Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal最新文献

{"title":"The currency that came in from the cold: Capital controls and the information content of order flow","authors":"Francis Breedon, Thórarinn G. Pétursson, Paolo Vitale","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3907289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3907289","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse how capital controls affect FX microstructure, using as a case study the introduction and subsequent removal of controls in Iceland. We use a VAR of private order flow, Central Bank order flow and EURISK that allows for contemporaneous feedback effects to analyse the impact and information content of trades and find that controls have profound effects. When controls were introduced, volume plummeted, the information content of trading activity declined and became less responsive to macro news. While there was no recovery of trading volume after controls were abolished, the information content and responsiveness of trading activity increased sharply.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125701748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Study on Impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) on Cement Industry in India","authors":"B. Nayaka","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3834940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3834940","url":null,"abstract":"Cement industry plays a crucial role in the development of an economy. It contributes significantly to the GDP and generates employment. Growing population, increasing scale of economic activities, and growth in the real estate sector have led to a boom in Indian cement industry. Various infrastructural development initiatives of Central and State Government also stimulated demand for cement. Indian cement industry has enormous growth potential. It is attracting FDI through mergers and acquisitions. The synergic effect has resulted in technological advancements and production efficiency in cement industry. Despite of having huge growth potential, the growth of cement industry in India is not satisfactory due to various economic and other policy implications. A high rate of GST is one of the most important factor hindering the growth of cement industry. Cement is placed in the 28% tax slab of GST in India, which is higher than the other developing and developed countries. As individuals use more than 65 percent of cement for housing constuctions, a higher tax rate on cement will adversely affect the marginal sections of the society. Non-availability of Input tax credit (ITC) in construction and real estate sector also a negative impact on the growth of and real estate and cement Industry. GST being a consumption-based tax, the entire tax burden is on end-users. Considering all the factors an attempt is made in this study to analyze the impact of GST on the Cement Industry. It is found that growth in production, consumption, sales and FDI inflows is not satisfactory in Indian cement industry after GST implementation.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129660549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Banking structural reforms and top income shares: regulate or deregulate?","authors":"Carola Casti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3738035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3738035","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates if, and to what extent, banking structural reforms and the process of privatization may affect the top income shares over time. We focus on the case of Canada and Italy, which both undertook a major change within their banking sector in the early 1990s. Their banking reforms had the aim to privatize the banking sector and reintroduce the 'quasi universal banking model'. The evaluation of these policy packages is undertaken by implementing a data-driven approach, the `Synthetic Control Methodology'. Findings point out a substantial increase of the top income shares in the period post-deregulation.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115512544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tax Evasion and Money Laundering: A Complete Framework","authors":"D. Kemsley, Sean A. Kemsley, F. T. Morgan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3701758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3701758","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to define the fundamental nexus between income tax evasion and money laundering. The G7 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) designates tax evasion as a predicate offense for money laundering. We determine whether this designation is complete from a conceptual standpoint, or whether there is a stronger connection between tax evasion and money laundering.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper applies the FATF definition for money laundering – as well as generally accepted definitions for tax evasion and for a standard predicate offense – to identify the necessary conditions for each crime. This paper then uses these conditions to test opposing hypotheses regarding the nexus between tax evasion and money laundering.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper demonstrates that tax evasion does not meet the conditions for a standard predicate offense, and treating it as if it were a standard predicate could be problematic in practice. Instead, it is concluded that the FATF’s predicate label for tax evasion, together with tax evasion methods and objectives, imply that all tax evasion constitutes money laundering. In a single process, tax evasion generates both criminal tax savings and launders those criminal proceeds by concealing or disguising their unlawful origin.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The FATF could strengthen its framework by explicitly defining all tax evasion as money laundering. This would enable regulatory agencies to draw upon the full combined resources dedicated to either offense.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The analysis demonstrates that tax evasion completely incorporates money laundering as currently defined by the FATF.\u0000","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132126513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Uncertainty and Accounting Quality","authors":"Sadok El Ghoul, O. Guedhami, Yongtae Kim, H. Yoon","doi":"10.2308/tar-2018-0057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2308/tar-2018-0057","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from 19 countries over the 1990–2015 period, we examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects accounting quality. We find that accounting quality, measured based on Nikolaev’s (2018) model, increases during periods of high policy uncertainty. This relation is confirmed by the negative association between EPU and performance-adjusted discretionary accruals in a multivariate setting, and it extends to various alternative measures of earnings properties. We also find that the positive relation between EPU and accounting quality is more pronounced for government-dependent firms and firms with higher political risk. Additional analyses based on institutional investors’ trading behavior, media freedom, and press circulation suggest that market participants’ attention is a mechanism through which EPU affects accounting quality. Further, we find evidence that high accounting quality can mitigate the negative effects of EPU on corporate investment and valuation.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122864440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La Politique Monétaire S’ajuste aux Effets Adverse du COVID-19 (Monetary Policy Adjusts to the Fallout From COVID-19)","authors":"H. Kouam","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3588263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3588263","url":null,"abstract":"<b>French Abstract:</b> Les banques centrales du monde entier ont pris des mesures sans précédent pour limiter les retombées négatives de COVID-19 sur les conditions financières, les entreprises et les indicateurs économiques. Les économies avancées ont réduit leurs taux directeurs ex. La BCE qui s'est engagée dans des achats d'actifs à grande échelle avec des mécanismes de financement COVID-19 conçus pour atténuer les retombées sur les entreprises financièrement éprouvées. Néanmoins, la politique budgétaire devrait être conçue pour faciliter la transmission de la politique monétaire et soutenir une reprise économique grâce à des subventions salariales ciblées et à des exonérations fiscales. <br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> Central banks have taken unprecedented steps to limit the fallout from COVID-19 on financial conditions, the corporate sector, and economic indicators. Advanced economies lowered their key policy rates with the exception of the ECB, who instead expanded its asset purchase program with an additional COVID-19 financing scheme. Nevertheless, fiscal policy should be designed in a manner consistent with a faster pass-through of monetary policy, whilst supporting an economic recovery via wage subsidies and suspensions of social security contributions.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129236935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Primitive Barter to Inflationary Dollar: A Warless Economic Weapon of Mass Destruction","authors":"John Taskinsoy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3542145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542145","url":null,"abstract":"Trade among people dates back to prehistoric times; before invention of money, a primitive system of exchange called barter existed. Barter has reemerged as an alternative to the dollar, attributable to high-magnitude financial crises such as the 2006 mortgage debacle and the ensuing global credit crisis (2008). It has been observed that bartering is more frequently used in malignant economic times than in benign economic times. The advantage of barter is that it does not revolve around expanding or contracting the aggregate money supply via credit, therefore people do not end up with massive debt hangover. The evolution of American imperialism and the dollar’s hegemony are closely interlinked. History has witnessed that imperialism was in America’s DNA even before its birth when European settlers arrived in the new world and began killing American Indians to gain land; at that moment, the seeds of an imperial nation were planted and flourished with more blood. President Trump and some branches of the US government feel agitated that there is a situation of diminishing U.S. power (and dollar). Anonymity of Bitcoin (pseudoanonymous) and the upcoming Libra is exactly one of these ire situations; just to protect the dollar’s hegemony, the Trump administration chooses to brutally attack cryptocurrencies as Trump said “one real currency in the USA�?. But regulators must be real careful because running headlong into backlash to Libra just to punish Facebook due to its tarnished reputation of past privacy abuse and exploitation of users’ data (i.e. Cambridge Analytica) could adversely affect any potential future innovation, and in the process, harm consumers. Like any life-changing event or invention, Bitcoin and Libra (i.e. cryptocurrencies) will continue to forge ahead unabated regardless of ongoing efforts by doubters, pessimists, doomsayers, skeptics, disbelievers, and short-sighted/blindfolded politicians who are very much eager to put another nail in the coffin. One wonders, when will it end? How many more lives must be perished and the world’s resources must be exploited to serve the U.S. to keep enjoying its “exorbitant privilege�? of dollar hegemony?","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"126 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132053978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Case for Noncompetes","authors":"Jonathan M. Barnett, Ted Sichelman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3516397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3516397","url":null,"abstract":"Scholars and other commentators widely assert that enforcement of contractual and other limitations on labor mobility deters innovation. Based on this view, federal and state legislators have taken, and continue to consider, actions to limit the enforcement of covenants not-to-compete in employment agreements. These actions would discard the centuries-old reasonableness standard that governs the enforcement of these provisions, often termed “noncompetes,” in all but four states (notably, California). We argue that this zero-enforcement position lacks a sound basis in theory or empirics. As a matter of theory, it overlooks the complex effects of contractual limitations on labor mobility in innovation markets. While it is frequently asserted that noncompetes may impede knowledge spillovers that foster innovation, it is frequently overlooked that noncompetes may encourage firms to invest in cultivating intellectual and human capital. As a matter of empirics, we show that two commonly referenced bodies of evidence fail to support zero enforcement. First, we revisit the conventional account of the rise of Silicon Valley and the purported fall of the Boston area as innovation centers, showing that this divergence cannot suitably be explained by differences in state law regarding noncompetes. Second, we show that widely cited empirical studies fail to support a causal relationship between noncompetes, reduced labor mobility, and reduced innovation. Given these theoretical and empirical complexities, we propose an error-cost approach that provides an economic rationale for the common law’s reasonableness approach toward contractual constraints on the circulation of human capital.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"334 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134174325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Facebook’s Libra: Why Does US Government Fear Price Stable Cryptocurrency?","authors":"John Taskinsoy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3482441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3482441","url":null,"abstract":"US President Donald J. Trump says he is not “a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies”, and he does not have to be, but using this premature reason (like a bully) to rage a war against Bitcoin and Libra is ludicrous. Will Trump (or the United States government) try to destroy everything that he dislikes or is not a fan of? Satoshi Nakamoto (pseudonym) designed Bitcoin as public good in mind, but the US dollar serves totally the opposite as it has been increasingly used as a weapon of mass economic destruction. The real issue is, President Trump feels agitated and concerned because Bitcoin and Libra create an undesired situation of diminishing US power. The anonymity aspect of Bitcoin limits Trump’s (the US government’s) role as the global policeman (i.e. succeeded the UK in 1945). Just to curb Bitcoin’s popularity, politicians produce lies, make short-sighted assertions, and publicly share ill-advised thoughts; regardless, Bitcoin mania is nothing like the tulip mania or the dot.com mania, it is with us now and it will continue to forge ahead unabated in spite of doubters, pessimists, doomsayers, skeptics, and disbelievers. At the backdrop of US-China trade war and the regulatory backlash to force Facebook to halt its Libra project, one is compelled to wonder till when the United States will exploit the world’s scarce resources and how many more lives will be perished for petrodollar so that the U.S. can continue enjoying the “exorbitant privilege” of dollar hegemony.","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"250 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121883243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physical Macroeconomics: Part I - Basic Concepts","authors":"V. Bartenev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3446722","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3446722","url":null,"abstract":"This article is the leading one in a series of articles describing the results of 15 years of independent research by the author. This series presents the updated and expanded results of these studies, which were previously presented in the book “Natural Science Foundations of Macroeconomics: The Global Economy as a Living System” (Faculty Management Press, Warsaw 2018).","PeriodicalId":104767,"journal":{"name":"Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130304050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}