Data Science and Management最新文献_第9页

Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 in early 2020 2020年初评估COVID-19的传播风险

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.004

Shengjie Lai , Isaac I. Bogoch , Nick W. Ruktanonchai , Alexander Watts , Xin Lu , Weizhong Yang , Hongjie Yu , Kamran Khan , Andrew J. Tatem

{"title":"Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 in early 2020","authors":"Shengjie Lai , Isaac I. Bogoch , Nick W. Ruktanonchai , Alexander Watts , Xin Lu , Weizhong Yang , Hongjie Yu , Kamran Khan , Andrew J. Tatem","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, named as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO). This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread at the early stage of the transmission. A series of connectivity and risk analyses based on domestic and international travel networks were conducted using historical aggregated mobile phone data and air passenger itinerary data. We found that the cordon sanitaire of the primary city was likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city, with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that there were 59,912 international air passengers, of which 834 (95% uncertainty interval: 478–1,349) had COVID-19 infection, with a strong correlation seen between the predicted risks of importation and the number of imported cases found. Given the limited understanding of emerging infectious diseases in the very early stages of outbreaks, our approaches and findings in assessing travel patterns and risk of transmission can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design for new COVID-19 waves caused by variants of concern and future pandemics to effectively limit transmission beyond its initial extent.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000340/pdfft?md5=a48e2e7bc12044a09382b68edcb847d2&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000340-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79326169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Analysis of commodity traceability service effects on the purchase behavior of consumers using an evolutionary game model 用演化博弈模型分析商品可追溯服务对消费者购买行为的影响

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.003

Jingyang Liu , Shizhong Ai , Rong Du , Cathal M. Brugha

{"title":"Analysis of commodity traceability service effects on the purchase behavior of consumers using an evolutionary game model","authors":"Jingyang Liu , Shizhong Ai , Rong Du , Cathal M. Brugha","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Blockchain-based commodity traceability is an emerging technology developed in recent years; it plays a vital role in monitoring product quality and responding to product safety problems. Considering the perceived value of product traceability for consumers and the cost of using blockchain technology, determining whether merchants adopt blockchain-based commodity traceability technology deserves attention. Based on the information asymmetry between consumers and merchants, this paper establishes a two-party evolutionary game model to understand whether merchants enable the commodity traceability function and whether consumers choose to be involved in the commodity traceability relationship based on the Foote, Cone, and Belding grid theory. The model explores the influence boundary of merchants enabling the commodity traceability function for consumers with different degrees of involvement in purchasing behavior. The results show that traceability cost, consumer involvement, commodity price, and the value-added traceability nature of different commodities affect the evolution results. These results indicate that businesses need to constantly reduce the cost of traceability to improve consumer involvement and the perceived value of commodity traceability. Businesses must identify consumers with different involvement levels, and commodities with different traceability levels should provide targeted services for consumers and commodities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000339/pdfft?md5=1e2dbfeacadd651e244697ca88d31cc5&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000339-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74983402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Effective arithmetic optimization algorithm with probabilistic search strategy for function optimization problems 基于概率搜索策略的函数优化问题的有效算法

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.002

Lu Peng , Chaohao Sun , Wenli Wu

引用次数: 9

China futures price forecasting based on online search and information transfer 基于网上搜索和信息传递的中国期货价格预测

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.002

Jingyi Liang, Guozhu Jia

{"title":"China futures price forecasting based on online search and information transfer","authors":"Jingyi Liang, Guozhu Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The synchronicity effect between the financial market and online response for time-series forecasting is an important task with wide applications. This study combines data from the Baidu index (BDI), Google trends (GT), and transfer entropy (TE) to forecast a wide range of futures prices with a focus on China. A forecasting model based on a hybrid gray wolf optimizer (GWO), convolutional neural network (CNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) is developed. First, Baidu and Google dual-platform search data were selected and constructed as Internet-based consumer price index (ICPI) using principal component analysis. Second, TE is used to quantify the information between online behavior and futures markets. Finally, the effective Internet-based consumer price index (ICPI) and TE are introduced into the GWO-CNN-LSTM model to forecast the daily prices of corn, soybean, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), egg, and rebar futures. The results show that the GWO-CNN-LSTM model has a significant improvement in predicting future prices. Internet-based CPI built on Baidu and Google platforms has a high degree of real-time performance and reduces the platform and language bias of the search data. Our proposed framework can provide predictive decision support for government leaders, market investors, and production activities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000376/pdfft?md5=700142358e5a3516b1d3f96c23074de9&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000376-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80013768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

ACR-MLM: a privacy-preserving framework for anonymous and confidential rewarding in blockchain-based multi-level marketing ACR-MLM:基于区块链的多层次营销中匿名和保密奖励的隐私保护框架

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.003

Saeed Banaeian Far , Azadeh Imani Rad , Maryam Rajabzadeh Asaar

{"title":"ACR-MLM: a privacy-preserving framework for anonymous and confidential rewarding in blockchain-based multi-level marketing","authors":"Saeed Banaeian Far , Azadeh Imani Rad , Maryam Rajabzadeh Asaar","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Network marketing is a trading technique that provides companies with the opportunity to increase sales. With the increasing number of Internet-based purchases, several threats are increasingly observed in this field, such as user privacy violations, company owner (CO) fraud, the changing of sold products’ information, and the scalability of selling networks. This study presents the concept of a blockchain-based market called ACR-MLM that functions based on the multi-level marketing (MLM) model, through which registered users receive anonymous and confidential rewards for their own and their subgroups’ sales. Applying a public blockchain as the ACR-MLM framework’s infrastructure solves existing problems in MLM-based markets, such as CO fraud (against the government or its users), user privacy violations (obtaining their real names or subgroup users), and scalability (when vast numbers of users have been registered). To provide confidentiality and scalability to the ACR-MLM framework, hierarchical identity-based encryption (HIBE) was applied with a functional encryption (FE) scheme. Finally, the security of ACR-MLM is analyzed using the random oracle (RO) model and then evaluated.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000388/pdfft?md5=446295a2eaf0eb9cec41954416bb906d&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000388-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77262685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

A new prediction NN framework design for individual stock based on the industry environment 基于行业环境的个股预测神经网络框架设计

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.001

Qing Zhu , Jianhua Che , Yuze Li , Renxian Zuo

{"title":"A new prediction NN framework design for individual stock based on the industry environment","authors":"Qing Zhu , Jianhua Che , Yuze Li , Renxian Zuo","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There is a research gap in accurately predicting an individual stock’s finances from industry environment factors. Therefore, to predict trading strategies for a target stock’s closing price, this study constructed a prediction module and an environment module for a hybrid variational mode decomposition and stacked gated recurrent unit (VMD-StackedGRU) model, with individual stock information input into the prediction module and industry information input into the environment module. The results from the U.S. banking industry generalization tests proved that the proposed model could significantly improve prediction performances and that the environment module did not play an important role and was not equal to the prediction module. The hybrid neural network framework was a new application for financial price predictions based on an industry environment. Profitable trading strategies and accurate predictions can be valuable in hedging against market volatility risk and in assuring significant returns for investors and investment institutions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000364/pdfft?md5=590633c52fcc070307e0cc1f879fbcf7&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000364-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79988527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

Development of a risk index for cross-border data movement 制定跨境数据流动的风险指数

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.05.003

Jin Li , Wanting Dong , Chong Zhang , Zihan Zhuo

{"title":"Development of a risk index for cross-border data movement","authors":"Jin Li , Wanting Dong , Chong Zhang , Zihan Zhuo","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Cross-border data transmission in the biomedical area is on the rise, which brings potential risks and management challenges to data security, biosafety, and national security. Focusing on cross-border data security assessment and risk management, many countries have successively issued relevant laws, regulations, and assessment guidelines. This study aims to provide an index system model and management application reference for the risk assessment of the cross-border data movement. From the perspective of a single organization, the relevant risk assessment standards of several countries are integrated to guide the identification and determination of risk factors. Then, the risk assessment index system of cross-border data flow is constructed. A case study of risk assessment in 358 biomedical organizations is carried out, and the suggestions for data management are offered. This study is condusive to improving security monitoring and the early warning of the cross-border data flow, thereby realizing the safe and orderly global flow of biomedical data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000224/pdfft?md5=310c5e0c23fd9c0c5dba956bc32eb179&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000224-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75192932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Long-term forecasting of hourly retail customer flow on intermittent time series with multiple seasonality 基于多季节性间歇时间序列的小时零售客流长期预测

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.07.002

Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tomé, José Moreira

{"title":"Long-term forecasting of hourly retail customer flow on intermittent time series with multiple seasonality","authors":"Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tomé, José Moreira","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.07.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsm.2022.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we address a demanding time series forecasting problem that deals simultaneously with the following: (1) intermittent time series, (2) multi-step ahead forecasting, (3) time series with multiple seasonal periods, and (4) performance measures for model selection across multiple time series. Current literature deals with these types of problems separately, and no study has dealt with all these characteristics simultaneously. To fill this knowledge gap, we begin by reviewing all the necessary existing literature relevant to this case study with the goal of proposing a framework capable of achieving adequate forecast accuracy for such a complex problem. Several adaptions and innovations have been conducted, which are marked as contributions to the literature. Specifically, we proposed a weighted average forecast combination of many cutting-edge models based on their out-of-sample performance. To gather strong evidence that our ensemble model works in practice, we undertook a large-scale study across 98 time series, rigorously assessed with unbiased performance measures, where a week seasonal naïve was set as a benchmark. The results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble model achieves eye-catching forecasting accuracy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000273/pdfft?md5=1dd7e0e03e9230a5986c9c5b06d429a0&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000273-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91724878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Pearson correlation and transfer entropy in the Chinese stock market with time delay 具有时滞的中国股市的Pearson相关和传递熵

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.001

Shaowei Peng, Wenchen Han, Guozhu Jia

引用次数: 9

A hybrid differential evolution algorithm for a stochastic location-inventory-delivery problem with joint replenishment 联合补货随机定位-库存-交货问题的混合差分进化算法

Data Science and Management Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsm.2022.07.003

Sirui Wang, Lin Wang, Yingying Pi

{"title":"A hybrid differential evolution algorithm for a stochastic location-inventory-delivery problem with joint replenishment","authors":"Sirui Wang, Lin Wang, Yingying Pi","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.07.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsm.2022.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A practical stochastic location-inventory-delivery problem with multi-item joint replenishment is studied. Unlike the conventional location-inventory model with a continuous-review (<em>r</em>, <em>Q</em>) inventory policy, the periodic-review inventory policy is adopted with multi-item joint replenishment under stochastic demand, and the coordinated delivery cost is considered. The proposed model considers the integrated optimization of strategic, tactical, and operational decisions by simultaneously determining (a) the number and location of distribution centers (DCs) to be opened, (b) the assignment of retailers to DCs, (c) the frequency and cycle interval of replenishment and delivery, and (d) the safety stock level for each item. An intelligent algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive differential evolution (ADE) is proposed to address this complex problem. Numerical experiments verified the effectiveness of the proposed two-stage PSO-ADE algorithm. A sensitivity analysis is presented to reveal interesting insights that can guide managers in making reasonable decisions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100353,"journal":{"name":"Data Science and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666764922000297/pdfft?md5=84902aa89790bfa1a62890f17b06f72d&pid=1-s2.0-S2666764922000297-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91724879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10