AGU Advances最新文献_第2页

“Lab-Quakes”: Quantifying the Complete Energy Budget of High-Pressure Laboratory Failure “实验室地震”：量化高压实验室故障的完整能量预算

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001683

Daniel Ortega-Arroyo, Hoagy O'Ghaffari, Matěj Peč, Zheng Gong, Roger R. Fu, Markus Ohl, Camilla Cattania, Oliver Plümper

{"title":"“Lab-Quakes”: Quantifying the Complete Energy Budget of High-Pressure Laboratory Failure","authors":"Daniel Ortega-Arroyo, Hoagy O'Ghaffari, Matěj Peč, Zheng Gong, Roger R. Fu, Markus Ohl, Camilla Cattania, Oliver Plümper","doi":"10.1029/2025AV001683","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025AV001683","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the interplay of various energy sinks during seismic fault slip is essential for advancing earthquake physics and improving hazard assessment. However, quantifying the energy consumed by major dissipative processes remains a challenge. In this study, we investigate energy partitioning during laboratory earthquakes (“lab-quakes”) by performing general shear stick-slip experiments on synthetic granitic cataclasites at elevated confining pressure. Using ultrasound, microstructural, and novel magnetism-based thermal analyses, we independently quantified the energy allocated to seismic radiation, new surfaces, and heat dissipation. These estimates showed good agreement with far-field measurements of mechanical work during the lab-quake. Our findings revealed that under the experimental conditions the majority of the released energy (68%–98%) is dissipated as heat, while seismic radiation accounts for 1%–8%, and the creation of new surfaces consumes <1%–32%. Microstructural observations indicate pre-failure deformation, which includes comminution and development of the principal slip zone, significantly influences energy partitioning. This effect is further evident in the measured shear stress drops, where events with higher stress drops proportionally emitted more energy as seismic waves. This study is the first to constrain the full energy budget of lab-quakes from an observational standpoint, providing critical insights into the dynamics of fault rupture and energy dissipation processes.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025AV001683","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Deep Learning Earth System Model for Efficient Simulation of the Observed Climate 有效模拟观测气候的深度学习地球系统模型

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001706

Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay, Bowen Liu, Dale R. Durran, Zihui Liu, Zachary I. Espinosa, Raul A. Moreno, Matthias Karlbauer

{"title":"A Deep Learning Earth System Model for Efficient Simulation of the Observed Climate","authors":"Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay, Bowen Liu, Dale R. Durran, Zihui Liu, Zachary I. Espinosa, Raul A. Moreno, Matthias Karlbauer","doi":"10.1029/2025AV001706","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025AV001706","url":null,"abstract":"A key challenge for computationally intensive state-of-the-art Earth System models is to distinguish global warming signals from interannual variability. Here we introduce Deep Learning Earth System Model (DLESyM), a parsimonious deep learning model that accurately simulates the Earth's current climate over 1000-year periods with minimal smoothing and no drift. DLESyM simulations equal or exceed key metrics of seasonal and interannual variability—such as tropical cyclogenesis over the range of observed intensities, the cycle of the Indian Summer monsoon, and the climatology of mid-latitude blocking events—when compared to historical simulations from four leading models from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. DLESyM, trained on both historical reanalysis data and satellite observations, is an accurate, highly efficient model of the coupled Earth system, empowering long-range sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts while using a fraction of the energy and computational time required by traditional models.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025AV001706","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decades-Long Evolution of Post-Fire Permafrost Deformation Detected by InSAR: Insights From Chronosequence in North Yukon InSAR探测到的火灾后多年冻土变形的几十年演变：来自时间序列的见解

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001849

Zetao Cao, Masato Furuya

{"title":"Decades-Long Evolution of Post-Fire Permafrost Deformation Detected by InSAR: Insights From Chronosequence in North Yukon","authors":"Zetao Cao, Masato Furuya","doi":"10.1029/2025AV001849","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025AV001849","url":null,"abstract":"Permafrost, a critical global cryospheric component, supports subarctic boreal forests but is frequently disturbed by wildfires, an important driver of permafrost degradation. Wildfires reduce vegetation, organic layers, and surface albedo, leading to active layer thickening and ground subsidence. Recent studies using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) have confirmed the rapid and extensive post-fire permafrost degradation, and have largely focused on short-term impacts. However, the longer-term post-fire permafrost deformation, potentially persisting for decades, remains poorly understood due to limited data. Here, we applied InSAR in North Yukon to detect deformation signals across multiple fire scars in the past five decades. Using a chronosequence (space-for-time substitution) approach, we summarize a continuous trajectory of post-fire permafrost evolution: (a) an initial degradation stage, characterized by abrupt subsidence up to 50 mm/year and gradually slowing over the first decade, with cumulative subsidence exceeding 100 mm locally; (b) an aggradation stage from approximately 15 to 30 years after fire, marked by ground uplift reaching 25 mm/year before gradually declining, compensating for the earlier subsidence; and (c) a stabilization stage beyond three to four decades, where permafrost nearly recovers to pre-fire conditions with indistinguishable deformation between burned and unburned areas. Notably, the rarely-reported uplift phase appears closely related to vegetation regeneration and fire-greening feedback that provide thermal protection, suggesting a critical mechanism of permafrost recovery. These findings provide new insights into the resilience of boreal-permafrost systems to wildfires and also underscore the importance of long-term InSAR monitoring in understanding permafrost responses to wildfires under climate change.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025AV001849","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144891714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Executive Order “Restoring Gold Standard Science” is Dangerous for America “恢复金本位科学”的行政命令对美国是危险的

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV002011

M. E. Wysession, L. Beal, G. Caprarelli, K. Caylor, G. Destouni, J. Dixon, Q. Duan, S. A. Hauck II, K. B. Karnauskas, K. Lajtha, N. Lugaz, A. Montanari, H. Nguyen, J. K. Parrish, A. V. Rowan, I. R. Santos, T. Schildgen, A. Schubnel, L. Tschirhart, M. A. Xenopoulos

{"title":"The Executive Order “Restoring Gold Standard Science” is Dangerous for America","authors":"M. E. Wysession, L. Beal, G. Caprarelli, K. Caylor, G. Destouni, J. Dixon, Q. Duan, S. A. Hauck II, K. B. Karnauskas, K. Lajtha, N. Lugaz, A. Montanari, H. Nguyen, J. K. Parrish, A. V. Rowan, I. R. Santos, T. Schildgen, A. Schubnel, L. Tschirhart, M. A. Xenopoulos","doi":"10.1029/2025AV002011","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025AV002011","url":null,"abstract":"The recent U.S. executive order “Restoring Gold Standard Science” poses a significant threat to the U.S. national economy and security. The order replaces the scientific experts who lead U.S. governmental scientific organizations with non-scientific political appointees who would have the power to decide what science could and could not be published. In doing so, the executive order threatens to reverse more than 80 years of scientific advancements that have given the U.S. its world-leading military, technology, and economy. The justifications provided in the executive order for this change in policy are false or misleading in their assessment and representation of the current state of U.S. scientific scholarship. Hypocritical in its aims, the executive order claims to promote integrity in science while at the same time calling to remove the “Framework for Federal Scientific Integrity Policy and Practice” that currently ensure veracity and credibility in science. The executive order is also unconstitutional, threatening to take away the First Amendment rights of scientists by punishing them if they publish truthful and accurate science that is contrary to the administration's political agenda. Such censorship of scientists has been attempted by failed governments of the past such as Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and early communist China, always with disastrous consequences for their citizens. “Restoring Gold Standard Science” needs to be rescinded to avoid catastrophic consequences for the U.S. economy and national security.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025AV002011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Glacier Geoengineering May Have Unintended Consequences for Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries 冰川地球工程可能对海洋生态系统和渔业产生意想不到的后果

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001732

Mark James Hopwood, Sascha Schiøtt, Hilde Oliver

{"title":"Glacier Geoengineering May Have Unintended Consequences for Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries","authors":"Mark James Hopwood, Sascha Schiøtt, Hilde Oliver","doi":"10.1029/2025AV001732","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025AV001732","url":null,"abstract":"Numerous proposed geoengineering schemes to mitigate climate change and its consequences are now widely discussed in the scientific literature. Sea level rise is a clear example of the implications of climate change with a further committed rise of at least 2–3 m embedded within the Earth System from +1.5°C of global warming. A bold suggestion to reduce sea level rise is to install underwater barriers to reduce the inflow of oceanic heat around Antarctica and Greenland. Inflow of warm, saline water masses drives ice melt and the destabilization of tidewater glaciers. Whilst the basic theory that barriers would stem oceanic heat flow is uncontroversial, the extent to which barriers might reduce future ice mass loss is less certain. There are numerous concerns about the viability and side-effects of this proposed intervention. We use existing field observations and representative fjord-scale models for the Greenland's largest glacier, Sermeq Kujalleq in the Ilulissat Icefjord, to suggest that there is already sufficient evidence to conclude that artificial barrier installation would have negative regional implications for marine productivity. The effects on fisheries are a concern as negative implications for Greenland's regional fisheries are unlikely to be socially acceptable. Increasing “geoengineeringization” of the Earth Sciences is likely to continue in coming decades as society grapples with the challenges of slowing climate change and mitigating its consequences. To produce beneficial results, the technical and social viabilities of geoengineering concepts need to be considered in parallel, with the latter determined in a complex social, economic and cultural nexus.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025AV001732","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Millennium of ENSO Influence on Jet Stream Driven Summer Climate Extremes ENSO对急流驱动的夏季极端气候的千年影响

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1029/2024AV001621

Ellie Broadman, Kai Kornhuber, Isabel Dorado-Liñán, Guobao Xu, Valérie Trouet

引用次数: 0

Accelerating River Discharge in High Mountain Asia 加速亚洲高山河流流量

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1029/2024AV001586

J. A. Flores, C. J. Gleason, C. Brown, N. Vergopolan, M. M. Lummus, L. A. Stearns, D. Li, L. C. Andrews, D. Basnyat, C. B. Brinkerhoff, R. Ducusin, D. Feng, E. Friedmann, X. He, M. Girotto, S. V. Kumar, R. B. Lammers, G. Lamsal, F. Z. Maina, A. R. McLarty, A. A. Proussevitch, E. Shevliakova, D. Subedi, J. Wang

{"title":"Accelerating River Discharge in High Mountain Asia","authors":"J. A. Flores, C. J. Gleason, C. Brown, N. Vergopolan, M. M. Lummus, L. A. Stearns, D. Li, L. C. Andrews, D. Basnyat, C. B. Brinkerhoff, R. Ducusin, D. Feng, E. Friedmann, X. He, M. Girotto, S. V. Kumar, R. B. Lammers, G. Lamsal, F. Z. Maina, A. R. McLarty, A. A. Proussevitch, E. Shevliakova, D. Subedi, J. Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024AV001586","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024AV001586","url":null,"abstract":"High Mountain Asia (HMA) plays a crucial role in Asian hydrology—its vast snow and glacier-covered landscape significantly influences downstream river water supply for billions of people. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of river discharge in HMA aids effective water resource management and infrastructure planning. In this study, we used a combination of hydrologic modeling and assimilation of remotely sensed discharge from Landsat and PlanetScope imagery to investigate how daily river discharge has changed for more than 114,000 reaches across HMA between 2004 and 2019. We observed significant increasing trends in river discharge for 11,113 reaches (∼10%), particularly in smaller rivers of the Syr Darya, Indus, Yangtze, and Yellow River basins. The ratio of total glacial melt and precipitation received by individual river reach showed an average significant increase of 2.2% per year, particularly in the Syr Darya, Amu Darya and Western Indus rivers. Across HMA, our results also indicate that 8% of river reaches with either planned and existing hydropower plants or dams experienced a statistically significant average increase of 2.9% per year in stream power. These findings illustrate the rapidly changing patterns of river discharge and stream power in HMA.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024AV001586","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Several Kilometers of Global Contraction on Mercury: A Sample-Size Independent Assessment of Fault Strain 水星上几公里的全球收缩：断层应变的样本大小独立评估

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001715

Stephan R. Loveless, Christian Klimczak

引用次数: 0

Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing 最近南半球副热带下平流层变暖与南极臭氧愈合

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-08-02 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001737

Aodhan Sweeney, Qiang Fu, Susan Solomon, Stephen Po-Chedley, William J. Randel, Andrea Steiner, Pu Lin, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, Peidong Wang

{"title":"Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing","authors":"Aodhan Sweeney, Qiang Fu, Susan Solomon, Stephen Po-Chedley, William J. Randel, Andrea Steiner, Pu Lin, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, Peidong Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025AV001737","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025AV001737","url":null,"abstract":"Observed temperature changes from 2002 to 2022 reveal a pronounced warming of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical lower stratosphere, and a cooling of the Antarctic lower stratosphere. In contrast, model simulations of 21st-century stratospheric temperature changes show widespread cooling driven by increasing greenhouse gases, with local warming in the Antarctic lower stratosphere due to ozone healing. We provide evidence that these discrepancies between observed and simulated stratospheric temperature changes are linked to a slowdown of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, particularly in the SH. These changes in the stratospheric circulation are strongest from October through December. This altered circulation warms the SH subtropical lower stratosphere while cooling the Antarctic lower stratosphere, canceling and even reversing the Antarctic ozone recovery that would have occurred in its absence during this period. When circulation changes are accounted for, the SH subtropical lower-stratospheric warming is removed, and Antarctic lower-stratospheric warming is revealed with enhanced ozone healing, highlighting the crucial role of the stratospheric circulation in shaping temperature and ozone changes.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025AV001737","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144758561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Role of ULF Waves in Reforming the Martian Bow Shock ULF波在重整火星弓形激波中的作用

IF 8.3

AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001654

Chi Zhang, Chuanfei Dong, Terry Z. Liu, Christian Mazelle, Savvas Raptis, Hongyang Zhou, Jacob Fruchtman, Jasper Halekas, Jing-Huan Li, Kathleen G. Hanley, Shannon M. Curry, David L. Mitchell, Xinmin Li

{"title":"Role of ULF Waves in Reforming the Martian Bow Shock","authors":"Chi Zhang, Chuanfei Dong, Terry Z. Liu, Christian Mazelle, Savvas Raptis, Hongyang Zhou, Jacob Fruchtman, Jasper Halekas, Jing-Huan Li, Kathleen G. Hanley, Shannon M. Curry, David L. Mitchell, Xinmin Li","doi":"10.1029/2025AV001654","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025AV001654","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the nature of planetary bow shocks is beneficial for advancing our knowledge of solar wind interactions with planets and fundamental plasma physics processes. Here, we utilize data from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) spacecraft to investigate the Martian bow shock, revealing its distinctive characteristics within our solar system. We find that unlike other planetary shocks, the reformation of Mars's bow shock driven by the ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves is more global and less dependent on shock geometries. This distinct behavior is attributed to the broad distribution of ULF waves in the upstream region at Mars, generated not only by shock-reflected ions but also by planetary protons. Additionally, during the reformation process, the amplitude of the ULF waves and the steepened structures are significantly large. This results in the newly reformed shock exceeding the original one, a phenomenon not observed at other planets under similar shock conditions. Therefore, the ULF waves significantly enhance the complexity of shock dynamics and play a more substantial role at Mars compared to other planets.","PeriodicalId":100067,"journal":{"name":"AGU Advances","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025AV001654","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0