Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112143
Yuta Saito
{"title":"Exit expectations and the optimal design of a currency union","authors":"Yuta Saito","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the impact of exit expectations on the optimal design of a currency union. The union is composed of core member countries, which face the time-inconsistency problem, and peripheral countries, which do not. Peripheral members play a crucial role as a commitment mechanism, enhancing the policy credibility of core countries. We demonstrate that an increase in exit expectations leads to a higher optimal number of peripheral members from the perspective of the core countries. This suggests that heterogeneous membership may be advantageous, particularly in times of political uncertainty when the public anticipates potential exits from the currency union.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112143"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112151
Vassilios G. Papavassiliou , Fan Dora Xia
{"title":"Liquidity in the euro area sovereign bond market during the “dash for cash” driven by the COVID-19 crisis","authors":"Vassilios G. Papavassiliou , Fan Dora Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the liquidity of the euro area sovereign bond market during the March 2020 dash for cash. We provide evidence that liquidity was significantly impaired across the three core euro area countries. We note that the liquidity deterioration was not as severe as that during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. Spikes in illiquidity are reversed in the period immediately following the dash for cash episode. We also document strong commonalities in liquidity that are reduced after the dash for cash. This finding indicates that variation in liquidity exhibits a strong common component highlighting the systemic risk that comes as a result.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112151"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112132
Mattia Chiappari, Francesco Scotti, Andrea Flori
{"title":"Portfolio hedging through a novel equity index based on the verified emissions of EU ETS-regulated firms","authors":"Mattia Chiappari, Francesco Scotti, Andrea Flori","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build an equity index based on EU ETS-regulated listed firms. The weights of our index reflect the cross-sectional heterogeneity in the firms’ environmental performances measured in terms of verified rather than estimated or self-reported emissions. By using a DCC-GARCH model, we estimate optimal weights and assess the hedge effectiveness of the EU ETS index across multiple asset classes. The index provides robust hedging benefits, particularly during Phases III and IV of the EU ETS, aligning with stricter environmental policies. Portfolio optimization techniques show that incorporating the EU ETS index enhances risk-adjusted performance. Our findings offer actionable insights for investors seeking to minimize financial risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112132"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112136
Emanuele Millemaci , Fabio Monteforte , Jonathan R.W. Temple
{"title":"Electing for stability: Democracy and output volatility, 1960-2019","authors":"Emanuele Millemaci , Fabio Monteforte , Jonathan R.W. Temple","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between output volatility and democracy, decade by decade after 1960. Using a range of approaches to identification, we find that democratic countries are less volatile.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112136"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112178
Xuewen Qian, Chen Qu
{"title":"Pathologies of iterated strict dominance revisited","authors":"Xuewen Qian, Chen Qu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112178","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112178","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We revisit two pathologies of iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies (IESDS) in infinite games: spurious Nash equilibria and order dependence. By introducing bounded dominance relations (Hsieh et al., 2023), we demonstrate that a bounded version of IESDS mitigates the former issue and is neutral to the latter. The second point is illustrated through a series of examples using ordinals. We also provide a sufficient and necessary condition for the non-existence of spurious Nash equilibria.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112178"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112133
Yuk-fai Fong , Tsz-him Lau , Xiaoxuan Meng , Lin Zhao
{"title":"Referral network and consumer trust","authors":"Yuk-fai Fong , Tsz-him Lau , Xiaoxuan Meng , Lin Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies repeated interactions between experts and consumers to explore how referral networks, where experts refer consumers to those with the appropriate areas of expertise within the network, promote trust and honesty. When consumers’ searches for second opinions are directed by referrals, they visit fewer experts before their problems are fixed. This results in experts meeting fewer consumers each period, limiting their opportunities to exploit consumers, thereby promoting truth-telling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112133"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143128792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112129
Pierpaolo Battigalli , Giovanni Di Bartolomeo , Stefano Papa
{"title":"Guilt aversion and inequality in dictator games","authors":"Pierpaolo Battigalli , Giovanni Di Bartolomeo , Stefano Papa","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the interplay between guilt aversion and inequality in decision-making, specifically in the context of a dictator game. Considering different initial allocations of the surplus, we investigate how the material opportunity cost of reducing inequality influences sharing behavior, revealing a complex relationship among guilt-driven choices and material opportunity costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112129"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143131233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112187
Christer Thrane
{"title":"Nationalistic bias in experts’ player ratings in football","authors":"Christer Thrane","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112187","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112187","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using Norwegian data, we examine nationalistic bias in experts’ player ratings in football (soccer). Controlling for a large set of performance-related factors and possibly confounding player characteristics, we find a statistically significant nationality effect. We interpret this as nationalistic bias.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112187"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112173
Alessandro Bellocchi, Giuseppe Travaglini
{"title":"Financial literacy and financial education: The role of irreversible costs","authors":"Alessandro Bellocchi, Giuseppe Travaglini","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Financial literacy is a specific “asset” and its achievement may imply irreversible costs. These elements affect the household’s decision to invest in financial education. To explore the issue we use a stochastic dynamic model of portfolio choice in which the cost of financial education is sunk. We show that education costs, uncertainty and irreversibility affect household’s choice to either exercise the option or defer to the future the decision to invest in financial education. This result may provide an explanation to the so-called ‘financial literacy paradox’.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112173"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112142
Xiaodu Xie
{"title":"Indirect and direct forecasting of volatility-timing portfolios","authors":"Xiaodu Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112142","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112142","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent studies have challenged the usefulness of variance–covariance matrix forecasting for the purpose of minimum-variance portfolio construction, instead advocating for the direct forecasting of realized weights. This study examines the value of this direct approach when dimension reduction is handled in the portfolio construction problem via popular volatility timing strategies. Using empirical data from the 45 largest U.S. stocks, this paper reveals that the traditional indirect approach, which relies on volatility forecasts, consistently delivers higher out-of-sample portfolio Sharpe ratios. This finding is robust to random portfolio selection, forecasting horizons, and transaction costs. The results demonstrate the continued usefulness of volatility forecasting models in portfolio construction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112142"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}