Climatic Change最新文献

{"title":"Improving figures for climate change communications: Insights from interviews with international policymakers and practitioners","authors":"Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Lila Rabinovich, Kate Weber, Marianna Babboni, Lance Ignon, Rachel Wald, Monica Dean, Alix Kashdan, Sigourney Luz","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03704-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03704-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nearly 200 governments rely on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for scientific assessments of climate change. IPCC figures are important for conveying key findings, but can be difficult for policymakers and practitioners to understand. Best practices in graph design, summarized in the IPCC’s visual style guide, recommend conducting interviews with members of the target audience before finalizing figures. Therefore, we interviewed 20 policy makers and practitioners from different countries about three figures drafted for the second order draft of the summary for policymakers associated with IPCC’s Working Group III Sixth Assessment Report. Half were frequent users and half were occasional users of climate science, but similar comments emerged from both groups. The figures received a median rating of 3, on a scale from 1 (= not easy at all to understand) to 5 (= very easy to understand). Showing the caption did not always improve these ratings. Overall, two types of recommendations emerged. First, participants suggested focusing each figure on one key message for policymakers, and removing irrelevant details. For IPCC authors, this involves making hard choices about what to show in the figure and what to leave for the text. Additionally, participants suggested straightforward fixes such as using clear titles, labels, and captions that support the key message. Based on our findings, we present recommendations for the design of climate change figures, and examples of revised figures. These recommendations should be useful for the next round of IPCC reports, and for other organizations that communicate about climate science with policymakers and practitioners.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"158 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140204421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Addressing knowledge gaps on emerging issues in weather and climate extreme events: a systematic review","authors":"Kamil Muhammad Kafi, Zakiah Ponrahono, Aliyu Salisu Barau","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03714-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03714-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines various studies on weather and climate extreme events (WCEE) to identify thematic trends and research gaps and suggest directions for further studies. The review identifies 14 subthemes and 23 research focuses, that address impacts and issues in the pre-, during-, and post-disaster phases. Using a matrix of WCEE dimensionality and content matrix analysis, we analyze the distribution and research focus of these studies, revealing areas with both extensive and limited research. While significant literature exists on certain WCEE subthemes, with a strong focus on damage assessment, spatial extent, losses, and disaster management approaches, only a limited number of studies have explored crucial areas such as risk prediction, urban planning, water quality, urban resilience, and public health dimensions. These areas are vital for effective disaster risk reduction. To bridge the knowledge gaps in these areas and other areas with multi-dimensional outlooks within the context of WCEE, we recommend prioritizing research in these subthemes. Our findings underscore the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and the need for additional research to enhance our understanding of WCEE. Through evidence-based strategies, policymakers and practitioners can develop measures to enhance resilience and mitigate the impacts of WCEE.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140128494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do sensemaking and climate change education affect climate engagement at the grassroots level? A study of five communities in Southeastern Ghana","authors":"Henry Adobor","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03701-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03701-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study aims to explore how climate change education and sensemaking can lead to climate engagement and adaptive behavior at the grassroots level. The research focuses on five rural communities in Ghana and seeks to answer three key questions related to how people understand and respond to climate change issues. One strength of the study is the use of sensemaking as an organizing framework, which allows for a nuanced understanding of how people at the grassroots level make sense of complex environmental issues like climate change. The study findings suggest that sensemaking was a critical factor in how people noticed and made meaning of the climate crisis, and that deliberative tools like storytelling, conversation, and listening were important tools for facilitating this process. We also found that climate educators needed to address existing misconceptions before framing climate change issues in terms of science and impact on livelihoods. Linking climate change to rural livelihoods resonated more with people than science, and a strategy of guiding communities to recognize the need for adaptive behavior through individual and collective sensemaking was important. The emphasis on linking climate change to rural livelihoods rather than science is an important finding, as it suggests that approaches that emphasize the impact of climate change on local communities and their ability to adapt may be more effective than purely scientific arguments.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140056714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emotions, worry, efficacy, and climate change–related sustainability behaviors among a representative sample of Texas and Florida residents","authors":"Dana Rose Garfin, Michelle V. Zernick, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03658-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03658-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Uptake and support of sustainable technologies that decrease greenhouse gas emissions are critical to mitigating climate change. Engagement in individual (e.g., eating less meat, electric car use) and collective (e.g., petition signing, donating money to environmental causes) sustainability behaviors may correlate with psychological factors including emotions, worry about climate change and natural hazards, and response efficacy. However, little research has explored these relationships in representative samples at high risk for climate-related hazard exposures (e.g., hurricanes, heatwaves, flooding). We assessed climate change-related sustainability behaviors in an ongoing, probability-based representative survey of 1479 Texas and Florida residents repeatedly exposed to climate-related hazards including hurricanes, heatwaves, flooding, and tornadoes. Controlling for demographics, behavior-related positive and negative emotions correlated with engagement in performing a greater number of collective-level sustainability behaviors (positive emotions: IRR = 2.06, <i>p</i> &lt; .001; negative emotions: IRR = 1.46, <i>p</i> = .030). However, negative emotions were mediated by natural hazard worry, which in turn was mediated by climate change worry. Positive emotions were mediated by response efficacy. Individual-level sustainability behaviors were associated with positive emotions (IRR = 1.18, <i>p</i> &lt; .001), which were again mediated by response efficacy. In adjusted analyses unpacking the relationship between discrete emotions and sustainability behaviors, hope was associated with individual- and collective-level sustainability behaviors (all <i>p</i>s &lt; .05). Results suggest general climate change worry may be adaptive and that feelings of hope, relative to other emotions (both positive and negative), may help encourage sustainability behaviors that address climate change. Scalable interventions should explore leveraging these psychological experiences to promote uptake of sustainable technology-related behaviors more broadly.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140045878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The newsworthiness of “climate change” in China over the last thirty years (1993–2022): a diachronic corpus-based news discourse analysis","authors":"Cheng Chen, Renping Liu","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03703-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03703-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article explores the discursive construction of news values by Chinese media to reveal how climate change was packaged and sold to the Chinese public over the last 30 years (1993–2022). Adopting the corpus linguistic method and the Discursive news values analysis (DNVA) framework, this study examines news values through key words and photographs from five Chinese mainstream media websites. The selected timeframe is significant as it comprises domestic news reports published during three different governance phases, from 1993–2002, 2003–2012, and 2013–2022. The results show that the Chinese news reporting in each of the 3 phases has constantly and dominantly construed the news value of Eliteness, albeit in different ways. From 1993 to 2002, climate change was constructed as an an external concept which lacked a concrete China-associated interpretation; from 2003 to 2012, climate change was framed as China’s domestic issue, which saw substantive progress in governance efforts across the board to address the challenge; from 2013 to 2022, climate change was established as China’s diplomatic issue. Overall, through the three phases, climate change has been identified as increasingly concrete and localized in the Chinese context, and China’s initiatives to tackle climate change have been increasingly promoted from domestic to international contexts. The news values and the construction ways the Chinese media selected to report climate change were largely dominated by China’s transition in industrial structure and mode of production during the last 30 years, as well as China’s diplomatic strategy to build a Community with a Shared Future in the recent decade.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140009175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decoupling of CO2 emissions and income in the U.S.: A new look from EKC","authors":"Zuyi Wang, Man-Keun Kim","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03706-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03706-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper attempts to analyze decoupling between CO₂ emissions and income growth in the U.S. through the lens of Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Many states in the U.S. have achieved absolute decoupling in recent years, which means that CO₂ emissions have decreased while the economy grows. This is partly due to the adoption of low-emission technologies, such as coal to gas switching, nuclear power, and economic restructuring towards a more sustainable economy. We argue that understanding decoupling is crucial to implement effective climate change policies. This study suggests that, after 2015, EKC has taken on the U-shaped form with many states currently located on the negatively sloped portion of the curve. It is not desirable as emissions may eventually begin to increase as the economy grows. To support this claim, we estimate panel fixed effects rolling-window EKCs using two-stage least square with two instrumental variables, unemployment rate and the trend variable. Empirical results show how the inverted U-shaped EKC has transformed into the U-shaped EKC in the U.S. This transformation is probably caused by the recent increases in emissions in transportation sector, strong electricity demand in recent years with cold winter seasons, reversals of eco-friendly energy policies, and manufacturers’ onshoring. Stakeholders should make efforts to transform the U-shaped EKC back to an inverted U-shaped EKC even in cases where absolute decoupling is observed.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"149 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140009062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biodiversity losses associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in six countries","authors":"J. Price, R. Warren, N. Forstenhäusler","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03666-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03666-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the climatically determined geographic ranges of plants and vertebrates in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India), accounting for uncertainties in regional climate projection. We quantify in a spatially explicit fashion the species richness remaining or lost, allowing the identification of climate refugia which we define as areas where &gt; 75% of the species currently present remain in a world with a particular level of global warming above pre-industrial levels. In all countries and in both taxa, species richness declines with warming, as does the proportion of each country remaining a climate refugium for plants or vertebrates. In percentage terms, refugia loss relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period is greatest in India and Brazil, and least in Ghana and Ethiopia for the same level of warming, and is greater for plants than for vertebrates. Taking account of present land uses (i.e. area still considered natural), and using species richness of plants as a proxy to indicate biodiversity more generally, the proportion of land acting as climate refugia for biodiversity in five of the countries variously declines from 32–75% of a country in the 1961–1990 baseline period to 20–64% for 1.5 °C global warming, 11–53% for 2 °C, 3–33% for 3 °C and 2–24% for 4 °C warming. In Ethiopia, India, Brazil and China, climate refugia decline rapidly with warming while in Ghana and China some refugia persist even with 3–4 °C of warming. Only small percentages of Brazil, India and China are both climate refugia and lie within protected areas; hence, an expansion of the protected area networks in these countries would be required to deliver climate resilient biodiversity conservation. These percentages are larger in Ethiopia and Ghana and, in some areas of Ghana, the only remaining refugia are in protected areas, the remaining landscape converted to other uses.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140008982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries","authors":"R. Warren, J. Price, N. Forstenhäusler, O. Andrews, S. Brown, K. Ebi, D. Gernaat, P. Goodwin, D. Guan, Y. He, D. Manful, Z. Yin, Y. Hu, K. Jenkins, R. Jenkins, A. Kennedy-Asser, T. J. Osborn, D. VanVuuren, C. Wallace, D. Wang, R. Wright","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03646-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03646-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Topical Collection “Accrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries” provides a harmonised assessment of risks to human and natural systems due to global warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India) using a consistent set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. It compares risks in 2100 if warming has reached 3 °C, broadly corresponding to current global greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, including countries’ National Determined Contributions, rather than the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to ‘well below’ 2 °C and ‘pursuing efforts’ to limit to 1.5 °C. Global population is assumed either constant at year 2000 levels or to increase to 9.2 billion by 2100. In either case, greater warming is projected to lead, in all six countries, to greater exposure of land and people to drought and fluvial flood hazard, greater declines in biodiversity, and greater reductions in the yield of maize and wheat. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared with ~ 3 °C, is projected to deliver large benefits for all six countries, including reduced economic damages due to fluvial flooding. The greatest projected benefits are the avoidance of a large increase in exposure of agricultural land to severe drought, which is 61%, 43%, 18%, and 21% lower in Ethiopia, China, Ghana, and India at 1.5 °C than at 3 °C, whilst avoided increases in human exposure to severe drought are 20–80% lower at 1.5 °C than 3 °C across the six countries. Climate refugia for plants are largely preserved at 1.5 °C warming in Ghana, China, and Ethiopia, but refugia shrink in areal extent by a factor of 2, 3, 3, 4, and 10 in Ghana, China, India, Ethiopia, and Brazil, respectively, if warming reaches 3 °C. Economic damages associated with sea-level rise are projected to increase in coastal nations, but more slowly if warming were limited to 1.5 °C. Actual benefits on the ground will also depend on national and local contexts and the extent of future investment in adaptation.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"128 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140009169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From regional climate models to usable information","authors":"Julie Jebeile","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03693-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03693-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Today, a major challenge for climate science is to overcome what is called the “usability gap” between the projections derived fromclimate models and the needs of the end-users. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are expected to provide usable information concerning a variety of impacts and for a wide range of end-users. It is often assumed that the development of more accurate, more complex RCMs with higher spatial resolution should bring process understanding and better local projections, thus overcoming the usability gap. In this paper, I rather assume that the credibility of climate information should be pursued together with two other criteria of usability, which are salience and legitimacy. Based on the Swiss climate change scenarios, I study the attempts at meeting the needs of end-users and outline the trade-off modellers and users have to face with respect to the cascade of uncertainty. A conclusion of this paper is that the trade-off between salience and credibility sets the conditions under which RCMs can be deemed adequate for the purposes of addressing the needs of end-users and gearing the communication of the projections toward direct use and action.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140009209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels","authors":"Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Rhosanna Jenkins, Erin Graham","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03650-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03650-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present the results from a new framework providing an assessment of how climate change risks to natural capital accrue with warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India). Unlike typical biodiversity and climate change studies, this assessment also considers landcover and population changes across a range of 17 ecosystem services. The potential impacts of climate change (alone) on natural capital at 1.5 °C is greatest in Brazil and least in Ghana. However, when population and landcover change are included, areas projected to be at high natural capital risk begin to accrue by 1.5 °C in all countries. By 2 °C, Ethiopia and Ghana show increasing areas at high risk, even though they are at low risk owing to climate alone. Thus, current impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services and changes in potential demand coupled with warming exceed changes projected by climate alone. However, this also indicates that there is adaptation potential, especially with warming of &lt; 2 °C, to reduce risk through restoring habitat. At lower levels of warming, targeted restoration of marginal agricultural habitats would increase the bank of natural capital for use by people and provide support for remaining agricultural lands. By 3 °C, the adaptation potential from restoration is substantially less: &lt; 1% in Brazil, India and Egypt; 7–8% in China and Ethiopia; but still 26% in Ghana. This indicates that restoration as an adaptation option for biodiversity, and thus, natural capital, rapidly decreases with increasing temperatures. By 2100, factoring in population change (SSP2), current ecological footprint, and current landcover, even with only 1.5 °C warming, large parts of Brazil, eastern China, most of Egypt, much of Ethiopia, southwestern Ghana (except for protected areas), and most of India are at high to extreme natural capital risk with an adaptation deficit potentially equating to a soft adaptation limit.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140009236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}