Climate Change Ecology最新文献

Nesting at the edge: breeding behavior and nest microclimate of the Glacier Finch (Idiopsar speculifer) on the Quelccaya ice cap, Southeastern Peru 边缘筑巢：秘鲁东南部魁尔卡亚冰冠上冰川雀（Idiopsar speculifer）的繁殖行为和巢小气候

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100106

Carlos Lazo , Renny Daniel Diaz , Alexis Díaz , Gimi Cristian Mamani , Miguel Angel Luza-Victorio , Douglas R. Hardy

{"title":"Nesting at the edge: breeding behavior and nest microclimate of the Glacier Finch (Idiopsar speculifer) on the Quelccaya ice cap, Southeastern Peru","authors":"Carlos Lazo , Renny Daniel Diaz , Alexis Díaz , Gimi Cristian Mamani , Miguel Angel Luza-Victorio , Douglas R. Hardy","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High‐elevation glacierized environments pose extreme nesting challenges for birds, yet the Glacier Finch (<em>Idiopsar speculifer</em>) regularly nests inside ice cavities, but data on active nests and their microclimates remain scarce. We documented these aspects across two breeding seasons (2024–2025) in three sectors on the western side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, southeastern Peru, above 5300 m asl. We characterized nest structure and composition, parental behavior, and the microclimate within glacier cavities used as nesting sites. We located six nests (four abandoned and two active) and described the structure and composition of three only once they were inactive (one abandoned and the two formerly active). Nests were open-cup structures composed primarily of two high-Andean grass species (<em>Deschampsia ovata</em> and <em>Cinnagrostis nitidula</em>). The active nests were monitored with trail cameras and microclimate sensors. One nest was found in April 2024 and the other in February 2025, the latter representing the earliest breeding record to date, occurring four days before the previously proposed egg-laying period, and the first documented nest built on rock rather than directly on ice. Daily biparental care was observed at one nest, with 8–9 visits per day and no nocturnal activity, whereas the second nest experienced predation by an Andean fox (<em>Lycalopex culpaeus).</em> Glacier cavities acted as thermal buffers, maintaining near-freezing temperatures (∼0 °C), high relative humidity (90–100 %), and low evaporation rates (0.2 kg m⁻² h⁻¹), providing more stable conditions than outside the cavity. These findings enhance understanding of reproduction in extreme glacierized habitats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 100106"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Long-term climatic variables effects on reproductive phenology of wild mouflon in the Zagros mountains 长期气候变量对扎格罗斯山区野生麋鹿繁殖物候的影响

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100107

Masoud Kordi , Farid Salmanpour , Peyman Valizadeh , Faraham Ahmadzadeh

{"title":"Long-term climatic variables effects on reproductive phenology of wild mouflon in the Zagros mountains","authors":"Masoud Kordi , Farid Salmanpour , Peyman Valizadeh , Faraham Ahmadzadeh","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change poses a critical global threat, reshaping biodiversity through alterations in species’ morphology, behavior, and distribution. Among the earliest and most sensitive biological responses are shifts in reproductive phenology, which have profound implications for species survival and ecosystem function. Large mammals such as mouflon (<em>Ovis gmelini)</em> are particularly vulnerable due to their ecological importance and limited adaptive capacity, and in Iran's climate-sensitive Zagros Mountains, these populations face additional pressures from habitat loss and poaching, while long-term ecological insights remain scarce. Leveraging over two decades of reproductive and meteorological data from five core habitats, this study quantifies climate-driven shifts in mating and lambing timing using generalized linear mixed models, which identified temperature as the dominant driver. Specifically, a 1 °C increase from May to November advanced mating by ∼0.8 days, and a 1 °C rise during December–April advanced lambing by ∼1.4 days, with spatial variation evident between the warmest site, Ghamishloo, and the coolest site, Tange Sayad. These findings demonstrate the pronounced sensitivity of Zagros mouflon reproductive cycles to temperature, highlighting reproductive phenology as a robust bioindicator of environmental change. Although no significant overall temporal shifts were detected across the Zagros region, local warming corresponded with measurable shifts in mating timing, reflecting spatial heterogeneity in climate effects. This work bridges critical knowledge gaps in ungulate ecology and provides quantitative evidence to inform conservation strategies for safeguarding biodiversity in Iran’s montane ecosystems under ongoing climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 100107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Micrometeorological variability and climate change affect snake overwintering habitat resilience 微气象变率和气候变化影响蛇越冬生境的恢复力

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2026.100108

Rachel Y. Fallas , Chantel E. Markle , Paul A. Moore , James M. Waddington

{"title":"Micrometeorological variability and climate change affect snake overwintering habitat resilience","authors":"Rachel Y. Fallas , Chantel E. Markle , Paul A. Moore , James M. Waddington","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2026.100108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2026.100108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Snakes at northern latitudes can spend over half the year in their overwintering sites to avoid exposure to unsuitable weather conditions. However, with changing weather patterns driven by climate change, we hypothesized that warming winters could reduce the snowpack, thereby diminishing its insulating ability and compromising the stability of overwintering habitat conditions. We collected micrometeorological data from 2018–2024 in 10 peatlands near the northern range limit of the at-risk Eastern Massasauga rattlesnake (<em>Sistrurus catenatus</em>). We quantified suitable overwintering conditions for these peatlands by monitoring the life or resilience zone - the subterranean space above the water table and below the 0°C isotherm that could function as suitable overwintering habitat. We found that winters with warmer temperatures were associated with more favourable resilience zone conditions, while greater snow accumulation was linked to poorer overwintering conditions. However, towards the end of winter in February and March, warmer temperatures were linked to snowmelt, rising water tables, and subsequent resilience zone loss. We also used climate projections under shared socio-economic pathways to model future resilience zone conditions that predicted shallower freezing depths and rising water tables in most peatlands. As a result, some peatlands are expected to support a larger resilience zone while others may face prolonged flooding and reduced quality of overwintering habitat as a result of a diminished resilience zone. Though these variable outcomes suggest that suitable overwintering habitat will remain on the landscape, the implications for habitat currently used by snakes will depend on massasaugas’ tolerance to flooding versus freezing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 100108"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146090550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Host plant elevation shifts and population declines in an island-endemic butterfly 岛上特有蝴蝶的寄主植物海拔变化和种群下降

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100105

Sarah R. Steele Cabrera , Robin Sarabia , Erica H. Henry , Chad T. Anderson , Jaret C. Daniels

{"title":"Host plant elevation shifts and population declines in an island-endemic butterfly","authors":"Sarah R. Steele Cabrera , Robin Sarabia , Erica H. Henry , Chad T. Anderson , Jaret C. Daniels","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal and island ecosystems are disproportionately vulnerable to sea level rise and other impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Using monitoring data collected between 2013 and 2024, we explore habitat changes, population dynamics, and phenology of an endemic butterfly in the Florida Keys, USA, Klots' sawgrass skipper (<em>Euphyes pilatka klotsi</em>. Range-wide surveys of the butterfly were conducted using Distance sampling along transects to repeatedly estimate population size. Host plant and shrub abundance were estimated along these transects in 2013 and 2021. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were conducted to examine change in plant abundance between our two sampling periods and generalized least square regression models were constructed to understand the relationship between host plant abundance and elevation. Our results show that the butterfly's sole host plant is decreasing in abundance at lower elevations. We also find declines in butterfly population size. Despite these declines, we find that Klots' sawgrass skipper's range has not contracted significantly over the study period.</div><div>This study demonstrates that monitoring a single taxon and its host plant is useful for monitoring this rare freshwater ecosystem, which is vital for the continued survival of a suite of rare and endemic species found in the Florida Keys. Projections of near-future sea level rise indicate that most or all of this habitat will be lost within several decades; the continued study of low-lying islands is critical to gain insight into the global phenomenon of sea level rise.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 100105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145753785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling the future distribution of Schistosoma-transmitting snails in South Africa using climate projections 利用气候预测模拟传播血吸虫的蜗牛在南非的未来分布

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100098

Nisa Ayob , Dirk P Cilliers , Roelof P Burger , Monray D Belelie , Ncobile C Nkosi , Lizaan de Necker

{"title":"Modelling the future distribution of Schistosoma-transmitting snails in South Africa using climate projections","authors":"Nisa Ayob , Dirk P Cilliers , Roelof P Burger , Monray D Belelie , Ncobile C Nkosi , Lizaan de Necker","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Schistosomiasis is a disease caused by trematode worms and transmitted through specific gastropod snails, namely <em>Bulinus africanus, Bulinus globosus</em>, and <em>Biomphalaria pfeifferi</em>. The distribution of <em>Schistosoma</em> species is influenced by climate factors such as temperature and rainfall. Understanding the impact of climate change on these factors is crucial for predicting changes in schistosomiasis transmission. This study employed bioclimatic variables to forecast the future distribution of these snail species in South Africa, utilising three ecological models alongside three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. The predicted impacts of climate change on <em>Schistosoma</em>-transmitting snails in South Africa indicate a shift in habitat suitability for these intermediate hosts. <em>Bulinus africanus</em> may see a reduction in habitats across several provinces, but could expand into the southwest coast and central Free State. <em>Biomphalaria pfeifferi</em> is expected to encounter decreased suitability in the eastern regions of South Africa but may find new habitats in the Free State, Northern Cape, and western areas. <em>Bulinus globosus</em> is likely to face habitat declines but could adapt to suitable climates in the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal regions. These shifts suggest that warming climates may create new habitats for these snail species at higher elevations and cooler areas. This study established a foundational framework for subsequent research at the provincial and municipal levels. This can be a foundation for developing strategies to prevent transmission and range expansion of schistosomiasis into previously unaffected areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100098"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Damaging potential to rice crops of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea maculata) and the native Thai apple snail (Pila celebensis) under changing temperature conditions in Thailand 泰国温度变化条件下入侵苹果螺（Pomacea maculata）和泰国本土苹果螺（Pila celebensis）对水稻作物的危害潜力

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100096

Weerada Panchot, Warut Siriwut, Phakhawat Thaweepworadej, Intanon Kolasartsanee

{"title":"Damaging potential to rice crops of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea maculata) and the native Thai apple snail (Pila celebensis) under changing temperature conditions in Thailand","authors":"Weerada Panchot, Warut Siriwut, Phakhawat Thaweepworadej, Intanon Kolasartsanee","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is expected to change precipitation patterns and increases the risks of agricultural diseases and pests in rice, a staple crop in Southeast Asia. Apple snails are among the most significant threats to rice production, yet their pest potential under future climate scenarios remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the survival, growth (changes in shell length and weight), and rice stem consumption comparing between the invasive <em>Pomacea maculata</em> and the native <em>Pila celebensis</em>, under the SSP5–8.5 scenario in Thailand—one of the leading rice producers and exporters in the word. We observed snail survival, growth, and feeding rates across three temperature treatments: ambient temperature (28°C, control), 29.2 °C (+1.2 °C in the next 20 years), and 30.1 °C (+2.1 °C in the next 40 years). Our results revealed that while the survival probability of the native <em>P. celebensis</em> significantly decreased under the increasing temperatures, the invasive <em>P. maculata</em> remained unaffected. Both species exhibited accelerated growth under warm conditions, but only <em>P. maculata</em> shows increased rice consumption over time and with rising temperatures, while <em>P. celebensis</em> maintains a constant feeding rate. These findings suggest that future warming climate could intensify the pest impact of the invasive <em>P. maculata</em>, potentially causing greater damage to rice production, especially in comparison to native <em>P. celebensis</em>. Our study underlines the need for integrative pest management strategies focused on early-stage eradication of invasives snails to mitigate their impact under future climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100096"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144501483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparison of ambient temperature variations at two elevations of Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, 2016–2017 in relation to the El Niño event 2016-2017年马来西亚婆罗洲沙巴州基纳巴卢山两个海拔高度与El Niño事件的环境温度变化比较

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100102

Florina Anthony , Luiza Majuakim , Monica Suleiman , Kanehiro Kitayama , Thor-Seng Liew

{"title":"Comparison of ambient temperature variations at two elevations of Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, 2016–2017 in relation to the El Niño event","authors":"Florina Anthony , Luiza Majuakim , Monica Suleiman , Kanehiro Kitayama , Thor-Seng Liew","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research into the responses of organisms to climate change relies on macroclimatic models based on the assumption that species respond primarily to large-scale climate regimes. However, fine-scale climate variation is crucial, especially for short-range organisms in tropical mountains, where habitat and microclimatic heterogeneity are high. This study presents temperature data from weather stations in open areas and from data loggers under tree canopies on Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, recorded between 20 January 2016 and 15 June 2017, across an elevation gradient from 2600 m to 3300 m. We also recorded temperature variables during January to June 2016 and after the El Niño event (January to June 2017). Our results show that weather station and under-canopy records displayed broadly similar temperature patterns at corresponding elevations. The 2016 El Niño event had a significant warming effect, increasing the mean daily temperature by an average of 0.53–0.67 °C across our study sites (<em>p</em> < 0.001) compared to the non-El Niño year of 2017. Linear Mixed-Effects models revealed a significant interaction between year and elevation: El Niño amplified daily maximum temperatures at higher elevations but reduced daily minimum temperatures. The microclimatic data collected in this study can be used as a basis for future studies and allow for quantitative, detailed comparisons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100102"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Headwinds to understanding stress response physiology: A systematic review reveals mismatch between real and simulated marine heatwaves on coral reefs 理解应激反应生理学的阻力：一项系统综述揭示了珊瑚礁上真实和模拟的海洋热浪之间的不匹配

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100094

Harmony A. Martell , Simon D. Donner

{"title":"Headwinds to understanding stress response physiology: A systematic review reveals mismatch between real and simulated marine heatwaves on coral reefs","authors":"Harmony A. Martell , Simon D. Donner","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Laboratory experiments have long been used to guide predictions of organismal stress in response to the rapidly changing climate. However, the ability to simulate real world conditions in the laboratory can be a barrier to prediction accuracy. We performed a systematic review of experimental coral bleaching literature and assembled a database to identify the methods used to measure bleaching in heating experiments and assess how closely heating experiments resembled marine heatwaves (MHWs) on coral reefs. Observations of the maximum photochemical yield of Photosystem II (<em>F</em><sub>V</sub>/<em>F</em><sub>M</sub>), though not a direct measure of dysbiosis, vastly outnumbered Symbiodiniaceae density and chlorophyll observations in the reviewed literature, indicating its widespread misuse as a proxy for coral dysbiosis. Laboratory studies in our database used higher maximum temperatures (∼ 0.9 ×), degree heating times (∼ 1.7 ×) and heating rates (∼ 7.3 ×), and shorter durations (∼ 1.5 ×), than MHWs on coral reefs. We then asked whether exposure differences between laboratory experiments and reef conditions altered the relationship between coral dysbiosis and heating metrics using the example of hormesis. We fit curves on the data both with and without ecologically relevant heating metrics and found hormetic curves in some response variables that were altered with the exclusion of exposures that fell outside of the bounds of MHWs on coral reefs, indicating a high likelihood of prediction error. We recommend that laboratory-based studies of coral dysbiosis use ecologically relevant exposures to improve predictions of the physiological response of corals to our rapidly warming oceans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100094"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling current and future distribution of invasive tegu lizards along geopolitical boundaries in the contiguous United States: Implications for invasion threat 模拟沿美国邻近地缘政治边界的入侵tegu蜥蜴的当前和未来分布：对入侵威胁的影响

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100097

Amanda M. Kissel , Catherine S. Jarnevich , Andrea F. Currylow , Amy A. Yackel Adams

{"title":"Modeling current and future distribution of invasive tegu lizards along geopolitical boundaries in the contiguous United States: Implications for invasion threat","authors":"Amanda M. Kissel , Catherine S. Jarnevich , Andrea F. Currylow , Amy A. Yackel Adams","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historically, constrained temperature ranges limited the spread of invasive herpetofauna into temperate climates, but climate change is predicted to facilitate broader distributions. There are three species of tegu lizards native to South America and available in the pet trade that have a high risk of invasion and deleterious impacts to native ecosystems in the United States (US). There are four populations of the black and white tegu (<em>Salvator merianae</em>) in Florida and sightings as far north as North Carolina and west as California. Red tegus (<em>S. rufescens</em>) have been observed in Florida, and there is an established population of gold tegus (<em>Tupinambis teguixin</em>) in Florida. We updated previous distribution models for the contiguous United States (CONUS) that used occurrence points from their native range in South America to evaluate potential changes given current and future climate scenarios (+2 °C and +4 °C warming). Under current climate conditions, one or more tegu species have the potential to occupy most ecoregions in the CONUS. Under a + 4 °C warming scenario, suitable habitat increases by 11 % for <em>S. merianae</em>, 31 % for <em>S. rufescens</em>. The proportion of suitable habitat for <em>T. teguixin</em> was small under all scenarios, but increased from 0.0003 to 0.0017. For <em>S. merianae</em>, parts of Florida become less suitable, while suitability increases in this region for the other two species. Additionally, much of the western US is projected to be suitable for <em>S. rufescens</em>. Our case study underscores the potential for climate change to compound invasion threats that could outpace effective managerial responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100097"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100100

Orlando Lam-Gordillo, Andrew M. Lohrer

{"title":"Climate-related drivers of estuarine macrobenthic functional redundancy and resilience","authors":"Orlando Lam-Gordillo, Andrew M. Lohrer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Elevated anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are warming the planet, although our understanding of how climate-related changes manifest locally remains poor. In estuaries, rising air and sea surface temperatures, increased sediment loading, and climate-related changes (e.g., cyclones, heatwaves, droughts) can collectively influence tidal flat biota and the key ecosystem functions they mediate. Here, we used long-term data from six sites in a New Zealand estuary (all sampled quarterly for 22 years) to evaluate tidal flat macroinvertebrate changes and responses of five functional diversity metrics (i.e., Functional Richness, Evenness, Dispersion, Divergence, and Redundancy) to shifting environmental conditions. Sea surface temperature (satellite SST records), sediment organic matter content (OM), and bed sediment muddiness all increased significantly at all sites from 2000 to 2022. The individual effects of these environmental drivers on functional diversity metrics were mixed, but net trends in Functional Richness and Functional Redundancy indicated increasing levels of community resilience over time. Heat spikes can cause thermal stress, but gradual warming may elevate metabolic rates and accelerate reactions such as photosynthesis. The positive effects on increased food supply (OM) could have outweighed negative influences of increasing mud, generating the net trends in our data. Overall, our research suggests that some estuarine soft-sediment macroinvertebrate communities, based on the analysis of functional diversity metrics, are becoming increasingly resilient and adaptable, rather than increasingly depauperate and functionally impacted, as climate change strengthens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0