Annals of Operations Research最新文献

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Complexity Bounds for Deterministic Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes 确定性部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程的复杂度界
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06282-0
Cyrille Vessaire, Pierre Carpentier, Jean-Philippe Chancelier, Michel De Lara, Alejandro Rodríguez-Martínez
{"title":"Complexity Bounds for Deterministic Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes","authors":"Cyrille Vessaire,&nbsp;Pierre Carpentier,&nbsp;Jean-Philippe Chancelier,&nbsp;Michel De Lara,&nbsp;Alejandro Rodríguez-Martínez","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06282-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06282-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes (<span>Pomdp</span>) share the structure of Markov Decision Processs (<span>Mdp</span>) — with stages, states, actions, probability transitions, rewards — but for the notion of solutions. In a <span>Pomdp</span>, observation mappings provide partial and/or imperfect knowledge of the state, and a policy maps observations (and not states like in a <span>Mdp</span>) towards actions. Theroretically, a <span>Pomdp</span> can be solved by Dynamic Programming (DP), but with an information state made of probability distributions over the original state, hence DP suffers from the curse of dimensionality, even in the finite case. This is why, authors like (Littman, M. L. 1996). Algorithms for Sequential Decision Making. PhD thesis, Brown University) and (Bonet, B. 2009). Deterministic POMDPs revisited. In <i>Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, UAI ’09</i> (pp. 59-66). Arlington, Virginia, USA. AUAI Press) have studied the subclass of so-called Deterministic Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes (<span>Det-Pomdp</span>), where transitions and observations mappings are deterministic. In this paper, we improve on Littman’s complexity bounds. We then introduce and study a more restricted class, Separated <span>Det-Pomdp</span>s, and give some new complexity bounds for this class.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"344 1","pages":"345 - 382"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142912746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal asset allocation and nonlinear return predictability from the dividend-price ratio
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06332-7
Fabrizio Ghezzi, Anindo Sarkar, Thomas Quistgaard Pedersen, Allan Timmermann
{"title":"Optimal asset allocation and nonlinear return predictability from the dividend-price ratio","authors":"Fabrizio Ghezzi,&nbsp;Anindo Sarkar,&nbsp;Thomas Quistgaard Pedersen,&nbsp;Allan Timmermann","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06332-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06332-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study non-linear predictability of stock returns arising from the dividend-price ratio and its implications for asset allocation decisions. Using data from five countries — U.S., U.K., France, Germany and Japan — we find empirical evidence supporting non-linear and time-varying models for the equity risk premium. Building on this, we examine several model specifications that can account for non-linear return predictability, including Markov switching models, regression trees, random forests and neural networks. Although in-sample return regressions and portfolio allocation results support the use of non-linear predictability models, the out-of-sample evidence is notably weaker, highlighting the difficulty in exploiting non-linear predictability in real time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 1","pages":"415 - 445"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-024-06332-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal environmental regulation and firms’ location choice under yield uncertainty 收益不确定性下的最优环境规制与企业区位选择
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06225-9
Bin Wei, Nengmin Wang, Bin Jiang, Zhengwen He
{"title":"Optimal environmental regulation and firms’ location choice under yield uncertainty","authors":"Bin Wei,&nbsp;Nengmin Wang,&nbsp;Bin Jiang,&nbsp;Zhengwen He","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06225-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06225-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Environmental regulations have led to firms considering offshoring their production to avoid compliance costs. However, overseas production comes with yield uncertainty. This study examines optimal environmental regulations and firms’ responses under three production scenarios. The government’s objective is to maximize social welfare by selecting the type and intensity of regulatory instruments, while firms seek to optimize profits by adjusting their optimal production quantities. Our analysis finds that price and quantity regulation instruments have similar impacts on social welfare, but firms prefer quantity instruments despite price instruments being more beneficial for consumers. Furthermore, both pollution damage coefficient and yield uncertainty are important factors affecting social welfare and firms’ location choice and there exist win–win situations that benefit the government, firms, and consumers. Additionally, offshoring tends to be more environmentally friendly to the local environment. To further validate the main model, we examine various extensions. Results show that the hybrid instrument does not significantly enhance social welfare, but it does offer flexibility in adjusting firms’ production transfer motivations. Additionally, factors such as positive production and fixed costs, as well as multi-market issues, do not alter the government’s preference for regulatory instruments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"344 1","pages":"413 - 456"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142913067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
20 years review of the multi actor multi criteria analysis (MAMCA) framework: a proposition of a systematic guideline 多参与者多标准分析(MAMCA)框架的20年回顾:一个系统性指导方针的命题
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06357-y
He Huang, Shary Heuninckx, Cathy Macharis
{"title":"20 years review of the multi actor multi criteria analysis (MAMCA) framework: a proposition of a systematic guideline","authors":"He Huang,&nbsp;Shary Heuninckx,&nbsp;Cathy Macharis","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06357-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06357-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) involves evaluating alternatives based on a comprehensive set of conflicting criteria, often requiring the involvement of varied decision makers. This has led to the emergence of stakeholder-based multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) frameworks. However, traditional MCGDM frequently overlooks the interactions and trade-offs among different actors and criteria. The Multi-actor Multi-criteria Analysis (MAMCA), developed in 2000, provides a transparent decision-making process explicitly considering these interrelationships. It allows diverse stakeholder groups to represent their priorities, thereby enhancing their understanding of their own and others’ positions. Over the past two decades, MAMCA has seen a significant rise in popularity and has been widely applied in diverse contexts, proving valuable as both a decision-making and stakeholder engagement tool. However, our analysis of publications on cases in which MAMCA was applied over the years shows that considerable variation exists in the overall process approach, contingent upon the specific goals and context. To address these variations, this paper proposes a modularized MAMCA structure, complemented by systematic application guidelines, to aid future users in navigating the process steps and identifying the most suitable methods for each step. Additionally, future research directions are suggested for potential enhancements to the MAMCA framework by integrating varied methodologies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"343 1","pages":"313 - 348"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-024-06357-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142789277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conditional shortfall risk of lifetime consumption
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06316-7
Tom Anichini, Jim Grabot, Sherrie Grabot, Ming Yee Wang, Ganlin Xu, Louis van Zijl
{"title":"Conditional shortfall risk of lifetime consumption","authors":"Tom Anichini,&nbsp;Jim Grabot,&nbsp;Sherrie Grabot,&nbsp;Ming Yee Wang,&nbsp;Ganlin Xu,&nbsp;Louis van Zijl","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06316-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06316-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores options to generate Markowitz efficient frontiers, from which a suitable portfolio is recommended to retirees. The risk measures of these options are the standard deviations of asset returns, variance of normalized present values of discounted consumption, shortfall risk, and conditional shortfall risk, or the combinations of them. We report the shortfall risk and conditional shortfall risk for all these efficient portfolios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 1","pages":"623 - 644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI-based decision support systems for sustainable business management under circular economy 基于人工智能的决策支持系统,促进循环经济下的可持续企业管理
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06347-0
Muhammet Deveci, Dursun Delen, Weiping Ding
{"title":"AI-based decision support systems for sustainable business management under circular economy","authors":"Muhammet Deveci,&nbsp;Dursun Delen,&nbsp;Weiping Ding","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06347-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06347-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"342 1","pages":"1 - 3"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142587773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Harry Markowitz’s contributions to utility theory
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06210-2
Jack Clark Francis
{"title":"Harry Markowitz’s contributions to utility theory","authors":"Jack Clark Francis","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06210-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06210-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Harry Markowitz is widely recognized to be the father of portfolio theory. But, for unknown reasons, his substantial contributions to utility theory are less well-known. Daniel Bernoulli is widely renowned for explaining the Saint Petersburg paradox. Most people recognize Adam Smith as being the father of capitalism. Some people are aware that Carl Menger (1840–1921) was one of the first to discuss (in German) diminishing marginal utility. Jules Dupuit (1804–1866) distinguished between total utility and marginal utility and, in the process, he went on to discover the consumers’ surplus. Although it is not widely recognized, Herman Heinrich Gossen (1810–1858) was the first economists to explain that the fundamental principle of marginal utility theory is that a person maximizes his utility when he distributes his available money among the various goods so that he obtains the same amount of satisfaction from the last unit of money spent on each different commodity. After explaining the Saint Petersburg paradox earlier in his career comma, Daniel Bernoulli later brought many utility suggestions together into one tidy package, and even went on to suggest that decision-maker’s decisions can probably be best represented by the logarithmic utility function. Each one of the previous contributions to utility theory constitutes a significant improvement in the previous theory. But in 1952 Harry Markowitz published several suggestions that each represented a significant advancement to the existing utility theory. The value of Markowitz’s suggestions was acknowledged in 1979 and 1992 by two psychologists named Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky when they introduced their prospect theory. These co-authors list and discuss several of Markowitz’s contributions to expected utility theory in their 1979 prospect theory paper.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 1","pages":"113 - 125"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contemporary approaches in matheuristics an updated survey 数学中的当代方法:最新调查
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06302-z
Marco Antonio Boschetti, Vittorio Maniezzo
{"title":"Contemporary approaches in matheuristics an updated survey","authors":"Marco Antonio Boschetti,&nbsp;Vittorio Maniezzo","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06302-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06302-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Matheuristics are problem independent frameworks that use mathematical programming tools to obtain high quality heuristic solutions. They are structurally general enough to be applied to different problems with little adaptation to their abstract structure, so they can be considered as new or hybrid metaheuristics based on components derived from the mathematical model of the problems of interest. In this survey, we emphasize the mathematical tools and describe how they can be used to design heuristics. We focus on mixed-integer linear programming and report representative examples from the literature of how it has been used for effective heuristic optimization. References to contributions to matheuristics deriving from neighboring research areas such as Artificial Intelligence or Quantum Computing are also included. We conclude with some ideas for possible future developments. This paper extends an original version published in 4OR with new sections on CMSA, Incremental Core, AI hybrids and Quantum Heuristics, and includes references to several recent publications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"343 2021-2023)","pages":"663 - 700"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-024-06302-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142826132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mean-variance and mean-ETL optimizations in portfolio selection: an update
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06337-2
Barret Pengyuan Shao, John B. Guerard Jr., Ganlin Xu
{"title":"Mean-variance and mean-ETL optimizations in portfolio selection: an update","authors":"Barret Pengyuan Shao,&nbsp;John B. Guerard Jr.,&nbsp;Ganlin Xu","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06337-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06337-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this research update, we apply the Mean-Variance (MV) and Mean-Expected Tail Loss (ETL) portfolio optimization techniques on earnings forecasting and robust regression-based composite models. A time series model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) innovations is applied to generate the out-of-sample scenarios for the portfolio optimization. We report that (1) a composite variable of analysts’ forecasts, revisions, and direction of analysts’ revisions continues to produce value in portfolio construction; (2) robust regression-based models continue to produce meaningful active returns; and (3) the Mean-Variance and Mean-ETL portfolio optimizations produce statistically significant active returns, passing the Markowitz and Xu (Journal of Portfolio Management 21:1–60, 1994) data mining corrections test.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 1","pages":"657 - 671"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Blockchain-enabled supply chain finance model: a study of the dual-channel closed-loop supply chain of electronic products 基于区块链的供应链金融模式:电子产品双通道闭环供应链研究
IF 4.4 3区 管理学
Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06320-x
Quanpeng Chen, Xiaogang Chen, Shu Li, Jun Chen
{"title":"Blockchain-enabled supply chain finance model: a study of the dual-channel closed-loop supply chain of electronic products","authors":"Quanpeng Chen,&nbsp;Xiaogang Chen,&nbsp;Shu Li,&nbsp;Jun Chen","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06320-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06320-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in supply chains often struggle to obtain external financial resources from banks, due to their poor supply chain visibility. Prior studies suggest that adopting blockchain technology can enhance supply chain visibility, thus facilitating access to supply chain finance (SCF). In this study, we compare the traditional SCF mode with the blockchain-enabled SCF mode within the framework of a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC). Our analysis incorporates both prepayment financing and accounts receivable financing or purchase order financing into the analytical model. Our main findings are as follows. Firstly, adopting blockchain technology leads to a reduction in the interest rate, enabling the manufacturer and the retailer to raise their buy-back prices. This increase in buy-back prices subsequently encourages greater recycling of used products. Secondly, in a context marked by high cross-price elasticity, we observe abrupt pricing fluctuations in both online and offline sales channels. However, adopting blockchain technology can effectively mitigates these fluctuations, thus ensuring the sustained stability of demand in both sales channels. Thirdly, in the blockchain-enabled mode, equilibrium wholesale price, offline sales price, manufacturer’s buy-back price, and retailer’s buy-back price are higher compared to those in the traditional mode. Conversely, the equilibrium direct sales price is lower in the blockchain-enabled mode than in the traditional mode. Fourthly, changes in interest rates and cross-price elasticity have analogous impacts on pricing dynamics in both the traditional and blockchain-enabled modes. Fifthly, adopting blockchain technology leads to an all-win outcome for participants in SCF arrangements only when the benefits of blockchain-enabled traceability and reduced interest rates outweigh the costs associated with hosting and access.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"343 1","pages":"87 - 124"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142789387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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