{"title":"The New National Party in the 1999 election: end of the road or a new beginning?","authors":"H. Kotzé","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705078","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the 1999 election support for the New National Party (NNP) dramatically collapsed. This article critically assesses the NNP's electoral strategy and performance. In particular, by emphasising the NNP's consensual opposition style and through constructing an ‘Opposition Index’, it is argued that the prospects for the New National Party may not be as bleak as is commonly assumed.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"297 1","pages":"167-177"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79554746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Democracy for a bargain: the 1999 election in KwaZulu‐Natal","authors":"L. Piper","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705076","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract While the IFP/ANC race for first place in KwaZulu‐Natal was the closest of any in the country, the 1999 election was both freer and fairer than ever before, and the result was readily accepted by all parties. In short, the 1999 election further consolidated both the institutions and culture of liberal democracy. Importantly, this consolidation was predicated in an understanding reached between the IFP and ANC that, whatever the outcome of the election, they would co‐operate in government at both national level and in KwaZulu‐Natal. In so doing, the stakes of the election were lowered, making a free and fair election not just more affordable but also desirable so as to legitimate future governance. This deal is further confirmation of the trend in KwaZulu‐Natal politics away from the ethnically couched confrontational styles of the transition years towards a more ideologically inclusive and co‐operative politics. This trend, along with the basic patterns of party affiliation, suggest that KwaZulu‐...","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"84 1","pages":"145-154"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89854029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The struggle for a place called home: the ANC versus the UDM in the Eastern Cape","authors":"R. Southall","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705077","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The birth of the UDM constituted a particular challenge to the ANC in the Eastern Cape. In one of the poorest provinces, which incorporated the former homelands of Ciskei and Transkei, the ANC provincial government had been faced by challenges which threatened to erode its base amongst its traditional constituency. The UDM sought to exploit these discontents by cultivating the chiefs and the former Transkeian elite. The ANC responded by its own battle for the chiefs and by deploying national leaders to campaign in Transkei. Even if the UDM fails to develop a national appeal, it may remain an important player in the Eastern Cape.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"5 1","pages":"155-166"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74699581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Election ‘99: was there a ‘coloured’ and ‘Indian’ vote?","authors":"A. Habib, S. Naidu","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705080","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the Run‐up to the 1999 elections, both academia and the media assumed that there would be a ‘coloured’ and ‘Indian’ vote. This article challenges this assumption through a disaggregation of the election results. It illustrates an electoral heterogeneity within these communities with various classes voting in different ways. Moreover, the article demonstrates that lower income coloured and indian people were more reluctant to vote for the ANC while the more privileged sectors threw in their lot with the ruling party. It concludes that this is largely the result of the simultaneous application of an affirmative action policy with a neo‐liberal economic programme; the results of which enhance the material vulnerability of the poorest sectors of the indian and coloured communities.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"8 1","pages":"189-199"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88591533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interpreting the South African election of June 1999","authors":"Rupert Taylor, Thabisi Hoeane","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705075","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract After briefly reviewing the campaign and results of the South African election of 2 June 1999, this article outlines the dominant view that the election is best interpreted in terms of a pre‐specified conception of racial and ethnic identity (particularly with regard to party campaigning and voting behaviour). The article contests this racialized reading of the election, and through emphasizing the importance of economic and class considerations, argues that there is a need for a more complex and critically informed interpretation.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"11 1","pages":"133-144"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84193522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Free and fair: voters’ evaluation of the 1999 election","authors":"J. Olivier, S. Rule","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705083","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A representative sample survey of voters conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) on Election Day revealed that the vast majority of South African voters believe that the election was free and fair, with marginal differences in opinion between racial groups. Most voters lived in close proximity to a voting station and were able to reach it on foot. Although lengthy queues delayed voting at some voting stations, one in two voters waited for less than 30 minutes before voting. Less than 2 per cent indicated that they had been under pressure to vote for a particular party. These positive perceptions, together with the relatively high percentage poll, signal a high degree of national consensus across racial and party political divides about the legitimacy of the election process in South Africa.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"4 1","pages":"225-234"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84954982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The united Democratic Movement: a critical assessment","authors":"M. Ndletyana","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705079","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The formation of the United Democratic Movement (UDM) led to speculation that the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) would be threatened. The popularity of its leaders—Bantu Holomisa and Roelf Meyer—promised to give the party a significant support base. In the June 1999 election the UDM obtained 3.42 per cent of the national vote. In less than two years of its existence, and despite financial difficulties and lack of a national profile in the period leading up to the election, it managed to become the fifth biggest party. This article argues, however, that the UDM is unlikely to feature prominently beyond the next election. Its support base is regionally concentrated and is built on short‐term interests that the ruling party has started to address.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"8 1","pages":"179-188"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80122301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Globalisation and democratisation: the prospects for social democracy in South Africa","authors":"Thomas A. Koelble","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705086","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The prospects for social democracy in South Africa are assessed in the context of Gray's (1998) False Dawn and Hermann Giliomee and Charles Simkins’ (eds, 1999) The Awkward Embrace. Contrary to these authors, it is maintained that governments in lesser‐developed countries do have options in shaping their economic and social policies, can escape the dictates of neo‐liberal orthodoxy, and chart a path towards a social democratic outcome in which the state achieves heightened legitimacy.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"21 1","pages":"259-268"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75076571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Election 1999 and scenarios for opposition politics in South Africa","authors":"S. Booysen","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705085","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article explores, through the mapping and projection of a range of scenario paths, the future possibilities for opposition party politics in South Africa. The article discusses pre‐election, election and post‐election trends towards potential realignment in opposition politics, as well as trends indicating the affirmation and amplification of pre‐existing tendencies in party politics. The analysis draws on a number of interviews with party political actors, media monitoring and direct observation by the author.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"42 1","pages":"249-258"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76148093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Judgement and choice in the 1999 South African election","authors":"Robert Mattes, Helen Taylor, Cherrel Africa","doi":"10.1080/02589349908705084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02589349908705084","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this article, we set out the basic points of the theoretical framework of voter choice that underlie the Opinion ’99 research project. In contrast to prevailing theories that have characterized voter choice in South Africa as an ethnic or racial census, this approach emphasizes the role of how voters learn about government performance and the alternatives offered by opposition parties. We then deduce a very simplified model that consciously excludes all ‘structural’ variables and includes only measures of voter evaluations of government performance and views of political parties and candidates. We use discriminant analysis (DA) to predict the partisan preferences of respondents from a nationally representative September 1998 survey with these measures. We find that the partisan choices of a very large majority of South Africans can be correctly predicted with this model.","PeriodicalId":81644,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commonwealth political studies","volume":"16 1","pages":"235-247"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82274082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}