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A review of the synthetic transport fuels as a solution for carbon neutrality 合成运输燃料作为碳中和解决方案的综述
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100355
Rodica Niculescu , Adrian Clenci , Alireza Shirneshan , Mihaela Năstase
{"title":"A review of the synthetic transport fuels as a solution for carbon neutrality","authors":"Rodica Niculescu ,&nbsp;Adrian Clenci ,&nbsp;Alireza Shirneshan ,&nbsp;Mihaela Năstase","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100355","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the current context in which greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, global warming, and poor energy security are paramount, finding new sources of sustainable, renewable energy has become a top priority. The transportation sector is accountable for a significant percentage of GHG emissions. Therefore, the decarbonization of transport is a priority.</div><div>Today, the significance of energy in economics and politics is undeniable. As a result, the production of alternative fuels is not merely an option but a necessity. The objective of this review is to outline the findings of recent studies regarding potential methods for attaining carbon neutrality in the transportation sector through the utilization of synthetic fuels. This review presents the potential of combining fossil fuel sources with carbon capture and storage technologies to reduce the greenhouse effect. The main CO<sub>2</sub> capture technologies, such as post-combustion, pre-combustion, oxyfuel combustion, and direct air capture (DAC), were also explained. The review also discusses ways of using the captured CO<sub>2</sub> to obtain value-added products, including fuels, through various approaches like electrochemical, thermal, biochemical, chemo-enzymatic, and photocatalytic methods. However, the review highlights that catalysts are an area where research must continue intensively in the future. Furthermore, the review evaluates the combustion characteristics, performance, and emissions of engines fueled with synthetic fuels, such as Fischer-Tropsch diesel and oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OMEx), in comparison to fossil diesel fuel. The challenges related to the production cost estimation of these synthetic fuels are also presented, as they involve economic uncertainties and a large number of parameters. The review also discusses the life cycle analysis of synthetic fuels produced from CO<sub>2</sub>, considering the sources and processes for obtaining hydrogen and CO<sub>2</sub>, their transport and storage, the production processes of synthetic fuels, and their transport and use. In addition, the review addresses the barriers and opportunities for the commercial deployment of synthetic transport fuels and the policy implications, as well as presenting several companies around the world that have begun to develop ambitious synthetic fuel manufacturing projects as an alternative to fossil fuels. Finally, the review presents the challenges and perspectives of synthetic transport fuels as a solution for carbon neutrality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100355"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sustainable approaches to NOx emissions: Capture and utilization technologies 氮氧化物排放的可持续途径:捕获和利用技术
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100356
Ikram Moulay , Kyumin Jang
{"title":"Sustainable approaches to NOx emissions: Capture and utilization technologies","authors":"Ikram Moulay ,&nbsp;Kyumin Jang","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100356","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The emission of nitrogen oxides (NO<sub>x</sub>) stemming from diverse industrial processes and transportation, pose significant challenges to air quality, climate change, and human health. This comprehensive review offers a thorough exploration of NO<sub>x</sub> capture and utilization technologies, their mechanisms, current scale-up efforts, and future prospects. Key findings provide insights on the underlying mechanisms involved with a focus on selectivity, efficiency, and regeneration. Additionally, NO<sub>x</sub> utilization strategies, including NO<sub>x</sub> to nitrate conversion and NO<sub>x</sub> to ammonia synthesis, are assessed for their environmental and economic benefits.</div><div>The paper showcases ongoing industrial-scale implementations across diverse sectors, such as power generation, chemical manufacturing, and wastewater treatment, underscoring the practical feasibility and potential for economic benefits. Environmental and economic impact assessments are scrutinized to evaluate the full benefits of these technologies. Challenges and limitations in scaling up NO<sub>x</sub> capture and utilization, including engineering integration, space constraints, and safety considerations, are addressed. The critical role of multidisciplinary collaboration between academia, industry, and policy-makers is emphasized. In conclusion, this paper offers a roadmap for leveraging NO<sub>x</sub> capture and utilization technologies as transformative solutions to NO<sub>x</sub> emissions challenges. As we navigate this journey toward a more sustainable future, the nexus of scientific inquiry, innovation, and collaborative action holds the promise of a world where NO<sub>x</sub> emissions are not merely controlled but are also a valuable resource driving progress and environmental stewardship.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100356"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144557497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sheet-like MoO₃ nanostructures with improved charge storage: Relationships among structural, optical, and electrochemical properties 具有改进电荷存储的片状MoO₃纳米结构:结构、光学和电化学性质之间的关系
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100352
A.P. Nagendra Babu , N. Pradeep , C.G. Renuka
{"title":"Sheet-like MoO₃ nanostructures with improved charge storage: Relationships among structural, optical, and electrochemical properties","authors":"A.P. Nagendra Babu ,&nbsp;N. Pradeep ,&nbsp;C.G. Renuka","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The molybdenum trioxide (MoO₃) nanosheets were synthesized via thermal decomposition and thoroughly characterized for their structural, morphological, optical, and electrochemical properties. X-ray diffraction (XRD) confirmed orthorhombic phase purity with crystallite sizes of 69–97 nm. Raman and FTIR spectroscopy revealed key Mo–O and Mo<img>O vibrational modes, while X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) confirmed oxidation states. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) showed sheet-like morphology, and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) validated elemental composition. UV–vis spectroscopy indicated direct and indirect band gaps of 2.800–2.977 eV and 2.566–2.940 eV, respectively. Electrochemical performance, assessed via cyclic voltammetry (CV), galvanostatic charging-discharging (GCD), and electrochemical impedance spectrometry (EIS), demonstrated excellent capacitance (217.30 F/g), energy density (21.47 Wh/kg), and power density (2118.65 W/kg). When integrated into coin cells, MoO₃ nanosheets exhibited a specific capacitance of 48.39 F/g, with an energy density of 31.93 Wh/kg and power density of 2903.26 W/kg. These findings underscore their strong potential in advanced energy storage applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100352"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144535633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating pyrolysis kinetics of lignocellulosic agro-waste (coconut shell) and plastics (PP & HDPE) through distributed activation energy model 利用分布式活化能模型研究木质纤维素农业废弃物(椰壳)和塑料(PP和HDPE)的热解动力学
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100354
Harsh V. Rambhia, Vikram S. Chatake, Aniruddha B. Pandit
{"title":"Investigating pyrolysis kinetics of lignocellulosic agro-waste (coconut shell) and plastics (PP & HDPE) through distributed activation energy model","authors":"Harsh V. Rambhia,&nbsp;Vikram S. Chatake,&nbsp;Aniruddha B. Pandit","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the critical need to manage plastic waste and explore alternative energy sources due to their intertwined impacts on environmental degradation and climate change. By investigating the pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass (coconut shells) and thermoplastic polymers (polypropylene [PP] and high-density polyethylene [HDPE]) using Thermo-Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) and Distributed Activation Energy Model (DAEM). The research aims to optimize the pyrolysis condition for producing valuable fuels and chemicals. The study evaluates activation energy, possible reaction mechanisms, and process efficiency, offering insights into sustainable energy production from waste materials. The apparent average activation energy obtained for coconut shell pyrolysis ranges between 187.84 and 199.31 kJ/mol, while for plastic it ranges between 169.15 and 360.04 kJ/mol.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100354"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Facile preparation of CoNiS/MXene/polypyrrole electrocatalyst with mischcrystal-amorphous interfaces for hydrogen evolution reaction 用混合晶-非晶界面制备CoNiS/MXene/聚吡咯析氢电催化剂
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100338
Hongxiang Li, Ying Su, Tong Guo, Han Zheng, Bo Sun, Chunhua Yu, Jun Cao, Qiaoling Li, Weimeng Si
{"title":"Facile preparation of CoNiS/MXene/polypyrrole electrocatalyst with mischcrystal-amorphous interfaces for hydrogen evolution reaction","authors":"Hongxiang Li,&nbsp;Ying Su,&nbsp;Tong Guo,&nbsp;Han Zheng,&nbsp;Bo Sun,&nbsp;Chunhua Yu,&nbsp;Jun Cao,&nbsp;Qiaoling Li,&nbsp;Weimeng Si","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electrocatalytic hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) offers a sustainable pathway for clean hydrogen production, while the developing of non-Pt catalysts with high activity and durability remains challenging. This work presents a CoNiS/MXene/polypyrrole (PPy) composite synthesized via a novel 2-step electrodeposition method, enabling precise control over morphology and interfacial properties. The catalyst achieves a low overpotential of 147 mV at 10 mA cm<sup>−2</sup> in alkaline media, rivaling state-of-the-art non-Pt HER catalysts. Remarkably, it retains 99% activity after 2000 CV cycles and 12 h of continuous operation, demonstrating exceptional stability. Where, the mischcrystal-amorphous interfaces of CoNiS provides abundant active sites for HER. And the 3D-continuous structure of MXene/PPy offers a large specific surface area and efficient electron-transfer pathways, promoting high-speed charge transport and mass diffusion. The interfacial coupling between CoNiS and the MXene/PPy matrix was considered facilitating efficient charge transfer across their heterojunction interfaces. This interaction effectively prevents the agglomeration and structural degradation of CoNiS nanosheets during the electrocatalytic process, thereby significantly enhancing the stability of the catalyst. The synergistic effects of CoNiS, PPy, and MXene result in an optimized electronic structure and enhanced catalytic kinetics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100338"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144548819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A trade-off between line hardening and dynamic line rating by a new convex optimization model for resilient micro-grid-oriented expansion planning of reconfigurable smart distribution networks incorporated with renewable energy sources 基于凸优化模型的可重构可再生能源智能配电网弹性微网扩展规划中线路硬化与动态线路等级的权衡
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100351
Saeed Behzadi, Amir Bagheri
{"title":"A trade-off between line hardening and dynamic line rating by a new convex optimization model for resilient micro-grid-oriented expansion planning of reconfigurable smart distribution networks incorporated with renewable energy sources","authors":"Saeed Behzadi,&nbsp;Amir Bagheri","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100351","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100351","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Because of budget and right-of-way limitations, smart-grid technologies (SGTs) are widely incorporated in today’s distribution systems in order to satisfy the load demand growth and meet the network’s operational and reinforcement planning requirements. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a resilient expansion planning model based on a cost-effective comparison between dynamic line rating (DLR) and reinforcement of line conductors through low probability and high impact (LPHI) outages. Besides lines hardening and installing DLR-measuring devices, the planning options include optimal formation of radial reconfigurable micro-grids (MGs). The presented approach considers the total cost (including construction costs, operational costs, and CO<sub>2</sub> emission costs) and load shedding as the objective functions within a multi-objective optimization, and takes into account all the operational constraints and AC power flow equations. The developed model is constituted as a convex mixed-integer quadratic-constrained programming (MIQCP) which is implemented in GAMS and applied to the IEEE 24-bus system under different experiments. Furthermore, the Pareto optimization scenarios have been considered and the optimal solution is selected by the fuzzy-satisfying method. The simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of the conducted model. According to the optimal Pareto algorithm solution, the resiliency index is guaranteed to be more than 92% in the face of LPHI disasters. For practitioners, this work provides a decision-making toolkit to weigh DLR against conventional reinforcement, while policymakers can leverage the emissions-reliability trade-offs to design incentive programs. The proposed MG reconfiguration also offers a blueprint for outage response in disaster-prone regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100351"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predict the performance of hydrogen fueled vehicle and their refueling station through the data analysis based approach 采用基于数据分析的方法对氢燃料汽车及其加气站的性能进行预测
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100349
Vikas Khare , Monica Bhatia
{"title":"Predict the performance of hydrogen fueled vehicle and their refueling station through the data analysis based approach","authors":"Vikas Khare ,&nbsp;Monica Bhatia","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100349","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100349","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The widespread adoption of hydrogen-fueled vehicles (HFVs) and the deployment of Hydrogen Refueling Stations (HRS) hinge on the ability to accurately predict system performance and ensure operational reliability. This study proposes a novel predictive framework integrating mathematical modeling, state-space analysis, and advanced data mining techniques, supported by reliability analysis, to evaluate the performance of HFVs and their associated refueling infrastructure. Utilizing a public dataset of 500 real-time operational data points, key performance indicators are statistically analyzed. A significant negative correlation (<em>r</em> = −0.56) between hydrogen consumption and maximum vehicle range is identified, highlighting that improved hydrogen efficiency directly extends travel range. The average maximum range is 555.21 km, with a standard deviation of 87.09 km and a median of 563.65 km, indicating strong consistency across vehicles. These findings underscore the importance of optimizing fuel efficiency to enhance system sustainability and inform the design and operation of next-generation hydrogen mobility solutions. The proposed approach offers a robust foundation for performance forecasting, infrastructure planning, and policy development in hydrogen-based transportation systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100349"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144535634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to: Understanding the impact of the gas diffusion layer structure on catalyst utilization in the PEM water electrolyzer. Next Energy 8 (2025) 100319 理解气体扩散层结构对PEM水电解槽中催化剂利用的影响的更正。新能源8 (2025)100319
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100358
Yuyao Huang , Samuel Williams , Tae Wook Heo , Aaron Marshall , Brandon Wood , John Kennedy , James Metson , Meng Wai Woo , Jingjing Liu
{"title":"Corrigendum to: Understanding the impact of the gas diffusion layer structure on catalyst utilization in the PEM water electrolyzer. Next Energy 8 (2025) 100319","authors":"Yuyao Huang ,&nbsp;Samuel Williams ,&nbsp;Tae Wook Heo ,&nbsp;Aaron Marshall ,&nbsp;Brandon Wood ,&nbsp;John Kennedy ,&nbsp;James Metson ,&nbsp;Meng Wai Woo ,&nbsp;Jingjing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100358","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100358"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of occupancy behavior on building energy efficiency: What’s next in detection and monitoring technologies? 使用行为对建筑节能的影响:检测和监控技术的下一步是什么?
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100350
Wenjie Song, John Calautit
{"title":"Impact of occupancy behavior on building energy efficiency: What’s next in detection and monitoring technologies?","authors":"Wenjie Song,&nbsp;John Calautit","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100350","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100350","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Buildings account for a substantial portion of global energy consumption, and research indicates that occupant behavior can significantly influence energy use and building performance. This study provides a comprehensive review of recent progress in occupancy detection and monitoring technologies, highlighting how advanced methods can facilitate more accurate, occupant-driven energy management. Traditional sensor-based techniques such as CO₂ concentration monitoring, passive infrared (PIR) sensors, radio frequency (RF) signals, and indirectly, smart meter data are examined alongside more innovative, vision-based approaches incorporating deep learning and computer vision. Particular attention is paid to data-driven methods, including probabilistic models such as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), classical machine learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and deep learning architectures such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), all of which have demonstrated high accuracy in both laboratory and real-world settings. Emerging transformer-based fusion architectures and vision-language models (VLMs) are also discussed, highlighting their potential for capturing complex spatial-temporal occupancy patterns and enabling multimodal, interpretable occupancy detection. Despite their potential, numerous challenges remain. Privacy, data security, and user acceptance concerns must be addressed to ensure broad adoption; there is also a recognized need to improve the reliability of detection under varying environmental conditions. Personalization and adaptability emerge as key themes, particularly in multi-occupant contexts, while multi-sensor data fusion promises to enhance detection stability and reduce false positives. Finally, economic feasibility considerations such as installation costs and associated energy savings achieved through occupancy-driven heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC ) optimization are crucial for large-scale implementation. By synthesizing current methods, identifying research gaps, and proposing future directions, this review offers guidance for researchers and practitioners aiming to develop smart, occupant-centric building systems that balance energy efficiency, comfort, and privacy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100350"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144581083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring the AI electricity crisis scenario: A case study of Texas-ERCOT 探索人工智能电力危机情景:以德克萨斯州- ercot为例
Next Energy Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100341
Rémi Paccou , Fons Wijnhoven
{"title":"Exploring the AI electricity crisis scenario: A case study of Texas-ERCOT","authors":"Rémi Paccou ,&nbsp;Fons Wijnhoven","doi":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nxener.2025.100341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article explores artificial intelligence (AI) effects on data center electricity consumption by answering the question if and when AI growth may cause an electricity crisis. We study this through combining 3 AI demand electricity and 3 electricity supply scenarios to 9 scenarios and simulating these for estimating their longer-term outcomes on anticipated reserve margins (ARM). These scenarios contain multiple theoretical constructs for explaining AI impact on data centers via a system dynamics narrative, i.e. non-linear predictions with feedback mechanisms through time. We apply our system dynamics simulation model to a specific region because possible conflicts between data center electricity demand and electricity supply capacity manifest themselves only at a regional level. As a case for our simulations, we selected Texas-Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT): an electricity region covering most of the state of Texas. Being a very energy rich area, we see only a few conditions in which an AI electricity crisis, i.e., an ARM below the reference margin level (RML), may happen in Texas-ERCOT, but a decline of the ARM from 31.2% in 2025 to between 7 (which is below the needed 13.75% RML) and 25% in 2030 with data centers taking about 21–26% of all electricity available may likely happen around 2030. The application of our method in other regions may give very different outcomes, but also the Texas-ERCOT region is not free of risks. While this paper focuses on direct AI impacts, it also suggests the need for future studies exploring the <em>indirect</em> effects of increased data center usage on the economy, society, and ecology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100957,"journal":{"name":"Next Energy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100341"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144489450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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