Climate Change Ecology最新文献

Modelling the future distribution of Schistosoma-transmitting snails in South Africa using climate projections 利用气候预测模拟传播血吸虫的蜗牛在南非的未来分布

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100098

Nisa Ayob , Dirk P Cilliers , Roelof P Burger , Monray D Belelie , Ncobile C Nkosi , Lizaan de Necker

{"title":"Modelling the future distribution of Schistosoma-transmitting snails in South Africa using climate projections","authors":"Nisa Ayob , Dirk P Cilliers , Roelof P Burger , Monray D Belelie , Ncobile C Nkosi , Lizaan de Necker","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Schistosomiasis is a disease caused by trematode worms and transmitted through specific gastropod snails, namely <em>Bulinus africanus, Bulinus globosus</em>, and <em>Biomphalaria pfeifferi</em>. The distribution of <em>Schistosoma</em> species is influenced by climate factors such as temperature and rainfall. Understanding the impact of climate change on these factors is crucial for predicting changes in schistosomiasis transmission. This study employed bioclimatic variables to forecast the future distribution of these snail species in South Africa, utilising three ecological models alongside three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. The predicted impacts of climate change on <em>Schistosoma</em>-transmitting snails in South Africa indicate a shift in habitat suitability for these intermediate hosts. <em>Bulinus africanus</em> may see a reduction in habitats across several provinces, but could expand into the southwest coast and central Free State. <em>Biomphalaria pfeifferi</em> is expected to encounter decreased suitability in the eastern regions of South Africa but may find new habitats in the Free State, Northern Cape, and western areas. <em>Bulinus globosus</em> is likely to face habitat declines but could adapt to suitable climates in the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal regions. These shifts suggest that warming climates may create new habitats for these snail species at higher elevations and cooler areas. This study established a foundational framework for subsequent research at the provincial and municipal levels. This can be a foundation for developing strategies to prevent transmission and range expansion of schistosomiasis into previously unaffected areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100098"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling current and future distribution of invasive tegu lizards along geopolitical boundaries in the contiguous United States: Implications for invasion threat 模拟沿美国邻近地缘政治边界的入侵tegu蜥蜴的当前和未来分布：对入侵威胁的影响

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100097

Amanda M. Kissel , Catherine S. Jarnevich , Andrea F. Currylow , Amy A. Yackel Adams

{"title":"Modeling current and future distribution of invasive tegu lizards along geopolitical boundaries in the contiguous United States: Implications for invasion threat","authors":"Amanda M. Kissel , Catherine S. Jarnevich , Andrea F. Currylow , Amy A. Yackel Adams","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historically, constrained temperature ranges limited the spread of invasive herpetofauna into temperate climates, but climate change is predicted to facilitate broader distributions. There are three species of tegu lizards native to South America and available in the pet trade that have a high risk of invasion and deleterious impacts to native ecosystems in the United States (US). There are four populations of the black and white tegu (<em>Salvator merianae</em>) in Florida and sightings as far north as North Carolina and west as California. Red tegus (<em>S. rufescens</em>) have been observed in Florida, and there is an established population of gold tegus (<em>Tupinambis teguixin</em>) in Florida. We updated previous distribution models for the contiguous United States (CONUS) that used occurrence points from their native range in South America to evaluate potential changes given current and future climate scenarios (+2 °C and +4 °C warming). Under current climate conditions, one or more tegu species have the potential to occupy most ecoregions in the CONUS. Under a + 4 °C warming scenario, suitable habitat increases by 11 % for <em>S. merianae</em>, 31 % for <em>S. rufescens</em>. The proportion of suitable habitat for <em>T. teguixin</em> was small under all scenarios, but increased from 0.0003 to 0.0017. For <em>S. merianae</em>, parts of Florida become less suitable, while suitability increases in this region for the other two species. Additionally, much of the western US is projected to be suitable for <em>S. rufescens</em>. Our case study underscores the potential for climate change to compound invasion threats that could outpace effective managerial responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100097"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Damaging potential to rice crops of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea maculata) and the native Thai apple snail (Pila celebensis) under changing temperature conditions in Thailand 泰国温度变化条件下入侵苹果螺（Pomacea maculata）和泰国本土苹果螺（Pila celebensis）对水稻作物的危害潜力

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100096

Weerada Panchot, Warut Siriwut, Phakhawat Thaweepworadej, Intanon Kolasartsanee

{"title":"Damaging potential to rice crops of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea maculata) and the native Thai apple snail (Pila celebensis) under changing temperature conditions in Thailand","authors":"Weerada Panchot, Warut Siriwut, Phakhawat Thaweepworadej, Intanon Kolasartsanee","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is expected to change precipitation patterns and increases the risks of agricultural diseases and pests in rice, a staple crop in Southeast Asia. Apple snails are among the most significant threats to rice production, yet their pest potential under future climate scenarios remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the survival, growth (changes in shell length and weight), and rice stem consumption comparing between the invasive <em>Pomacea maculata</em> and the native <em>Pila celebensis</em>, under the SSP5–8.5 scenario in Thailand—one of the leading rice producers and exporters in the word. We observed snail survival, growth, and feeding rates across three temperature treatments: ambient temperature (28°C, control), 29.2 °C (+1.2 °C in the next 20 years), and 30.1 °C (+2.1 °C in the next 40 years). Our results revealed that while the survival probability of the native <em>P. celebensis</em> significantly decreased under the increasing temperatures, the invasive <em>P. maculata</em> remained unaffected. Both species exhibited accelerated growth under warm conditions, but only <em>P. maculata</em> shows increased rice consumption over time and with rising temperatures, while <em>P. celebensis</em> maintains a constant feeding rate. These findings suggest that future warming climate could intensify the pest impact of the invasive <em>P. maculata</em>, potentially causing greater damage to rice production, especially in comparison to native <em>P. celebensis</em>. Our study underlines the need for integrative pest management strategies focused on early-stage eradication of invasives snails to mitigate their impact under future climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100096"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144501483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Plant competition dominates grass species interactions in a migrating marsh-forest ecotone 在迁移的沼泽-森林过渡带中，植物竞争主导着禾草物种的相互作用

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100095

Keryn B. Gedan , Whitney C. Hoot , Eduardo Fernández-Pascual

{"title":"Plant competition dominates grass species interactions in a migrating marsh-forest ecotone","authors":"Keryn B. Gedan , Whitney C. Hoot , Eduardo Fernández-Pascual","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecotone communities are areas of high species turnover and steep environmental gradients. We investigated how environmental gradients shape species interactions between upland and tidal wetland grass species to shed light on zonation in these species’ distribution patterns, in the context of understanding how their distributions may change with sea level rise and forest dieback. Across the coastal marsh-forest ecotone, there are stark shifts in two vital conditions for plants: salinity and light availability. We measured these abiotic conditions and plant productivity at sites spanning the ecotone and within a forest clear-cut, where canopy shading had been experimentally removed. In a greenhouse manipulation of plant species neighbor, salinity, and light availability, we hypothesized that plant interactions would become more facilitative in stressful conditions and that more salt tolerant species would also be more light-demanding. Species salt tolerance followed an expected ranking based on species zonation in the field, but all species responded similarly to reductions in light. Plant interactions in all treatments were negative or neutral, never facilitative. Despite low resource availability of light and elevated levels of salinity within the marsh-forest ecotone, plant interactions there reflect a benign stress environment, in which competition is predominant and where resource limitation, stress, and competition have additive, negative effects on plant performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100095"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Headwinds to understanding stress response physiology: A systematic review reveals mismatch between real and simulated marine heatwaves on coral reefs 理解应激反应生理学的阻力：一项系统综述揭示了珊瑚礁上真实和模拟的海洋热浪之间的不匹配

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100094

Harmony A. Martell , Simon D. Donner

{"title":"Headwinds to understanding stress response physiology: A systematic review reveals mismatch between real and simulated marine heatwaves on coral reefs","authors":"Harmony A. Martell , Simon D. Donner","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Laboratory experiments have long been used to guide predictions of organismal stress in response to the rapidly changing climate. However, the ability to simulate real world conditions in the laboratory can be a barrier to prediction accuracy. We performed a systematic review of experimental coral bleaching literature and assembled a database to identify the methods used to measure bleaching in heating experiments and assess how closely heating experiments resembled marine heatwaves (MHWs) on coral reefs. Observations of the maximum photochemical yield of Photosystem II (<em>F</em><sub>V</sub>/<em>F</em><sub>M</sub>), though not a direct measure of dysbiosis, vastly outnumbered Symbiodiniaceae density and chlorophyll observations in the reviewed literature, indicating its widespread misuse as a proxy for coral dysbiosis. Laboratory studies in our database used higher maximum temperatures (∼ 0.9 ×), degree heating times (∼ 1.7 ×) and heating rates (∼ 7.3 ×), and shorter durations (∼ 1.5 ×), than MHWs on coral reefs. We then asked whether exposure differences between laboratory experiments and reef conditions altered the relationship between coral dysbiosis and heating metrics using the example of hormesis. We fit curves on the data both with and without ecologically relevant heating metrics and found hormetic curves in some response variables that were altered with the exclusion of exposures that fell outside of the bounds of MHWs on coral reefs, indicating a high likelihood of prediction error. We recommend that laboratory-based studies of coral dysbiosis use ecologically relevant exposures to improve predictions of the physiological response of corals to our rapidly warming oceans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100094"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A year in review: Environmental policy changes in 2024 一年回顾：2024年的环境政策变化

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100093

Alice C. Hughes

引用次数: 0

Expanding horizon of invasive alien plants under the interacting effects of global climate change: Multifaceted impacts and management prospects 全球气候变化相互作用下外来入侵植物扩展视野：多方面影响与管理展望

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100092

Roger Bruce Syngkli, Prabhat Kumar Rai, Lalnuntluanga

{"title":"Expanding horizon of invasive alien plants under the interacting effects of global climate change: Multifaceted impacts and management prospects","authors":"Roger Bruce Syngkli, Prabhat Kumar Rai, Lalnuntluanga","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100092","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100092","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Anthropogenic disturbances driven introduction of invasive alien plants (IAP) threatened the native biodiversity and environmental sustainability. IAP induced biotic homogenization can also disrupt ecosystem functioning/-services and socio-economy. Multifaceted threats of IAP can further be exacerbated under the interactive effects of climate change. However, IAP-climate change interaction is insufficiently addressed. Therefore, present review attempts to explicitly elucidate this linkage for cross-sectoral invasion ecology and management research. Changes in climatic variables also facilitated IAP to expand their horizon irrespective of the extreme climate and geographical barriers, which enhanced the vulnerability of protected areas rich in endemics. Moreover, IAP-climate change impacted the forestry/agroforestry systems by restricting abiotic resources and influencing forest regeneration, litter stock, and nutrient cycling. Consequently, IAP-climate change can influence ecological economics, livelihood, and human well-being. Implementation of species distribution model (SDM) into management and mitigation strategies is required to control IAP along with the present and future climate change scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100092"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projected climate change effects on individual growth rates and size in a threatened pitviper 预测气候变化对濒危pitviper个体生长速度和大小的影响

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2024-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100091

James N. Helferich , Richard B. King , Lisa J. Faust , Sarah J. Baker , Michael J. Dreslik , Kenton Otterbein , Jennifer A. Moore , Doug Wynn , Thomas A. Bell , Robyn L. Bailey , Kristin Wildman , Glenn Johnson , Matthew Kleitch , Karen Cedar , Rori A. Paloski , Jonathan D. Choquette , John M. Adamski , Eric T. Hileman

{"title":"Projected climate change effects on individual growth rates and size in a threatened pitviper","authors":"James N. Helferich , Richard B. King , Lisa J. Faust , Sarah J. Baker , Michael J. Dreslik , Kenton Otterbein , Jennifer A. Moore , Doug Wynn , Thomas A. Bell , Robyn L. Bailey , Kristin Wildman , Glenn Johnson , Matthew Kleitch , Karen Cedar , Rori A. Paloski , Jonathan D. Choquette , John M. Adamski , Eric T. Hileman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they rely on the surrounding environment for thermoregulation. In snakes, prolonged warmer temperatures and precipitation changes may lead to faster growth and smaller body size. Our goal was to assess how climate change may impact future sizes and growth rates on an endangered pitviper species as a model organism. We hypothesized that climate change-induced shifts in growing season temperature, early growing season precipitation, and snow residence time (SRT) would impact growth rate and asymptotic size in the threatened Eastern Massasauga (<em>Sistrurus catenatus</em>) rattlesnake. We used capture-mark-recapture data from eleven sites across the species’ range to fit a set of non-linear models evaluating the effects of these three climate variables on asymptotic size and growth coefficient in a modified von Bertalanffy growth curve. We found that longer SRT resulted in larger asymptotic size. We also found support for both a negative relationship between SRT and growth rate and a positive relationship between precipitation and growth rate. We averaged all supported models and predicted growth and size in the 2080s under a stabilization (RCP 4.5) and a high (RCP 8.5) emission scenario. Under RCP 8.5, predicted increases in female growth rate ranged from 10 % to 33 %, whereas decreases in female size across sites ranged from 9 % to 17 %. Under this scenario female lifetime reproductive success will decrease, as faster growth is associated with increased mortality, early senescence, and poor offspring quality, and smaller body sizes will result in smaller and fewer young.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100091"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Varying effects of climate change on the photosynthesis and calcification of crustose coralline algae: Implications for settlement of coral larvae 气候变化对珊瑚藻光合作用和钙化的不同影响：对珊瑚幼虫定居的影响

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100090

Jennifer M. Sneed , Justin E. Campbell , Audrey Looby , Aurora Giorgi , Valerie J. Paul

{"title":"Varying effects of climate change on the photosynthesis and calcification of crustose coralline algae: Implications for settlement of coral larvae","authors":"Jennifer M. Sneed , Justin E. Campbell , Audrey Looby , Aurora Giorgi , Valerie J. Paul","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100090","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100090","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coral recruitment is critical to the maintenance of healthy coral reef ecosystems. Many coral species settle preferentially on certain crustose coralline algae (CCA) (e.g., <em>Hydrolithon boergesenii</em>) over others (e.g., <em>Paragoniolithon solubile</em>). Calcifying organisms like CCA are particularly susceptible to ocean acidification (OA), and settlement behavior of larvae may be compromised as seawater temperatures increase (ocean warming; OW) and pH levels decrease as a result of climate change. Here, we examine the effects of future seawater conditions (OW and OA) on the calcification and photosynthetic efficiency of two CCA species, <em>H. boergesenii</em> and <em>Pa. solubile</em>. We also examine the effects of conditioning CCA in combined OA and OW on the settlement preferences of three coral species, <em>Acropora palmata, A. cervicornis</em> and <em>Porites astreoides. Acropora palmata</em> and <em>Po. astreoides</em> demonstrated a preference for <em>H. boergesenii</em> over <em>Pa. solubile</em> in choice experiments after short-term treatment (7–21 days) and this preference was not affected by future seawater conditions. <em>A. cervicornis</em> did not demonstrate a CCA preference under any treatment. <em>Po. astreoides</em> did not demonstrate a CCA preference in no-choice assays and settlement was unaffected by OW and OA even after the longest exposure (99 days). Both CCA had reduced photosynthetic efficiency after exposure to future seawater conditions. However, net calcification rate was reduced in <em>H. boergesenii</em> but not <em>Pa. solubile</em> after exposure to future seawater conditions. These results demonstrate that while climate change may differentially affect the physiological functioning of various species of CCA, coral settlement preferences are unlikely to be altered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100090"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anticipated impacts in habitat of diagnostic species of potential natural vegetations due to climate change at the ecotone between temperate and boreal forests 温带森林和北方森林生态区气候变化对潜在天然植被诊断物种栖息地的预期影响

Climate Change Ecology Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100089

Aurélie Chalumeau , Yves Bergeron , Mathieu Bouchard , Pierre Grondin , Marie-Claude Lambert , Catherine Périé

{"title":"Anticipated impacts in habitat of diagnostic species of potential natural vegetations due to climate change at the ecotone between temperate and boreal forests","authors":"Aurélie Chalumeau , Yves Bergeron , Mathieu Bouchard , Pierre Grondin , Marie-Claude Lambert , Catherine Périé","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2024.100089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Potential natural vegetations are crucial for forest research, management, and monitoring, especially considering their evolution amidst climate change. In Quebec (Canada), these vegetations were defined in the 2000s but haven't been updated since then. Originally, stability in their composition and dynamics relied on unchanged climate, soil characteristics, and disturbance regimes. However, in the southwestern part of Quebec forests, we have enhanced the description of potential natural vegetations using diagnostic species, based on their indicator values and relative abundance. This improvement prompts a reevaluation of these vegetations, particularly at the transition between temperate and boreal forests, considering climate change. Our study, using tree habitat suitability models, reveals that even under a moderately warming scenario (2041–2070 RCP 4.5 W m<sup>−2</sup>), diagnostic coniferous and boreal hardwood species face habitat suitability declines but the current classification remains adequate. However, a more severe warming scenario (2071–2100 RCP 8.5 W m<sup>−2</sup>) results in significant habitat unsuitability for these diagnostic species, questioning the relevance of the current classification at the ecotone. Given the crucial tool of potential natural vegetations in forest management, updating their classification becomes imperative to guide forestry practices' adaptation to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100260,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Ecology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100089"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0