Agricultural Systems最新文献

{"title":"Is the potential stability of forage resources under climate variability linked to transhumance patterns? An approach for sheep farming systems based on vegetation agroecological properties","authors":"Anne-Lyse Murro,&nbsp;Renaud Jaunatre,&nbsp;Emilie Crouzat,&nbsp;Grégory Loucougaray","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Climate change, and in particular increased climate variability, is challenging the functioning of agro-pastoral livestock farms by impacting the availability of forage resources. Transhumant agropastoral systems, based on year-round herd mobility, mobilize a diversity of forage resources across time and space, which can potentially be a key factor in the stability of these forage resources in the face of climatic variability.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This paper presents an original multiscale functional approach to evaluate the role of vegetation for forage resource stability in relation to herd mobility patterns (altitudinal and latitudinal gradients) in transhumant sheep systems (TSS) in the French Alps.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We developed a set of indices that can provide information on forage stability at the farm level. These indices are based on (i) agro-ecological properties (based on the taxonomic and functional composition of vegetation) at the plot level combined at the farm level by the relative area of the plots and the distribution of the values of these indices, and (ii) the diversity of vegetation types within the farm. This approach was implemented on 12 sheep transhumant farms, representing a diversity of mobility gradients. We then measured the relationship between four categories of forage stability indices and herd mobility patterns.</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusions</h3><div>At farm level, we found positive correlations between the diversity of vegetation types and the range of altitudinal mobility, as well as between indices of distribution of vegetation functional characteristics (e.g., mean leaf dry matter content of plots) and the range of latitudinal mobility.</div><div>Our results support the idea that differences in mobility gradients, whether along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients, provide access to different forms of complementarity that contribute to forage resource stability. However, our results also reveal trade-offs at the farm level between different dimensions of forage stability - particularly between productivity-related and those capturing plot's functional complementarity stability indices. Thus, forage resource stability in the face of climatic variability appears to be multidimensional, depending on the combination of different properties carried by the vegetation - no single indicator of forage potential stability prevails across all systems. Our framework highlights various pathways to forage resilience in a context of increasing climate variability.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>This multiscale methodology, combining functional indices and scaling-up processes, offers a transferable framework to assess resource stability. It can be applied beyond transhumant livestock systems and mobilized in research projects addressing the resilience of diverse socio-ecological systems under climate variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104641"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pathogen and pest communities in agroecosystems across climate gradients: Anticipating future challenges in the highland tropics","authors":"Romaric A. Mouafo-Tchinda ,&nbsp;Aaron I. Plex Sulá ,&nbsp;Berea A. Etherton ,&nbsp;Joshua S. Okonya ,&nbsp;Gloria Valentine Nakato ,&nbsp;Yanru Xing ,&nbsp;Jacobo Robledo ,&nbsp;Ashish Adhikari ,&nbsp;Guy Blomme ,&nbsp;Déo Kantungeko ,&nbsp;Anastase Nduwayezu ,&nbsp;Jan F. Kreuze ,&nbsp;Jürgen Kroschel ,&nbsp;James P. Legg ,&nbsp;Karen A. Garrett","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3><em>CONTEXT</em></h3><div>Tropical agricultural systems must respond to current and future pathogen and pest communities. An important research gap is how climate change may shift the geographic distribution of tropical pathogens and pests.</div></div><div><h3><em>OBJECTIVE</em></h3><div>We evaluated the geographic risk of 27 pathogens and pests in four food security crops (banana, cassava, potato, and sweetpotato) in the Great Lakes region of Africa, and potential future risk under climate change. We analyzed model performance for each pathogen and pest, assessing the potential for changes in geographic distribution, and for decision support systems to facilitate management.</div></div><div><h3><em>METHODS</em></h3><div>Cropland connectivity analysis identified locations likely important in the spread of crop-specific pathogens and pests. We surveyed the 27 economically important pathogens and pests in Rwanda and Burundi, mapping the distribution of each across climate gradients and quantifying associations. We used machine learning to model each species as a function of environmental variables, including host landscape. We also evaluated future temperatures across altitudes under climate change scenarios.</div></div><div><h3><em>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</em></h3><div>Among ten algorithms evaluated, random forests and support vector machines generally performed best for predicting severity or infestation. Host landscape variables were useful predictors for some species. Based on climate matching, 44 % of the pathogens and pests could become more common with warmer temperatures at higher altitudes, while 17 % may become less common.</div></div><div><h3><em>SIGNIFICANCE</em></h3><div>These findings indicate how crop health in the region requires adaptation to multiple sustainability challenges. The results also indicate which pathogen and pest species have the potential for development of decision support models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104619"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A biogenic life cycle approach towards estimating the carbon intensity of wool production: Evidence from six Australian case studies","authors":"James Blignaut ,&nbsp;Paul Swan ,&nbsp;Lemuel Blignaut","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Life cycle assessments (LCA) of wool typically associate this natural textile fibre with a high greenhouse gas emissions intensity because of enteric emissions. We analysed the application of 14 LCAs published between 2010 and 2024 and found that they focussed exclusively on emissions, disregarding the fact that wool production is embedded in a biogenic system. ISO 14067:2018 recognises biogenic carbon but has not been applied to wool yet. Here we seek to rectify this.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study explores the application of ISO 14067:2018 to six representative Australian wool enterprises, extending the detailed LCA case study data from <span><span>Wiedemann et al. (2016)</span></span> to define and map the flows of biogenic carbon ingested by grazing sheep. Thereafter we explore the impact of key aspects of system biogenic function on calculated wool emissions intensity within the sheep production system.</div></div><div><h3>Results and Conclusions</h3><div>Mapping of ingested carbon flows across enterprises showed that the major carbon destinations were manure (54.1 %), followed by respiration (22.7 %), urine (7.5 %), and enteric emissions (5.2 %). Exploration of the emissions intensity of wool production showed that while biogenic model outputs closely correlated with those of <span><span>Wiedemann et al. (2016)</span></span> when biogenic carbon was excluded, emissions intensities were reduced by the addition of biogenic functionality, declining by on average 102 % with retention of 66.7 % of manure within the grazing system. We conclude that conducting LCA of biological products without addressing biogenic carbon inflates the emission intensity.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>For the first time, the on-farm cradle-to-farm gate flow of biogenic carbon of Australian greasy wool production are comprehensively analysed in a manner that conforms with ISO 14067:2018; it has a major impact on wool's carbon footprint.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104631"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The yield-biomass-water-environment nexus model unravels the plastic mulching film dilemma: Yield gains vs. environmental cascades in China’s cotton systems","authors":"Yifan Gu ,&nbsp;Zixin Bian ,&nbsp;Qianqian Shi ,&nbsp;Ziyi Zhao ,&nbsp;Haixia Li ,&nbsp;Rui Li ,&nbsp;He Peng ,&nbsp;Ming Yang ,&nbsp;Qingbin Yuan ,&nbsp;Yufeng Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>BACKGROUND</h3><div>Plastic mulching film (PMF) is extensively applied in cotton cultivation to enhance yields, yet its comprehensive environmental consequences remain inadequately quantified.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aims to quantify the multi-dimensional impacts of PMF on cotton production across 18 Chinese provinces by developing a yield–biomass–water–environment (YBWE) nexus analysis model.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Integrating the WOFOST crop model, mixed regression, and life cycle assessment (LCA), we evaluated effects across 35 cross-cutting promotion scenarios, accounting for provincial disparities in natural conditions and agricultural practices.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION</h3><div>PMF promotion is projected to increase China's average cotton yield from 2.41 t/ha to 3.21 t/ha by 2050, with the most significant gains in the northwest inland region. While improving water use efficiency, PMF exacerbates water scarcity in arid areas, increasing consumption by 564.93 t/ha in the northwest. A “V-shaped” PMF residue belt will form, raising aggregate environmental impacts by 74.74 % compared to 2021. Economically, PMF boosts profits—especially in the northwest (up to USD 1890.61/ha)—but over 50 % of provinces face net ecological losses. The optimal scenario couples high-intensity PMF promotion in low-income regions with high-strength PMF application, reducing environmental impacts by over 40 % and avoiding USD 1.83 trillion in ecological costs.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study provides a scientifically supported strategy for PMF promotion that balances yield growth with environmental sustainability, informing policy for coordinated agricultural and ecological development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104614"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the global potential for transition from single to multiple cropping","authors":"Qiankun Niu ,&nbsp;Mika Jalava ,&nbsp;Vilma Sandström ,&nbsp;Kpade O.L. Hounkpatin ,&nbsp;Sina Masoumzadeh Sayyar ,&nbsp;Dandan Zhao ,&nbsp;Matias Heino ,&nbsp;Matti Kummu","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>As part of sustainable crop intensification, multiple cropping has emerged as a promising solution for enhancing agricultural productivity without expanding cropland. Although existing studies have explored conditions required for multiple cropping adoption, a comprehensive, global assessment of the potential for transition from single to multiple cropping remains lacking.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aims to i) identify the most influential determinants affecting global cropping systems from biophysical, agricultural input-related, and socio-economic perspectives; ii) quantify their associations with single versus multiple cropping at 30 arc-min resolution; and iii) assess the potential for adopting multiple cropping on cropland currently under single cropping for maize, wheat, rice, and soybean.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We employed eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to quantify relationships between cropping systems and global variables, including climate, water, environment, agriculture, and socio-economics with consistent temporal coverage (1998–2002). To delineate potential transition zones, we applied K-means clustering to these variable groups across four crops, comparing the similarities and differences in growing conditions in single and multiple cropping systems.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Climate variations and agricultural inputs are the most important sets of variables shaping multiple cropping potential. Single cropping systems on 80 million hectares (8 % of global single-cropped land) could transition to multiple cropping across the four crops. Transition potential is, on average, 35 % higher in irrigated systems than in rainfed systems, and the area suitable for transition is 1.7 times larger in irrigated systems. These areas are concentrated in North America, Southeast Asia, and Southern Europe.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Our findings highlight both promising targets for sustainable intensification and critical data gaps under current climatic conditions, thereby helping to prioritize regions for subsequent, site-specific analysis and targeted interventions toward sustainable food systems under a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104618"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145784899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pilots, proponents and policy windows: How Results-Based Payment Schemes (RBPS) became mainstream in Irish agri-environmental policy","authors":"Boru Douthwaite ,&nbsp;Gary Goggins ,&nbsp;Andy Bleasdale ,&nbsp;Pamela Boyle ,&nbsp;Ciara Carberry ,&nbsp;Patrick Crushell ,&nbsp;Brian Delaney ,&nbsp;Brendan Dunford ,&nbsp;Catherine Keena ,&nbsp;Victoria McArthur ,&nbsp;James Moran ,&nbsp;John Muldowney ,&nbsp;Barry O'Donoghue ,&nbsp;Caroline Sullivan ,&nbsp;Derek McLoughlin","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Prescription-based agri-environmental schemes have demonstrated poor return on investment, prompting exploration of alternative mechanisms including results-based and hybrid approaches. Ireland's decision to mainstream Results-Based agri-environmental Payment Schemes (RBPS) in its 2023–2027 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Strategic Plan represents Europe's largest implementation of RBPS in agricultural policy.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVES</h3><div>To analyze the policy decision-making process behind Ireland's mainstreaming of RBPS, examining how this innovative agri-environmental policy was developed and the factors that enabled its large-scale implementation within the CAP framework.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The study employed three complementary analytical perspectives: historical timeline analysis, complex adaptive systems theory, and policy windows theory. Data collection involved interviews with 14 key stakeholders, a validation workshop and analysis of relevant literature.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>RBPS emerged through a 20-year evolutionary process involving pilot projects, evidence building, and sustained advocacy by a ‘coalition of the willing’. Pilot projects played a crucial role in providing proof of concept, building implementation capacity, and developing methodologies. Policy change resulted from the strategic combination of ongoing advocacy efforts with the effective utilization of policy windows, particularly CAP cycles. However, scaling RBPS nationally presents implementation challenges, especially concerning IT systems and administrative capacity.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This research contributes to understanding how innovative agri-environmental policies can be effectively developed and implemented at scale. Multiple analytical perspectives provide valuable insights for future policy development in complex governance domains. Key recommendations for strengthening future implementation include upgrading technical infrastructure, enhancing farmer engagement, improving training programs, refining payment structures, and better advance planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104621"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145787443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated crop-ruminant livestock systems as a strategy to increase energy, carbon and nutrient circularity: Exploring scenarios in dairy production systems across the southern hemisphere","authors":"Jean Hercher-Pasteur ,&nbsp;Ronaldo Vibart ,&nbsp;Andre Mazzetto ,&nbsp;Maria Paz Tieri ,&nbsp;Claudia Faverin ,&nbsp;Sofia Stirling ,&nbsp;Dirk Wallace ,&nbsp;Verónica Ciganda ,&nbsp;Santiago Fariña ,&nbsp;Alvaro Romera","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>This study investigates the integration potential of crop-livestock systems within dairy production in Uruguay, New Zealand, and Argentina, addressing the dual challenges of increasing food production and enhancing environmental sustainability.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>The objective is to explore integration strategies for dairy farm systems in order to increase food output and circularity, reduce GHG-e, nutrient losses and improve production system resiliency.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We developed a framework and modeled four progressive scenarios for each country's dairy systems, focusing on energy flows, carbon emissions, and nitrogen balance.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The results indicate that higher levels of integration significantly reduce environmental impacts and increase resilience. Specifically, as integration increases, the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) improves due to enhanced self-sufficiency and reduced reliance on external feed sources. For instance, the transition from conventional to ecosystem-based practices led to notable reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, achieving lower carbon footprint through increased diversification and the incorporation of agroforestry. Nitrogen use efficiency also showed marked improvements as nitrogen surpluses decreased across scenarios, primarily due to better management of animal excretions and the integration of crops. Despite the promising outcomes, challenges remain, including farmers' capacity to diversify and the substantial investments in infrastructure and management required to facilitate such transitions.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of integrating crop-livestock systems to address the complexities of sustainable dairy production, while also urging further exploration into practical strategies that can support farmers in adapting to environmental and economic pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104616"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145787827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimising crop calendars with management practices promotes climate-smart agriculture in wheat-maize rotations of the North China Plain","authors":"Deyao Liu ,&nbsp;Baobao Pan ,&nbsp;Huarui Gong ,&nbsp;Jing Li ,&nbsp;Enli Wang ,&nbsp;Jinxi Zhao ,&nbsp;Yan Xu ,&nbsp;Shu Kee Lam ,&nbsp;Deli Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104626","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104626","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Optimising crop calendars by adjusting sowing dates and the timing and frequency of key management practices can enhance crop productivity while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, limited research has explored how farmers dynamically adapt crop calendars and practices in response to climate shifts to support climate-smart agriculture.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study developed a DNDC-based hybrid modelling framework to evaluate adaptive management strategies for supporting climate-smart agriculture under future climate scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We assessed three management levels: fertiliser application rates (level 1); fertiliser rates combined with crop calendar adjustments, including fertiliser timing, frequency, as well as sowing and harvesting dates (level 2) and level 2 plus irrigation and residue retention (level 3). The framework was designed to optimise management under multiple objectives, including increasing crop yield, SOC sequestration, while simultaneously reducing N input and GHG emissions.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>From 1990 to 2100, the optimised crop calendars were identified: delaying wheat basal fertilisation (+5 d,) while advancing top-dressing (−5 d), postponing wheat sowing (+5 d) and advancing maize sowing (−9 d); advancing both fertilisation events in maize (−9 d, −3 d); aligning irrigation with fertilisation; and adding one irrigation event during the maize bell stage. Compared with historical practices, these adjustments increased annual crop yields and NUE by 4.2 % and 15.8 %, respectively, while reducing net GHG emissions and GHG intensity by 5.1 % and 8.5 %, respectively. The optimised management reduced N inputs, irrigation water and residue retention by 17.2 %, 6.7 % and 20.0 %, respectively.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>These findings demonstrate that adaptive crop calendars can significantly advance climate-smart agriculture and should be incorporated into climate change impact assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104626"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145823105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the mitigation potential of greenhouse gas emissions from paddy fields under optimal irrigation and carbon management in the Lake Tai region","authors":"Zewei Jiang ,&nbsp;Shihong Yang ,&nbsp;Qingqing Pang ,&nbsp;Mohamed Abdalla ,&nbsp;Junyi Wang ,&nbsp;Grant A. Campbell ,&nbsp;Pete Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>The synergistic effects of water‑carbon management on greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation across regional paddy fields remains unclear. A critical knowledge gap exists in evaluating trade-offs between regional GHG reduction, carbon sequestration, and agronomic outcomes under climate-smart practices.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>The objectives are to: (1) quantify the spatio-temporal mitigation potential of optimized irrigation and carbon management, including straw return, manure, and biochar, from paddies in the Lake Tai region, China; (2) investigate historical (2000-2020) and future 80-year climate scenarios; (3) propose optimal water-carbon management strategies for climate adaptation.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The DeNitrification DeComposition Biochar-Controlled Irrigation (DNDC-BC) model was calibrated and validated against observed GHG emissions, soil organic carbon (SOC), and rice yield. Regional simulations incorporated spatial datasets (meteorological, topography, soil, and management) and CMIP6 climate projections. Additionally, system-level sustainability was evaluated using TOPSIS analysis integrating GHG emissions, rice yield, and SOC.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Results demonstrated that DNDC-BC performed well in identifying GHG emission hotspots and accurately predicting SOC levels and rice yield. The cumulative methane (CH₄) emissions from paddies in the Lake Tai region over the past two decades was 281.73 Gg. As a result of urbanization and atmospheric deposition, total CH₄ emissions have declined, while total nitrogen oxide (N₂O) emissions fluctuated between 5 and 6 Gg. Under both historical and future climate change conditions, biochar application (CB_20; 20 t ha⁻¹) with controlled irrigation (CI), has the best mitigation potential. The emission reduction ratio for CH₄ was between 23.53%–57.44%.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Overall, the combination of CI and biochar amendment is recommended at a regional scale for its potential to mitigate GHG emissions, enhance carbon sequestration, reduce irrigation water use, and improve rice yields. However, the economic feasibility of implementing this strategy should be carefully considered when promoting it at scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104646"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146034409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-design of crop monitoring-modeling systems via identifiability analysis","authors":"Pratishtha Poudel ,&nbsp;Stephen M. Welch ,&nbsp;Phillip D. Alderman ,&nbsp;Xiaomao Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104613","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104613","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Context:&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Crop yield increases are lagging those required to avoid major mid-century food security disruptions. Skilled models are needed to predict environment-specific cropping outcomes for applications ranging from accelerating breeding program gain rates via efficient selection to sustainable, in-field production decision-making that incorporate genetic &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; environment &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; management interactions. In an attractive vision, genotype-specific ecophysiological crop model parameters are inferred by genomic prediction. However, these parameters are often unidentifiable from typically observed data, also known as the equifinality problem. This is because wide parameter value ranges generate identical predictions so alternative estimates are indistinguishable and, thus, unusable in genomic prediction training.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Objective:&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Given a model with parameters, a prescribed data scheme and goodness-of-fit objective function this paper introduces a method to measure identifiability and semi-automate its improvement.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods:&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Identifiability is innovatively quantified as the objective function’s Gaussian curvature at the parameter optimum. Higher values indicate a more easily searchable, bowl-like objective function response surface. Lower values imply a flatness that prevents unique parameter value identification.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;A simplified, seven-parameter wheat model is analyzed, revealing two nearly unidentifiable parameters. Three analyses are presented: (1) increasing observation numbers, (2) adding a new observation type, and (3) automatically determining two parameters whose direct field measurement would maximally increase Gaussian curvature.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Results and conclusions:&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Two nearly unidentifiable parameters – Thermal time to end of leaf expansion (TTL) and thermal time to maturity (TTM) – were revealed. Analyses (2) and (3) drastically improved identifiability. After adding the new observation type (physiological maturity), Gaussian curvature increased by a factor of 7600. Likewise, when we fixed the values of the two parameters, the Gaussian curvature increased by a factor of &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;.&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;69&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;11&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. Surprisingly, however, increasing observation numbers lowered identifiability for reasons related to the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency objective function variant used. Relatedly, because the method is formally objective function agnostic, it can also ameliorate any non-uniqueness in model-based production decision aids that optimize economic objectives while integrating a full suite of in-field interactions.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Significance:&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The demonstrated ability to maximize identifiability by optimizing both the data taken and model structure prior to actual field","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104613"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145734261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}