Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition最新文献

{"title":"Stakeholder-driven scenario analysis of ambitious decarbonisation of the Russian economy","authors":"Alexander A. Shirov ,&nbsp;Andrey Yu. Kolpakov ,&nbsp;Ajay Gambhir ,&nbsp;Konstantinos Koasidis ,&nbsp;Alexandre C. Köberle ,&nbsp;Ben McWilliams ,&nbsp;Alexandros Nikas","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change mitigation entails different meanings for developed and developing countries. As a major emitting, high-income, developing economy that is largely dependant on hydrocarbons, Russia currently sits in the middle of the two groups, needing not only to drastically reduce emissions but also to ensure necessary economic growth to finance decarbonisation. This study explores two mitigation scenarios, one reflecting a cautious and the other a more ambitious decarbonisation pathway for Russia. These scenarios are co-created with a group of 135 national stakeholders, who inform the underlying assumptions based on their perceptions, expectations, and reservations: the more conservative scenario reflects the average of all input, while the ambitious scenario represents the optimistic end of the stakeholder input range. The two scenarios are modelled in CONTO, an input-output system of interconnected macro-structural calculations at the national level, to analyse the interplay between Russia's economy and decarbonisation progress, shedding light on the implications of mitigation for socioeconomic development. We find that, even for a country as dependant on hydrocarbons and under the most ambitious pathway that is still within experts’ realistic reach, Russia can achieve drastic reduction in absolute emissions and reach net-zero closely after 2050, while also achieving positive economic development in the long run. We highlight the need to prioritise a diverse set of mitigation options currently available and relevant to the Russian context, including energy efficiency and intensity improvements, electrification, and nuclear power, as well as to exploit the large potential lying within the Russian ecosystem's carbon sinks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100055"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Closing the Gap: Achieving U.S. climate goals beyond the Inflation Reduction Act","authors":"Katherine Jordan ,&nbsp;Peter Adams ,&nbsp;Paulina Jaramillo ,&nbsp;Nicholas Muller","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Inflation Reduction Act sets the stage for substantial greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States. However, analyses show that on its own, the IRA is insufficient to meet the nation's stated climate goals. We use an energy system optimization model to understand how the U.S. can build on the IRA to meet climate goals. We model two carbon taxes and a suite of efficiency, fuel, and technology standards, including a clean electricity standard (CES), electrification standards for commercial and residential buildings, a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) standard, and a clean fuel standard for industry. We compare these three policy scenarios to the U.S.’s stated climate goals (Nationally Determined Contribution). The two carbon taxes and the suite of standards achieve the GHG emissions goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, but no scenario reaches net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Notably, we find that the average GHG abatement cost under the modeled standards is comparable to a carbon tax set at ∼$200/ton, and both policies achieve similar emissions reductions. Temoa's cost-minimization structure results in the carbon tax always reducing emissions more cheaply than a set of standards; but the similarity in cost emphasizes the near-optimal second-best nature of well-designed standards.” The marginal cost of GHG emissions reduction in each scenario is less than 2% of total system costs. While the modeling results indicate that meeting climate targets may still be possible, they demonstrate that doing so will require rapid and sustained deployment of zero-emission technologies across the energy system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100065"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Feasibility trade-offs in decarbonising the power sector with high coal dependence: The case of Korea","authors":"Minwoo Hyun ,&nbsp;Aleh Cherp ,&nbsp;Jessica Jewell ,&nbsp;Yeong Jae Kim ,&nbsp;Jiyong Eom","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Decarbonising the power sector requires feasible strategies for the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and the expansion of low-carbon sources. This study assesses the feasibility of plausible decarbonisation scenarios for the power sector in the Republic of Korea through 2050 and 2060. Our power plant stock accounting model results show that achieving zero emissions from the power sector by the mid-century requires either an ambitious expansion of renewables backed by gas-fired generation equipped with carbon capture and storage or a significant increase of nuclear power. The first strategy implies replicating and maintaining for decades the maximum growth rates of solar power achieved in leading countries and becoming an early and ambitious adopter of the carbon capture and storage technology. The alternative expansion of nuclear power has historical precedents in Korea and other countries but may not be acceptable in the current political and regulatory environment. Hence, our analysis shows that the potential hurdles for decarbonisation in the power sector in Korea are formidable but manageable and should be overcome over the coming years, which gives hope to other similar countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100050"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reduction of solar photovoltaic system output variability with geographical aggregation","authors":"M.R. Aldeman ,&nbsp;J.H. Jo ,&nbsp;D.G. Loomis ,&nbsp;B. Krull","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Variable power outputs are one of the largest challenges facing the widespread adoption of renewable energy systems. The inherent variability of solar resources makes it challenging to integrate large amounts of solar energy into the electric grid. However, the weather factors that influence solar production are often local in nature. In this study, eleven solar photovoltaic systems with publicly available historical data were identified for analysis. The systems are located within a circle with a diameter of approximately 130 km. The historical power output data for each system were acquired, and quality control measures were applied. A comparison is made between the variability of the time-varying power output from individual systems compared to the variability of the aggregated output of the eleven systems combined. Next, the effect of increasing the geographical spread of the aggregated systems is investigated. This is done by comparing the variability of the aggregated time-varying power output from closely-spaced systems against the variability of the aggregated time-varying power output from systems spread out over a large geographical area. Next, the correlations between the outputs from each of the individual systems are explored. The data show that the correlation decreases by approximately 0.1 for each 80 km of separation distance. Finally, the historical solar output data is used to define the “expected output”, and the deviation from this expected output is compared for individual systems and various sets of aggregated systems. The four aggregated systems located far apart are 31% more likely to have a combined output that is close to their expected output, defined as having a normalized power output deviation less than or equal to 0.2 kW/kW. Furthermore, the four aggregated systems located far apart are 54% less likely to have a combined output that is significantly different from their expected output, defined as having a normalized power output deviation greater than or equal to 0.4 kW/kW.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100052"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The future role of thermal energy storage in 100% renewable electricity systems","authors":"Rhys Jacob ,&nbsp;Maximilian Hoffmann ,&nbsp;Jann Michael Weinand ,&nbsp;Jochen Linßen ,&nbsp;Detlef Stolten ,&nbsp;Michael Müller","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100059","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Modeling tools and technologies that will allow reaching decarbonization goals in the most cost-effective way are imperative for the transition to a climate-friendly energy system. This includes models which are able to optimize the design of energy systems with a large number of spatially distributed energy generation sources coupled with adequate short, medium, and long duration storage technologies. Solar photovoltaic and wind energy are likely to become the backbone in a future greenhouse gas neutral energy system and will require low-cost, geographically independent storage technologies in order to balance their intermittent availability. As an alternative to lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen systems, thermal energy storage coupled with a power block (e.g., Carnot batteries, pumped thermal storage, etc.) could be a promising option. Therefore, the current study aims to investigate the influence of renewable generation profiles coupled with alternate storage options (i.e., Li-ion and hydrogen cavern) on the installed capacity of electric-to-thermal-to-electric systems using a 100% renewable electricity system in Germany as a case study. The analyses reveal that Carnot batteries complement established and near-future storage technologies, as they could fill the gap between daily storage such as batteries and seasonal storage such as hydrogen salt caverns. Furthermore, Carnot Batteries could offer multiple options for heat integration further increasing their potential.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100059"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Abolition solarities: Theorizing antiracist and anticapitalist solar energy insurrections","authors":"Ryan Stock","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We arrive at an auspicious inflection point in the proliferation of solar photovoltaic systems. Apprised of particular and patterned racial and gendered solar injustices across disparate energy geographies, scholars and practitioners must harness solar power in the service of the total abolition of racial power structures that enshrine inequalities in colonial-capitalist accumulation. Antiracist and anticapitalist approaches to solar interventions can potentially transform social relations and empower the victims of energy injustices. Abolition solarities avail emancipation and redistribution through dismantling white supremacist processes and logics that structure energy regimes. How can solar simultaneously stitch translocal and transnational nets of safety and solidarity among subaltern architects and inheritors of abolition democracy? Aspiring to the existential obligation to change everything, let us wire solar to elucidate emancipation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100063"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Techno-economic viability of renewable electricity surplus to green hydrogen and biomethane, for a future sustainable energy system: Hints from Southern Italy","authors":"Alessandro Giocoli ,&nbsp;Vincenzo Motola ,&nbsp;Nicolae Scarlat ,&nbsp;Nicola Pierro ,&nbsp;Sebastiano Dipinto","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100051","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The fast deployment of renewable energy in Italy by 2030, according to the National Energy and Climate Plan, will lead to renewable electricity surplus mainly in Southern Italy where adequate energy storage is not currently available. In this paper, a Power to Green Hydrogen followed by a methanation process is proposed to accelerate decarbonisation and the integration of higher shares of variable renewable energies in Southern Italy. Green hydrogen can be injected directly into the natural gas grid or used to produce biomethane that can be injected afterwards into the natural gas grid. The main results of our assessment are: 1) 819 – 1,638 Mm³ green hydrogen that could be produced by water electrolysis using the renewable electricity surplus; 2) 160 Mm³ biomethane produced through biogas upgrading and 3) 14 – 117 Mm³ additional biomethane produced through methanation by using biogenic carbon dioxide from biogas upgrading. The approach would enable a) green hydrogen production cost competitive with grey hydrogen (44 €/MWh) only when the electrolysis system uses electricity for free and its load factor is above 1,800 h/y and 5,000 h/y for the optimistic and conservative case, respectively; b) biomethane production cost via biogas upgrading (about 58 €₂₀₂₀/MWh); and c) biomethane production cost via methanation competitive versus natural gas price (30 €/MWh) only when using electricity for free and operates at full load for over 5,400 h/y in the optimistic case.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100051"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Critical elements for a successful energy transition: A systematic review","authors":"Mashael Kamran ,&nbsp;Marco Raugei ,&nbsp;Allan Hutchinson","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The transition to a low-carbon energy future requires large amounts of many raw materials. Some of these materials are deemed critical in terms of their limited availability, concentrated supply chain networks, associated environmental impact, and various social issues. Acknowledging the significant dependency on raw materials for future energy scenarios, this paper presents a systematic review of the existing literature to identify the barriers, solutions proposed and the current research gaps associated with the supply of a range of critical chemical elements. The focus was mainly on evaluating supply risk in light of raw material availability and contemporary extraction technologies. Results indicate that a transition to a low-carbon energy system is possible, but will require efforts to address supply concerns, and strategic planning. A key risk mitigation strategy is increasing material circularity, especially to cope with the growth in demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries, platinum used in fuel cells and electrolysers, iridium used in electrolysers and dysprosium used in permanent magnets. Copper was found to be possibly the most concerning critical element due to the expected demand from developing nations in addition to the demand for the energy transition. The geopolitical, social, and environmental risks for lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements and platinum group metals could also hinder future energy security, as demand for these elements continues to grow.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100068"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50195066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling least-cost technology pathways to decarbonise the New South Wales energy system by 2050","authors":"Mythili Murugesan ,&nbsp;Luke Reedman ,&nbsp;Thomas S Brinsmead ,&nbsp;Will Rifkin ,&nbsp;Jay Gordon ,&nbsp;Mallavarapu Megharaj","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2022.100041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2022.100041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Deep decarbonisation pathways can enable the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia to reach a net-zero emissions reduction goal and contribute to global mitigation efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C by mid-century. This paper explores minimum cost solutions for achieving the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for NSW, using an Australian implementation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework. This paper investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target. It includes both a higher emissions reference case scenario and a scenario implementing the NSW state government's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the <em>NSW Climate Change Policy Framework</em>, consistent with the international <em>Paris Agreement</em> on climate change, with available and viable well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro and can entirely phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies along with policy supports are crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. In addition, electrification and energy efficiency improvements play a significant role in the end-use sector's energy consumption reduction in the coming decades. This paper shows that the electricity sector is the dominant contributor to emission reductions up to the year 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors are set to decarbonise later in the projection period (2030–2050) along this least-cost trajectory. However, the NSW government's aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved by 2039 by offsetting negative emissions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100041"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Planning third generation minigrids: Multi-objective optimization and brownfield investment approaches in modelling village-scale on-grid and off-grid energy systems","authors":"Nicolò Stevanato ,&nbsp;Gianluca Pellecchia ,&nbsp;Ivan Sangiorgio ,&nbsp;Diana Shendrikova ,&nbsp;Castro Antonio Soares ,&nbsp;Riccardo Mereu ,&nbsp;Emanuela Colombo","doi":"10.1016/j.rset.2023.100053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Access to reliable and sustainable electricity is still precluded for a large share of global population living in rural areas of developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Hybrid microgrids are considered a suitable solution for providing affordable and reliable access to electricity to isolated communities. Properly planning and sizing such systems is although an aspect that can greatly influence the sustainability of the intervention, and the arrival to the market of the third generation minigrids poses new challenges to the process. Three main challenges are identified as pivotal for the proper sizing of new generation microgrids: arrival of the main grid, inappropriateness of Net Present Cost as only objective function in the strategy selection process, and necessity to operate on already existing minigrids. Such aspects are addressed in this work by proposing a methodological advancement to an existing open-source microgrid sizing model: a grid outage model alongside the definition of new constraints and variables for the optimization problem with grid-connected microgrids, a multi-objective optimization option, and a brown-field optimization option. The new version of the model is tested on real life case studies in rural Rwanda (greenfield) and Mozambique (brownfield), proving the profitability of grid-connected and grid-extension solutions for sufficiently low connection distances. Sensitivity analyses are performed to assess variations in system size, cost and CO₂ emissions with respect to microgrid and grid connection parameters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101071,"journal":{"name":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100053"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50199301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}