Multi-index detection of rainfall trends and climate shifts in urban tropical kinshasa (1991–2023)

Results in Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI:10.1016/j.rines.2025.100106

Vithundwa Richard Posite , Bayongwa Samuel Ahana , Cherifa Abdelbaki , Mohamed Saber , Emad Habib , LY Aliousseyni , Awoke Guadie

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Abstract

Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, is increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced rainfall extremes that threaten urban resilience. This study analyzes daily precipitation data over a 33-year period (1991–2023) using a suite of rainfall indices, including those developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), alongside the Mann-Kendall trend test, to assess changes in rainfall intensity, frequency, duration, and extremes. Among the examined indices, Extremely Wet Days (EWD) and the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) exhibited statistically significant positive trends. EWD showed a marked increase (Z = 2.657, p = 0.007), peaking at 15 days in 2020, the highest in the record, indicating a growing frequency of intense rainfall events. SDII also showed a significant rise (Z = 2.866, p = 0.004), suggesting intensification in daily rainfall amounts. Although the upward trend in annual total rainfall (PRCPTOT) was not statistically significant, it supports the overall pattern of increasing wetness. These findings underscore a rising risk of flash flooding and highlight the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies, early warning systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure planning in Kinshasa. The study provides vital evidence to inform policy and urban planning across tropical African cities.

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1991-2023年热带金沙萨城市降水趋势和气候变化的多指标探测

刚果民主共和国首都金沙萨越来越容易受到气候引起的极端降雨的影响，这威胁到城市的恢复能力。本研究使用一系列降雨指数（包括气候变化探测和指数专家组（ETCCDI）开发的降雨指数）和Mann-Kendall趋势检验，分析了33年（1991-2023）期间的日降水数据，以评估降雨强度、频率、持续时间和极端事件的变化。极端湿日数（edd）和简单日强度指数（SDII）呈显著上升趋势。EWD显著增加（Z = 2.657,p = 0.007），在2020年达到峰值15 d，为有记录以来的最高，表明强降水事件频率增加。SDII也显著上升（Z = 2.866,p = 0.004），表明日降雨量增强。尽管年总降雨量（PRCPTOT）的上升趋势在统计上不显著，但它支持了湿度增加的总体格局。这些调查结果强调了山洪暴发的风险不断上升，并强调了金沙萨迫切需要适应性水管理战略、早期预警系统和气候适应型基础设施规划。这项研究为热带非洲城市的政策和城市规划提供了重要证据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Results in Earth Sciences

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