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Oil supply shocks and inflation tail risks 石油供应冲击和通胀尾部风险
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113096
Andrea De Polis, Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo, José Nicolás Rosas
{"title":"Oil supply shocks and inflation tail risks","authors":"Andrea De Polis,&nbsp;Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo,&nbsp;José Nicolás Rosas","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the asymmetric transmission of oil supply news shocks to the inflation distribution in the United States, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. Using quantile local projections and high-frequency identification, we document a stark asymmetry across these three large advanced economies: while median responses are transitory, the 90th quantile exhibits significant and persistent increases beyond one year. This upside tail sensitivity, consistent with state-dependent pricing, suggests that supply shocks are structural innovations to the skewness of the inflation distribution. Monetary policy should actively monitor such persistent inflation tail risks to keep expectations anchored.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113096"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mispredictions about dishonesty after unfair treatment 不公平对待后对不诚实行为的错误预测
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113100
Joel W. Berge, Pablo Soto-Mota
{"title":"Mispredictions about dishonesty after unfair treatment","authors":"Joel W. Berge,&nbsp;Pablo Soto-Mota","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We used a preregistered incentivized online experiment to examine whether unfair treatment increases dishonesty toward uninvolved third parties and whether observers anticipate such effects. Unfairly treated participants were not significantly more likely to lie for personal gain. In contrast, spectators were nearly twice as likely to bet that unfairly treated participants would lie and judged such lying as more morally acceptable following unfair treatment. These patterns provide preliminary evidence of a sizeable belief–behavior gap in expectations about how unfairness influences dishonesty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113100"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Moral hazard spillovers across losses 道德风险的溢出效应
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113101
Hong Li, Tao Li
{"title":"Moral hazard spillovers across losses","authors":"Hong Li,&nbsp;Tao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This note analyzes how the moral hazard underlying one loss spills over to another. In a competitive insurance market with two mutually exclusive losses — one is subject to moral hazard while the other is not — we demonstrate that policyholders buy only partial insurance coverage for both losses, even if the second is free of moral hazard. Moreover, the coverage for the second loss is always more generous, and numerical analysis shows that the coverage gap widens with more efficient prevention efforts or lower risk aversion. A mutual assistance mechanism that allows acquainted policyholders to share uninsured risks is introduced to alleviate moral hazard and enhance social welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113101"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bayesian group shrinkage for spatial autoregressive model with convex combination of spatial weights matrices 空间权矩阵凸组合空间自回归模型的贝叶斯群收缩
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113104
Zhengzheng Cai, Xiaoyi Han, Jianchao Zhuo
{"title":"Bayesian group shrinkage for spatial autoregressive model with convex combination of spatial weights matrices","authors":"Zhengzheng Cai,&nbsp;Xiaoyi Han,&nbsp;Jianchao Zhuo","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the spatial autoregressive model with convex combination of spatial weights matrices categorized in groups, an empirically relevant specification that has received limited attention in the spatial econometrics literature. We employ the Group Inverse-Gamma Gamma (GIGG) prior introduced by Boss et al. (2024) to distinguish between relevant and irrelevant groups, identify influential spatial weights matrices, and mitigate multicollinearity arising from correlations among matrices within the same group. A computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for estimation, inference, and hyperparameter tuning. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed prior performs effectively in both parameter estimation and variable selection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113104"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partisan differences among independents: Evidence from household economic expectations 无党派人士的党派分歧：来自家庭经济预期的证据
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113116
Pedro Simon
{"title":"Partisan differences among independents: Evidence from household economic expectations","authors":"Pedro Simon","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I document that self-declared politically Independent households with partisan leanings change economic expectations in ways that resemble weak partisans. Republican leaners align more with weak Republicans, while Democratic leaners are similar to weak Democrats in their macroeconomic beliefs. This insight has important implications for survey design and for how researchers categorize political affiliation in economic analyses. Classifying leaners as neutral Independents can distort estimates of partisan differences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113116"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The SNAP benefit cycle beyond the mean: Substitution across payment sources and distributional heterogeneity 超过平均值的SNAP收益周期：跨支付来源的替代和分配异质性
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113105
Pourya Valizadeh, Bart L. Fischer
{"title":"The SNAP benefit cycle beyond the mean: Substitution across payment sources and distributional heterogeneity","authors":"Pourya Valizadeh,&nbsp;Bart L. Fischer","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mean grocery spending by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) households peaks at benefit receipt and declines thereafter. Using novel shopping receipt data with observed trip-level tender information across a range of retailers, store formats, and shopping channels, we examine whether households partially smooth grocery spending over the benefit cycle through substitution across payment sources and whether the effects of benefit receipt vary across the grocery spending distribution. We find evidence of smoothing at the extensive margin through modest increases in non-SNAP-funded shopping trips. Distributional analyses reveal more pronounced spending cycles at higher grocery spending quantiles along with suggestive evidence of weaker substitution toward non-SNAP-funded payment sources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113105"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The fragility of the partisan inflation gap: Evidence from the United Kingdom 党派通胀差距的脆弱性：来自英国的证据
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113106
Amr Saber Algarhi
{"title":"The fragility of the partisan inflation gap: Evidence from the United Kingdom","authors":"Amr Saber Algarhi","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Partisan theory predicts that left-leaning governments tolerate higher inflation, and UK data appear to confirm it. Before 1997, inflation averaged three percentage points higher under Labour than the Conservatives. I show this gap is not robust. It is the product of a single Labour government (1974–79) that coincided with the OPEC oil shocks; a randomisation test at the level of governments returns <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.50</mn></mrow></math></span>, and omitting any one of nine governments can swing the gap by up to four points. With so few in the sample, the data cannot sustain the partisan effect they appear to show.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113106"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficiency in producing life satisfaction: A stochastic frontier analysis 生产生活满意度的效率：随机前沿分析
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113097
Gang Chen, Puguang Nie, Xibin Zhang
{"title":"Efficiency in producing life satisfaction: A stochastic frontier analysis","authors":"Gang Chen,&nbsp;Puguang Nie,&nbsp;Xibin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We employ a semiparametric stochastic frontier model with ordinal outcomes to study efficiency in producing overall life satisfaction. Inefficiency is specified as an unknown function of discrete characteristics using a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson estimator. A Bayesian procedure is developed to estimate latent variables and model parameters, including the bandwidths of the nonparametric component. The empirical analysis examines the role of the Big Five personality traits and individual resilience, showing that individuals who are more extraverted, agreeable, conscientious, and resilient, or less neurotic, tend to be more efficient in converting satisfaction across multiple life domains into overall life satisfaction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113097"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the existence of equilibrium in the super manager model 论超级管理者模型中均衡的存在性
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113098
Kailin Ding, Zhenyu Cui, Yanchu Liu, Cai Kure Wu
{"title":"On the existence of equilibrium in the super manager model","authors":"Kailin Ding,&nbsp;Zhenyu Cui,&nbsp;Yanchu Liu,&nbsp;Cai Kure Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The super manager model developed in Baranchuk et al. (2011) is revisited in this paper. We show that an important condition required for the firm’s optimization problem was overlooked. Once this condition is imposed, the market equilibrium derived in the original paper may fail to exist for certain parameter values. In particular, the existence of interior hierarchical equilibrium is conditional on managerial productivity exceeding organizational costs, and disappears when demand is sufficiently weak, in the sense that no admissible interior super-manager equilibrium exists</div><div>We derive the corrected equilibrium system and provide numerical illustrations showing that sufficiently weak demand can eliminate any admissible interior super-manager equilibrium. Our results not only clarify the conditions under which the equilibrium of the super manager model is well defined, but also provide economic interpretations when no admissible interior super-manager equilibrium exists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113098"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Paying for parity: Incentivizing men in feminized occupations 为平等买单：在女性化的职业中激励男性
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113089
Lucía Cobreros, Carlos Sunyer, Judit Vall Castelló
{"title":"Paying for parity: Incentivizing men in feminized occupations","authors":"Lucía Cobreros,&nbsp;Carlos Sunyer,&nbsp;Judit Vall Castelló","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We find that gender-neutral financial incentives increased the share of male General Practice (GP) residents by 30% in Catalonia, Spain. Exploiting a salary supplement policy for GP residents and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate an increase of 8.3 percentage points, with effects concentrated in areas receiving larger wage increases. We also document suggestive evidence of lower GP vacancy rates in treated regions after the policy, although this pattern cannot be interpreted causally. To our knowledge, these results provide the first causal evidence that gender-neutral financial incentives can attract men into a highly feminized occupation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113089"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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