Results in Earth Sciences最新文献

{"title":"Transitioning from equilibrium of glacier mass balance in the Upper Bhagirathi Valley, Central Himalaya","authors":"Sarmistha Halder ,&nbsp;Pritam Chand ,&nbsp;C. Scott Watson ,&nbsp;Ishtiaq Ahmed ,&nbsp;Rakesh Bhambri","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyses key glaciers in the Upper Bhagirathi Valley, Central Himalaya, India, between 1973 and 2024 based on multi-date digital elevation models (DEMs) to examine the shift from balanced to imbalanced glacier mass budget. From 1973 to 2000, ice loss was evident mainly at the terminus (-0.10 ± 0.04 m w.e. a⁻¹), with a data gap (∼16 km²) in the higher ablation and accumulation zone of Gangotri Glacier, where elevation changes through the main glacier flow path indicated a mass stability or a minor positive mass balance. A marginal increase in mass (+0.11 ± 0.04 m w.e. a⁻¹) was observed from 2000 to 2015, followed by substantial losses during 2015–2020 (-0.27 ± 0.09 m w.e. a⁻¹) and 2020–2024 (-0.62 ± 0.39 m w.e. a⁻¹). Notably, thinning and ice loss expanded from the low-altitude to high-altitude zones (∼&gt;5200 m asl). Gangotri Glacier's mass loss intensified over time, increasing from −0.17 ± 0.01 m w.e. a⁻¹ (1973–2000) to −1.03 ± 0.58 m w.e. a⁻¹ (2020–2024). Similar trends were observed in former tributary glaciers like Raktavaran and Chaturangi. The contact zone between debris-mantled and bare ice exhibited the highest thinning rates, highlighting the influence of surface debris on melting rates. This study reveals surge activity for the first time in the Chaturangi Glacier's tributary (1973–2006), highlighting localized dynamics. The recent shift to an imbalanced state underscores climate change’s impact on ice melt, threatening water supply and ecosystems, and highlighting the need for regular monitoring and adaptive strategies in the warming Himalaya.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thermo-poroelastic analysis of drilling fluid pressure and temperature on wellbore stresses in the Mansouri oilfield, SW Iran","authors":"Alireza Pirhadi ,&nbsp;Pooria Kianoush ,&nbsp;Shahab Varkouhi ,&nbsp;Reza Shirinabadi ,&nbsp;Adel Shirazy ,&nbsp;Aref Shirazi ,&nbsp;Arash Ebrahimabadi","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ensuring wellbore stability is essential for successful oilfield drilling operations, as instability can prolong drilling time and escalate costs, potentially resulting in halted operations and loss of wells. This study presents a comprehensive thermo-poroelastic analysis of wellbore stability, focusing on the impact of thermal effects and pore pressure dynamics in shale formations. Utilizing a coupled thermo-poroelastic model, the research investigates the influence of varying drilling fluid pressure and temperature on wellbore stresses in the Bangestan Reservoir in SW Iran. The analysis employs Hoek-Brown's law, continuity equation, Darcy's law, compatibility equation, and thermal relations, solved using the finite element method within a complex geological model. The findings reveal that horizontal wells are more stable than other configurations, with a pressure limit of 57.23 MPa required to maintain stability. Additionally, a 55–60° azimuth demonstrates the highest mud limit among horizontal wells, while a 20° contrast is observed between formation temperature and drilling fluid in the optimal azimuth. This research introduces innovative methodologies that integrate thermal and pore pressure effects, significantly enhancing the understanding of wellbore stability and contributing to safer and more efficient drilling operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100061"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143159803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geometric structure and hydrodynamic assessment of mio-pliocene aquifers in the Douala sedimentary sub-basin, Cameroon: First appraisal","authors":"Cyrille Donald Njiteu Tchoukeu ,&nbsp;Yvon Bertil Nlend ,&nbsp;Boris Djieugoue ,&nbsp;Kevin Mickus ,&nbsp;Akumbom Vishiti ,&nbsp;Jacques Etame ,&nbsp;Suzanne Ngo Boum Nkot","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100135","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100135","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective groundwater management depends on accurately identifying water access points, quantifying available volumes, and understanding subsurface flow dynamics. This is particularly critical in developing countries where groundwater often represents the primary, and sometimes sole source of safe drinking water - especially in densely populated urban centres. In this study, a combination of geophysical methods, lithostratigraphic data, and hydrodynamic parameters was employed to characterize the geometry and properties of the Mio-Pliocene aquifer system the Douala basin in Cameroon. Using the vertical electrical sounding method and the Schlumberger array along a profile of approximately 166 m, combined with data from 20 boreholes including well-log profiles and hydraulic measurements, the underdeveloped aquifers less than 30 m thick, located around 20 m below the surface. More prominent and hydraulically significant sandy layers were detected at depths of 40–50 m, extending down to about 120 m. Three distinct hydrogeological zones were identified: (a) a shallow layer composed mainly of sandy, clayey, and sandy-clay materials; which outcrops in various areas and is located close to river systems; (b) a thinner intermediate layer characterised by gravelly-sandy and sandy-clay sediments; which constitute an underground extension of the unconfined aquifers. (c) A deep aquifer layer with more consistent lateral facies distribution and greater overall thickness. This deep aquifer system also demonstrated better structural continuity and a confined unit that represents the best underground reservoir for useable water. Piezometric levels across the study area ranged from 12.9 to 36.1 m, with well yields between 8.3 and 33.2 m³ /h and drawdowns from 1.19 to 11.3 m. Transmissivity values varied from 0.003 to 0.087 m²/s, generally increasing towards the coastal zone. These values are a potential indicator of the vulnerability of shallow and semi-shallow aquifers to salt water intrusion, from the surface to roughly 40 m. The geology and topography strongly influence groundwater flow behaviour. These findings provide valuable data that can inform future strategies to improve groundwater accessibility and ensure sustainable water resource management. Due to the fact that the Douala basin is completely connected to the Atlantic Ocean and consists mainly of porous and permeable formations, this study provides opportunities not only for a better understanding of its hydrogeological structure, but also for spatial monitoring of its interaction with seawater and intercontinental stresses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145324167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Source identification and geochemical characteristics of surface and groundwater from Larji-Rampur window, Himachal Himalaya: Implications for socio-environmental perspectives","authors":"Shruti Rana ,&nbsp;Shubham Choudhary ,&nbsp;Sameer K. Tiwari ,&nbsp;Jairam Singh Yadav ,&nbsp;Rajesh Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100074","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100074","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding water quality and its interaction with the litho-units is essential for human activity and socio-environmental development. This study focused on surface, groundwater, and thermal springs water in the Larji-Rampur Window (LRW), Himachal Himalaya, with results revealing that the water was alkaline with an average pH of 7.91. The TDS ranged from 16.38 to 367.92 mg/L, while electrical conductivity (EC) varied between 26 and 584 µS/cm. Calcium (Ca^2 +) dominated the major cations (208–2424 µE), followed by magnesium (Mg²⁺), sodium (Na⁺), and potassium (K⁺), with bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻) being the main anion (200–3000 µE). Mixing diagrams, Gibbs plot, and ionic ratios indicated carbonate weathering as the primary factor, with contributions from silicate weathering. The first factor of principal component analysis (PCA) explains 66.44 % of the variance, indicating carbonates as the primary source of dissolved loads in the basin, with contribution from silicate weathering. The isotopic analysis (δ¹⁸O and δD) showed the samples’ alignment along the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL), with a slight compositional shift due to water-rock interactions. The δ¹³C values (-13.7 to −3.6 ‰), suggested their derivation from associated carbonate rocks. Lithium (Li), strontium (Sr), and iron (Fe) were identified at higher-than-permissible limits in groundwater and thermal springs of Garsah and Parvati Valley. Arsenic levels in geothermal springs reached 48.79 ppb, exceeding WHO guidelines. This study underscores the presence of hazardous elements threatening human health and emphasizes the importance of geological influences on water quality. This work further advocates the need for regular monitoring and management strategies to mitigate risks associated with trace element contamination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100074"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Provenance analysis of Campanian-Maastrichtian sediments, Anambra Basin, Nigeria: Evidence from garnet and tourmaline mineral species and paleocurrents","authors":"Azuka Ocheli ,&nbsp;Joseph Ifeanyi Uche","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electron microprobe analyses of garnet and tourmaline heavy minerals and paleocurrents were carried out in the three rift-related Campanian-Maastrichtian sedimentary formations of the Anambra Basin, Nigeria. This study revealed the existence of an almandine-rich end-member garnet that yielded a PyrAlSpite group (pyrope, almandine, and spessartine) in the study area. Furthermore, the tourmaline grains belong to the alkali and calcic groups which are dominantly composed of dravitic and magnesio-foititic (uvite) tourmaline compositions. High Mg/Fe and Na/Ca ratios indicate medium to high-grade metamorphic source rock derivatives. The integration of garnet and tourmaline data and different binary and ternary discriminant plots show that the precise source rocks of the rift-related sedimentary formations of the Campanian-Maastrichtian, Anambra Basin, Nigeria in the study area were mostly from medium to high-grade basement rocks consisting of andesite, mica-schists, chlorite schists, amphibolites, marble, quartzite, gneisses, metabasic-subophiolitic, granulitic, rhylotic, and aplitic facies and minorly low-grade metasedimentary rocks associated with metacherts, blue-schists, metapelites, phyllites, marbles, and metapsammites. The paleocurrent interpretation reveals that the sandstones were derived from the tectonically restricted Nigerian Precambrian Pan-African Basement Complex and uplifted Benue Trough.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100065"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood hazard zonation using remote sensing, geographic information system, and analytic hierarchy process in the Bhagirathi River Basin, Uttarakhand, India","authors":"Aditya Kumar Varma,&nbsp;Anurag Dhote,&nbsp;Aneesh Mathew,&nbsp;Chinthu Naresh,&nbsp;Padala Raja Shekar","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods are seen as a substantial environmental hazard. A flood hazard map is a crucial tool for evaluating regions vulnerable to flooding. This study seeks to identify flood-prone regions along the Bhagirathi River in the Uttarkashi and Tehri Garhwal districts of Uttarakhand. A hybrid approach utilizing remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS), in conjunction with the Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) Process, was implemented to delineate flood hazard zones within the study area. Seven parameters were selected for this purpose: drainage density, precipitation, slope, land use/land cover (LULC), distance from the river, soil type, and topographic wetness index (TWI). The thematic maps of the parameters were reclassified after ranks were assigned to different classes. AHP was employed to construct a pairwise comparison matrix for all parameters to ascertain the relative weight of each parameter. A weighted overlay analysis was performed by combining reclassified thematic layers with their respective AHP-derived weights to generate the flood hazard map (FHM) for the study area. The output is divided into five distinct flooding hazard zones: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. The precision of these classifications was confirmed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) and Area Under the Curve (AUC). The findings revealed that the accuracy rate for AHP was 66.8 %. The study's findings can serve as a convenient resource to aid in the management and reduction of rescue operations on the banks of the Bhagirathi.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-index detection of rainfall trends and climate shifts in urban tropical kinshasa (1991–2023)","authors":"Vithundwa Richard Posite ,&nbsp;Bayongwa Samuel Ahana ,&nbsp;Cherifa Abdelbaki ,&nbsp;Mohamed Saber ,&nbsp;Emad Habib ,&nbsp;LY Aliousseyni ,&nbsp;Awoke Guadie","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, is increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced rainfall extremes that threaten urban resilience. This study analyzes daily precipitation data over a 33-year period (1991–2023) using a suite of rainfall indices, including those developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), alongside the Mann-Kendall trend test, to assess changes in rainfall intensity, frequency, duration, and extremes. Among the examined indices, Extremely Wet Days (EWD) and the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) exhibited statistically significant positive trends. EWD showed a marked increase (Z = 2.657, p = 0.007), peaking at 15 days in 2020, the highest in the record, indicating a growing frequency of intense rainfall events. SDII also showed a significant rise (Z = 2.866, p = 0.004), suggesting intensification in daily rainfall amounts. Although the upward trend in annual total rainfall (PRCPTOT) was not statistically significant, it supports the overall pattern of increasing wetness. These findings underscore a rising risk of flash flooding and highlight the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies, early warning systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure planning in Kinshasa. The study provides vital evidence to inform policy and urban planning across tropical African cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100106"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144279911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geochemical, diagenetic and depositional characteristics of the Maastrichtian Agbaja Formation ironstone exposed at Enegbaki, southern Bida Basin, Nigeria","authors":"Toba Emmanuel Bamidele ,&nbsp;Olusola Johnson Ojo","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work examines the Maastrichtian Agbaja Formation ironstones at Enegbaki, southern Bida Basin, Nigeria. The ironstone deposit has attracted significant exploration and resource evaluation efforts but its physical characteristics and paleogeographic significance remain uninvestigated. Lithostratigraphic features of the ironstones reveal association with claystone and shale. Twelve ironstone samples were selected for thin-section and polished-section microscopy, XRD, XRF, and ICPMS. Microscopy reveals that the coated grains are either rounded to spherical, partly elongated and the occurrence of whole and broken Fe-coated grains suggest an environment which is relatively agitated, involving multiple episodes of growth and reworking. Mineralogical analysis reveals the presence of amorphous components, goethite, magnetite, siderite, chamosite, maghemite and hematite in the order of abundance. Fe₂O_3, SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ constitute more than 80 % of the oxides in the samples and the Rare Earth Elements range from 129 to 249 ppm. The mineral assemblage of the ironstones indicate that the clay precursors were derived from deep chemical weathering, transported and deposited during periods of reduced clastic sediment influx in shallow to full marine environments. Two depositional facies of the ironstones are recognized; the reduced facies at the lower part comprising chamosite, siderite and magnetite and the oxidized facies are at the upper part consisting of goethite, maghemite and hematite. The main diagenetic features are the early diagenetic chamosite and siderite formation, followed by replacement of kaolinitic clays by goethite and dehydration of goethite to form hematite at the middle to late-stage diagenesis. The ironstone is characterized by intermediate Nd concentration (13.4 – 38.9 ppm), negative Ce and positive Y anomalies suggesting it is of replacement diagenetic origin and this is supported by the presence of preserved clay precursors in the ironstone. The study reveals occurrence of chamosite and siderite in the investigated ironstones indicating that extreme Eh-pH conditions in full marine environment were recorded in the Bida Basin during the Upper Cretaceous period. The presence of chamositic oolitic ironstone and reducing condition in the lower part of the ironstones in study area offers probably evidence of K/T boundary.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hybrid pillar stress analysis: Integrating numerical modelling, machine learning, and geostatistics for improved stability in hardrock mining","authors":"Tawanda Zvarivadza ,&nbsp;Hendrik Grobler ,&nbsp;Peter Apata Olubambi ,&nbsp;Moshood Onifade ,&nbsp;Manoj Khandelwal","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ensuring pillar stability in hardrock room and pillar mining requires accurate stress determination, particularly in complex geological environments such as the Great Dyke of Zimbabwe. Traditional empirical methods, including the Tributary Area Method (TAM) and Coates’ Method, have been widely used but often fail to capture the anisotropic and heterogeneous nature of rockmasses. This study presents an advanced framework for mine pillar stress determination, integrating analytical, numerical modelling, machine learning, and geostatistical techniques to improve predictive accuracy. The primary objectives are to critically evaluate the limitations of traditional methods, assess the efficacy of numerical models such as Finite Element Method (FEM) and Discrete Element Method (DEM), explore the predictive power of machine learning models including Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and analyse the implementation of geostatistical techniques for improved spatial interpolation of stress distributions. A multi-method approach is employed, leveraging our recent practical studies conducted on the Great Dyke. Numerical simulations provide high-resolution stress distribution insights, while machine learning models trained on large datasets demonstrate superior predictive performance. The results highlight the significant advantages of integrating these techniques, with machine learning models achieving high accuracy in pillar stress prediction and geostatistical methods effectively mapping stress variations. The findings contribute to mining research by providing a hybrid methodological framework for real-time stress monitoring and proactive pillar design. The study emphasises the necessity of incorporating dynamic, data-driven approaches in mine design, addressing the limitations of conventional methods. It recommends the adoption of a combined analytical-computational framework to enhance pillar stability, optimise resource extraction, and minimise failure risks. These advancements mark a significant step toward resilient and efficient mining operations in structurally complex environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100129"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring novel super-learner-based machine learning ensembles for landslide susceptibility prediction with integrated uncertainty quantification","authors":"Sumon Dey ,&nbsp;Swarup Das","doi":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rines.2025.100146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Western Ghats, one of the mystic and oldest mountain ranges in Southern India, historically experienced considerable number of landslides. The present study was objectified to quantify the susceptibility of landslides for Idukki district in Kerala (India), a prominent part of the Western Ghats. Fifteen geo-environmental features were taken up for the research after extensive literature survey and feature-selection technique. 1781 historical landslide locations were found through heterogeneous sources. Four advanced machine learning techniques, namely, Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA), Monotone Multi-Layer Perceptron (MONMLP), Model-Averaged Neural Network (MANN), Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) were selected as base-learners with the Gradient Boosting Machines as the Super-learner. The constructed models were found to perform extraordinarily with astounding AUCROC score of 0.975, 0.970, 0.965 and 0.959 with the training data, and 0.946, 0.944, 0.941 and 0.936 with the testing data for GBM-MONMLP, GBM-BDT, GBM-FDA and GBM-MANN model respectively. Taylor’s diagram was used for visual interpretation of the model performance. The models were also validated with Quality Sum (Q’s) index. The maximum Q’s index value of 3.06 was found for GBM-MONMLP followed by 2.94 (GBM-BDT), 2.71 (GBM-MANN) and 2.63 (GBM-FDA). Model calibration score substantiated excellent performance of the models. For enhanced scientific trustworthiness, uncertainty quantification was performed through coefficient-of-variation (COV) and a confidence map for each one of the susceptibility maps was constructed through matrix-intersection method. The findings of the research with fused certainty may be helpful for decision-makers of the region for doing the needful to prioritize safeguarding of human livelihood and reduce the economic depletion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101084,"journal":{"name":"Results in Earth Sciences","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100146"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}