management. The developed optimization method is a mixed-integer nonlinear problem (MINLP). The objective variables are the equipment’s design capacities and hour-by-hour operation, and the net present value (NPV) is the objective function. Considering a typical DHS in Czechia (peak of 41 MW<sub>t</sub>), the optimized integration found comprises a heat-only SMR (Teplator-150 MW<sub>t</sub>), an ORC power plant of (20 MW<sub>e</sub>), heat storage of (10000 MW<sub>t</sub>h), a gas boiler of (3.4 MW<sub>t</sub>), and (20 MW<sub>e</sub>/120 MW<sub>e</sub>h) electricity storage. This system and its energy management optimization enhanced the SMR’s capacity factor (from 10 % to 83 %), and the NPV changed from a loss of 50 M€ to a gain of 357 M€ compared to the basic heat-only supply system. The sensitivity analyses showed that the size and technology of ORC, the interest rate, and the electricity price are the most important factors in the system’s economic viability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recent advances, challenges, and opportunities in lignin valorization for value-Added chemicals, biofuels, and polymeric materials 木质素在增值化学品、生物燃料和聚合材料方面的最新进展、挑战和机遇
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119123
{"title":"Recent advances, challenges, and opportunities in lignin valorization for value-Added chemicals, biofuels, and polymeric materials","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lignin, an abundant and renewable resource, is increasingly important for renewable energy and sustainable development. Recent attention has focused on producing value-added chemicals, biofuels, and polymeric materials from lignin. This review discusses the processes for generating value-added chemicals via catalytic depolymerization, detailing the methods, mechanisms, and catalysts involved. It also covers the conversion of depolymerization products into compounds like vanillin, phenol, benzoic acid, and fatty acids through dehydrogenation, demethylation, and microbial fermentation. In biofuel production, the review systematically examines techniques for transforming lignin into transportation fuels, such as biodiesel and aviation fuel, as well as high-energy–density fuels through hydrodeoxygenation. Additionally, it addresses lignin-based polymeric materials, including epoxy resins and thermoplastic polyurethanes, emphasizing functional group modification techniques that enhance their properties compared to petroleum-based alternatives. The review identifies current technological barriers and emerging research directions to improve the efficient conversion of lignin into value-added products, aiming to advance its industrial applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Thermal assessment of a dual-purpose air/water heating system with perforated concrete matrix and water storage 带穿孔混凝土基体和储水的空气/水两用供暖系统的热评估
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119122
{"title":"Thermal assessment of a dual-purpose air/water heating system with perforated concrete matrix and water storage","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The main objective of this study is to design and optimize an innovative concrete based dual-purpose solar collector with working fluids of air and water. The system is designed, built, and tested in the Tunisian climate, and its main feature is that it warms both air and water. Different configurations have been tested and analyzed based on the air/water inlet positions and the convection mode, in order to determine the highest thermal efficiency for given solar energy input. The findings indicate that perforations enhance the surface area for heat absorption and facilitate better airflow, whereas the water storage tank acts as a dependable thermal mass for storing and stabilizing the collected energy. For example, the air outlet temperature reached 30 °C at night. This illustrates the effectiveness of using both concrete and water as thermal energy storage mediums, highlighting the superior thermal potential of the developed system in comparison to traditional solar heating systems. The collector’s dual-fluid efficiency is 80.59 % while operating under the air forced convection regime, and 79.77 % when using an up-water input. Therefore, there is potential for application in the areas of space heating and residential hot water use, particularly in cold climates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Balancing the carbon formation and removal by regulating Zr doping within CeO2 nanotube-supported-Ni catalysts for deriving the superior stability in low-temperature dry reforming of methane 通过调节 CeO2 纳米管支撑的 Ni 催化剂中的 Zr 掺杂平衡碳的形成和去除,从而获得甲烷低温干转化过程中的卓越稳定性
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119140
{"title":"Balancing the carbon formation and removal by regulating Zr doping within CeO2 nanotube-supported-Ni catalysts for deriving the superior stability in low-temperature dry reforming of methane","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low-temperature dry reforming of methane (DRM) is prospective for utilizing CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> to produce syngas, after solving the challenge of severe coke deposition due to the kinetic imbalance between carbon formation and removal. Herein, Ni/Ce<sub>1-</sub><em><sub>x</sub></em>Zr<em><sub>x</sub></em>O<sub>2</sub> catalysts were prepared by doping various Zr atomic ratios (<em>x</em> = 0 ∼ 0.10) into thin-walled CeO<sub>2</sub> nanotubes, and their kinetic balance on the DRM process at 550 ℃ was investigated. Ni/Ce<sub>0.93</sub>Zr<sub>0.07</sub>O<sub>2</sub> and Ni/CeO<sub>2</sub> show coke deposits of 5.24 % and 71.27 %, respectively, for 10-hour DRM, and especially, the former has a negligible increase of 1.64 % while extending to 100 h, indicating Ni/Ce<sub>0.93</sub>Zr<sub>0.07</sub>O<sub>2</sub> achieves kinetic balance and superior stability. Theoretical calculations show that Zr doping partially weakens Ce-O bonds, promoting the formation of oxygen vacancies (<em>V</em><sub>o</sub>) and the migration of mobile oxygen species (<em>O</em><sub>m</sub>) to Ni sites<sub>.</sub> As <em>x</em> increases from 0 to 0.07, the carbon formation rates from CH<sub>4</sub> decomposition and CO disproportionation gradually decrease, while its removal via the <em>V</em><sub>o</sub> and <em>O</em><sub>m</sub> routes increases linearly. In-situ DRIFT reveals that rich <em>O</em><sub>m</sub> could passivate Ni sites and assist CH<sub>y</sub> (<em>y</em> = 1 ∼ 3) in converting to CO, and the direct dissociation of CO<sub>2</sub> occurs on <em>V</em><sub>o</sub> sites, so that significant gaseous CO bands and slower CH<sub>y</sub> decomposition are observed in Ni/Ce<sub>0.93</sub>Zr<sub>0.07</sub>O<sub>2</sub> compared to Ni/CeO<sub>2</sub>. Our findings provide an alternative method for designing a stable catalyst to boost the coke-free DRM at low temperatures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enhanced photovoltaic power generation forecasting for newly-built plants via Physics-Infused transfer learning with domain adversarial neural networks 通过域对抗神经网络的物理注入式迁移学习,增强新建电站的光伏发电预测能力
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术
Energy Conversion and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119114
{"title":"Enhanced photovoltaic power generation forecasting for newly-built plants via Physics-Infused transfer learning with domain adversarial neural networks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enconman.2024.119114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate anticipation of photovoltaic (PV) power generation in advance is crucial for renewable energy development, infrastructure planning, efficient power grid operations, and energy management. Emerging data-driven methods represented by deep learning have provided effective solutions for PV power generation forecasting. However, conventional data-driven forecasting algorithms rely heavily on extensive historical data, making it challenging to predict the output of newly-built PV plants (NPP) due to limited data availability. To address this concern, a novel physics-infused transfer learning model is proposed for short-term cross-plant PV power prediction, which leverages the public prediction knowledge learnt from relevant PV plants to develop a predictor compatible with NPP. Key innovations include: (1) Firstly, we propose a forecasting-oriented Domain Adversarial Neural Network (DANN) that incorporates Wasserstein distance, enabling the reduction of the discrepancy in the feature vector distribution between source and target plants through iterative adversarial training. The feature vectors from NPP would be compatible with a predictor trained on the feature vectors from data-rich PV plants. (2) Secondly, this framework implicitly transfers the intricate regression patterns from data-rich PV plants to NPP with limited historical measurements, allowing for the capture of short-term fluctuations using real-time data as input. (3) Subsequently, a well-calibrated physical model chain enables the refined and stabilized numerical calculations in the conversion from solar irradiance to PV power output, thus extending the forecasting horizon. (4) Finally, the Bayesian combination model (BCM) is deployed to coordinate the two sub-predictors, enabling simultaneous prediction of trends and short-term fluctuations. The hybrid framework is formulated and validated adopting real-world PV data from four PV plants in North China. Simulation results indicate that the prediction accuracy outperforms all selected benchmark models. Compared to standalone models trained on the scarce data of NPP, the transfer learning-based model can reduce prediction errors by approximately 20% to 68%. Moreover, the proposed model demonstrates excellent generalizability and robustness, effectively mitigating the effects of geographical disparities among source and target domains, the performance of cross-geographic region transfer forecasting task is improved by 30% − 40% compared to the traditional alternative.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11664,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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