Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-17DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112455
Mauri Kotamäki
{"title":"Purpose matters: Impact of public loan guarantees on business growth","authors":"Mauri Kotamäki","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112455","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of public bank loan guarantees on firm performance in Finland, a small and open economy, leveraging a novel empirical approach and detailed financial instrument analysis. We combine registry-based data with records from Finnvera, Finland’s National Promotional Bank, and apply the cutting-edge panel matching methodology of Imai et al. (2023) to address causal inference challenges in this context. Our results reveal that guarantees significantly boost turnover, employment, and total assets, with effects varying by loan purpose. Notably, guarantees tied to intangible investments yield the strongest growth in turnover and employment, alongside substantial asset expansion, a granularity often overlooked in prior studies. While average productivity effects are near zero, we uncover tentative evidence of positive productivity gains for intangible capital guarantees. Further disaggregation highlights amplified impacts among micro-enterprises, offering fresh insights into the heterogeneity of policy outcomes. These findings advance our understanding of public financial instruments’ role in fostering economic growth at a nuanced level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112455"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144329786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-16DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112444
Ahmed W. Alam , Reza Houston
{"title":"Politically connected suppliers and firm financial stability","authors":"Ahmed W. Alam , Reza Houston","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While prior studies focus on the impact of a firm’s own political connections on its financial performance, this paper examines whether and how a firm’s financial stability is affected by the political connectivity of its key suppliers. Controlling for supplier-buyer relationship strength and the focal firm’s own political connections, empirical tests reveal that politically connected supplier industries significantly impair the financial performance of a focal firm. Furthermore, a firm’s financial stability is substantially eroded by the increases in political expenditures of its major supplier industry. These outcomes are more severe for focal firms with low market power and remain robust to using a combination of matched samples, dealing with possible selection bias. Further tests indicate that capital investments and business innovations are two potential channels through which politically connected suppliers destabilize the focal firm’s financial performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112444"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144297880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-16DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112450
Daniel Levy , Haipeng (Allan) Chen , Sourav Ray , Elliot Charette , Xiao Ling , Weihong Zhao , Mark Bergen , Avichai Snir
{"title":"Asymmetric price adjustment over the business cycle","authors":"Daniel Levy , Haipeng (Allan) Chen , Sourav Ray , Elliot Charette , Xiao Ling , Weihong Zhao , Mark Bergen , Avichai Snir","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112450","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Studies of micro-level price datasets find more frequent <em>small</em> price increases than decreases, which can be explained by consumer inattention because time-constrained shoppers might ignore small price changes. Recent empirical studies of the link between shopping behavior and price attention over the business cycle find that consumers are more (less) attentive to prices during economic downturns (booms). These two sets of findings have a testable implication: the asymmetry in small price changes should vary over the business cycle—it should diminish during recessions and strengthen during expansions. We test this prediction using a large US store-level dataset with more than 98 million weekly price observations for the years 1989–1997, which includes an 8-month recession period, as defined by the NBER. We compare price adjustments between periods of recession (high unemployment) and expansion (low unemployment). Focusing on small price changes, we find, consistent with our hypothesis, that there is a greater asymmetry in small price changes during periods of low unemployment compared to the periods of high unemployment, implying that firms’ price-setting behavior varies over the business cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112450"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-14DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112417
Paul Niekamp, Lyndsey Ketterling
{"title":"Home alone: Schooling and the effect of child access prevention laws on juvenile firearm-related homicide","authors":"Paul Niekamp, Lyndsey Ketterling","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do the effects of Child Access Prevention (CAP) laws interact with juvenile supervision? Previous work finds that CAP laws reduce juvenile firearm-related homicide. However, little is known about the interacting role of child supervision and schooling. Using monthly data from the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of CAP laws across variation in juvenile unsupervised time induced by school breaks. Staggered difference-in-differences estimates indicate that CAP laws, particularly negligent storage laws, have a greater effect during school breaks when juveniles are less incapacitated. Analysis using variation in school closure timing for summer break confirms this interaction, demonstrating that the effect of CAP laws, designed to penalize unsupervised juvenile access to firearms, peaks when school incapacitation is lowest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112417"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-13DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112422
Takuya Iimura , Ryuta Isogaya
{"title":"Efficient stable matching in school choice","authors":"Takuya Iimura , Ryuta Isogaya","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112422","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112422","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show, in the context of school choice, that when the lists of preferences and priority orderings are acyclic in the sense of Gutin et al. (2023), the outcomes of the deferred acceptance and top trading cycle algorithms coincide. This implies that the student-optimal stable matching is efficient. Furthermore, we show that if schools’ priority orderings of students are based on the sum of school-independent basic points and school-dependent additional points, and if students’ preferences align with these additional points, then the lists are acyclic. Additionally, if students can and do decline the addition of points that their preferences do not align with, then the lists become acyclic, regardless of the preference list.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112422"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144297879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-12DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112442
Yafei Li , James Si Zeng , Shaoxiang Jiang
{"title":"Does environmental regulation complement ESG Disclosure? Evidence from the emergence of pollution emission permits regime in China","authors":"Yafei Li , James Si Zeng , Shaoxiang Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112442","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112442","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the staggered adoption of the Pollution Emission Permit as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine whether environmental regulations and ESG disclosures can complement each other. Our findings reveal that this policy reduces pollution among Chinese listed corporations while enhancing the accuracy and quality of ESG disclosures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112442"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144291022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-09DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112404
Alejandro Moreno , Joaquín Ordieres-Meré
{"title":"Predicting stock price trends using language models to extract the sentiment from analyst reports: Evidence from IBEX 35-listed companies","authors":"Alejandro Moreno , Joaquín Ordieres-Meré","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112404","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112404","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the utility of large language models to extract sentiment from sell-side equity analysts’ reports and their potential ability to predict stock price trends, using the IBEX 35 index as a case study. The RoBERTa, FinBERT, and GPT natural language processing models are employed to analyze a corpus of analysts’ equity research reports over 2016–2022. The results indicate that the extracted sentiment can serve as a valuable tool for forecasting stock price movements, avoiding the potential bias in analyst reports when assigning a target price. This highlights the transformative potential of language models in the financial industry and their role in assisting investors in making informed investment decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112404"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-07DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112441
Jihong Xiao, Yudong Wang, Danyan Wen
{"title":"Global climate policy uncertainty and carbon market volatility: Aggravating or mitigating across market conditions?","authors":"Jihong Xiao, Yudong Wang, Danyan Wen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112441","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using quantile regression, this paper finds that lagged changes in global climate policy uncertainty (GCPU) reduce carbon market volatility during market turmoil. This mitigating effect surpasses that of the US CPU and is amplified by financial market fear.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112441"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144270258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112412
Cortney S. Rodet
{"title":"Revisiting the positive effects of diversity on creative teams in novel creative tasks","authors":"Cortney S. Rodet","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Teamwork matters in the modern economy, and recent scholarship convincingly suggests that diversity in experience, training, and knowledge allows teams to more readily generate novel ideas in numerous forms, including patents, scientific scholarship, and laboratory experiments. Experimental research often uses the alternative uses task to observe participants engaging in divergent thinking. This study extends the study of diversity in experience, training, and knowledge to novel creative tasks, including a verb task, a business slogan task, and a hypothesis task. It also extends previous research by analyzing diversity’s effects on the originality of ideas based on latent semantic analysis and on the propensity of teams to use unique words to form creative ideas. Results indicate that, consistent with previous research, diversity in knowledge, training, and achievement outside the laboratory is associated with teams generating a greater number of ideas; however, it does not affect overall originality or uniqueness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112412"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144261850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112436
Steven Brakman, Charles van Marrewijk
{"title":"International money transfers; Paradoxes and the balance-of-payments","authors":"Steven Brakman, Charles van Marrewijk","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112436","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The literature on international transfers has studied the possibility of transfer paradoxes; the donor gains and the recipient loses from a transfer. This can occur in a wide range of circumstances, including perfect competition and the absence of distortions. The literature, however, largely ignores the fact that most transfers are given in the form of money and not in real (consumption) terms. Money holdings reflect postponed consumption and requires that a time dimension enters the analysis. This aspect is ignored in the literature. We focus on money transfers in a Walrasian perfect competition model that is common in the literature. We determine whether transfer paradoxes are likely. We also study the welfare consequences of financial transfers for the donor and the recipient, and their impact on the Balance-of-Payments. We find that under normal circumstances transfer paradoxes do not occur, the donor's current account deteriorates and the recipient's current account improves.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 112436"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144280825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}