Earth Surface Processes and Landforms最新文献

{"title":"Coral reef and mangrove interplay during Holocene sea level changes, Belitung Island, Indonesia","authors":"Tubagus Solihuddin,&nbsp;Gino de Gelder,&nbsp;Dwi Amanda Utami,&nbsp;Frida Sidik,&nbsp;Rima Rachmayani,&nbsp;Marfasran Hendrizan,&nbsp;Sri Yudawati Cahyarini,&nbsp;Meggi Rhomadona Purnama,&nbsp;Dilruba Erkan,&nbsp;Millary Widiawaty,&nbsp;Mary Elliot,&nbsp;Laurent Husson","doi":"10.1002/esp.70354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70354","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coral reefs and mangrove forests are susceptible coastal ecosystems, particularly in light of intense human-induced pressures, including the anticipated sea level rise in the 21st century. Here, we explore the chronology and interconnectedness between coral reefs and mangroves in response to Holocene sea level changes, taking Belitung Island, Indonesia, as a case study. We described the regressive stratigraphy of an outcrop in a drained tin mine and collected a series of 3-m-long cores from three study sites, which suggests that the nearshore reef establishment was taking place at ∼2-m elevation below the present mean sea level by approximately ∼6.1–5.7 kyr BP. After a phase of vertical reef accretion until ca. 4.3–3.8 kyr BP, the reef system—from the forereef to onshore beaches—changed to a horizontally prograding system under conditions of relative sea level fall. The shoreline accordingly prograded seaward, leaving kilometre-wide platforms constructed by the antecedent mid-Holocene coral reefs, thereby providing accommodation space for terrestrial sediment deposition and mangrove forests that thrived from the Late Holocene onwards. The case study of Belitung Island allows us to derive general behaviour laws based on the deterministic role of geological history in the development of coastal ecosystems. By shedding light on the complex connection between coral reefs, mangroves and sea level changes over geological timescales, these results outline the need to analyse the past evolution of mangrove forests and coral reefs as a unique system to predict their future evolution.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70354","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148467393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"‘A flash in the pan’ or a more enduring contribution? A retrospective on Micha Klein's (1976) ‘Hydrograph peakedness and basin area’, Earth Surface Processes, vol. 1: 27–30","authors":"Jayesh Mukherjee,&nbsp;Stephen Tooth,&nbsp;Manudeo Singh,&nbsp;Hywel M. Griffiths","doi":"10.1002/esp.70355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70355","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Klein's 1976 article proposed the hydrograph ‘peakedness index’ (PI), calculated as mean flow as a percentage of highest flow in a drainage basin. In this retrospective, we (1) outline the key findings regarding PI, (2) assess the relevance of PI for fluvial studies today and (3) consider whether PI may provide a useful metric for fluvial studies in future. Using gauging data from three humid area basins (Scotland, Yorkshire, Ohio River basin), Klein's analysis indicated a ‘break point’ in PI at a basin area of ~300 km². A division between smaller, ‘peaky’ basins and larger, ‘less peaky’ basins was attributed to the changing relative contributions to channel runoff from rapid overland flow in headwaters and slower subsurface flow farther downbasin. Re-examination using several decades of UK discharge data suggests a more complex picture, although for stations on the River Severn, peakedness is increasing in upstream reaches but decreasing downstream. Temporal trends in PI are likely driven by compounding or counteracting changes to climate (e.g. intense rainfall) and land use/land cover (e.g. urbanisation, damming). Analyses of PI for other basins worldwide could form part of wider efforts to assess the potential for rapid onset, highly peaked floods (flash floods), which are among the world's most destructive hazards.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148466962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stress redistribution following landslides: Insights from 3D stress modelling of mountain topography","authors":"Viktor Haunsperger,&nbsp;Jörg Robl,&nbsp;Anne-Laure Argentin,&nbsp;Stefan Hergarten,&nbsp;Martin Mergili,&nbsp;Andreas Schröder","doi":"10.1002/esp.70358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70358","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Steep mountainous landscapes are subject to persistent gravitational stresses strongly linked to mountain relief. The extent and spatial distribution of these stresses, and their redistribution as a result of topographic unloading with ongoing landslide activity, remain poorly quantified. Assessing the propagation of stresses during landslide-driven mountain range decay is fundamental for characterizing their current mechanical state, providing insights into both long-term landform evolution and the identification of potentially unstable rock masses near their failure limit. To address this, we couple a probabilistic rockfall model (mimicking cumulative decay) with high-resolution 3D stress simulations using the Finite Cell Method. Sequential removal of unstable material generated a series of digital elevation models representing progressive topographic unloading, for which full stress tensors and displacements were calculated throughout the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>10</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <mtext>km</mtext>\u0000 <mo>×</mo>\u0000 <mn>10</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <mtext>km</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ 10kern0.1em mathrm{km}times 10kern0.1em mathrm{km} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> mountain massif of the Hochkönig region (Northern Calcareous Alps). The simulations produced <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ sim $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 1.8 km³ of cumulative mass loss and up to 500 m of surface lowering. Maximum near-surface shear stresses decreased significantly, from initial values of up to <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ sim $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 14 MPa to <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ sim $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 11 MPa. Concurrently, stress variability decreases, and horizontal displacement vectors converge towards the main scars, indicating coherent elastic relaxation of the surrounding rock mass. These results demonstrate that removal of excess relief can redistribute stresses in a way that promotes cascades of subsequent detachments and landslides in the short term. Over longer timescales, this process leads to the dissipation of localized driving stresses and the emergence of a mechanically more uniform and resilient landscape geometry.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70358","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148466961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decadal-scale variability and predictors of large wood storage in meandering rivers across Europe","authors":"Tomáš Galia,&nbsp;Borbála Hortobágyi,&nbsp;Katarina Pavlek,&nbsp;Miloš Rusnák","doi":"10.1002/esp.70350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70350","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Meandering rivers are globally prevalent fluvial systems, yet interannual variations in large wood (LW) storage within these environments remain poorly understood. While LW plays a critical role in enhancing ecosystem complexity, it can also exacerbate flood risk through downstream transport during high-flow events. This study investigates temporal variability in LW storage at the scale of individual meander bends over decadal timescales, utilizing four morphologically distinct European rivers—the Allier, Odra, Orljava and Topľa—that span a broad range of environmental and hydroclimatic settings. A total of 65 bends were analysed using a combination of field inventories, aerial imagery and hydrological data to identify predictors of interannual LW storage dynamics. Our results demonstrate that bend-scale patterns of LW storage, expressed by average volume, standard deviation and coefficient of variation, are primarily governed by river-specific controls, whereas local channel geometry, including channel width, sinuosity, radius of curvature, dimensionless geometric ratios (width-to-curvature and amplitude-to-width) and riparian vegetation expressed as the ratio of vegetated outer-bank length to thalweg length, exerts only a secondary and practically negligible influence on LW dynamics. Analyses of selected flow metrics revealed a largely stochastic influence on LW redistribution at the bend scale, suggesting that hydrological forcing alone is insufficient to explain observed patterns. The absence of consistent, generalizable predictors underscores the strong context dependency of LW dynamics in meandering river systems. These findings highlight the need for site-specific management strategies that account for geomorphic, hydrological and ecological variability to enhance LW retention and mitigate flood-related hazards. Critically, the study underscores that single-time LW inventories provide only limited insights into inherently dynamic systems, emphasizing the necessity of long-term monitoring to inform evidence-based river management and restoration efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70350","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148466943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Three-year post-fire soil erodibility and erosion dynamics in a Mediterranean microbasin","authors":"Tümay Kadakci Koca,&nbsp;Caglar Bayik,&nbsp;Saygin Abdikan,&nbsp;Murat Gül","doi":"10.1002/esp.70362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70362","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Post-fire erosion in Mediterranean environments often persists beyond the first year after burning, yet most assessments focus on short-term responses. This study examines how soil erodibility changes over three post-fire years in a limestone-dominated microbasin in southwestern Türkiye. It evaluates whether widely used empirical soil erodibility (K-factor) equations can represent medium-term post-fire erodibility and how satellite-based surface deformation measurements can assist their interpretation. Soil properties were measured repeatedly across burn severity (BS) classes, slope aspects and slope positions and analysed together with BS indices and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series analysis. Unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and shear strength showed strong relationships with K-factors, indicating that these parameters are closely linked to post-fire erodibility changes. InSAR-derived negative vertical displacement rates, interpreted as a proxy for erosion-related surface deformation, increased by 45% in the first post-fire year, peaked at 48% in the second year and declined below pre-fire levels by the third year. These trends indicate delayed soil recovery relative to vegetation regrowth and a gradual reduction in the influence of BS on surface deformation. Among the compared K-factor equations, the equations of Wischmeier and Smith's equation most effectively captured short-term spatial differences between BS classes, whereas the equation of Auerswald et al.'s equation better represented interannual surface deformation trends. In addition, BS- and year-based K-factor multipliers were proposed to estimate the erodibility of burned soils from unburned reference soils. Overall, the results demonstrate that post-fire erodibility evolves over time rather than remaining static and that InSAR provides valuable complementary information for monitoring medium-term erosion dynamics in Mediterranean landscapes.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148466626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating physical and statistical models for regional rainfall-induced landslide hazard assessment","authors":"Keisuke Ono,&nbsp;Yiwei Wang,&nbsp;So Kazama,&nbsp;Yusuke Hiraga","doi":"10.1002/esp.70357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70357","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme rainfall is an important trigger of regional landslides and can affect human safety and infrastructure systems. Assessing landslide hazards under specific rainfall events therefore remains necessary. Statistical models provide strong predictive capability, whereas physically based models reflect the mechanical processes of slope stability; however, each approach has limitations when applied independently. This study proposes a hybrid framework that integrates statistical and physically based models for regional event-based landslide hazard mapping. Logistic regression was used to couple the outputs of a statistical model and a physically based slope stability analysis, establishing a quantitative relationship between probabilistic indicators and mechanical measures. The framework was calibrated using the July 2018 heavy rainfall event in Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan. Validation results indicate that the hybrid model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.761, compared with 0.694 for the statistical model and 0.660 for the physically based model. An additional temporal assessment using the 2014 rainfall event showed relatively stable discriminative performance under contrasting rainfall configurations. These findings suggest that linking mechanical stability calculations with probabilistic representation provides a possible implementation pathway for event-based landslide hazard assessment under similar rainfall conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70357","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148466599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling bedload transport at the network scale in a glacier-fed Alpine river system","authors":"Felix Pitscheider,&nbsp;Anne-Laure Argentin,&nbsp;Diane Doolaeghe,&nbsp;Mattia Gianini,&nbsp;Leona Repnik,&nbsp;Simone Bizzi,&nbsp;Stuart N. Lane,&nbsp;Francesco Comiti","doi":"10.1002/esp.70336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70336","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Predicting bedload fluxes in Alpine river systems is extremely challenging because of the complexity of sediment dynamics and the difficulty of quantifying bedload to support model development. Traditional methods to predict bedload rates and volumes rely on the calculation of bedload transport capacity at individual river sections, assuming unlimited sediment supply. This often leads to large overestimations of transported volumes and an inability to capture actual network-scale dynamics. To overcome these caveats, we have adapted the network-scale sediment transport model D-CASCADE for application to steep, coarse-bedded mountain river systems. We introduced different approaches to estimate flow hydraulics and sediment transport capacity. We evaluated the model at a single cross-section using 6 years of continuous bedload measurements at the outlet of the Sulden/Solda River basin (Italian Alps). The model was run using two different assumed channel widths—mean-flow and bankfull—resulting in overestimation and underestimation of measured bedload, respectively. Despite this, the adapted model predicted annual bedload volumes at the catchment outlet within one order of magnitude of the measured values, consistently better than using the traditional approach. We then used the model to assess longitudinal connectivity, transport rates, sediment storage dynamics and bedload budgets along the whole Sulden river network, comparing model predictions qualitatively against the available information on channel dynamics for the same period. These comparisons highlight the model's ability to reproduce key geomorphic processes, supporting its value as a novel approach for estimating sediment fluxes in Alpine river systems. Data suggest that the adapted D-CASCADE model can provide realistic spatial and temporal patterns of sediment transport and storage, aligning well with observations across the network.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70336","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148462781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial patterns of sediment load in the Yarlung Tsangpo River: Transport-deposition in the middle reach and a ‘sediment factory’ in the lower","authors":"Juan Zhang,&nbsp;Jia Bao Shi,&nbsp;Hang Zha,&nbsp;Yutong Hou,&nbsp;Yudong Hao,&nbsp;Jiawei Su,&nbsp;Dan Wan,&nbsp;Fan Zhang,&nbsp;Xiaonan Shi","doi":"10.1002/esp.70345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70345","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The spatial distribution of suspended sediment load is a key indicator for watershed management by identifying primary sediment source areas and elucidating transport-deposition patterns. However, clarifying such spatial patterns in alpine regions is challenging due to strong sediment heterogeneity and sparse hydrological monitoring data. Here, we focus on the Yarlung Tsangpo River and apply a global sediment simulator model to estimate mean annual suspended sediment loads at 17 cross-sections along the mainstream and its tributaries. The model demonstrates good applicability in this region, with a high coefficient of determination (<i>R</i>² = 0.97) between predicted and observed values. The sediment load exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.31. A generally downstream increasing trend is observed, whereas the lower reach functions as a ‘sediment factory’ of the basin, contributing 92.9% of the sediment load (SL) at the basin outlet, with an average specific sediment yield (SSY) of 4495 t/km² and a local maximum of 18 629 t/km². In contrast, the middle reach contributes only 5.9% of the sediment load and exhibits a high modern deposition rate of 81 Mt/a, far exceeding the sediment export of 14.36 Mt/a. Transport and deposition zones alternate spatially, with deposition predominantly occurring at tributary confluences and upstream of riverbed knickpoints. These insights advance the understanding of sediment production and transport mechanisms in complex alpine river systems and support informed water resource development.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of glacier retreat, greening, and a changing sediment supply on debris flows in contrasting monsoon-dominated Himalayan climates","authors":"Varvara O. Bazilova,&nbsp;Jacob Hirschberg,&nbsp;Leon Duurkoop,&nbsp;Tjalling de Haas,&nbsp;Walter Immerzeel","doi":"10.1002/esp.70347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70347","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sediment transport in high mountain environments is affected by the interplay of hydro-meteorological dynamics, erosion processes, and climate-driven landscape change, such as glacier retreat and mountain greening. Mountain catchments in High Mountain Asia (HMA) are prone to debris flow hazard due to the steep terrain, intense monsoon precipitation, and rapid cryosphere degradation. Catchments susceptible to debris flow events have previously been classified as having either transport-limited or supply-limited sediment regimes. However, the contribution of glacier meltwater, precipitation extremes, changing vegetation cover, and sediment availability, on debris flow activity remains poorly quantified across environments in the region. Here, we modified the Sediment Cascade (SedCas) model to simulate water balance components and subsequent sediment transport and debris flow events of a conceptual debris-flow catchment in two monsoon-dominated regions of the Central Himalaya: Langtang (humid, monsoon-dominated) and Mustang (semi-arid, rain-shadow), Nepal. We consider a total of 55 scenarios reflecting transitions from glaciated to vegetated terrain and a set of sediment supply scenarios and intra-annual erosion patterns. Our results show that glacier melt more strongly affects runoff and debris flow magnitude in drier, continental climate, while increases in vegetation and a reduction in glacier cover substantially decrease potential sediment supply and shift debris flow events to later in the monsoon season. The number of annual debris flow events remains relatively stable across scenarios, but their magnitude and seasonality are altered by both sediment recharge (i.e., sediment supply recovery) timing and land cover evolution. The modeling experiments show that as the landscape changes (through glacier retreat and vegetation succession), transport-limited and supply-limited conditions become more similar, suggesting that future debris flows may become smaller. These findings highlight the importance of hydro-geomorphic feedbacks under rapid environmental change to understand sediment-related hazards in high-relief Asian mountain regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70347","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Holistic analysis of shoreline change and mudbank dynamics across the Guiana coastline","authors":"Martin S. J. Rogers,&nbsp;Tom Spencer","doi":"10.1002/esp.70351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70351","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Guiana coastline, stretching for 1500 km between the Amazon and Orinoco Rivers in South America, is one of the most dynamic shorelines in the world. The shoreline is characterised by alongshore migratory, shore-attached mudbanks, with shoreline accretion and mangrove colonisation during in-bank periods, followed by significant shoreline erosion during interbank phases. While considerable research has been undertaken along the Guiana coastline, not all analyses have used sufficiently long temporal sequences of imagery to track at least one complete accretion–erosion cycle and analysis has often been limited to a localised region. To address these concerns, this paper provides the first ever analysis of shoreline change across the entire Guiana coastline annually over a 35-year period (1988–2023). Using the seaward extent of mangrove forest extracted from Landsat multispectral satellite imagery as a proxy for shoreline position, annual rates of shoreline change were measured at 200-m intervals along the 1500-km shoreline, providing new insights into the evolution of the entire shoreline system. This analysis identified nine mudbanks migrating alongshore at rates of between 0.26 and 1.38 km year⁻¹, lower than previously cited values of 0.9–5 km year⁻¹. These lower rates challenge the traditionally accepted 30-year oscillatory model for this coastline, instead suggesting a minimum 40-year minimum periodicity. Furthermore, and also contrary to previous research, this analysis identified no evidence of a cycle in shoreline accretion—erosion across two extensive regions of the Guiana coastline: Saramacca in Suriname and the entire coastline of Guyana. In these locations, other landforms affected shoreline position: naturally migrating headlands, emplaced polders and sites of rapid accretion along anthropogenically modified coastlines. Correlation analysis was conducted between shoreline change metrics, wave metrics and climate indices including the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. At the landform scale, significant wave height and direction had the strongest statistical relationship with shoreline change. These findings revise understanding of mudbank-driven shoreline dynamics and highlight the need for long-term observations for coastal monitoring and management.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70351","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}