Mythili Murugesan , Luke Reedman , Thomas S Brinsmead , Will Rifkin , Jay Gordon , Mallavarapu Megharaj
{"title":"Modelling least-cost technology pathways to decarbonise the New South Wales energy system by 2050","authors":"Mythili Murugesan , Luke Reedman , Thomas S Brinsmead , Will Rifkin , Jay Gordon , Mallavarapu Megharaj","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2022.100041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2022.100041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Deep decarbonisation pathways can enable the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia to reach a net-zero emissions reduction goal and contribute to global mitigation efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C by mid-century. This paper explores minimum cost solutions for achieving the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for NSW, using an Australian implementation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework. This paper investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target. It includes both a higher emissions reference case scenario and a scenario implementing the NSW state government's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the <em>NSW Climate Change Policy Framework</em>, consistent with the international <em>Paris Agreement</em> on climate change, with available and viable well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro and can entirely phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies along with policy supports are crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. In addition, electrification and energy efficiency improvements play a significant role in the end-use sector's energy consumption reduction in the coming decades. This paper shows that the electricity sector is the dominant contributor to emission reductions up to the year 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors are set to decarbonise later in the projection period (2030–2050) along this least-cost trajectory. However, the NSW government's aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved by 2039 by offsetting negative emissions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100041"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Planning third generation minigrids: Multi-objective optimization and brownfield investment approaches in modelling village-scale on-grid and off-grid energy systems","authors":"Nicolò Stevanato , Gianluca Pellecchia , Ivan Sangiorgio , Diana Shendrikova , Castro Antonio Soares , Riccardo Mereu , Emanuela Colombo","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Access to reliable and sustainable electricity is still precluded for a large share of global population living in rural areas of developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Hybrid microgrids are considered a suitable solution for providing affordable and reliable access to electricity to isolated communities. Properly planning and sizing such systems is although an aspect that can greatly influence the sustainability of the intervention, and the arrival to the market of the third generation minigrids poses new challenges to the process. Three main challenges are identified as pivotal for the proper sizing of new generation microgrids: arrival of the main grid, inappropriateness of Net Present Cost as only objective function in the strategy selection process, and necessity to operate on already existing minigrids. Such aspects are addressed in this work by proposing a methodological advancement to an existing open-source microgrid sizing model: a grid outage model alongside the definition of new constraints and variables for the optimization problem with grid-connected microgrids, a multi-objective optimization option, and a brown-field optimization option. The new version of the model is tested on real life case studies in rural Rwanda (greenfield) and Mozambique (brownfield), proving the profitability of grid-connected and grid-extension solutions for sufficiently low connection distances. Sensitivity analyses are performed to assess variations in system size, cost and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with respect to microgrid and grid connection parameters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100053"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Discursive trends and their socio-ecological implications in Senegal's renewable energy turn","authors":"van den Bold Mara","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100070","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>By 2025, Senegal's energy mix will have shifted from one reliant on heavy fuel oil to one consisting primarily of solar and wind energy as well as liquefied natural gas. The expectation is that this will lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions, more affordable power, and broad-based growth and development. Despite the necessity of a transition to renewable energy, scholarship in critical energy geographies has cautioned that such a transition could (re)produce socio-environmental injustices. Yet only a relatively small (but growing) number of studies in the political ecology of renewable energy literature examines how energy transitions are framed and justified as part of national-level narratives in the global South. Understanding this is critical because framing (renewable) energy in relation to national development objectives is a strategy central to the material development of renewable energy projects. Through a case study of Senegal, this paper examines the national-level discourses that underlie the country's turn towards utility-scale renewable energy by analyzing key documents and institutional interviews (carried out between 2018 and 2020). Findings show that a dominant group of development actors along with state institutions mobilizes a “grand narrative” on economic growth and poverty reduction vis a vis renewable energy development to facilitate a shift to renewables that rests on market logics, with questionable implications for equity and justice. The paper reflects on the implications of this narrative for the potential of a just energy transition in Senegal, as well as the broader theoretical and empirical implications of the research.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100070"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X23000260/pdfft?md5=1aa39cddc37aea131a2de0aa589fab4d&pid=1-s2.0-S2667095X23000260-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92073805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enhancing decarbonization of power generation through electricity trade in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Region","authors":"Constantinos Taliotis, Marios Karmellos, Nestor Fylaktos, Theodoros Zachariadis","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The region of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) is one with highly diverse socioeconomic conditions. It is split between countries with rich fossil fuel reserves, which are net energy exporters, and countries that rely to a large extent on energy imports to satisfy their domestic demand. Despite the abundant renewable energy resources, especially for wind and solar, in 2019 renewable energy accounted for merely 12% of the total electricity generation across the region. The present effort aims to highlight the potential benefits offered by a future enhancement in electricity trade between EMME countries; this could unlock the currently unexploited renewable energy resources of the region. A model representing the national electricity supply system of seventeen EMME countries is developed in a cost-optimisation modelling framework (OSeMOSYS). This is then used to project cost-optimal development pathways for the respective energy systems, by assessing alternative scenarios where regional trade is limited or enhanced. Comparison of a set of scenarios is conducted to quantify implications in terms of renewable energy deployment, greenhouse gas emissions and overall system costs. Results from the analysis indicate that in the absence of climate neutrality ambition across the region, electricity trade is limited to existing levels. However, the need for electricity trade increases when countries strive to decarbonise their electricity supply cost-effectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100060"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Profitability of biomass-based district heating considering different technology combinations and building flexibility","authors":"Carolin Monsberger, Klara Maggauer, Bernadette Fina, Demet Suna, Christian Fuchs, Benedikt Leitner","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>District heating can help to integrate renewable generation within the electricity domain and thus reach climate and energy goals by providing flexibility services and stabilizing the electricity grid. To determine the economic viability of such flexibility services, this work presents a profitability analysis of a central heat pump and/or combined heat and power unit within a biomass-based district heating network, conducted with a mixed-integer linear optimization model. Subsequent business model development for district heating utilities is conducted using the Business Model Canvas and the Odyssey 3.14 approach. Business model development and innovation are crucial to make use of the existing flexibility potential. The results show that the district heating utility's profitability as annual net profit increases in comparison with the status quo of biomass heat-only boilers when an additional heat pump is installed that can operate both in spot and balancing markets. Furthermore, all use cases including governmental support (for the heat pump, the combined heat and power unit or for both) prove to be economically favorable. The innovated business models indicate additional value for increased customer segments, thus enabling additional revenue streams for the district heating utility which can therefore promote the provision of flexibility in district heating.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100062"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region","authors":"Gabriele Cassetti, Alessia Elia, Maurizio Gargiulo, Alessandro Chiodi","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>For its abundant fossil resources, the Central Asia and Caspian region plays a strategic role in the energy security of major markets, such as Europe and China. However, this dependence on export, added to a firm reliance on fossil fuels for internal consumption, represents a significant challenge for the decarbonisation of the region.</p><p>In this paper, we perform an energy scenario analysis of four countries in the region (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), aiming to investigate how ambitious their regional decarbonisation targets for 2050 are in view of the Paris Agreement. We also develop a net-zero emission pathway to reinforce the regional climate ambition in the long term. As a novelty in the literature, the scenario analysis is co-designed with regional stakeholders through an engagement process that we have carried out from December 2020 to May 2021.</p><p>The analysis is performed with the TIMES-CAC energy system model. Results show that current regional energy policies are insufficient for achieving ambitious climate targets in the long term (2050 and beyond). The lack of a long-term strategy to decrease the dependence on export increases the influence of importing countries’ energy policies. Even in a decarbonised scenario, the role of China remains significant, while the dependence on the European Union decreases. To limit the pressure from other countries in the energy transition, the region should start implementing a rigorous energy planning process today to fill the “ambition gap” and achieve carbon neutrality in a 40-year horizon.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100048"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Derek Ehrnschwender , Saba Siddiki , Sanya Carley , Sean Nicholson-Crotty
{"title":"Exploring factors shaping transportation electrification in American cities","authors":"Derek Ehrnschwender , Saba Siddiki , Sanya Carley , Sean Nicholson-Crotty","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Transportation electrification is viewed as one way for governments to realize their commitment to transition away from fossil fuel use in pursuit of addressing environmental, energy, and security concerns. In this paper, we examine pathways that different American cities with varying degrees of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption and policy activity took to encourage PEV adoption in the late 2010s. Our research entails a comparative case study of eight U.S. cities. We rely on secondary data for these cities to identify PEV adoption and policy activity, and data from semi-structured interviews with 38 PEV stakeholders to understand how individual, policy, social, and infrastructural factors informed transportation electrification. Among our key findings is that transportation electrification in cities was streamlined through the work of PEV advocates that collaborated across sectors on a variety of projects. In addition to addressing the nuances of this diverse stakeholder collaboration, this paper solicits insights from these on-the-ground stakeholders on topics related to the pursuit of complementary but distinct policy activities at the state and local levels, and the importance of policy in encouraging PEV adoption.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100054"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lukas Braunreiter, Christina Marchand, Yann Blumer
{"title":"Exploring possible futures or reinforcing the status-quo? The use of model-based scenarios in the Swiss energy industry","authors":"Lukas Braunreiter, Christina Marchand, Yann Blumer","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Energy scenarios are often claimed to support decision-makers involved in the energy transition. However, an empirical understanding of how decision makers select, interpret, and use energy scenarios is largely missing. This study examined how high-level public utility executives in the energy sector, a key target audience of energy scenarios, perceive and interact with energy scenarios. Based on interviews with representatives of 20 Swiss utilities, we show that the use of scenarios is rarely part of a formalized process aimed at assisting decision-making processes. Instead, the selection of scenarios is often contingent on users’ perceptions of their legitimacy, credibility, and salience. While utility executives could rely on a wide variety of scenarios published by academic, corporate, and non-governmental organizations, they often focus on a limited set. Given the complexity of contemporary energy scenarios, which are often based on sophisticated energy system models, familiarity with publishing organizations and reporting styles is an important selection heuristic for users. This stands in contrast to the purpose and of stated key motivation of considering a broad range of plausible futures and their associated trade-offs. Our results suggest that to evaluate the impact of energy scenarios, social-scientific research also needs to consider user groups that are neither involved in participative modeling activities, nor collaborating with scenario developers in any other form. The usefulness of energy scenarios in these contexts and particularly their capacity to contribute to integrative deliberations on plausible and desirable energy futures is highly relevant, yet largely unknown.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100046"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jakob Wachsmuth , Philine Warnke , Ajay Gambhir , Sara Giarola , Konstantinos Koasidis , Shivika Mittal , Alexandros Nikas , Kathleen Vaillancourt , Haris Doukas
{"title":"Co-creating socio-technical scenarios for net-zero emission pathways: Comparison of five national case studies","authors":"Jakob Wachsmuth , Philine Warnke , Ajay Gambhir , Sara Giarola , Konstantinos Koasidis , Shivika Mittal , Alexandros Nikas , Kathleen Vaillancourt , Haris Doukas","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The extent to which modelled future pathways support effective policymaking for sustainability transitions has been questioned for a long time, with one major issue being the insufficient integration with the perspectives of policymakers and other stakeholders. One proposal to address this issue has been to set up facilitative dialogues with stakeholders to extend model-based pathways to socio-technical scenarios. This paper presents the results of a first series of such co-creation workshops, where stakeholders discussed bottlenecks for model-based decarbonisation pathways and ways to overcome these bottlenecks through tailored policy mixes. The workshops took place in five countries: Brazil, Canada, Greece, Germany, and the UK, each with a specific sector focus. In all five workshops, it became clear that substantial tensions exist between the “ideal” modelled decarbonisation pathways and the real-world situation on the ground. Also, adverse political framework conditions, uncertainty of future policies and resistance of powerful actors were emphasised as overarching bottlenecks in most workshops. At the same time, in several instances stakeholders pointed out important aspects of transformative trajectories that are not covered by the models. Some challenges and solutions stand out in all countries in spite of the strong diversity of contexts: allocation of capital towards massive investments into low-carbon solutions; infrastructure development for generation and transport of hydrogen, capture and use of CO<sub>2</sub> as well as electricity grid and storage adapted to renewable energy solutions; stakeholder and citizen dialogues, where agreement is reached on cornerstones of long-term decarbonisation trajectories; and demand-side measures complementing investments into low-carbon processes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100064"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alison Bailie , Marie Pied , Kathleen Vaillancourt , Olivier Bahn , Konstantinos Koasidis , Ajay Gambhir , Jakob Wachsmuth , Philine Warnke , Ben McWilliams , Haris Doukas , Alexandros Nikas
{"title":"Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis","authors":"Alison Bailie , Marie Pied , Kathleen Vaillancourt , Olivier Bahn , Konstantinos Koasidis , Ajay Gambhir , Jakob Wachsmuth , Philine Warnke , Ben McWilliams , Haris Doukas , Alexandros Nikas","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Canada has pledged ambitious emission targets, aiming to achieve a reduction of at least 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Being amongst the major economies with high dependence on fossil fuels, however, this path is far from straightforward. This research employs NATEM, a TIMES-based regional energy system model for North America with explicit representation of Canada, as well as knowledge produced and shared by stakeholders during a targeted workshop dedicated to identifying decarbonisation bottlenecks, to compare the paths to net zero on the basis of whether stakeholder perceptions are considered or not. We find that the path to net-zero is technically feasible but critically entails the use of negative emissions technologies, like (bioenergy with) carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture, in addition to the large-scale deployment of a large range of mitigation options already available today. Based on the feedback received from the stakeholders, around both the use of CCS-based technologies and the potential of demand-side measures such as modal shifts in transportation and better urban planning, we impose a set of additional conditions and restrictions. We find that the co-created net-zero pathway is also technically feasible while relying less on technologies that may trigger bottlenecks prioritised by the stakeholders; notably, despite yielding a similar emissions trajectory, it entails significantly different sectoral and technological configurations to the non-co-created net-zero scenario, requiring an acceleration of near-term abatement measures, mainly through electrification and quicker rollout of renewable and other clean energy technologies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100061"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}