Damaging potential to rice crops of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea maculata) and the native Thai apple snail (Pila celebensis) under changing temperature conditions in Thailand

Climate change is expected to change precipitation patterns and increases the risks of agricultural diseases and pests in rice, a staple crop in Southeast Asia. Apple snails are among the most significant threats to rice production, yet their pest potential under future climate scenarios remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the survival, growth (changes in shell length and weight), and rice stem consumption comparing between the invasive Pomacea maculata and the native Pila celebensis, under the SSP5–8.5 scenario in Thailand—one of the leading rice producers and exporters in the word. We observed snail survival, growth, and feeding rates across three temperature treatments: ambient temperature (28°C, control), 29.2 °C (+1.2 °C in the next 20 years), and 30.1 °C (+2.1 °C in the next 40 years). Our results revealed that while the survival probability of the native P. celebensis significantly decreased under the increasing temperatures, the invasive P. maculata remained unaffected. Both species exhibited accelerated growth under warm conditions, but only P. maculata shows increased rice consumption over time and with rising temperatures, while P. celebensis maintains a constant feeding rate. These findings suggest that future warming climate could intensify the pest impact of the invasive P. maculata, potentially causing greater damage to rice production, especially in comparison to native P. celebensis. Our study underlines the need for integrative pest management strategies focused on early-stage eradication of invasives snails to mitigate their impact under future climate.