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Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy最新文献

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The interplay of geopolitics and agricultural commodity prices 地缘政治与农产品价格的相互作用
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13481
Raghav Goyal, Edouard Mensah, Sandro Steinbach
{"title":"The interplay of geopolitics and agricultural commodity prices","authors":"Raghav Goyal,&nbsp;Edouard Mensah,&nbsp;Sandro Steinbach","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13481","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to assess the impact of geopolitical risk and shocks on agricultural commodity markets, accounting for demand—exports; supply—input prices; inventory; speculation; and economic fluctuations. The results show that geopolitical risks significantly impact corn and soybean futures prices and market behaviors with context-specific implications in the short to medium term. In addition, heightened geopolitical risk during the Russia–Ukraine war increased oil prices and indirectly elevated agricultural commodity prices. These insights are crucial for agricultural risk management, informing federal policies and forecasting future price trends in an increasingly uncertain global market environment.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"46 4","pages":"1533-1562"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142665762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are we measuring impact accurately? Identifying potential sources of bias in the evaluation of extension personnel and programs 我们是否准确地衡量了影响？在评估推广人员和项目时，识别潜在的偏见来源
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13478
Andrew Wright, Jeffrey Wright, Dean McCorkle, Jeffrey Hyde
{"title":"Are we measuring impact accurately? Identifying potential sources of bias in the evaluation of extension personnel and programs","authors":"Andrew Wright,&nbsp;Jeffrey Wright,&nbsp;Dean McCorkle,&nbsp;Jeffrey Hyde","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13478","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Agricultural extension programs must demonstrate their value to compete for limited government funding. As extension professionals measure the value of their programs, the risk exists that the information they report will provide a biased or an inaccurate measure of value. We examine the evaluation process for extension programs and extension personnel to identify potential sources of bias or inaccuracies. We find that bias and inaccuracy in program evaluation often stems from a focus on short-term outcomes, rather than long-term impacts, while bias in personnel evaluation can result from information asymmetries that exist between extension personnel and their evaluators.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"47 1","pages":"49-64"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aepp.13478","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Combine harvester outsourcing services and seasonal rural non-farm employment in Myanmar 缅甸联合收割机外包服务和季节性农村非农业就业
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13480
Ben Belton, Peixun Fang, Thomas Reardon
{"title":"Combine harvester outsourcing services and seasonal rural non-farm employment in Myanmar","authors":"Ben Belton,&nbsp;Peixun Fang,&nbsp;Thomas Reardon","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13480","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Prior research on mechanization outsource services has not explored seasonal variations in drivers and outcomes of adoption by smallholders. These omissions are important because seasonality of crop cultivation may influence intensity of demand for machines, while seasonality of demand for non-farm labor may influence the availability and cost of agricultural workers and the opportunity costs of on-farm self-employment. We analyze seasonal correlates of combine harvester outsource service use in Myanmar. Surprisingly, adoption is not associated with lower labor costs or higher net margins from paddy cultivation. Rather, using combines releases family labor into more remunerative dry season non-farm employment.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"47 1","pages":"97-124"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aepp.13480","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A machine learning-based exploration of resilience and food security 基于机器学习的复原力和粮食安全探索
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13475
Alexis H. Villacis, Syed Badruddoza, Ashok K. Mishra
{"title":"A machine learning-based exploration of resilience and food security","authors":"Alexis H. Villacis,&nbsp;Syed Badruddoza,&nbsp;Ashok K. Mishra","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13475","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aepp.13475","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Leveraging advancements in remote data collection and using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) as a proxy measure of resilience, we show that machine learning models (such as Gradient Boosting Classifier, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Artificial Neural Networks), can predict resilience with relatively high accuracy (up to 81%). Key household-level predictors include access to financial institutions, asset ownership, the adoption of agricultural mechanization as evidenced by the use of tractors, the number of crops cultivated, and ownership of nonfarm enterprises. Our analysis offers insights to researchers and policymakers interested in the development of targeted interventions to bolster household resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"46 4","pages":"1479-1505"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aepp.13475","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142247529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Food assistance programs in China: Evolution, challenges and potential for improvement 中国的粮食援助项目：发展、挑战和改进潜力
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13476
Jingjing Wang, Xinyue Ding, Shenggen Fan
{"title":"Food assistance programs in China: Evolution, challenges and potential for improvement","authors":"Jingjing Wang,&nbsp;Xinyue Ding,&nbsp;Shenggen Fan","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13476","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Food assistance, in its various forms, has played a significant role in tackling food insecurity and improving nutrition in many countries. Through an examination of the historical development and a comparison with other countries, the paper reviews the experiences and lessons of the evolution of Chinese food assistance programs and proposes pathways forward to further strengthen food assistance in China. Future efforts of food assistance should focus more on improving the effectiveness of programs through enhancing governance and public-private partnerships, conducting evidence-based evaluations of existing programs using data-driven methods, adopting innovative technologies and digital tools, and employing a targeted approach to address the issue of double burden of malnutrition.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"47 1","pages":"65-79"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environmental policy behavioral spillovers: The impact of California's single-use carryout bag ban on the use of unregulated single-use plastics 环境政策的行为溢出效应：加州一次性手提袋禁令对使用不受管制的一次性塑料制品的影响
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-08 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13473
Sungeun Yoon, Lisa House, Zhifeng Gao
{"title":"Environmental policy behavioral spillovers: The impact of California's single-use carryout bag ban on the use of unregulated single-use plastics","authors":"Sungeun Yoon,&nbsp;Lisa House,&nbsp;Zhifeng Gao","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13473","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aepp.13473","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the spillover effect of California's 2016 single-use bag ban (SB 270) on unregulated single-use plastics (SUPs) like cutlery, cups, and plates. We observed an insignificant 4.8% decrease in SUP sales over the entire post-policy period, but a larger 8.1% drop in the second post-year, which was only marginally significant. The findings suggest weak spillover effects from such environmental policies, indicating that direct regulations on certain environmentally harmful products might be more effective if jurisdictions aim to prohibit citizens from excessive use, rather than relying on the positive spillover effect from existing policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"47 1","pages":"372-393"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global economic effects of war-induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine 战争导致乌克兰农产品出口下降的全球经济影响
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13468
Amanda M. Countryman, Valentyn Litvinov, Ivan Kolodiazhnyi, Mariia Bogonos, Oleg Nivievskyi
{"title":"Global economic effects of war-induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine","authors":"Amanda M. Countryman,&nbsp;Valentyn Litvinov,&nbsp;Ivan Kolodiazhnyi,&nbsp;Mariia Bogonos,&nbsp;Oleg Nivievskyi","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13468","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aepp.13468","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardized the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of war-induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine, given the inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare losses ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly $20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"47 2","pages":"624-665"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aepp.13468","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing the great recession and COVID-19 using Long Short-Term Memory: A close look into agricultural commodity prices 利用长短期记忆比较大衰退和 COVID-19仔细研究农产品价格
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13472
Modhurima Dey Amin, Syed Badruddoza, Oscar Sarasty
{"title":"Comparing the great recession and COVID-19 using Long Short-Term Memory: A close look into agricultural commodity prices","authors":"Modhurima Dey Amin,&nbsp;Syed Badruddoza,&nbsp;Oscar Sarasty","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13472","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aepp.13472","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We employ a neural network (NN) approach—Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—to study agricultural commodity prices during the 2008 Great Recession and the COVID-19 recession. Our analysis reveals more structural breaks and higher volatility in plant-based commodities like corn and soybeans during recessions compared with animal-based commodities. The price reactions varied among commodities, with corn responding first to both recessions, while milk price, which was found independent of other prices, recovered last from the financial recession and first from the disease-induced recession. This insight into commodity behavior during recessions can aid in trend prediction and recession preparation for investors and researchers.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"46 4","pages":"1406-1428"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aepp.13472","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142227304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The EU target for organic farming: Potential economic and environmental impacts of two alternative pathways 欧盟有机农业目标：两种备选途径对经济和环境的潜在影响
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13470
Dimitrios Kremmydas, Caetano Beber, Edoardo Baldoni, Pavel Ciaian, Thomas Fellmann, Alexander Gocht, Jordan Hristov, Davide Pignotti, Dolores Rey Vicario, Davit Stepanyan, Pascal Tillie
{"title":"The EU target for organic farming: Potential economic and environmental impacts of two alternative pathways","authors":"Dimitrios Kremmydas,&nbsp;Caetano Beber,&nbsp;Edoardo Baldoni,&nbsp;Pavel Ciaian,&nbsp;Thomas Fellmann,&nbsp;Alexander Gocht,&nbsp;Jordan Hristov,&nbsp;Davide Pignotti,&nbsp;Dolores Rey Vicario,&nbsp;Davit Stepanyan,&nbsp;Pascal Tillie","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13470","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aepp.13470","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The EU aims to reach 25% of the total agricultural area under organic farming by 2030. Interlinking a farm-level and agro-economic market model, we assess impacts of achieving the target either at Member State or aggregated EU level. Results show that flexible budget allocation across Member States would be more cost-efficient and less detrimental to EU production. Conversely, targeting at Member State level proves more effective in generating greater aggregated and more evenly distributed environmental benefits across EU regions. The results indicate the importance of leveraging tailored approaches to optimize organic farming outcomes across the EU.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"47 2","pages":"602-623"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aepp.13470","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Actuarial implications of prevented planting coverage 种植覆盖率下降的精算影响
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13471
Dylan Turner, Francis Tsiboe, Hunter Biram, Lawson Connor
{"title":"Actuarial implications of prevented planting coverage","authors":"Dylan Turner,&nbsp;Francis Tsiboe,&nbsp;Hunter Biram,&nbsp;Lawson Connor","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13471","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Within the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP), prevented planting (PP) coverage provides payments for pre-planting costs associated with crops that ultimately cannot be planted due to adverse weather. PP indemnities, which are not considered production losses within the FCIP rating methodology, influence premium rates differently than typical losses. This study utilizes a panel data set consisting of approximately 77,697 county level observations from RMA's summary of business to identify the relationship between the prevalence of prevent plant use and a number of actuarial related outcomes. Overall, we find that increases in the share of total indemnities attributable to PP claims over the preceding 10 years produce generally negligible changes to loss ratios, but can significantly increase loss ratios among subsets of the FCIP that heavily utilize PP coverage (greater than 20% of total indemnities). This suggests that, despite loss ratios being robust to typical rates of PP claims, actuarial performance can degrade when PP payments are high relative to indemnities from all other perils. Additionally, a simulation is conducted in which prevent plant indemnities are counterfactually treated as production losses when pricing FCIP contracts as opposed to current practice of recovering prevent plant costs via a fixed rate load. Doing so suggests significant improvements in loss ratios for crops that have historically had high shares of prevent plant indemnities, however, these improvements come at the expense of higher premiums and reduced demand for crop insurance.</p>","PeriodicalId":8004,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","volume":"47 1","pages":"394-415"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aepp.13471","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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