Worku Gebeyehu Alemayehu, G. A. Zewdu, Kefyalew E. Adane
{"title":"Structural Transformation in Ethiopia’s Manufacturing Sector","authors":"Worku Gebeyehu Alemayehu, G. A. Zewdu, Kefyalew E. Adane","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i2.133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i2.133","url":null,"abstract":"This study assesses the extent of structural transformation within the manufacturing sector by discomposing the source of labour productivity and TFP growth, shares of capital, and employment among other indicators. For the sake of the analysis, the manufacturing sector is classified into three categories: resource-based, low technology, medium and high technology. Labour productivity and TFP growth were estimated using data between 1982/83–2017/18 to assess the reallocation of resources among industrial groups. The findings show that resource-based industries still hold the largest share of output and capital in the manufacturing sector, and remains to be the most productive group. Low technology industries continue to maintain the largest percentage of workers although there has been high rate of growth of workers in medium and high technology industries in recent years. Albeit the prevalence of a slight movement of workers from lower productive to higher productive industrial groups with a given productivity level, there is no evidence of dynamic reallocation or a movement of labour driven by productivity changes across industries. Static comparative advantages or natural resource endowments seem to induce the establishment of most industries in Ethiopia, although these same industries heavily rely on imported inputs. In addition, government policies tend to favour resource-based and low technology industries in the form of, for instance, the provision of working premises and infrastructural facilities such as power through the establishment of industrial parks. Thus, there is a need to improve institutional and policy enablers to address existing binding constraints and strengthen inter-sectoral linkages not only to efficiently tap the available domestic resources, but also pave the way for the growth of medium and high technology industries as a pathway for faster pace of industrialization and economic development.\u0000JEL: D24 J63 L63 O490","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140477998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ill Health and Labour Market Participation in Tanzania: Empirical Evidence from Tanzania National Panel Surveys","authors":"Abdilah Issa, Cornel Joseph, R. Lokina","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i2.143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i2.143","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of ill health status on labour participation in Tanzania using panel methods with data extracted from three waves of the National Panel Survey datasets of 2010/11, 2012/13, and the extended panel of 2019/20. Based on estimated random effect probit models, the results show that chronic ill health status has a significant negative effect on labour market participation in Tanzania. By locality, both chronic and acute ill health are significant and negative on labour participation in rural areas; whereas by sex chronic ill health is significant and negative on male’s participation. Therefore, the study recommends the adoption of more effective policies and interventions to reduce the prevalence of chronic and acute illness so as to bring more Tanzanians into the labour force. Also, it recommends mainstream employment policy actions to support those with partial work capacity from incurable ill health conditions to take up jobs.","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"78 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140470826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effects of Climate Variability on Economic Growth in Uganda","authors":"Hennery Sebukeera, Ibrahim Mukisa, Edward Bbaale","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i2.130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i2.130","url":null,"abstract":"A key criticism of Uganda’s macroeconomic modelling frameworks is the lack of accounting for the effects of climate change. As a result, the demand for sustainable climate change evidence-based policy actions is higher than ever, making this a key issue in policy discussions. However, climate change research in Uganda has been piecemeal, with a few using case studies of agricultural commodities, regions, or agriculture. Thus, using the endogenous economic growth framework, this study estimated the long-term and short-term direct and indirect-sectoral effects of climate change on Uganda’s economic growth using the vector error correction model and Johansen cointegration econometric analysis methods. The results show that climate change (precipitation) affects agriculture and industry sectoral output growth in a positive direction, and service sectoral output growth in a negative direction. Further, climate change (temperature) affects agriculture and industry sectoral output growth in a negative direction, and service sectoral output growth in a positive direction. The study’s main conclusion is that an increase in temperature by 1.0 degrees Celsius accounts for a reduction in economic growth by approximately 2.5 percentage points, keeping all other factors constant. The study recommends accounting for climate change effects in macroeconomic growth frameworks, and implementing key sectoral specific climate sustainability measures.\u0000JEL Classification: C22, 250, 047, Q54","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"181 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140475985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aaron Ecel, Dennis Nuwagaba, Edward Udhec Rubanga, Patrick Mudidi
{"title":"The Competitiveness of Uganda’s Non-traditional Agricultural Exports: The Case of Flowers Exports","authors":"Aaron Ecel, Dennis Nuwagaba, Edward Udhec Rubanga, Patrick Mudidi","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i2.134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i2.134","url":null,"abstract":"Flowers exports make a significant proportion of Uganda’s non-traditional agricultural export (NTAE) earnings. This study aimed to gain deeper insights into the extent to which the competitiveness of Uganda’s floricultural exports is associated with market distribution, commodity composition and competitiveness effect; and thus establish whether Uganda’s NTAEs are based on favourable commodity compositions, and are destined for relatively faster-growing markets. The data was extracted from the UN Comtrade database; and the base period was 2015–2018. For analysis, the study employed the Constant Market Share method that enables the identification of factors driving changes in export performance, and thus determine which factors are contributing positively or negatively to export growth. It also used the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, which enabled a simple and straightforward comparison of competitiveness. The study finds that Uganda heavily relies on a single export market (Netherlands) for its earning from roses and unrooted cuttings. In the chosen base period, Uganda’s market share in the Netherlands increased by 2.4%, while that of roses’ exports declined by 9.2%. The favourable export performance of unrooted cuttings and slips were predominantly attributed to the commodity effect, which accounted for 62.9% of the export growth; while the unfavourable export performance of Uganda roses in the same base period was attributed to the competitiveness in the period (-221.6%). The results of the RCA showed that while both commodities enjoyed a comparative advantage in the base period, that of roses was steadily declining. The study was motivated by the need to increase gains from export diversification in the context of NTAEs, from the perspective of a country that predominantly relies on traditional agricultural commodities for its exports.","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"38 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140479203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"COVID-19: How Tax Policy Responses Affected Uganda’s Economy","authors":"Ronald Ochen, P. Lakuma","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i2.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i2.111","url":null,"abstract":"We examined the impact of COVID-19-induced tax policy adjustments on Uganda’s gross domestic product. The analysis is based on a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of Ugandan quarterly data (2009 to 2021). We find that a one standard deviation positive tax policy shock has a negative effect on Uganda’s GDP. Likewise, a one standard deviation positive shock on the consumer price index has a negative effect on the GDP. Thus, we recommend that instead of fiscal provisions in tax cuts and deferrals to micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and households, the government should focus more on raising expenditure on the private sector MSMEs and households, which would stimulate private demand and productivity and sustain domestic revenue collections, particularly from MSMEs. We also recommend the stabilization of food prices, which are the main drivers of the consumer price index in Uganda, to raise GDP growth. Our results provide new insights into the effects of tax policy responses on GDP amidst a global health crisis that has muted economic activities.\u0000JEL Classification: B22, C54, E62","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"236 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140471928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Empowerment of Tanzanian Women Through Ownership of Tourism Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)","authors":"B. Mkenda","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i2.138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i2.138","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how Tanzanian women are empowered through the ownership of tourism micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs); evaluates the effects of economic empowerment on their welfare; and discusses the challenges they face when running them. Using data on 475 women in Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar, the empirical method used compares selected empowerment indicators before and after the women started their businesses. To determine the significance of the difference in monthly income earned and percentage contribution to household income, we use a non-parametric test. We find that owning tourism MSMEs empowers women by increasing their monthly income and contribution to household income, decision making in the enterprise and household, and allowing them to own assets. Women face challenges in obtaining inputs and accessing credit when starting and operating tourism MSMEs, lack capital to start and expand their businesses, and business management skills. Other constraints include high interest rates and difficult loan application procedures. Providing information on government funding opportunities, incorporating training in bank financial schemes, and simplifying loan application procedures to encourage women to apply for loans are the suggested measures to increase the empowerment effects of tourism MSMEs.","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"381 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140477020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vincent Ssajjabbi, J. Sseruyange, John Ddumba Ssentamu
{"title":"Adoption of Improved Cassava Varieties in Uganda: What Does Agricultural Extension Do?","authors":"Vincent Ssajjabbi, J. Sseruyange, John Ddumba Ssentamu","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i1.107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i1.107","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural production, especially by smallholder farmers, is often hampered byinsufficient knowledge about better farm inputs or farming practices, low adoption toimproved agricultural technologies, or low diffusion of agricultural innovations by theinventing institutions. This paper examines the role of agricultural extension to theadoption of improved cassava varieties in Uganda. We indicate for agricultural extensionusing the farmers’ reported accessibility to agricultural extension from extension workersabout such improved varieties. We use probit with selection equation on data collectedfrom eight (8) districts in Northern Uganda. Our main results indicate a higherprobability of adopting improved cassava varieties when farmers access agriculturalextension services; and also document farmers’ distrust to improved cassava varieties asa crop enterprise that can guarantee their households with food security. From a policyperspective, our results suggest that the design and content of agricultural extensionservices are important to leverage the extent of the adoption of modern agriculturaltechnologies. Specifically, improving the performance of the cassava crop enterpriserequires enhanced investment in diffusing innovations in the enterprise.JEL Classification: O12, O13, O33, Q16","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75763839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Role of Remittances, Financial Inclusion and Governance on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"J. Ogede, I. Odusanya, Musa Oduola, O. E. Atoyebi","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i1.106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i1.106","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of this study is to analyse the role of financial inclusion, governance, andremittances on growth in Sub-Saharan African countries (SSA), as well as themoderating influence of the role of financial inclusion on the remittances-growth nexus,using panel data spanning 1996–2020. Data were collected through secondary sources,including World Bank and IMF reports for the period 1996–2020. By using a principalcomponent analysis method, we constructed composite FI indexes to measure the degreeof FI. Cross-sectional dependence, slope homogeneity, and pooled mean grouping (PMG)are employed to evaluate the stated objectives. The study findings showed thatremittances have a significant positive relationship with economic growth, and thatpositive financial inclusion moderates the remittance-growth nexus in SSA countries.Given the findings that the level of governance has an adverse influence on growth, hencestakeholders should improve financial infrastructure, which provides the underlyinginstrument for financial inclusion, and protect customers by instituting controls andprocedures for reporting, fairness, and resorting to SSA countries. Governments shouldalso promote the larger global remittances agenda, which includes leveragingremittances for better consumer and business financing, and exposure to global financialmarkets through refinancing and the issue of diaspora bonds.JEL Classifications: C1; F6; G2; O4","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"76 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80844871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Analysis of the Production of Root-vegetables by Small-Scale Farmers in Mbulu District","authors":"Barikiel Panga, Siamarie Lyaro","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i1.163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i1.163","url":null,"abstract":"The production of vegetables supports farmer’s food security and income generation. Thispaper seeks to analyse the production of root-vegetables by small-scale farmers in MbuluDistrict, Tanzania. The paper applied a cross-section design and a two-stage sampling toobtain 120 farmers producing either carrots or Irish potatoes. Results from the CobbDouglas production function showed that farm area and inputs cost were significantfactors that influenced production of carrots; while farm area, labour, inputs cost, andequipment cost were significant factors that influenced the production of potatoes.Furthermore, results from multiple regression showed that income of root-vegetablesgrowers decreased significantly with the production of potatoes compared to carrots; butincreased significantly with farm area. The findings highlight the need for the Ministryresponsible for Agriculture to offer agricultural extension services regarding optimalproduction of root-vegetables for sustainable increased returns to scale in the long-run.JEL Classification: D24, C30","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90341370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impacts of Export Bans and Seasonality on Maize Price Transmission Between Selected Deficit and Surplus Markets in Tanzania: Evidence from Sumbawanga Market","authors":"Florence Sitima, John K. Mduma","doi":"10.56279/ter.v13i1.125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v13i1.125","url":null,"abstract":"Using maize prices data from Tanzania’s National Bureau of Statistics from 2002through 2017, this paper analyses the impacts of export bans and seasonality onspatial domestic price transmission between deficit markets and the surplusSumbawanga market; using a vector error correction (VEC) model with export banand seasonality dummy variables. Results show that 45% of deficit markets convergedin the long-run with the Sumbawanga market, with a significant negative sign at 10%level. Moreover, 64% of market pairs negatively impacted spatial domestic pricetransmission, while seasonality had significant impacts on the same between marketpairs. A Granger causality suggests that 63%, 27%, and 10% of market pairs were bidirectional, unidirectional and no causality, respectively. Thus, government policiesshould incline towards increaseing maize production rather than imposing ad-hocexport bans, improving storage facilities, and mitigating climate changes to insulateseasonality: all of which will—through market mechanism—moderate consumerprices and ensure profitability among maize sellers.JEL Classification: Q17, M38","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"260 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79689284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}