Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal最新文献

{"title":"The Fiscal-Growth Nexus","authors":"António Afonso, J. Jalles","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2003087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2003087","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the fiscal-growth nexus with a large country panel, accounting for the usually encountered econometric pitfalls. Our results show that revenues have no significant impact on growth whereas expenditures have negative effects. The same is true for the OECD with the addition that government revenue has a negative impact on growth. Taxes on income are usually detrimental to growth, as well as public wages, interest payments, subsidies and government consumption have a negative effect on growth. Social spending is detrimental to growth; spending on education and health boosts growth; and there is weak evidence supporting causality running from expenditures and revenues to output and TFP.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124482507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"FX Basic Notions and Randomization","authors":"I. Gikhman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1971373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1971373","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper that is the second part of [1] we outlined basic of foreign exchange and its randomization. We presented a model of forward rate implied by stochastic bond prices. A particular attention is paid to a construction of the LIBOR rate. In our models we distinct stochastic pricing of a contract and its implied market price which is interpreted as market weighted estimate of the ‘fair’ price. This interpretation of the derivatives pricing was developed in [2].","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114295661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bond Market Co-Movements, Expected Inflation and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate","authors":"C. Macchiarelli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1965413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1965413","url":null,"abstract":"Since the end of the fixed rates in 1973 and after the EMS sterling dismissal in 1992, the value of the pound has undergone large cyclical fluctuations on average. Of particular interest to policy makers is the understanding of whether such movements are consistent with the lack or not of a correction mechanism to some long-run equilibrium. The purpose of the present study is to understand those dynamics, how the external value of the British sterling relative to the USD evolved during the recent floating experiences, and what have been the driving forces. In this paper we assume the real exchange rate to be determined by forces relating to the goods and capital market in a general equilibrium framework. This entails testing the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest parity together. Our findings have two important implications, both for monetary policy. First, we show that some of the observed changes in the real exchange rates can not be solely attributed to changes in inflation rates, but, possibly, also to investors’ behavior. Secondly, we show that the special US dollar status of World reserve currency results into a weaker behavior of the US bond rate on international markets.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129160661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monitoring Leverage","authors":"J. Geanakoplos, L. Pedersen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1967173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1967173","url":null,"abstract":"We discuss how leverage can be monitored for institutions, individuals, and assets. While traditionally the interest rate has been regarded as the important feature of a loan, we argue that leverage is sometimes even more important. Monitoring leverage provides information about how risk builds up during booms as leverage rises and how crises start when leverage on new loans sharply declines. Leverage data is also a crucial input for crisis management and lending facilities. Leverage at the asset level can be monitored by down payments or margin requirement or and haircuts, giving a model-free measure that can be observed directly, in contrast to other measures of systemic risk that require complex estimation. Asset leverage is a fundamental measure of systemic risk and so is important in itself, but it is also the building block out of which measures of institutional leverage and household leverage can be most accurately and informatively constructed.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116625016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Cycles Management Under Basel III","authors":"Adil Msatfa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1963644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1963644","url":null,"abstract":"The amplification of swings in economic cycles in recent decades has led to more instability in the financial system. This pushed for changes in prudential regulation and risk management practices in an attempt to reduce the pro-cyclicity of regulatory regimes.This paper examines the new requirements related to counter-cyclicicity in Basel III accord, addresses the difficulties that could be met in the implementation of the new constraints and looks at the impact that the new framework could have on individual banks and the banking as a whole in terms of financial stability.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124432736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agency Management in a Time of Crisis","authors":"Muiris MacCarthaigh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2018253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2018253","url":null,"abstract":"Much of the analysis of agency proliferation has been framed in the context of the fragmentation of organizational structures brought about by New Public Management (NPM) and delegated forms of governance (Pollitt and Talbot 2004; Pollitt et al. 2004; Christensen and Laegreid 2007; Verhoest et al. 2010). Until recently, however, little attention has been devoted to the issues of agency termination and the process of ‘de-agencification’. These processes have emerged in importance as governments seek to achieve budgetary cutbacks through various austerity measures including the ‘rationalization’ of state structures. Following an examination of what is meant by an agency, the issue of agency termination is explored in this paper by unpacking the different forms through which agency terminations or ‘rationalizations’ are pursued. The paper then considers the issues arising from recent agency rationalizations, including the criteria proposed by governments and other organizations for retaining or terminating agencies, and the problems emerging in terms of agency management and control. In so doing, the paper also considers the hybrid forms of organization that emerge as a result of rationalization processes. The primary data will be provided by the Irish case and a time-series database of Irish state institutions between 1922 and 2011.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"49 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121005503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Market Economies","authors":"I. Gumus","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2011.00972.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2011.00972.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between exchange rate policy and sovereign risk premia in emerging market economies, considering both officially declared regimes and actual exchange rate behavior. The results show that countries that announce a fixed exchange rate regime face lower spreads than countries that announce a floating regime or intermediate flexibility. When the actual exchange rate behavior is considered, this relationship persists between intermediate flexibility and pegs but countries that allow their exchange rates to freely float do not face higher spreads. The difference between the results is due to the fact that many countries deviate from their declared exchange rate policy. The countries that announce a floating regime do not face higher spreads than pegs when they actually allow a high degree of flexibility as they announced. However, intermediate flexibility leads to higher spreads independently of whether this is the announced policy or the actual behavior.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131217332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Empirical Study of Patent Litigation Timing: Could a Patent Term Reduction Decimate Trolls Without Harming Innovators?","authors":"B. Love","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1917709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1917709","url":null,"abstract":"This article reports the findings of an empirical analysis of the relative ages of patents litigated by practicing and non-practicing patentees. Studying all infringement claims brought to enforce a sample of recently expired patents, I find considerable variance. Product-producing companies predominately enforce their patents soon after issuance and complete their enforcement activities well before their patent rights expire. NPEs, by contrast, begin asserting their patents relatively late in the patent term and frequently continue to litigate to the verge of expiration. This variance in litigation timing is so dramatic that all claims asserting the average product-company patent are resolved before the average NPE patent is asserted for the first time. Further, I find that NPEs are the dominant source of patent enforcement in the final few years of the patent term. NPEs, enforcers of just twenty percent of all studied patents, are responsible for more than two-thirds of all suits and over eighty percent of all infringement claims litigated in the final three years of the patent term. These findings cast serious doubt on the utility of the last few years of the patent term and suggest that Congress should, at a minimum, consider increasing the frequency and magnitude of maintenance fee payments in the latter half of the patent term.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"26 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120985177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Comparison of Screening Mechanisms for Identifying Potentially Anticompetitive Accountable Care Organizations","authors":"Gregory J. Pelnar","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1898746","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1898746","url":null,"abstract":"The FTC and DOJ’s Proposed Statement of Antitrust Enforcement Policy Regarding Accountable Care Organizations Participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program explains how the antitrust agencies will screen accountable care organizations (ACOs) to identify ones that are potentially anticompetitive and therefore require further review. In contrast to the antitrust screens the agencies have set forth in earlier Statements or Guidelines which are based on market shares in relevant markets, the Proposed Statement introduces a screen based on market shares in Primary Service Areas (PSAs). By examining several numerical examples, the proposed ACO screen is compared to some alternatives, including the review thresholds set forth in the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines. The results indicate that the proposed ACO screen produces results qualitatively similar to other screens in some instances, but can be more stringent or more lax in others. It is therefore at best premature to conclude that PSAs are a useful tool for screening out potentially anticompetitive ACOs.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122220038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Empirical Proposal on Power, Knowledge and Truth of Correlations among the Minimum Wage, Foreign Direct Investment in the Industrial Sector and Export","authors":"K. Jermsittiparsert, Thanaporn Sriyakul, Chayongkan Pamornmast","doi":"10.24191/SMRJ.V9I1.5210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24191/SMRJ.V9I1.5210","url":null,"abstract":"การวจยครงน มวตถประสงคเพอชใหเหนถง ความสมพนธระหวาง อตราคาจางขนตำ การลงทนโดยตรงจากตางประเทศในภาคอตสาหกรรม และการสงออก ซงกำลงถกวพากษวจารณอยางรนแรง โดยผมอำนาจหนาท จากทงภาครฐและภาคเอกชน นบตงแตการประกาศนโยบายประกนรายไดอตราคาจางขนตำของผใชแรงงานอยท 300 บาทตอวน ของพรรคเพอไทย ดวยวธวทยาเชงปรมาณขนสง โดยนำขอมลอนกรมเวลาของ อตราคาจางขนตำ การลงทนโดยตรงจากตางประเทศในภาคอตสาหกรรม และการสงออก มาวเคราะหดวยสถตขนสง การวเคราะหถดถอย การทดสอบความสมพนธเชงดลยภาพในระยะยาวดวยวธของโจฮานเซน และการทดสอบความเปนเหตเปนผลรายคดวยวธของแกรนเจอรผลการวเคราะหดวยการวเคราะหถดถอย พบวา อตราคาจางขนตำมความสมพนธในทศทางเดยวกน ทงกบการลงทนโดยตรงจากตางประเทศในภาคอตสาหกรรม และการสงออก ขณะทการทดสอบความสมพนธเชงดลยภาพในระยะยาวดวยวธของโจฮานเซน อตราคาจางขนตำ กลบไมมความสมพนธกบการลงทนโดยตรงจากตางประเทศในภาคอตสาหกรรม แตมความสมพนธกบการสงออก ในลกษณะเปนเหตเปนผลซงกนและกน ตามผลการทดสอบความเปนเหตเปนผลรายคดวยวธของแกรนเจอรชใหเหนวา การกลาวอางวาการขนของอตราคาจางขนตำจะกระทบตอความสามารถในการแขงขนของประเทศ ดานการลงทนโดยตรงจากตางประเทศในภาคอตสาหกรรม และการสงออก ภายใตสถานะของผมอำนาจหนาท และยดกมการประกอบสรางความร รวมถงความจรงครอบงำสงคม นจงอาจมใชการบกพรองโดยสจรต แตเปนความพยายามหนงของการตอสเชงวาทกรรม วาดวยความไมเปนธรรมทางเศรษฐกจ และการกดขทางชนชน อนเปนรากเหงาของปญหาเชงโครงสรางทสำคญของประเทศไทยThis research has an objective to demonstrate the correlations among the minimum wage, foreign direct investment in the industrial sector, and export, which has been criticized severely by the authorities from both the public and private sectors, since the Pua Thai Party’s policy announcement on the guarantee of labors’ minimum wage at 300 baht per day. The research employs an advanced quantitative methodology, analyzing time-series data of the minimum wage, foreign direct investment in the industrial sector, and export by advanced statistical methods, regression, the Johansen Cointegration Test, and the Pairwise Granger Causality Test.The regression analysis reveals that the minimum wage correlates in the same direction with both foreign direct investment in the industrial sector and export, whereas when applied the Johansen Cointegration Test, the minimum wage has no cointegration with foreign direct investment but has a causal relationship with export according to the Pairwise Granger Causality Test.This indicates that the claim that the minimum wage increase will affect the competiveness of the country with regard to foreign direct investment in the industrial sector and export, has been reinforced by the authorities using their superior status to dominate the process of building a body of knowledge as well as to distort the truth so as to possess a control over the society. This is thus not a good-faith mistake but an effort of discourse fights on the economic unfairness and social-class discrimination, which is the root of Thailand’s important structural problems.The English Version of this article can be found at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2193918","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"2013 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114676150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}