Climatic Change最新文献

{"title":"Global warming determines future increase in compound dry and hot days within wheat growing seasons worldwide","authors":"Yan He, Yanxia Zhao, Shao Sun, Jiayi Fang, Yi Zhang, Qing Sun, Li Liu, Yihong Duan, Xiaokang Hu, Peijun Shi","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03718-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03718-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound dry and hot extremes are proved to be the most damaging climatic stressor to wheat thereby with grave implications for food security, thus it is critical to systematically reveal their changes under unabated global warming. In this study, we comprehensively investigate the global change in compound dry and hot days (CDHD) within dynamic wheat growing seasons during 2015–2100 under 4 socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) based on the latest downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Our results demonstrate a notable increase in CDHD’s frequency (<span>({CDHD}_{f})</span>) and severity (<span>({CDHD}_{s})</span>) worldwide under all SSPs, such increase is sharper over southern Asia in winter wheat growing season, and southern Canada, northern America, Ukraine, Turkey and northern Kazakhstan in spring wheat growing season. As the top 10 wheat producer, India and America will suffer much more detrimental CDHD in their wheat growing season. Adopting a low forcing pathway will mitigate CDHD risks in up to 93.3% of wheat areas. Positive dependence between droughts and heats in wheat growing season is found over more than 74.2% of wheat areas, which will effectively promote the frequency and severity of CDHD. Global warming will dominate the increase of CDHD directly by increasing hot days and indirectly by enhancing potential evapotranspiration thereby aggravating droughts. This study helps to optimize adaptation strategies for mitigating CDHD risks on wheat production, and provides new insights and analysis paradigm for investigating future variations in compound extremes occurring within dynamic crops growing seasons.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140567330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to topical collection: social science and sustainability technology","authors":"Leaf Van Boven, Matthew G. Burgess","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03727-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03727-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"2014 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140566985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-model ensemble of frost risks across East Asia (1850–2100)","authors":"Jenny Richards, Peter Brimblecombe","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03723-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03723-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Frost events can cause the deterioration of a wide range of heritage materials, including stone, brick and earth. In a warming world, the frequency and location of frost events is likely to change, affecting the conservation strategies required at heritage sites. We use a multi-model ensemble approach to investigate three types of frost events in East Asia: freeze–thaw cycles; deep frost days and wet frosts. The study uses nine CMIP6 models for the period 1850 to 2100, with future projections run under the SPS585 scenario. Additional analysis is undertaken for five specific 2° ✕ 2° areas located across East Asia. The three frost event parameters are spatially and temporally distinct. A decrease in all three frost parameters is found in Japan, South Korea and East China, with some areas projected to have no frost events by the end of the twenty-first century. However, Northwest China is distinctive as wet frosts are projected to increase over the twenty-first century, while on the Tibetan plateau of Southwest China, freeze–thaw cycles are projected to increase. This suggests that except in some localised regions, heritage managers can focus on risks other than frost weathering in developing plans to address climate change.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Graphical Abstract</h3>\u0000","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140566982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Preparing Colombian coffee production for climate change: Integrated spatial modelling to identify potential robusta coffee (Coffea canephora P.) growing areas","authors":"Carlos E. González-Orozco, Mario Porcel, Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy, Eric Rahn, William A. Cardona, Diego A. Salinas Velandia, Gustavo A. Araujo-Carrillo, Jarrod Kath","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03717-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03717-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Meeting future demand for coffee under climate change is a challenge. Approaches that can inform where coffee may grow best under current and future climate scenarios are needed. Robusta coffee (<i>Coffea canephora</i> P.) is planted in many tropical areas and makes up around 40% of the world’s coffee supply. However, as the climate shifts, current robusta areas may become less productive, while in other areas new growing regions for robusta may emerge. Colombia is one of the world’s most important Arabica coffee producer, famous for its high-quality coffee. Although robusta coffee is not yet a commercial crop in Colombia, it could be one of the future bastions for robusta coffee in South America contributing to meeting the increasing demand, but this remains unexplored. We aimed to identify areas with highest biophysical and socio-economic potential to grow robusta coffee in Colombia. An integrated modelling approach was used, combining climate suitability and crop-yield modelling for current and future climate scenarios, soil constraints, pest risk assessment and socio-economic constraints to identify the regions with the highest potential productivity and the lowest pest and climate change risks with good market access and low security risks which don’t further expand the agricultural frontier. Our results showed that parts of the foothills along the eastern Andean Mountain ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region and the wet parts of the Caribbean region are the best candidates for the potential development of robusta coffee plantations in Colombia. The crop-yield model indicated highest yields of green coffee on the foothills of the eastern Andean Mountain range with an estimated average yield of 2.6 t ha⁻¹ (under rain-fed conditions) which is projected to occur at elevations below 600 m avoiding interference with the traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under a 2 °C global warming scenario climate change is projected to have the largest impacts on the Caribbean region. Therefore, larger scale irrigated production system could be an appropriate option in the Caribbean region, while diversified smallholder robusta coffee agroforestry systems are considered more favourable in the Orinoquía region.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140566986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Underestimations of the income-based ecological footprint inequality","authors":"Bernardo Andretti, Yan Vieites, Guilherme A. Ramos, Larissa Elmor, Eduardo B. Andrade","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03719-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03719-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Previous research has demonstrated that the wealthy harm the environment to a much greater extent than those with lesser means. According to recent estimates, the wealthiest 1% of the world’s population emit 50% more CO2 than the bottom half of the income distribution. The reason for this inequality is clear: affluence boosts consumption, which in turn increases the ecological footprint. Although the phenomenon seems intuitive, little is known as to whether the layperson notices it. The current study assesses the extent to which individuals recognize or fail to notice such massive ecological footprint inequality and why misperceptions may arise. Across four preregistered studies (N = 1,188) conducted in a highly unequal socio-economic environment (Brazil), we show that people often fail to accurately perceive the meaningful ecological footprint inequality that surrounds them. These misperceptions are explained by people’s (a) failure to properly incorporate the impact of income-based differences in consumption in their ecological footprint assessments and (b) tendency to associate wealth with superior environmental education, greater resources to act sustainably, and better local infrastructure (e.g., cleaner paved streets and proper waste collection). Emphasizing the lack of infrastructure in deprived neighborhoods further exacerbates the misperceptions, whereas highlighting key differences in consumption habits across the socio-economic spectrum increases accuracy. This research, thus, identifies the factors that magnify existing misperceptions in ecological footprint inequality and provides avenues for policymakers to reduce such mistakes.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"252 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140567012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public opinion about solar radiation management: A cross-cultural study in 20 countries around the world","authors":"Nadja Contzen, Goda Perlaviciute, Linda Steg, Sophie Charlotte Reckels, Susana Alves, David Bidwell, Gisela Böhm, Marino Bonaiuto, Li-Fang Chou, Victor Corral-Verdugo, Federica Dessi, Thomas Dietz, Rouven Doran, Maria do Carmo Eulálio, Kelly Fielding, Cristina Gómez-Román, Juliana V. Granskaya, Tatyana Gurikova, Bernardo Hernández, Maira P. Kabakova, Chieh-Yu Lee, Fan Li, Maria Luísa Lima, Lu Liu, Sílvia Luís, Gabriel Muinos, Charles A. Ogunbode, María Victoria Ortiz, Nick Pidgeon, Maria Argüello Pitt, Leila Rahimi, Anastasia Revokatova, Cecilia Reyna, Geertje Schuitema, Rachael Shwom, Nur Soylu Yalcinkaya, Elspeth Spence, Bernadette Sütterlin","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03708-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03708-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Some argue that complementing climate change mitigation measures with solar radiation management (SRM) might prove a last resort to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. To make a socially responsible decision on whether to use SRM, it is important to consider also public opinion, across the globe and particularly in the Global South, which would face the greatest risks from both global warming and SRM. However, most research on public opinion about SRM stems from the Global North. We report findings from the first large-scale, cross-cultural study on the public opinion about SRM among the general public (<i>N</i> = 2,248) and students (<i>N</i> = 4,583) in 20 countries covering all inhabited continents, including five countries from the Global South and five ‘non-WEIRD’ (i.e. not Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich, and Democratic) countries from the Global North. As public awareness of SRM is usually low, we provided participants with information on SRM, including key arguments in favour of and against SRM that appear in the scientific debate. On average, acceptability of SRM was significantly higher in the Global South than in the ‘non-WEIRD’ Global North, while acceptability in the ‘WEIRD’ Global North was in between. However, we found substantial variation <i>within</i> these clusters, especially in the ‘non-WEIRD’ Global North, suggesting that countries do not form homogenous clusters and should thus be considered individually. Moreover, the average participants’ views, while generally neither strong nor polarised, differed from some expert views in important ways, including that participants perceived SRM as only slightly effective in limiting global warming. Still, our data suggests overall a conditional, reluctant acceptance. That is, while on average, people think SRM would have mostly negative consequences, they may still be willing to tolerate it as a potential last resort to fight global warming, particularly if they think SRM has only minor negative (or even positive) impacts on humans and nature.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140324633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reflections of a graduate student team on developing and implementing a transdisciplinary research project: Challenges, recommendations, and lessons learned","authors":"Lydia Horne, Alyssa Soucy, Asha DiMatteo-LePape, Valeria Briones, Gabriela Wolf-Gonzalez","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03715-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03715-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Graduate students can face difficulties collaborating across disciplines and outside of academia. Stakeholder-engaged research (i.e., research involving partners outside of academia) presents challenges for developing a project, finding collaborators, and co-creating knowledge. Past reflections on how to navigate stakeholder-engaged research assume a faculty member leads the project and do not often address implementation from a student-led approach. In this paper, we provide insight on our team science process from an applied, graduate student perspective. We reflect on the formation of our student team and the implementation of a tourism planning research project with community partners. We discuss challenges and focus on practical tips to overcome these challenges. Specifically, we include reflections on co-developing a research project, building authentic partnerships, negotiating power dynamics, and the role of institutional support. Lessons learned from this project can guide other graduate student teams working with stakeholders, as well as faculty seeking to train graduate students in stakeholder-engaged research.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140311877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Women's experiences and sustainable adaptation: a socio-ecological study of climate change in the Himalayas","authors":"Suraj Das","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03716-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03716-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gender norms and the experiences of women play a pivotal role in shaping the sustainable outcomes of climate change mitigation and food security efforts, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas like the Himalayas. Despite their significance, these dimensions often remain marginalized in policy formulation processes. This research article aims to address this gap by conducting a cross-sectional study in ten villages within the Himalayan region. The study seeks to achieve two primary objectives: (i) assess the impact of climate-induced emergencies on women, and (ii) analyse the gendered norms influencing food choices, with the intent of identifying gender-inclusive measures for climate adaptation and food security. The research employs a mixed-methodology approach, combining quantitative analysis through household surveys (<i>N</i> = 210) with factor analysis, and qualitative insights derived from thematic analysis. The theoretical framework draws on Bourdieu's concept of \"field,\" enabling a nuanced understanding of varied responses to climate change and their underlying rationales. Findings highlight that gender norms exacerbate the vulnerability of women to the impacts of climate change. Additionally, the research underscores the pivotal role of women's traditional knowledge in fostering sustainable food practices and climate adaptation strategies. This study sheds light on the necessity of integrating gender perspectives into policy formation for effective and equitable climate change adaptation and food security strategies in Himalayan communities. Current research underscores the imperative of recognizing and harnessing the experiences and knowledge of women to create holistic and enduring solutions to climate challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"152 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North","authors":"Albert van Wijngaarden, John C. Moore, Bjorn Alfthan, Tiina Kurvits, Lars Kullerud","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03705-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03705-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The frozen elements of the high North are thawing as the region warms much faster than the global mean. The dangers of sea level rise due to melting glacier ice, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost, and alterations in the key high latitude physical systems spurred many authors, and more recently international agencies and supra-state actors, to investigate “emergency measures” that might help conserve the frozen North. However, the efficacy and feasibility of many of these ideas remains highly uncertain, and some might come with significant risks, or could be even outright dangerous to the ecosystems and people of the North. To date, no review has evaluated all suggested schemes. The objectives of this first phase literature survey (which can be found in a separate compendium (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10602506), are to consider all proposed interventions in a common evaluation space, and identify knowledge gaps in active conservation proposals. We found 61 interventions with a high latitude focus, across atmosphere, land, oceans, ice and industry domains. We grade them on a simple three-point evaluation system across 12 different categories. From this initial review we can identify which ideas scored low marks on most categories and are therefore likely not worthwhile pursuing; some groups of interventions, like traditional land-based mitigation efforts, score relatively highly while ocean-based and sea ice measures, score lower and have higher uncertainties overall. This review will provide the basis for a further in-depth expert assessment that will form phase two of the project over the next few years sponsored by University of the Arctic.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Neutral and negative effects of policy bundling on support for decarbonization","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03720-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03720-7","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Decarbonization policies are frequently combined with other policies to increase public support or address related societal issues. To investigate the consequences of policy bundling, we conducted a survey experiment with 2,521 U.S. adults. We examined the effects of bundling decarbonization with policies favored by liberals (social justice and economic redistribution), broad bipartisan coalitions (infrastructure), and conservatives (pausing EPA regulations) on public support and polarization. Bundling with pausing EPA regulations decreased support and polarization by reducing liberal supportwithout significantly increasing conservative support. Bundling with social justice decreased support while increasing polarization by reducing conservative support without significantly increasing liberal support. Bundling with economic redistribution and infrastructure did not significantly change support or polarization. Policy bundling thus risks decreasing public support for decarbonization policies by alienating one ideological side of the electorate without gaining support from the other side. This risk exists even when policy bundling reduces polarization.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}