Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112582
Ding Xiong, Yao Sun
{"title":"The rising cost of turmoil: geopolitical crises and supply chain risk","authors":"Ding Xiong, Yao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From resource dependence theory and political risk theory, this paper empirically examines the impact of geopolitical crises (GC) on supply chain risk (SCR). Research findings reveal that GC significantly exacerbates SCR, operating through three pathways: erosion of supply chain resilience, elevation of client concentration, and deterioration of inventory liquidity. Further analyses indicate this effect is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises and during periods of lower economic uncertainty. Notably, corporate political connections act as a buffer against geopolitical shocks, with firms whose executive teams possess higher political ranks exhibiting substantially reduced risk exposure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112582"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112576
Cody Couture, Ann L. Owen
{"title":"Social media advertising and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from Meta","authors":"Cody Couture, Ann L. Owen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the relationship between social media advertising and macroeconomic expectations. We find evidence that social media advertising targeting results in heterogeneous exposure to sentiment and economic issues by demographic. In addition, we find evidence that social media advertising affects beliefs about the macroeconomy, particularly inflation expectations, although this result is driven by women between 35 and 44 years of age.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112576"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112533
Andreas Baur , Florian Dorn , Lisandra Flach , Clemens Fuest
{"title":"Geoeconomic fragmentation and the role of non-aligned countries","authors":"Andreas Baur , Florian Dorn , Lisandra Flach , Clemens Fuest","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze how non-aligned countries affect welfare outcomes in scenarios of global trade fragmentation. Using a quantitative trade model covering 141 countries and 65 economic sectors, we simulate different scenarios of geoeconomic fragmentation. We find that major non-aligned countries benefit from their neutral position, with welfare gains of up to 0.7 percent that vary significantly across sectors. These gains turn into significant losses if they join either the Western or Eastern trade bloc. Moreover, world welfare losses increase from −1.9 percent under incomplete fragmentation to −2.7 percent when non-aligned countries join the West and to −3.7 percent when they join the East. Our results highlight the strategic importance of non-aligned countries in mitigating the negative effects of global trade fragmentation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112533"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-08-30DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112569
Mahsa Akbari , Duman Bahrami-Rad , Erik O. Kimbrough
{"title":"Revisiting kin and ethnic favoritism in the bribery experiment","authors":"Mahsa Akbari , Duman Bahrami-Rad , Erik O. Kimbrough","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We report a conceptual replication of Akbari et al. (2020), who study the impact of co-ethnicity and kinship on behavior in an experimental “bribery game”. In the game, player A can offer a bribe to B, who can help A by inefficiently transferring resources from passive third-party C. We replicate the finding that by varying the relatedness of A, B and C, we can substantially modulate the willingness of A to offer the bribe and the willingness of B to reciprocate the bribe by harming C. The findings are consistent with theories of kin altruism and ethnic favoritism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112569"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145011027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-08-28DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112561
Marcel Marohn , Benjamin R. Auer
{"title":"Minimum variance investing under sustainability constraints","authors":"Marcel Marohn , Benjamin R. Auer","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by the recent rehabilitation of traditional portfolio theory and the growing interest of investors in integrating corporate sustainability into their investment decisions, this note derives the explicit weight formula of the global minimum variance portfolio in a mean–variance portfolio optimization setup with sustainability constraints. Additionally, it identifies the critical boundary a sustainability restriction must satisfy in order to affect portfolio weights and provides an analytic expression for the important two-asset optimization case. Finally, a supplementary empirical application illustrates the consequences of effective restrictions on investment performance and portfolio composition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112561"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-08-28DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112553
Ji-Woong Moon
{"title":"Incidence of corporate tax on wages and bargaining power","authors":"Ji-Woong Moon","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do wages respond to changes in the corporate tax under rent-sharing? If so, does the elasticity of wages to tax increase with workers’ bargaining power? This paper shows that, contrary to common intuition, these questions do not have a universal answer. Under Nash bargaining, wages do not respond to proportional corporate tax unless there are untaxed revenues. Under Kalai bargaining, wages respond to tax, but the relationship between elasticity and bargaining power is hump-shaped. This occurs because higher bargaining power not only increases the wage response to tax given pre-tax profits, but also amplifies the wage response to pre-tax profits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112553"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144916750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-08-27DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112581
Kenneth Baldwin , Maryam Alhalboni
{"title":"Cash out or carry on: When bank runs build resilience","authors":"Kenneth Baldwin , Maryam Alhalboni","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We integrate liquidity risk into a first passage time solvency model to measure the joint probability of bank default. Counterintuitively, we find that the interaction between liquidity and solvency risks can, under plausible conditions, lower the overall likelihood of default. This finding is significant to the supply of credit to the real economy, as it reduces the pressure on banks to scale back risk-taking by tightening lending conditions after negative liquidity shocks. As far as we know, our combined liquidity-solvency model is the first to demonstrate this stabilizing effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112581"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145046784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-08-25DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112579
Benjamin Böninghausen, Johanne Evrard, Zakaria Gati, Sofia Gori, Claudia Lambert, Wagner Eduardo Schuster
{"title":"Assessing the economic impact of going public: evidence from firm-level data in the euro area","authors":"Benjamin Böninghausen, Johanne Evrard, Zakaria Gati, Sofia Gori, Claudia Lambert, Wagner Eduardo Schuster","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Listing equity in public markets can provide firms access to new capital and investment opportunities, benefiting the broader economy. But how does listing affect profitability and investment? To identify the \"pure\" effect of listing, we use propensity score matching and a staggered difference-in-difference approach. Using euro-area firm-level data, we compare public and private firms to explore listing's broader economic impact. We show that firms’ profitability increases after listing – indicative of wider economic benefits. Listed firms however seem to invest less long-term, indicating potential short-termism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112579"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-08-23DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112575
David Barlow
{"title":"Divisia broad money, financial regulation and the welfare cost of inflation","authors":"David Barlow","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper argues that the welfare gains from reduced inflation calculated using Divisia broad money is biased upwards by the exclusion of Money Market Deposit Accounts from the Divisia index in the late 1970s and early 1980s.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112575"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144908298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-08-21DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112567
Jin Seo Cho
{"title":"Practical testing for the normal mixture","authors":"Jin Seo Cho","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The current study provides a Gaussian version used to test for the normal mixture hypothesis with a single mean and two distinct variances. We derive the Gaussian version for the model by associating its score function with the generalized Laguerre polynomial. The Gaussian version is analytical, so that it can be simulated to obtain the asymptotic critical values of the likelihood-ratio test.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112567"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}