美国的极端天气和移民

IF 2.1 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112353

David Beheshti , Nir Eilam

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去的几十年里，极端天气变得更加频繁和强烈。鉴于美国人口在历史上一直是高度流动的，极端天气的直接和间接影响可能会促使人们迁移。我们利用1960年（1950-2010）中国县域气温和降水的时空变化进行了实证检验。非参数估计在温度和净迁移之间产生倒u型关系，其中平均温度更极端的几十年与较低的净迁移有关。这种影响在最极端的平均温度下最为强烈。我们还发现极端降水与较低的净迁移有关。这些反应是由年轻人推动的，并不是农业依赖型县所独有的。这些结果很重要，因为移民可以减轻发达国家气候变化的有害影响。

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Extreme weather and migration in the United States

Extreme weather has become more frequent and intense over the past few decades. Given that the United States population has been historically highly mobile, direct and indirect effects of extreme weather could catalyze people to migrate. We test this empirically by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation at the county level over 6 decades (1950–2010). A non-parametric estimation yields an inverted U-shape relationship between temperature and net-migration, where decades in which the average temperature was more extreme are associated with lower net-migration. The effects are strongest for the most extreme average temperatures. We also find that extreme precipitation is associated with lower net-migration. These responses are driven by younger adults, and are not unique to agriculturally-dependent counties. These results are important as migration could mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change in the developed world.

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来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.