Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal最新文献

{"title":"A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change","authors":"Chang‐Jin Kim, J. Morley, Jeremy Piger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.761024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.761024","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change. Contrary to previous analysis based on classical point estimates, this approach provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. We apply the Bayesian counterfactual analysis to examine the sources of the volatility reduction in U.S. real GDP growth in the 1980s. Using a structural VAR model of output growth and the unemployment rate, we find strong statistical support for the idea that a counterfactual change in the size of structural shocks only, with no corresponding change in propagation, would have produced the same overall volatility reduction that actually occurred. Looking deeper, we find evidence that a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate supply shocks only would have generated a larger volatility reduction than a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate demand shocks only. We show that these results are consistent with a standard monetary VAR, for which counterfactual analysis also suggests the importance of shocks in generating the volatility reduction, but with the counterfactual change in monetary shocks only generating a small reduction in volatility","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"13 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120903438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anticipated Monetary Policy and the Dynamic Behaviour of the Term Structure of Interest Rates","authors":"Jarkko P. Jääskelä, J. Vilmunen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1021240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1021240","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the measurement of anticipated interest rate policy and the effects of these expectations on the term structure of nominal interest rates.It is shown that, under the expectations hypothesis, the level of long-term interest rates depends on three factors: the level of the monetary policy interest rate, ie the steering rate; the spread between the market interest rate and the steering rate; and market expectations of the next steering rate change.The theoretical model builds on the assumption that market participants have only imperfect knowledge of the mechanism whereby changes in the steering rate are determined.As a consequence, expectations formation, although realistic, need not be entirely rational.Steering rate changes take the form of discrete jumps and occur infrequently on a daily scale.Given these assumptions, discussion of the determination of the term structure is related to the literature on uncertainty about monetary policy regimes and small samples, ie \"peso\" problems. Empirical analysis based on Nelson-Siegel estimates of the daily yield curves in Finland in the period 1 January 1993 to 31 October 1997 complements the theoretical discussion.The observed differences between estimated market expectations and actual tender rate changes are quite large in the sample, particularly for the longer maturities.The approach applied in this study is promising, not only in the sense of potentially providing estimates of market expectations concerning future discrete changes in monetary policy interest rates but also in the sense of its apparent potential in accounting for the often reported poor empirical performance of the expectations hypothesis. Keywords: term structure of interest rates, expectations, target changes, peso problems","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114385902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergences in the Euro Area: A Cause for Concern?","authors":"Nils Bjorksten, M. Syrjänen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1021280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1021280","url":null,"abstract":"Evidence suggests that after a period of convergence in the early and mid 1990s, the euro area economies may have started diverging. As a consequence, the common monetary policy could become less well-suited for a number of countries.This paper studies the extent and severity of the recent divergences, and discusses the capacity of exposed countries to compensate for nationally suboptimal monetary conditions through other policy channels.As a step toward developing an analytical framework for monitoring intra-euro area developments, we present a \"convergence barometer\" to monitor divergences, and a Taylor rule based \"monetary thermometer\" to compare the common monetary policy to benchmark optimal policy for individual countries.A main conclusion is that policyrnakers at the euro area level should be concerned about divergences, since automatic stabilisers alone may not be enough to restore a healthy equilibrium to potential \"outlier\" countries.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124128336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Gold Standard: A Critique of Friedman, Mundell, Hayek, Greenspan from the Free Enterprise Perspective","authors":"W. Block","doi":"10.1108/03074359910765939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/03074359910765939","url":null,"abstract":"Argues that the gold standard is the only monetary regime consistent with the philosophy of free enterprise and assesses the contributions of Friedman, Mundell and Hayek to monetary theory as supporters of the free market but opponents of the gold standard. Critically reviews the basic ideas of each and notes that Greenspan, while apparently endorsing the gold standard, has not actually used his position as chairman of the US Federal Reserve System to move towards it. Lists some economists who support both free enterprise and the gold standard as a “vital aspect of political economy”.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114895391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Flat Tax for the Democrat","authors":"DiMarkco Stephen Chandler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1813045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1813045","url":null,"abstract":"\"The United States of America is not a Democracy.\" So says Gordon Phillips, founder of “Inform America” and National Representative for the Save-A-Patriot Fellowship. Mr. Phillips statement, whether true or false, typifies the frustration of many Americans during tax season. It further emphasizes the extreme ideas that American people are eager to embrace in order to combat the oppressive tactics of the Internal Revenue Service. As most of you know, the frustration of our current tax situation is not an isolated problem affecting a few. In fact, most Americans are simply fed up with the current system. In a poll taken, May 1995, Americans overwhelmingly believed that our current income-tax system should be replaced. When asks what should be done about the current income-tax system, seventy nine percent of those who responded said, “Replace it”, nineteen percent said, \"Adjust it\", and only two percent said leave it alone. Given the fact that this great nation of ours was born out of a tax revolt, how did we ever get into this precarious situation? Today I will try to provide a comprehensive grasp of our tax predicament as well as offer a solution that might curtail what some financial experts have called the coming tax revolt.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125940528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asian Monetary Integration in Recent Economic Debates","authors":"Fabio Masini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1582965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1582965","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, after the financial and currency crises that hit Asian economies at the end of last millennium and the foundation in Europe of the single currency, a renewed interest towards integration processes in Asia has grown (Whyplosz 2001). In the last four years a vivid scientific debate on such topic has taken place on the main international economic journals. Such debates are relevant to the theory of federalism for at least two reasons. First, in the theory and history of federalisation processes, monetary integration plays an important role as money is often considered a public good which has to be provided and safeguarded by a public institution representing a collective sovereignty and legitimated through democratic citizenship. Federalism is based on the struggle against the absoluteness and exclusiveness of national sovereignty and monetary integration provides an institutional economic tool to overcome exclusive national sovereignty and foster political integration. The second reason is that from a strategic point of view, active political federalism has always advocated the creation of continental groups of countries in order to better and more realistically struggle for greater democratic legitimacy in the world. Asian monetary integration may therefore represent a further step towards this scenario of a multi-polar geography of power worldwide. But the institutional approach, where the process is guided by political institutions to provide a collective public good is not the only approach to monetary integration. Integration has been (Vaubel 1984a; b) - and still is (Buchanan 2004) - considered also as a (more or less) spontaneous process whereby markets attempt to gain greater efficiency, through the decrease of transaction costs and policy costs associated with different currencies. In this case the institutional content of the integration process can be minimized (in some cases to zero, in others to a very broad constitutional arrangement). Three main questions have historically emerged in this field and are dealt in this work: a) how to cut the world in order to create optimum currency areas and, in the specific case we are examining, which countries to “invite” into a monetary integration process in Asia; b) what model of integration is most suitable for the selected countries and what institutions are required; c) how to manage the transition towards the target.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125799997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empirical Evaluation of Interest Barrier Effects","authors":"D. Dressler, Uwe Scheuering","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2112117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2112117","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically estimates the effects of a new thin-capitalization rule on the financing behavior of German corporations employing a fixed effects difference-in-difference approach. We compare treatment and control groups separated by a hypothetical application of the new rule in three years before its introduction. Our analysis does not provide empirical evidence for a pure interest barrier effect. This indicates that the few affected firms were either unable to reduce their leverage or used exceptions. The observable trend towards less debt might stem from a general preference for lower debt ratios after the crisis or from the tax rate cut, which was introduced simultaneously.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128053972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Failure of Public Finance","authors":"W. Block, William Kordsmeier, Joseph Horton","doi":"10.1007/978-1-4614-1287-8_14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-1287-8_14","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130471640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toxic Tape","authors":"Tony Eccles, Jules Goddard","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-8616.2012.00845.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8616.2012.00845.x","url":null,"abstract":"There is a clamour for more and more regulation of the financial services industry so as to avoid another economic meltdown. The goal is admirable, perhaps, but Tony Eccles and Jules Goddard say that too much regulating can create problems of its own — worse problems.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127985365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}