Climatic Change最新文献

{"title":"Attribution of streamflow changes during 1961–2019 in the Upper Yangtze and the Upper Yellow River basins","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03712-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03712-7","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Climate change has remarkable global impacts on hydrological systems, prompting the need to attribute past changes for better future risk estimation and adaptation planning. This study evaluates the differences in simulated discharge from hydrological models when driven by a set of factual and counterfactual climate data, obtained using the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project's recommended data and detrending method, for quantification of climate change impact attribution. The results reveal that climate change has substantially amplified streamflow trends in the Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow basins from 1961 to 2019, aligning with precipitation patterns. Notably, decreasing trends of river flows under counterfactual climate have been reversed, resulting in significant increases. Climate change contributes to 13%, 15% and 8% increases of long-term mean annual discharge, Q10, and Q90 in the Upper Yangtze at Pingshan, and 11%, 10%, 10% in the Upper Yellow at Tangnaihai. The impact are more pronounced at headwater stations, particularly in the Upper Yangtze, where they are twice as high as at the Pingshan outlet. Climate change has a greater impact on Q10 than on Q90 in the Upper Yangtze, while the difference is smaller in the Upper Yellow. The impact of climate change on these flows has accelerated in the recent 30 years compared to the previous 29 years. The attribution of detected differences to climate change is more obvious for the Upper Yangtze than for the Upper Yellow.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How does an economic shock affect environmental attitudes, preferences and issue importance? Evidence from Switzerland","authors":"Lukas Rudolph, Sarah Gomm","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03709-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03709-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do economic shocks affect pressure by the mass public for pro-environmental political action? If democratic systems are to develop and sustain ambitious environmental policy over several decades, this question is important to answer. Theoretically, we argue to look beyond changes in attitudes such as environmental concern, and trace whether and how citizen's policy preferences, and the political importance they attach to environment-related issues change when experiencing a deterioration of their personal economic situation. Empirically, we draw on high-quality population-representative panel survey data for an affluent country, Switzerland, combining tailored survey measures for quasi-random Corona-related employment and income losses, nuanced measures of environmental attitudes and policy preferences, and recently developed measures for issue importance. We neither find a decline of environmental policy support among economically affected individuals compared to the rest of the population (a population wide drop, however), nor lower importance given to environment related relative to economic issues in voting decisions. While this suggests that politicians need not fear electoral losses when pursuing environmental policies in times of economic crisis, we note that the severe extent of the Covid-induced recession, coupled with a rapid recovery, is peculiar to this economic crisis and warrants further research regarding the generalizability of our findings to economic shocks of longer duration.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change, large risks, small risks, and the value per statistical life","authors":"Anna Alberini, Milan Ščasný","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03721-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03721-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We conduct a contingent valuation survey in Spain and the UK to elicit information about the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for heat wave watch and response programs. We find that people <i>are</i> willing to pay for such programs, and that the WTP (€ 50 for each of 10 years; 2019 PPP euro) is virtually the same across the two countries and across respondents that received two alternate presentations of the mortality risks with and without the programs. The responses to the WTP questions are internally consistent. Persons who re-assessed their own risks as “very high” after reading the questionnaire’s information about the health effects of excessive heat are prepared to pay more for these programs. These persons are in poor health and less highly educated, and thus an important priority for outreach and education efforts by heat wave watch and response programs. That people value saving lives during heat waves as important is confirmed by the results of person tradeoffs, which show that avoiding a fatality during heat waves is comparable to avoiding a cancer fatality, is slightly more valuable than an avoiding a cardiovascular fatality, and definitely more valuable than an avoided road traffic fatality. The Value per Statistical Life implied by the WTP for the programs is € 1.1 million to € 4.7 million (2019 PPP euro), depending on the size of the mortality risk reduction valued by the respondent, for an average of € 1.6 million.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"273 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving figures for climate change communications: Insights from interviews with international policymakers and practitioners","authors":"Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Lila Rabinovich, Kate Weber, Marianna Babboni, Lance Ignon, Rachel Wald, Monica Dean, Alix Kashdan, Sigourney Luz","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03704-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03704-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nearly 200 governments rely on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for scientific assessments of climate change. IPCC figures are important for conveying key findings, but can be difficult for policymakers and practitioners to understand. Best practices in graph design, summarized in the IPCC’s visual style guide, recommend conducting interviews with members of the target audience before finalizing figures. Therefore, we interviewed 20 policy makers and practitioners from different countries about three figures drafted for the second order draft of the summary for policymakers associated with IPCC’s Working Group III Sixth Assessment Report. Half were frequent users and half were occasional users of climate science, but similar comments emerged from both groups. The figures received a median rating of 3, on a scale from 1 (= not easy at all to understand) to 5 (= very easy to understand). Showing the caption did not always improve these ratings. Overall, two types of recommendations emerged. First, participants suggested focusing each figure on one key message for policymakers, and removing irrelevant details. For IPCC authors, this involves making hard choices about what to show in the figure and what to leave for the text. Additionally, participants suggested straightforward fixes such as using clear titles, labels, and captions that support the key message. Based on our findings, we present recommendations for the design of climate change figures, and examples of revised figures. These recommendations should be useful for the next round of IPCC reports, and for other organizations that communicate about climate science with policymakers and practitioners.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"158 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140204421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Addressing knowledge gaps on emerging issues in weather and climate extreme events: a systematic review","authors":"Kamil Muhammad Kafi, Zakiah Ponrahono, Aliyu Salisu Barau","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03714-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03714-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines various studies on weather and climate extreme events (WCEE) to identify thematic trends and research gaps and suggest directions for further studies. The review identifies 14 subthemes and 23 research focuses, that address impacts and issues in the pre-, during-, and post-disaster phases. Using a matrix of WCEE dimensionality and content matrix analysis, we analyze the distribution and research focus of these studies, revealing areas with both extensive and limited research. While significant literature exists on certain WCEE subthemes, with a strong focus on damage assessment, spatial extent, losses, and disaster management approaches, only a limited number of studies have explored crucial areas such as risk prediction, urban planning, water quality, urban resilience, and public health dimensions. These areas are vital for effective disaster risk reduction. To bridge the knowledge gaps in these areas and other areas with multi-dimensional outlooks within the context of WCEE, we recommend prioritizing research in these subthemes. Our findings underscore the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and the need for additional research to enhance our understanding of WCEE. Through evidence-based strategies, policymakers and practitioners can develop measures to enhance resilience and mitigate the impacts of WCEE.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140128494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do sensemaking and climate change education affect climate engagement at the grassroots level? A study of five communities in Southeastern Ghana","authors":"Henry Adobor","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03701-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03701-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study aims to explore how climate change education and sensemaking can lead to climate engagement and adaptive behavior at the grassroots level. The research focuses on five rural communities in Ghana and seeks to answer three key questions related to how people understand and respond to climate change issues. One strength of the study is the use of sensemaking as an organizing framework, which allows for a nuanced understanding of how people at the grassroots level make sense of complex environmental issues like climate change. The study findings suggest that sensemaking was a critical factor in how people noticed and made meaning of the climate crisis, and that deliberative tools like storytelling, conversation, and listening were important tools for facilitating this process. We also found that climate educators needed to address existing misconceptions before framing climate change issues in terms of science and impact on livelihoods. Linking climate change to rural livelihoods resonated more with people than science, and a strategy of guiding communities to recognize the need for adaptive behavior through individual and collective sensemaking was important. The emphasis on linking climate change to rural livelihoods rather than science is an important finding, as it suggests that approaches that emphasize the impact of climate change on local communities and their ability to adapt may be more effective than purely scientific arguments.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140056714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emotions, worry, efficacy, and climate change–related sustainability behaviors among a representative sample of Texas and Florida residents","authors":"Dana Rose Garfin, Michelle V. Zernick, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03658-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03658-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Uptake and support of sustainable technologies that decrease greenhouse gas emissions are critical to mitigating climate change. Engagement in individual (e.g., eating less meat, electric car use) and collective (e.g., petition signing, donating money to environmental causes) sustainability behaviors may correlate with psychological factors including emotions, worry about climate change and natural hazards, and response efficacy. However, little research has explored these relationships in representative samples at high risk for climate-related hazard exposures (e.g., hurricanes, heatwaves, flooding). We assessed climate change-related sustainability behaviors in an ongoing, probability-based representative survey of 1479 Texas and Florida residents repeatedly exposed to climate-related hazards including hurricanes, heatwaves, flooding, and tornadoes. Controlling for demographics, behavior-related positive and negative emotions correlated with engagement in performing a greater number of collective-level sustainability behaviors (positive emotions: IRR = 2.06, <i>p</i> &lt; .001; negative emotions: IRR = 1.46, <i>p</i> = .030). However, negative emotions were mediated by natural hazard worry, which in turn was mediated by climate change worry. Positive emotions were mediated by response efficacy. Individual-level sustainability behaviors were associated with positive emotions (IRR = 1.18, <i>p</i> &lt; .001), which were again mediated by response efficacy. In adjusted analyses unpacking the relationship between discrete emotions and sustainability behaviors, hope was associated with individual- and collective-level sustainability behaviors (all <i>p</i>s &lt; .05). Results suggest general climate change worry may be adaptive and that feelings of hope, relative to other emotions (both positive and negative), may help encourage sustainability behaviors that address climate change. Scalable interventions should explore leveraging these psychological experiences to promote uptake of sustainable technology-related behaviors more broadly.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140045878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The newsworthiness of “climate change” in China over the last thirty years (1993–2022): a diachronic corpus-based news discourse analysis","authors":"Cheng Chen, Renping Liu","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03703-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03703-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article explores the discursive construction of news values by Chinese media to reveal how climate change was packaged and sold to the Chinese public over the last 30 years (1993–2022). Adopting the corpus linguistic method and the Discursive news values analysis (DNVA) framework, this study examines news values through key words and photographs from five Chinese mainstream media websites. The selected timeframe is significant as it comprises domestic news reports published during three different governance phases, from 1993–2002, 2003–2012, and 2013–2022. The results show that the Chinese news reporting in each of the 3 phases has constantly and dominantly construed the news value of Eliteness, albeit in different ways. From 1993 to 2002, climate change was constructed as an an external concept which lacked a concrete China-associated interpretation; from 2003 to 2012, climate change was framed as China’s domestic issue, which saw substantive progress in governance efforts across the board to address the challenge; from 2013 to 2022, climate change was established as China’s diplomatic issue. Overall, through the three phases, climate change has been identified as increasingly concrete and localized in the Chinese context, and China’s initiatives to tackle climate change have been increasingly promoted from domestic to international contexts. The news values and the construction ways the Chinese media selected to report climate change were largely dominated by China’s transition in industrial structure and mode of production during the last 30 years, as well as China’s diplomatic strategy to build a Community with a Shared Future in the recent decade.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140009175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decoupling of CO2 emissions and income in the U.S.: A new look from EKC","authors":"Zuyi Wang, Man-Keun Kim","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03706-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03706-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper attempts to analyze decoupling between CO₂ emissions and income growth in the U.S. through the lens of Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Many states in the U.S. have achieved absolute decoupling in recent years, which means that CO₂ emissions have decreased while the economy grows. This is partly due to the adoption of low-emission technologies, such as coal to gas switching, nuclear power, and economic restructuring towards a more sustainable economy. We argue that understanding decoupling is crucial to implement effective climate change policies. This study suggests that, after 2015, EKC has taken on the U-shaped form with many states currently located on the negatively sloped portion of the curve. It is not desirable as emissions may eventually begin to increase as the economy grows. To support this claim, we estimate panel fixed effects rolling-window EKCs using two-stage least square with two instrumental variables, unemployment rate and the trend variable. Empirical results show how the inverted U-shaped EKC has transformed into the U-shaped EKC in the U.S. This transformation is probably caused by the recent increases in emissions in transportation sector, strong electricity demand in recent years with cold winter seasons, reversals of eco-friendly energy policies, and manufacturers’ onshoring. Stakeholders should make efforts to transform the U-shaped EKC back to an inverted U-shaped EKC even in cases where absolute decoupling is observed.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"149 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140009062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biodiversity losses associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in six countries","authors":"J. Price, R. Warren, N. Forstenhäusler","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03666-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03666-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the climatically determined geographic ranges of plants and vertebrates in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India), accounting for uncertainties in regional climate projection. We quantify in a spatially explicit fashion the species richness remaining or lost, allowing the identification of climate refugia which we define as areas where &gt; 75% of the species currently present remain in a world with a particular level of global warming above pre-industrial levels. In all countries and in both taxa, species richness declines with warming, as does the proportion of each country remaining a climate refugium for plants or vertebrates. In percentage terms, refugia loss relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period is greatest in India and Brazil, and least in Ghana and Ethiopia for the same level of warming, and is greater for plants than for vertebrates. Taking account of present land uses (i.e. area still considered natural), and using species richness of plants as a proxy to indicate biodiversity more generally, the proportion of land acting as climate refugia for biodiversity in five of the countries variously declines from 32–75% of a country in the 1961–1990 baseline period to 20–64% for 1.5 °C global warming, 11–53% for 2 °C, 3–33% for 3 °C and 2–24% for 4 °C warming. In Ethiopia, India, Brazil and China, climate refugia decline rapidly with warming while in Ghana and China some refugia persist even with 3–4 °C of warming. Only small percentages of Brazil, India and China are both climate refugia and lie within protected areas; hence, an expansion of the protected area networks in these countries would be required to deliver climate resilient biodiversity conservation. These percentages are larger in Ethiopia and Ghana and, in some areas of Ghana, the only remaining refugia are in protected areas, the remaining landscape converted to other uses.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140008982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}