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Models of Risk Measurement and Control in Power Generation Investment 发电投资风险度量与控制模型
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.017
Hong-xing Sun, Zhong-fu Tan
{"title":"Models of Risk Measurement and Control in Power Generation Investment","authors":"Hong-xing Sun,&nbsp;Zhong-fu Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the electricity market environment, Power generation companies are faced with much uncertainty and greater risks. It is a realistic problem for power generation companies to optimize their investment decisions and minimize risks in investment of engineering projects. In this paper, Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measurement techniques are used to establish models of risk assessment and risk control for power generation companies to invest under multi-markets and multi-types power units. Optimization models of risk control based on two criterions can be used by power generation companies in different electricity markets and different types of power generation units to distribute there investment in order to maximize benefits and minimize risk value. The case demonstrates the validity of these models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 125-131"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74617563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
on Correlation between RMB Exchange Rate and Real Estate Price based on Financial Engineering 基于金融工程的人民币汇率与房地产价格相关性研究
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.020
LIU Yang , HU Zhiqiang
{"title":"on Correlation between RMB Exchange Rate and Real Estate Price based on Financial Engineering","authors":"LIU Yang ,&nbsp;HU Zhiqiang","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the post-crisis age, the continued appreciation of RMB and raise of housing price, and the positive correlation between them caused great attention from the public. This paper examines the relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and real estate price by VAR test by using the monthly data from Jan, 2007 to Dec, 2010. The empirical result shows in the short run, raise of housing price will cause the depression of RMB exchange rate, however, in the long run, real estate has a positive impact on RMB exchange rate, therefore based on current financial engineering background, it is important for China to control the real estate price in order to maintain gradually and slightly appreciation of RMB.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 146-152"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85026049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Research on Demand-driven Leagile Supply Chain Operation Model: A Simulation Based on AnyLogic in System Engineering 需求驱动的敏捷供应链运行模型研究:基于AnyLogic的系统工程仿真
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.027
Yongan Zhang, Ying Wang, Long Wu
{"title":"Research on Demand-driven Leagile Supply Chain Operation Model: A Simulation Based on AnyLogic in System Engineering","authors":"Yongan Zhang,&nbsp;Ying Wang,&nbsp;Long Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the development of economy and information technology, the competition between enterprises has already entered the period of “competition between supply chains”. It is more and more impossible to satisfy the customer personalized and diversified demands with reducing the total cost. Using the system engineering concept, the system dynamics models of traditional supply chain and leagile supply chain are built in this paper. Through comparing the simulation results of these two kinds of supply chain, we show the advantages of leagile supply chain. The results hold that shorten the length of supply chain, share the information, cooperation and production delay can effectively weaken the bullwhip effect. By running the simulation model, we can determine the relationship among effect factors of leagile supply chain and observe the visual dynamic changes of supply chain. Thus, this result can provide decision supports to enterprises’ leagile supply chain.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 249-258"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84338186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
System Dynamics Modeling-based Study of Contingent Sourcing under Supply Disruptions 供应中断下基于系统动力学建模的应急采购研究
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.078
Minfang Huang, Miaoying Yang, Yuankai Zhang, Bingyi Liu
{"title":"System Dynamics Modeling-based Study of Contingent Sourcing under Supply Disruptions","authors":"Minfang Huang,&nbsp;Miaoying Yang,&nbsp;Yuankai Zhang,&nbsp;Bingyi Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, using the methodology of system dynamics modeling, we separately build two models for a supply chain under two circumstances of supply disruptions, without backup supplier, and with a contingent supplier. The retailer's total profits are also compared under these two circumstances of supply disruptions to help the decision-makers better understanding the backup purchasing strategy. The supply chain studied only involves one retailer and two independent suppliers that are referred to as major supplier and backup supplier. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a better understanding of the impacts of supply disruptions on the system performance and by shedding insights into the value of a backup supply.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"4 ","pages":"Pages 290-297"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.078","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80498237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 33
Computing the Critical Road Section for the Repair of a Transportation Network 交通网络修复关键路段的计算
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.028
Bing Su , Chunyan Hua , Xiaoyi Lan , Qian Yang
{"title":"Computing the Critical Road Section for the Repair of a Transportation Network","authors":"Bing Su ,&nbsp;Chunyan Hua ,&nbsp;Xiaoyi Lan ,&nbsp;Qian Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Let G(V,E) denote a transportation network with a rate of traffic between each pair of nodes, and a latency function for each edge (road section). However, some road sections may be repaired at certain times and make some blockages. In this paper, we focus on the problem of computing a road section e<sub>j</sub>∈E for the repair of a transportation network, whose removal produces the ratio of the minimum sum travel times (total latency) of network G-e<sub>j</sub> to that of network G is maximum. We define such a road section as the critical road section for the repair of a transportation network (CRS for short), and give an algorithm for computing the CRS. Finally, an application of the CRS for a special network is shown. The problem discussed in this paper is of great significance to deal with the transportation management engineering.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"5 ","pages":"Pages 173-178"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80594131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Early warning model for risks of energy prices and energy price ratios in China's energy engineering 中国能源工程中能源价格风险与能源价格比预警模型
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.003
Yong-xiu He, Ying Zhou, Bing Wang, Wei Xiong, Hai-ying He
{"title":"Early warning model for risks of energy prices and energy price ratios in China's energy engineering","authors":"Yong-xiu He,&nbsp;Ying Zhou,&nbsp;Bing Wang,&nbsp;Wei Xiong,&nbsp;Hai-ying He","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Along with the rapid increase of China's energy demands, the energy engineering is facing more and more complex risks. The present research on the early warning methods of energy price risk mainly consider single prices and fail to analyze the energy price system integrally. In this paper, an early warning model of China's energy price is analyzed from the aspects of price fluctuation and price ratio structure through fitting the risk distributions of indices and applying the CGE model (Computable General Equilibrium). And Based on analyzing China's warning degrees of energy price ratios in the year 2015, it is found that the price ratios between electricity and crude oil are in the state of ‘dangerous’, while others are in the state of ‘highly dangerous’, including the price ratios between refined oil and crude oil, between the natural gas of resident and crude oil, between natural gas and coal and between electricity and coal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 22-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89914920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
A Model of Complexity Measurement for Emergency Decision Support System 应急决策支持系统复杂性度量模型
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.045
Yunhua Wang , Shihong Chen , Huiyan Ke
{"title":"A Model of Complexity Measurement for Emergency Decision Support System","authors":"Yunhua Wang ,&nbsp;Shihong Chen ,&nbsp;Huiyan Ke","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Emergency decision-making is the core of emergency management, and directly determines success or failure of emergency disposal activities. This paper introduced the information entropy in the complexity theory. With the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, the paper proposed a model of evaluation and decision-making for complexity measurement based on information entropy. The model can effectively choose the best decisions in decision-making programs that have been developed and evaluation system. And an example shows its value.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"5 ","pages":"Pages 289-294"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.045","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87895412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
On the Factors that Affect the Proneness of University- Industry Cooperation: A System Engineering Perspective 影响校企合作倾向的因素:系统工程视角
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.030
Fan Xias, Wu Jin
{"title":"On the Factors that Affect the Proneness of University- Industry Cooperation: A System Engineering Perspective","authors":"Fan Xias,&nbsp;Wu Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of organizational features and context variables on the proneness of University-Industry cooperation (UIC) in the R&amp;D and engineering process. Using survey data of manufacturing enterprises in Guangdong province of China, the paper shows that the probability of cooperation with university significantly depends on various organizational factors including firm size and enterprise absorptive capacity. In addition, the actually pay tax the collection of business-to-market and technical information, and market position are also important driving factors to the engineering research cooperation between enterprises and universities, but their influences vary with the type of product innovation and process innovation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 275-281"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86833724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
A catastrophe model on the evaluation and classification of mine disaster rescue measures* 基于巨灾模型的矿山灾害救援措施评价与分类
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2012.01.014
Qian Wu , Kefan Xie, Zhiyue Chen
{"title":"A catastrophe model on the evaluation and classification of mine disaster rescue measures*","authors":"Qian Wu ,&nbsp;Kefan Xie,&nbsp;Zhiyue Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.01.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.01.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to establish a classification system of mine disaster in order to develop the emergency response management. The study divides the mine disaster into three emergency levels and builds an evaluation model with three core factors, including information scarcity, time urgency and situation complexity. In addition, the study introduces catastrophe progression method to evaluate the seriousness level of mine disaster and takes a case study of mine disaster in Shanxi Province. The results show that the evaluation model has strong operability and practical value to emergency manager and rescuers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"4 ","pages":"Pages 484-489"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2012.01.014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86181157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
A Cost-Efficiency Equilibrium Problem of Regional Single Emergency Resource Guarantee with Multi-objective Programming 多目标规划下区域单一应急资源保障的成本-效益平衡问题
Systems Engineering Procedia Pub Date : 2012-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.005
Tie Liu, Ruguo Bu, Jun Huang
{"title":"A Cost-Efficiency Equilibrium Problem of Regional Single Emergency Resource Guarantee with Multi-objective Programming","authors":"Tie Liu,&nbsp;Ruguo Bu,&nbsp;Jun Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the background of regional emergency resource guarantee engineering to respond to earthquake disasters, a multi-objective model of cost-efficiency equilibrium problem is built to guarantee the supply of single emergency resource in an area, combined with qualitative analysis of key factors affecting the resource layout. The model quantifies constitutional indexes about emergency resource guarantee cost and rescue efficiency. With robust optimization ideas, the model is transformed to single-objective programming model according to three decision criteria, and solved with branch-and-bound algorithm by Lingo software. Finally, a numerical example is illustrated to verify the model and decision criteria.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"5 ","pages":"Pages 29-36"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88575369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
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